Raves Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: 15 minutes ago, AKRNA said: Whats surprising is that Dak has more game winning drives in the last three years than any of the QB's you mentioned. I was pretty surprised but it's true. 14 GWD in his first three years. Thats almost the definition of carrying a team. No it isn’t. GWDs are an extremely flawed statistic in and of itself, I don’t even know why it’s tracked. It’s incredibly reliant on a string of things occurring, and even then, it’s tracked weirdly. For instance, you can have a GWD on the first play of the 4th quarter and that will count as a GWD on your ledger. That includes kickers taking the league or running backs slamming the ball into the end zone. To even get to that point, you have to be in a tight game - which right off the bat, penalizes teams that are dominant against their opponents. QB1 might have 14 GWDs compared to QB2’s 3 GWDs, but that could be because QB2 puts his team up by 4 TDs before the 4th quarter. A GWD%, that measures how often a QB can successfully lead the offense to score & take the league on a success/opportunity basis, would be much more telling. That's a stat I would like to see. If on your last possession of the game when trailing by <= 1 score or tied, how often of those situations were you able to drive your team to the victory or to tie the game up. I use last possession because you could lead your team on what would/should be counted as a GWD, only for the opposing team to drive down the field and win the game as time expires because the defense couldn't hold, which happens a lot in the NFL. My criteria still isn't perfect, but it's better than what we currently have. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 19 minutes ago, AKRNA said: Whats surprising is that Dak has more game winning drives in the last three years than any of the QB's you mentioned. I was pretty surprised but it's true. 14 GWD in his first three years. Thats almost the definition of carrying a team. Whats even more impressive is that he has had the 8th fewest opportunities in the NFL over that time. 12 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: No it isn’t. GWDs are an extremely flawed statistic in and of itself, I don’t even know why it’s tracked. It’s incredibly reliant on a string of things occurring, and even then, it’s tracked weirdly. For instance, you can have a GWD on the first play of the 4th quarter and that will count as a GWD on your ledger. That includes kickers taking the league or running backs slamming the ball into the end zone. To even get to that point, you have to be in a tight game - which right off the bat, penalizes teams that are dominant against their opponents. QB1 might have 14 GWDs compared to QB2’s 3 GWDs, but that could be because QB2 puts his team up by 4 TDs before the 4th quarter. QBs/offenses that maintain a lead can’t accumulate GWDs. A GWD%, that measures how often a QB can successfully lead the offense to score & take the league on a success/opportunity basis, would be much more telling. But even then, that doesn’t describe how much weight a QB is pulling. It’s more of a measurement of how successful an offense can be in tight situations (which can still be misleading, looking at how long the field is they have to travel, and at what point in the 4th did the lead get taken). All of this might have some validity if it wasnt for the fact that Dak is the *highest* rated QB in tied in the 4th/OT in the last 25 years. Dak throws the team on his back regularly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, Raves said: That's a stat I would like to see. If on your last possession of the game when trailing by <= 1 score or tied, how often of those situations were you able to drive your team to the victory or to tie the game up. I use last possession because you could lead your team on what would/should be counted as a GWD, only for the opposing team to drive down the field and win the game as time expires because the defense couldn't hold, which happens a lot in the NFL. My criteria still isn't perfect, but it's better than what we currently have. I just posted it for you. Dak is #1 in the NFL on the 8th fewest opportunities. IE - he is clutch as hell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 (edited) 23 minutes ago, AKRNA said: I don't think Dak could carry a team with problems in others areas to the playoffs like I think Rivers, Brees, Brady, Rodger, Mahomes, Big Ben, Luck, and Wilson can/could. I have more faith in Watson and Baker being those players. Do you have any sources/stats/information/anything to back up your thoughts? Or is it kinda just arbitrary gut feeling? Edited August 16, 2019 by Matts4313 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raves Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Matts4313 said: I just posted it for you. Dak is #1 in the NFL on the 8th fewest opportunities. IE - he is clutch as hell. Where is this found at? You said it, but I do like to verify sources, no offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raves Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Matts4313 said: Do you have any sources/stats/information/anything to back up your thoughts? Or is it kinda just arbitrary gut feeling? Well I pointed out hte sub 5.0 TD% previously and the lower A/Y, ANY/A etc than those other qbs listed as well as why feel like they were more capable of doing so. I also listed there numbers elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Raves said: Where is this found at? You said it, but I do like to verify sources, no offense. tweet. I saw it last night as I put together a 1 stop post to discredit dak haters. Let me see if I can find it again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raves Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Matts4313 said: tweet. I saw it last night as I put together a 1 stop post to discredit dak haters. Let me see if I can find it again. Sweet thanks. Sometimes it's hard to weed through all the stats and articles that lists stats and their biases in them, like that Eagles one that had good info but also a lot of biased arguments in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: All of this might have some validity if it wasnt for the fact that Dak is the *highest* rated QB in tied in the 4th/OT in the last 25 years. Dak throws the team on his back regularly. Okay. That quite literally has nothing to do with what I said regarding the merit of a GWD stat or how useful it is in determining how much any given QB carries said drive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Raves said: Sweet thanks. Sometimes it's hard to weed through all the stats and articles that lists stats and their biases in them, like that Eagles one that had good info but also a lot of biased arguments in it. 10 hours ago, Matts4313 said: Definitive Guide to Defending Dak to the Haters Step 1 - Show that he is pretty good: Daks league-wide rankings in 2016-18, 32 games played minimum 8th in passer rating 11th in ANY/A 6th in CMP% 5th in INTs 7th in combined TDs 2nd in wins 1st in GWD PFR Step 2 - Refute "the best supporting cast ever" argument: Starting Falcons '17 through 2018 the pressure rate on Dak DOUBLED F.O. ranked us the #28 worst pass blocking OL in 2018 PFF ranked us #22 pass blocking OL in 2018, but the 27th worst at giving up sacks/pressures NFL.com rated our WR's DEAD LAST at getting open in 2018, excluding Amari Cooper Zeke was #22 in facing a stacked box (25% of the time). The notion that "Dak has it easy because defenses focus on Zeke" is verifiable false. Step 3 - Show how the above affected him: Source 1 Source 2 Step 4 - If they bring up Romo: Prescott’s stats 2016-18: 96 passer rating, 66.1% completion percentage, 67 passing touchdowns, 7.52 adjusted yards per attempt Tony Romo’s stats 2010-12: 95.7 passer rating, 66.4% completion percentage, 70 passing touchdowns, 7.57 adjusted yards per attempt Source Step 5 - Accolades: Rookie of the Year (2016) 32-16 regular season record 1-2 playoff record Been to Divisional Round twice 2 NFC East titles 2-Time Pro Bowler First player in NFL history with 20+ passing TDs & 5+ rushing TDs in each of his first 3 seasons 7th most wins all time for a 3rd year QB 5th most TDs all time for a 3rd year QB Highest passer rating when tied in the 4th/overtime in the past 25 years Most game winning drives since entering the league on the 8th fewest opportunities Step 6 - the Meme: Explain that you know he isnt worth $40m/yr. Thats not the point. The point is that he is a franchise QB and deserves a contract that pays him as such. Here ya go: And as an added Bonus: Highest passer rating since 1994 when tied in the 4th/OT (minimum 50 pass attempts): Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 19 minutes ago, Raves said: That's a stat I would like to see. If on your last possession of the game when trailing by <= 1 score or tied, how often of those situations were you able to drive your team to the victory or to tie the game up. I use last possession because you could lead your team on what would/should be counted as a GWD, only for the opposing team to drive down the field and win the game as time expires because the defense couldn't hold, which happens a lot in the NFL. My criteria still isn't perfect, but it's better than what we currently have. It’ll never be perfect. How long was the field? Did you start with the ball in the red zone or deep in your own territory? How much time is on the clock? How many timeouts do you have once you get the ball? How good is the coach at clock management? Why are you in a position to be in this scenario in the first place: is it a high octane bloodbath or is the first score of the game going to be the last? It’s dicey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: Okay. That quite literally has nothing to do with what I said regarding the merit of a GWD stat or how useful it is in determining how much any given QB carries said drive. Did you read the response to the other guy? I grouped them together to address both points. Dak is: Top tier when he has the lead Tops when he is tied (for the past 25 years) Tops when he needs a game winning drive Tops at not putting his team in the position of needing a GWD. Edited August 16, 2019 by Matts4313 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 Just now, Matts4313 said: Did you read the response to the other guy? I grouped them together to address both points. Dak is: Top tier when he has the lead Tops when he is tied (for the past 25 years) Tops when he needs a game winning drive My quote doesn’t address Dak. It addresses GWDs. Nothing you said about Dak has anything to do with the validity of GWDs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 Just now, Yin-Yang said: My quote doesn’t address Dak. It addresses GWDs. Nothing you said about Dak has anything to do with the validity of GWDs. Check the edit. I didnt finish my post before hitting submit. also read the big post and all the tweets to verify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Matts4313 said: Check the edit. I didnt finish my post before hitting submit. also read the big post and all the tweets to verify. You’re not getting it. The post you quoted has nothing to do with Prescott. It has to do with GWDs. You didn’t invalidate a thing I said because you think I’m talking about Dak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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