Dak Thread....still debating, beating a dead horse

[cowboyfanin2890]

1 hour ago, The_Slamman said:

Im about to spew some truth to all of you.  @Matts4313, get your tissues ready cause this is about to get silly.  

 

So, this thread now has 120+ pages of graphs and cherry picked stats.  Here’s the truth.  Dak wants to be the highest paid QB in the history of the NFL and has turned down $175M.  The guys who are desperate to ride Dak’s Dak are so proud of his stats, graphs, value over replacement, etc which is really a lot of overblown nonsense.  
 

here it is... Dak played 6 games against the absolute worst teams in the NFL last year.  We are talking about teams drafting in the top 5 of the draft.  Does everyone realize that 19 of Dak’s 30 TD passes came against the redskins (#2 pick in draft), Lions (#3 pick in draft), Giants (#4 pick in draft), and dolphins (#5 pick in the draft)?  And, Dak only threw 3 INTs in those games. If you simply remove those 6 games against the bottom feeders of the NFL, Dak’s stats suddenly become VERY below average.  
 

In those other 10 games Dak threw 11 TDs and 8 INTs.  Let me repeat that for everyone... in the 10 games where Dak did NOT play against bottom 5 teams, DAK threw only 11 td passes and had 8 ints!!!

 

Now get this... Jameis Winston ( the guy who signed with the saints for $1.1M this season which happens to be $34M less per year than the contract Dak turned down) put up nearly identical stats against those teams.  Jameis was 23/37 for 380 yards with 3 tds and 1 int against the giants.  Jameis was 28/42 for 458 yards with 4 tds and 1 int against the lions.  But wait... it gets better!  Case Keenun and Dwayne Haskins combined to throw 28/37 for 302 yards with 3 TDs and 0 ints against the giants.   
 

Daniel Jones threw for 28/42 for 352 w/ 5 TDS and 0 ints against the redskins.  Jones also went 28/41 for 322 yards with 4 tds and 0 ints against the lions.  
 

Our own Andy Dalton went 33/56 for 396 yards w/ 4 TDs and 0 ints against the dolphins.  
 

guys, it’s not hard for below average QBs to put up impressive stats in 6 games against bottom 5 teams.  Dak did what what lots of other below average QBs did against the giants, redskins, dolphins and lions.  It’s really not that impressive.  Against non bottom 5 teams, Dak was well below average... 10 games, 11 TDs and 8 ints.  I’ll just close with this... case Keenum and Mason Rudolph both played in 10 games last year.  In those 10 games, case threw for 11 TDS and 5 ints (got benched).  Mason Rudolph in 10 games with 13 TDs and 9 ints (got smacked).  
 

Dak turned down $35M+ a year.  Jameis Winston will play for $1.1M next year.  The line between those 2 is razor thin.  Hell, I’ll say... give me Jameis plus $34M in cap space and I will give you a team far better than the cowboys as currently constituted with Dak.

Awesome post and stats. I think Dak is crazy leaving the money on the table seeing how Winston and Newton(who was labeled the best new QB many times) both will be playing for a lot less. 

[Matts4313]

7 hours ago, DaBoys said:

Wow 

Really not that strange. As of October there were only 3 QBS in the ENTIRE NFL that had winning records against winning teams. Brady, Ben, Wilson. Thats it. 

PS: Wins are not a QB stat. I list it because fans are silly and insist it is, but its not. 

6 hours ago, quiller said:

same numbers for Wentz

Washington NYG  12-3

everyone else 20-21

To back this up, here is from before last season. Dont have an season ending update:

5 hours ago, DaBoys said:

Our defense was trash in 2019, but what role does the offense play in this? Was our defense horrible right out of the gate or did they wear down after being on the field to long? Probably a little of both.

This might be the most cherry picked stat I have ever seen in my life. Well done for creating your own classification of crazy weird stat. 

4 hours ago, DaBoys said:

 

In our 8 losses our average score was 17.125

Thats simply not enough points in the NFL to win games. Our defense allowed 23.125 pints per loss. That’s not horrible. Not great. But not as atrocious as some would have you believe. 
 

Everyone wants to blame the defense and special teams, but in our actual losses, the offense crapped the bed in every game except the Vikings loss.

Do you understand the symbiotic relationship of Off, Def and ST? And if you do, then why is this argument is terrible? If you dont, I can explain it. Start with this: Field position

3 hours ago, The_Slamman said:

The line between those 2 is razor thin.  Hell, I’ll say... give me Jameis plus $34M in cap space and I will give you a team far better than the cowboys as currently constituted with Dak.

Jameis threw for 30 INTs and had 17 more dropped INTs. His adjusted INT rate was almost 50. Thats 3 INTs per a game. This is getting sad Slam. 

PS: I noticed you went the 5x10 route of excluding his rushing TDs. 

[DaBoys]

According to Matt’s our offense averaging 17 points in our losses is a cherry picked stat. Sometimes I think his phone autocorrects “Man, you know, you are right.” To “You cherry picked!”

[DaBoys]

His record of 27-21 isn’t just against winning teams. It’s EVERYONE that isn’t the Giants and Redskins. 

[TheGame316]

12 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

According to Matt’s our offense averaging 17 points in our losses is a cherry picked stat. Sometimes I think his phone autocorrects “Man, you know, you are right.” To “You cherry picked!”

Matts "Cherry Pick" 4313 calling people out for cherry picking is the richest thing on these 122 pages

[Matts4313]

27 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

According to Matt’s our offense averaging 17 points in our losses is a cherry picked stat. Sometimes I think his phone autocorrects “Man, you know, you are right.” To “You cherry picked!”

You know damn well I was referring to the "points scored in first 3 quarters" stat. Most all of our losses were 1 score. Most all of our losses the TOP was very close. Average NFL score is between 20-23 points, pending the year. IIRC we missed 10 field goals in our 8 losses - - So our offense was average. And that was with no help whatsoever from the defense and special teams. 

26 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

His record of 27-21 isn’t just against winning teams. It’s EVERYONE that isn’t the Giants and Redskins. 

Cool? Thats a .56 winning record. Again, a team stat, but thats not bad. So to recap:

Dak has a good win % as part of the Dallas Cowboy *TEAM*

Dak has one of the higher win % against teams with a winning record, as a *TEAM*

Dak has a pretty good record against teams not call Redskins or Giants (LMAO CHERRY PICK) as a *TEAM*

And he did all that with middle to bad defenses and special teams for all 4 years. 

Edited May 29, 2020 by Matts4313

[DaBoys]

I DO agree wins are not a QB stat. I’ve been arguing that for 3 years now. And you can’t deny it isn’t the Dak haters that religiously cite the win loss record of the Cowboys the last 4 years. 
 

 

[plan9misfit]

Well, now that we know how poorly #4 plays against teams not picking in the top 5 of this year’s draft, I wonder what the former #17’s numbers were against similar competition before Parcells dumped him.

[Matts4313]

14 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

I DO agree wins are not a QB stat. I’ve been arguing that for 3 years now. And you can’t deny it isn’t the Dak haters that religiously cite the win loss record of the Cowboys the last 4 years. 
 

 

No its very clear. When we win (go 13-3) its a team stat. When we dont (go 8-8) wins are a QB stat.

Its completely obvious. Just read the thread.

3 minutes ago, plan9misfit said:

Well, now that we know how poorly #4 plays against teams not picking in the top 5 of this year’s draft, I wonder what the former #17’s numbers were against similar competition before Parcells dumped him.

Dak has 4 years history, including 3 playoff games. Trying to cherry pick him down to 20% of his games played is really dumb.

Dak plays well against good teams. 

[Matts4313]

5 hours ago, The_Slamman said:

here it is... Dak played 6 games against the absolute worst teams in the NFL last year.  We are talking about teams drafting in the top 5 of the draft.  Does everyone realize that 19 of Dak’s 30 TD passes came against the redskins (#2 pick in draft), Lions (#3 pick in draft), Giants (#4 pick in draft), and dolphins (#5 pick in the draft)?  And, Dak only threw 3 INTs in those games. If you simply remove those 6 games against the bottom feeders of the NFL, Dak’s stats suddenly become VERY below average.  
 

In those other 10 games Dak threw 11 TDs and 8 INTs.  Let me repeat that for everyone... in the 10 games where Dak did NOT play against bottom 5 teams, DAK threw only 11 td passes and had 8 ints!!!

 

In those other 10 games Dak had roughly a 65% comp, 300 yards a game, 13 total TDs, 8 INTs (4 of them bounced off a WRS hand, 2 of them were game ending hailmarys - so 2 INTS that were Daks Fault in 10 games). 

 

Its funny how if you look at the facts your argument turns right back into dogsheet. 

[quiller]

I just want to add one more thing to this fire storm of fun.  I expect it’s 50/50 right now Dak gets signed for around 36-37 mil and 5 years which makes him the highest paid player for bout 1 year maybe then he will drop real quick to no 3 then 4 and by the time his contract is over not even close tot the top 10.  That is the nature of things.  Looking at his peers he deserves a higher contract then Wentz and  as equal as Goff, I say more. I would also say he deserves more then Watson but that most likely isn’t gonna happen.  
 

IMO it is he deserves more then Watson that has created this problem.   No way does Dak or his agent and rightfully so in some ways feels it’s fair Dak signs his contract and then less a year later his contract is then totally blown away by Watson.   
 

I also want to see how Jackson does this year.   Does he again put up  43 total TD’s like last year.   He had crazy passing number of TD’s based on his other numbers   Comp % 66 Dak 65. Yards per 7.8 Dak 8.2. The wild thing though is 200 less attempts then Dak !!!!  Getting 6 more TD’s with almost the same numbers other wise is crazy   Oh while yeah Jackson had 5 less interceptions-  he also fumbled 6 more times then Dak.   BUT YES Jackson had a way way better year over all then Dak but will he get so many TD’s next year and will he be able to get the yards rushing again who knows but he sure struggled big time in the playoffs.   Either way he also will get a even bigger contract and if I am Dak’s agent I would point out Dak had a better first two years in the league then Jackson so far (3 more TD’s scored running passing 7 less total turn overs between fumbles and interceptions)  also as a side note—-

the last two years Dak has scored 7 more TD’s  and turned it over 2 less times.  And Jackson was a MVP during that time!!!
 

oh in the playoffs 

Jackson 0-2. 51.1% 279.5 Yards 6.4 avg 3 TD  3 int 3 fum   71 approx rating and 85 yards rushing 

Dak. 1-2 64.1 % 264.7 yards 7.7 avg 5 TD  2 int 0 fum 95 approx rating   And 45 yards  rushing and 2 more rushing TD’s

To me give me Dak all day not even close !!!      So yeah it would sting to see Jackson get a lot bigger contract then me !!!! Based in those numbers !!!!

Edited May 29, 2020 by quiller

[DaBoys]

I don’t care if you think points scored in the first 3 quarters is cherry picked or not.

 

averaging 7.8 points per game in the first three quarters IS NOT GOOD.

[The_Slamman]

4 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Jameis threw for 30 INTs and had 17 more dropped INTs. His adjusted INT rate was almost 50. Thats 3 INTs per a game. This is getting sad Slam. 

PS: I noticed you went the 5x10 route of excluding his rushing TDs. 

Sweet, little Matts... still trying to salvage hope for an average QB trying to be paid the highest contract in the history of the NFL.  It's cute.  Here's the nail in the coffin:

I'm making as close to an apples to apples comparison as possible.  Jameis and Dak played in 4 games with same opponents.  For example, both Jameis and Dak played @ New Orleans in 2019.  They both played at home against the Giants.  They both played on the road against Detroit.  Then, Dak played at home against the rams while Jameis played on the road against the Rams.  Apples to apples.  Keeping in mind that Dak played behind one of the best OLs in the NFL in 2019 while Jameis played behind one of the worst.  Without giving you the names of the QB... you tell me which QB $34M per year better than the other? 

 

QB #1

94/147 for 1,427 yards with 13 TDs, 3 Ints and 9.71 YPA

 

QB #2

91/134 for 1,284 yards with 9 TDs, 1 Int and 9.58 YPA

 

So, Matts, please enlighten us... which of these 2 QBs in an apples to apples comparison is the $35M+ QB per year and which one is the $1.1M QB?  And, what exactly do you see that makes one QB entitled to $34M more per year?

 

For what its worth, in these same games Dak ran the ball 18 times for 49 yards while Jameis ran 10 times for 19 yards.  These number may include kneel downs.  Neither ran for a rushing TD in these games.

 

Edited May 29, 2020 by The_Slamman

[Matts4313]

1 minute ago, The_Slamman said:

Sweet, little Matts... still trying to salvage hope for an average QB trying to be paid the highest contract in the history of the NFL.  It's cute.  Here's the nail in the coffin:

I'm making as close to an apples to apples comparison as possible.  Jameis and Dak played in 4 games with same opponents.  For example, both Jameis and Dak played @ New Orleans in 2019.  They both played at home against the Giants.  They both played on the road against Detroit.  Then, Dak played at home against the rams while Jameis played on the road against the Rams.  Apples to apples.  Keeping in mind that Dak played behind one of the best OLs in the NFL in 2019 while Jameis played behind one of the worst.  Without giving you the names of the QB... you tell me which QB $34M per year better than the other? 

 

QB #1

94/147 for 1,427 yards with 13 TDs, 3 Ints and 9.71 YPA

 

QB #2

91/134 for 1,284 yards with 9 TDs, 1 Int and 9.58 YPA

 

So, Matts, please enlighten us... which of these 2 QBs in an apples to apples comparison is the $35M+ QB per year and which one is the $1.1M QB?  And, what exactly do you see that makes one QB entitled to $34M more per year?

 

For what its worth, in these same games Dak ran the ball 18 times for 49 yards while Jameis ran 10 times for 19 yards.  These number may include kneel downs.  

 

Im not boiling a 4 year career into a 4 game sample size. Especially when Jamies led the NFL in bulk stats last year. Its a false narrative and I refuse to play your silly game. 

[The_Slamman]

1 minute ago, Matts4313 said:

Im not boiling a 4 year career into a 4 game sample size. Especially when Jamies led the NFL in bulk stats last year. Its a false narrative and I refuse to play your silly game. 

Cause its a game you will lose.  It's apples to apples.  Again, any average to below average QB can put up great stats against bad teams.  Dak had the advantage of having one of the best OL in the NFL.  Jameis had one of the worst.  Yet, head to head against the same teams... they are basically equal.  Yet, one QB got run out of town and the other turned down $175M.  

The simple truth is that when Dak isn't playing against the absolute weaklings of the NFL, he's on par with Case Keenum and Mason Rudolph.