Dak Thread....still debating, beating a dead horse

[Matts4313]

23 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

Cause its a game you will lose.  It's apples to apples.  Again, any average to below average QB can put up great stats against bad teams.  Dak had the advantage of having one of the best OL in the NFL.  Jameis had one of the worst.  Yet, head to head against the same teams... they are basically equal.  Yet, one QB got run out of town and the other turned down $175M.  

No, its a cherry picked 4 game sample size where both QBs played well. It also ignores that the Bucs receiving options/coaching were better. Additionally, the Cowboys OL was ranked 4th (PFF). The Bucs OL was ranked 7th. So you are flat out lying. 

23 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

The simple truth is that when Dak isn't playing against the absolute weaklings of the NFL, he's on par with Case Keenum and Mason Rudolph.  

This is more nonsense lies. I already disproved this on a 1 year and 4 year sample size. 

[The_Slamman]

4 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

No, its a cherry picked 4 game sample size where both QBs played well. It also ignores that the Bucs receiving options/coaching were better. Additionally, the Cowboys OL was ranked 4th (PFF). The Bucs OL was ranked 7th. So you are flat out lying. 

This is more nonsense lies. I already disproved this on a 1 year and 4 year sample size. 

Wrong again, my delusional friend... 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/offensive-line/2019

 

Dallas was ranked 2nd in both run blocking and pass protection.  TB was ranked 23 in run blocking and 22 in pass protection.  NEXT!!!

[Matts4313]

3 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

Wrong again, my delusional friend... 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/offensive-line/2019

 

Dallas was ranked 2nd in both run blocking and pass protection.  TB was ranked 23 in run blocking and 22 in pass protection.  NEXT!!!

Wrong again, my delusional friend... 

FO uses sacks as their primary measurement for pass pro. Dak was extremely good about not getting sacked this year (as well as the line). That said PFF has the Bucs 7th. ESPN has the bucs ranked #3 in pass block win rate. Both of them are more comprehensive than F.O. - which again - is just sacks. 

NEXT!!!

[The_Slamman]

3 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Wrong again, my delusional friend... 

FO uses sacks as their primary measurement for pass pro. Dak was extremely good about not getting sacked this year (as well as the line). That said PFF has the Bucs 7th. ESPN has the bucs ranked #3 in pass block win rate. Both of them are more comprehensive than F.O. - which again - is just sacks. 

NEXT!!!

Here you go...

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-time-to-throw

 

Let's get real specific.  Dak averaged 2.88 seconds for time to throw.  This ranked 6th in the NFL.  Jameis averaged 2.77 seconds for time to throw.  This ranked 25th in the NFL.  This is too easy.  Like I said...   NEXT!!!

[Matts4313]

3 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

Here you go...

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-time-to-throw

 

Let's get real specific.  Dak averaged 2.88 seconds for time to throw.  This ranked 6th in the NFL.  Jameis averaged 2.77 seconds for time to throw.  This ranked 25th in the NFL.  This is too easy.  Like I said...   NEXT!!!

This didnt help your argument at all? You might want to try again, you just made my case for me. But we will rewind. PFF says they are #7. ESPN says they are #3 at pass blocking. We are talking about the OL... Right?

 

All the next gen stats shows is *exactly* what I said. Dak was better at avoiding sacks. So thank you for proving once again Dak>>>>Jameis. 

Edited May 29, 2020 by Matts4313

[5x10]

Dalton could step in and there wouldn’t be much of a drop off

[The_Slamman]

8 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

This didnt help your argument at all? You might want to try again, you just made my case for me. But we will rewind. PFF says they are #7. ESPN says they are #3 at pass blocking. We are talking about the OL... Right?

 

All the next gen stats shows is *exactly* what I said. Dak was better at avoiding sacks. So thank you for proving once again Dak>>>>Jameis. 

Actually, ESPN says very differently...

 

Team Pass Block Win Rate

1. Green Bay Packers, 72%
2. Baltimore Ravens, 69%
3. Indianapolis Colts, 65%
4. Tennessee Titans, 63%
5. Oakland Raiders, 63%
6. Cleveland Browns, 63%
7. Pittsburgh Steelers, 62%
8. Houston Texans, 62%
9. Buffalo Bills, 62%
10. Arizona Cardinals, 62%
11. Dallas Cowboys, 61%
12. New York Giants, 61%
13. Chicago Bears, 61%
14. Kansas City Chiefs, 60%
15. Detroit Lions, 59%
16. New York Jets, 59%
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 58%

 

You confuse pass "blocking" and pass "rushing."  

 

And, just to show the utter stupidity of your comment... Kirk Cousins averaged over 3 second in time to throw.  So, by your way of thinking Kirk Cousins, Jacoby Brissett, and Sam Darnold are the most elusive QBs in avoiding pass rush in the NFL?  Right!!!  

 

Matts, it's okay.  I know you are struggling with this mentally and emotionally.  Dak plays really well against horrible, bottom 5 weaklings.  Most NFL QBs do.  Dak is below average against everyone else.  10 games, 11 TDs, 8 ints which is actually worse than Mason Rudolph and Case Keenum over their 10 game stretches.  The difference is that those other QBs in Dak's peer group (average NFL QBs) understand their value, got benched, or moved on to different teams at a reasonable rate.  Dak is going the other route.  He's trying to become the highest paid QB in the history of the NFL when in an apples to apples to comparison to Jameis Winston... they are statistically equal (or Winston is slightly better).

Edited May 29, 2020 by The_Slamman

[Matts4313]

2 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

Actually, ESPN says very differently...

 

Team Pass Block Win Rate

1. Green Bay Packers, 72%
2. Baltimore Ravens, 69%
3. Indianapolis Colts, 65%
4. Tennessee Titans, 63%
5. Oakland Raiders, 63%
6. Cleveland Browns, 63%
7. Pittsburgh Steelers, 62%
8. Houston Texans, 62%
9. Buffalo Bills, 62%
10. Arizona Cardinals, 62%
11. Dallas Cowboys, 61%
12. New York Giants, 61%
13. Chicago Bears, 61%
14. Kansas City Chiefs, 60%
15. Detroit Lions, 59%
16. New York Jets, 59%
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 58%

 

You confuse pass "blocking" and pass "rushing."  And, I will NEVER

Whoops. You re right, I was looking at the rush stat. Looks like Dallas and Bucs are stil pretty close. On ~500 drop backs, we did better on 10 plays all season.

Def not "Elite" and "terrible" like you claimed. More like "both middle tier".

[The_Slamman]

30 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Whoops. You re right, I was looking at the rush stat. Looks like Dallas and Bucs are stil pretty close. On ~500 drop backs, we did better on 10 plays all season.

Def not "Elite" and "terrible" like you claimed. More like "both middle tier".

The football outsiders numbers don't lie.  They are not subjective "win" rates.  According to ESPN, Dallas was the BEST pass rushing team in the NFL last year.  We all know that's a load of crap.  Maliek Collins was the 4th best inside pass rusher in the NFL???  BS.  Pittsburgh had 54 sacks but ranked 6th in pass rush win rate.  Dallas ranked 1st but only had 39 sacks.  

 

And, obviously, Dallas had major problems on defense last year.  As we all know... the run game absolute does NOT matter.  So, rush defense does NOT matter either.  The only thing that matters is passing efficiency in determining wins and losses.  Yet Dallas had the best pass rush win rate (#1 in the NFL) and the 11th best pass pass block rate in the NFL according to ESPN.  So, when we are talking about the only thing that matters for wins and losses... Dallas should have been a SB contender last year.  Too bad our QB couldn't take advantage of such great pass rushing and above average pass blocking.

Edited May 29, 2020 by The_Slamman

[Matts4313]

2 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

The football outsiders numbers don't lie.  They are not subjective "win" rates.  According to ESPN, Dallas was the BEST pass rushing team in the NFL last year.  We all know that's a load of crap.  Maliek Collins was the 4th best inside pass rusher in the NFL???  BS.  Pittsburgh had 54 sacks but ranked 6th in pass rush win rate.  Dallas ranked 1st but only had 39 sacks.  

Maybe you should attempt to understand what you are looking at before trying to discredit it. Would you like me to explain it to you? And again, FO is just a ranking of sacks. 

2 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

And, obviously, Dallas had major problems on defense last year.  As we all know... the run game absolute does NOT matter.  So, rush defense does NOT matter either. 

You still dont understand that thread. Would you like me to explain it to you again?

2 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

The only thing that matters is passing efficiency in determining wins and losses.  Yet Dallas had the best pass rush win rate (#1 in the NFL) and the 11th best pass pass block rate in the NFL according to ESPN.  So, when we are talking about the only thing that matters for wins and losses... Dallas should have been a SB contender last year.  Too bad our QB couldn't take advantage of such great pass rushing and above average pass blocking.

So now you are combining one argument/dataset you dont understand with another set of data you dont understand? 

Thats an impressive level of ignorance. 

[The_Slamman]

2 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Maybe you should attempt to understand what you are looking at before trying to discredit it. Would you like me to explain it to you? And again, FO is just a ranking of sacks. 

You still dont understand that thread. Would you like me to explain it to you again?

So now you are combining one argument/dataset you dont understand with another set of data you dont understand? 

Thats an impressive level of ignorance. 

Trust me... I get it.  I think 90% of the forum knows I get it.  The other 10% like stupid graphs or cherry picked stats. They don't understand the salary cap and the give and take involved in the cap. What I'm showing you is that it's not hard for average and even below average QBs to put up great stats against NFL weaklings.  It's not.  Daniel Jones would have been the NFL MVP if all he did was play against bottom 5 teams as he had some statistically remarkably great games against sucky teams.  In apples to apples comparison, Dak and Jameis were basically equal against like opponents.  It's not that difficult to understand.  The issue then becomes value.  What you simply don't grasp is that the cap is finite.  There is a limit.  It's a horrible idea to pay Dak like he is one of the best QBs in the NFL... just like TB didn't pay Jameis top dollar.  The guys who should get paid top dollar are the QBs who play well against every time of team not just the weaklings drafting in the top 5.  In 10 games against teams who were not bottom 5 weaklings, Dak threw 11 TDs and 8 Ints.  That is Mason Rudolph and Case Keenum numbers.  It's not NFL elite QB worthy of top tier money.  I have no problem moving on from Dak because the money we are saving on Dak can easily upgrade other areas of need and a lot of QBs can do what Dak did last year... abuse weaklings and struggle against  everyone else. 

[5x10]

I went ahead and ran the #s for Carson wentz, he’s much closer to dak when looking at the spread

to be clear, this is looking at td passes per game vs under 500 teams, 500 and over teams, and then looking at the spread between the 2 #s

Dak avgs 1.87 tds under 500 and 1.19 over 500, .68 spread 

wentz avgs 1.95 under 500 and 1.44 over 500, .51 spread 
Wilson avgs  1.93 under 500 and 1.80 over 500, .13 spread
last 4 years, playoffs included 

Edited May 29, 2020 by 5x10

[cromagnum]

Jesus Christ you stat geeks drive me crazy. 

[Matts4313]

37 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

Trust me... I get it. 

If you get it, why do you keep grossly misrepresenting everything? I know you are a lawyer and are used to spinning everything - - but a lot of this is just blatant lies. 

Quote

I think 90% of the forum knows I get it.  The other 10% like stupid graphs or cherry picked stats.

I think your numbers are probably inverted. And "stupid cherry picked stats" are the "advanced analytics" that our forum was craving. Im not cherry picking anything. I see the stat, I post the stat. Its not my fault that they all disagree with you.

And you need to let that soak in. Pretty much every advanced analytical site on planet earth says you are wrong. 

Quote

They don't understand the salary cap and the give and take involved in the cap. What I'm showing you is that it's not hard for average and even below average QBs to put up great stats against NFL weaklings.  It's not.  Daniel Jones would have been the NFL MVP if all he did was play against bottom 5 teams as he had some statistically remarkably great games against sucky teams.  In apples to apples comparison, Dak and Jameis were basically equal against like opponents.  It's not that difficult to understand.  The issue then becomes value.  What you simply don't grasp is that the cap is finite.  There is a limit.  It's a horrible idea to pay Dak like he is one of the best QBs in the NFL... just like TB didn't pay Jameis top dollar. 

Your comparison to Jameis is a joke. 

Quote

The guys who should get paid top dollar are the QBs who play well against every time of team not just the weaklings drafting in the top 5.  In 10 games against teams who were not bottom 5 weaklings, Dak threw 11 TDs and 8 Ints.  That is Mason Rudolph and Case Keenum numbers.  It's not NFL elite QB worthy of top tier money.  I have no problem moving on from Dak because the money we are saving on Dak can easily upgrade other areas of need and a lot of QBs can do what Dak did last year... abuse weaklings and struggle against  everyone else. 

This has already been addressed. It was 13 TDs and 2 INTs that were a direct result of bad Dak throws. 

 

965 - 7 - 7 - 4 Games

1017 - 7 - 4 - 4 games

 

1617 - 11 - 2 - 6 games

1783 - 14 - 5 - 6 games

 

1400 - 12 - 2 - 6 games

2002 - 16 - 3 - 6 games

 

So who do you want? 2 of these are MVPs and the 3rd was in the MVP talks all season. 

Ryan v Dak

Kirk v Dak

Rodgers v Dak

 

So by Slam logic, Dak's play is "Apples to Apples" equivalent to 3 of the top 5 paid QBs in the NFL and 2 MVPS. 

 

Next.....

 

(this was done hastily, but I tried to match up away/home common games)

Edited May 29, 2020 by Matts4313

[Matts4313]

21 minutes ago, 5x10 said:

I went ahead and ran the #s for Carson wentz, he’s much closer to dak when looking at the spread

to be clear, this is looking at td passes per game vs under 500 teams, 500 and over teams, and then looking at the spread between the 2 #s

Dak avgs 1.87 tds under 500 and 1.19 over 500, .68 spread 

wentz avgs 1.95 under 500 and 1.44 over 500, .51 spread 
Wilson avgs  1.93 under 500 and 1.80 over 500, .13 spread
last 4 years, playoffs included 

That doesnt seem right. Both of them have 97 passing TDs on close to the same amount of attempts (1361 v 1311). Both have a passing TD% of 4.7%. Of course Wentz is skewed by 2017 - - which he will never hit again. 

Also, if we actually wanted to be fair, Dak has 118 total TDs to Wentz's 100. 

I think your numbers are wrong.