Dak Thread....still debating, beating a dead horse

[5x10]

50 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

That doesnt seem right. Both of them have 97 passing TDs on close to the same amount of attempts (1361 v 1311). Both have a passing TD% of 4.7%. Of course Wentz is skewed by 2017 - - which he will never hit again. 

Also, if we actually wanted to be fair, Dak has 118 total TDs to Wentz's 100. 

I think your numbers are wrong. 

That’s fine, go ahead and run them yourself and see what you come up with 

 

 

so I think I’m able to explain these #s a little better

of course, when playing more difficult teams , you would expect a qb to throw less td passes.

ive been looking at the decline of tds, as a percentage , when facing under 500 teams and .500 and over teams 

here’s what I have come up with (all qbs are for the last 4 years except dalton, I used his first 4 years)

Rodgers = His TD production does not drop when facing 500 and over teams (2.04 vs under and 2.05 500 and over )

‘Wilson = 6.7% less tds 

‘Ryan = 10.8% less TDs

Cousins = 14.8% less tds 

Dalton = 19% less tds 

Wentz = 26% less tds

Prescott = 36% less tds 

Edited May 29, 2020 by 5x10

[Matts4313]

16 minutes ago, 5x10 said:

That’s fine, go ahead and run them yourself and see what you come up with 

 

 

so I think I’m able to explain these #s a little better

of course, when playing more difficult teams , you would expect a qb to throw less td passes.

ive been looking at the decline of tds, as a percentage , when facing under 500 teams and .500 and over teams 

here’s what I have come up with (all qbs are for the last 4 years except dalton, I used his first 4 years)

Rodgers = His TD production does not drop when facing 500 and over teams (2.04 vs under and 2.05 500 and over )

‘Wilson = 6.7% less tds 

‘Ryan = 10.8% less TDs

Dalton = 19% less tds 

Wentz = 26% less tds

Prescott = 36% less tds 

Did you go through all the game logs and look up the record of the opposing teams?

Why did you not use first 4 years for all QBs? 

Do you have this in a spreadsheet or something easily available? 

[5x10]

9 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Did you go through all the game logs and look up the record of the opposing teams?

Why did you not use first 4 years for all QBs? 

Do you have this in a spreadsheet or something easily available? 

I have a dual monitor setup

on one screen, I pull up the standing for the particular year

on the other screen, I pull up the game logs (espn lists the touchdowns so it’s easy)

one by one, I put them all on a spreadsheet (1 column for under 500, another for 500 and over ), I do this for each year

once I do them all for the particular qb, I then add up all the tds under 500 and divide them by the # of games  played under 500, to give me an avg td per game calc( do the same for over 500)

for example, Kirk cousins threw 53 tds in 29 games against sub 500 competition from 2019-2016. He threw 56 tds in 36 games vs 500 and over comp

i then take the difference (spread) and divide the spread by the avg td per game vs under 500 teams which gives me the % difference 

 

the only reason I picked daltons first 4 years was to compare it to Daks first 4 years and the fact that his team during that time, from a talent perspective, is closer to what dak is playing with vs daltons 2019 team

Edited May 29, 2020 by 5x10

[Matts4313]

2 minutes ago, 5x10 said:

I have a dual monitor setup

on one screen, I pull up the standing for the particular year

on the other screen, I pull up the game logs (espn lists the touchdowns so it’s easy)

one by one, I put them all on a spreadsheet (1 column for under 500, another for 500 and over ), I do this for each year

once I do them all for the particular qb, I then add up all the tds under 500 and divide them by the # of games  played under 500, to give me an avg td per game calc( do the same for over 500)

for example, Kirk cousins threw 53 tds in 29 games against sub 500 competition from 2019-2016. He threw 56 tds in 36 games vs 500 and over comp

i then take the difference (spread) and divide the spread by the avg td per game vs under 500 teams which gives me the % difference 

What are the total games and TDs for Dak (over and under .500)?

[5x10]

1 minute ago, Matts4313 said:

What are the total games and TDs for Dak (over and under .500)?

99/66 just counting passing tds 

[quiller]

Soooo.  Let me get this straight all I gotta do is go back find a year pick a game set Say all road games —- post the QBs numbers and that tells us if he’s the best sense slice bed or better off planning his retirement...      don’t work that way friend ...   

granted yes I posted yearly stats to compare earlier both reg season and playoffs so I am just as bad 

still unless the teams are playing like games you really can’t compare.   Did Winston play on road at NE in terrible conditions for example.  I also didn’t see TB play 3 games in 11 days 2 of them on the road ....    sure that’s all an excuse. 
 

but the reality is I am glad some people aren’t in charge of the cowboys if they really think We are better off playing Winston 18-22 million a year then Dak 36

[Matts4313]

6 minutes ago, 5x10 said:

99/66 just counting passing tds 

I meant, how many games against teams over and under .500. Like how many TDs for over and how many TDs for under.

Also Dak has 102 passing TDs (125 total) if you are including playoffs (and 67 games). 

Edited May 29, 2020 by Matts4313

[5x10]

32 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

I meant, how many games against teams over and under .500. Like how many TDs for over and how many TDs for under.

Also Dak has 102 passing TDs if you are including playoffs. 

Yep, looks like i missed the 3 against gb

i went back and re-checked my #s (dak was my first one and I did it on notebook paper)

I’m showing under 500 = 55/30 , 500 and over is 52/37

ive updated his spread percentage below

 

Rodgers = His TD production does not drop when facing 500 and over teams (2.04 vs under and 2.05 500 and over )

‘Wilson = 6.7% less tds 

‘Ryan = 10.8% less TDs

Cousins = 14.8% less tds 

Dalton = 19% less tds 

prescott = 23.5% less tds 

Wentz = 26% less tds

2016, tds dropped 4%, 2017 tds dropped 7%, 2018 tds dropped 15%, 2019 tds dropped 54%

Edited May 29, 2020 by 5x10

[Matts4313]

22 minutes ago, 5x10 said:

2016, tds dropped 4%, 2017 tds dropped 7%, 2018 tds dropped 15%, 2019 tds dropped 54%

Thanks. looks like we have a huge outlier.

I would be interested in total TDs.

[The_Slamman]

2 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

If you get it, why do you keep grossly misrepresenting everything? I know you are a lawyer and are used to spinning everything - - but a lot of this is just blatant lies. 

I think your numbers are probably inverted. And "stupid cherry picked stats" are the "advanced analytics" that our forum was craving. Im not cherry picking anything. I see the stat, I post the stat. Its not my fault that they all disagree with you.

And you need to let that soak in. Pretty much every advanced analytical site on planet earth says you are wrong. 

Your comparison to Jameis is a joke. 

This has already been addressed. It was 13 TDs and 2 INTs that were a direct result of bad Dak throws. 

 

965 - 7 - 7 - 4 Games

1017 - 7 - 4 - 4 games

 

1617 - 11 - 2 - 6 games

1783 - 14 - 5 - 6 games

 

1400 - 12 - 2 - 6 games

2002 - 16 - 3 - 6 games

 

So who do you want? 2 of these are MVPs and the 3rd was in the MVP talks all season. 

Ryan v Dak

Kirk v Dak

Rodgers v Dak

 

So by Slam logic, Dak's play is "Apples to Apples" equivalent to 3 of the top 5 paid QBs in the NFL and 2 MVPS. 

 

Next.....

 

(this was done hastily, but I tried to match up away/home common games)

Matts, you are getting closer.   Now, take out the weaklings.  I really don’t care about yardage.  For example, Taking out the weaklings, Rodgers went 2-1 while Dak went 1-2.  Rodgers had a 5-1 TD ratio.  Dak had a 2.5-1 TD ratio.  Dak played well against minn but shat the bed on the final drive.  Dak shat the bed through 3 quarters against the bears where he was significantly outplayed by Mitch Trubisky.  Yes, Mitch Trubisky.  Dak put up garbage time stats in the 4th quarter but too little too late. And, Philly at home was a game completely dominated by Zeke and Philly TOs.  Dak couldn’t have shat the bed if he wanted to.

 

 

Edited May 29, 2020 by The_Slamman

[Matts4313]

29 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

Matts, you are getting closer.   Now, take out the weaklings.  I really don’t care about yardage.  For example, Taking out the weaklings, THE PACKERS went 2-1 while THE COWBOYS went 1-2.

Fixed, since this seems to be lost on you.

29 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

 Rodgers had a 5-1 TD ratio.  Dak had a 2.5-1 TD ratio.  

Interesting you left in the "Weaklings" for the Jameis comparison. 

29 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

Dak played well against minn but shat the bed on the final drive.

Youve gone full efffing insane Slam.. Dak was AMAZING that final drive. Led us down to the 10 yard line throwing *DIMES*. Then we tried to run the ball, lost yardage, 2 plays on a row. Then we had a 1 route dump off to Zeke who couldnt beat his man.

ZEKE/COACHING shat the bed. 

Seriously, stop lying. Its beneath you.

29 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

 Dak shat the bed through 3 quarters against the bears where he was significantly outplayed by Mitch Trubisky.  Yes, Mitch Trubisky.  Dak put up garbage time stats in the 4th quarter but too little too late. And, Philly at home was a game completely dominated by Zeke and Philly TOs.  Dak couldn’t have shat the bed if he wanted to.

You are right. Mitch significantly outplay *OUR DEFENSE*. Dak had the more difficult challenge of playing the bears defense - - with a broken hand. 

[5x10]

3 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Thanks. looks like we have a huge outlier.

I would be interested in total TDs.

And a trend as well

total tds is 107

Edited May 30, 2020 by 5x10

[The_Slamman]

1 hour ago, Matts4313 said:

Fixed, since this seems to be lost on you.

Interesting you left in the "Weaklings" for the Jameis comparison. 

Youve gone full efffing insane Slam.. Dak was AMAZING that final drive. Led us down to the 10 yard line throwing *DIMES*. Then we tried to run the ball, lost yardage, 2 plays on a row. Then we had a 1 route dump off to Zeke who couldnt beat his man.

ZEKE/COACHING shat the bed. 

Seriously, stop lying. Its beneath you.

You are right. Mitch significantly outplay *OUR DEFENSE*. Dak had the more difficult challenge of playing the bears defense - - with a broken hand. 

JG totally threw Dak under the bus on that last drive... how many times have you EVER heard JG call out the QB for not going with the pass plays with the stacked LOS?  BTW, I was at the game.  On second down inside the 10, Dak absolutely should have faked to Zeke and kept the ball.  If he would have he would have gotten at least the first down.  Then, on third down, Dak inexplicably decided to run Zeke on the exact same dive where Zeke just got stuffed.  Literally the entire stadium groaned when Dak handed off.  It was bad/stupid decision by Dak to not switch to pass.  Then, on 4th down... of all the weapons on the field... Dak decided to throw to Zeke.  And it was a bad pass thrown late and behind.  Yes, Dak shat the bed.  Dak was given both run and pass plays and Dak read the defense wrong.  That is shatting the bed with the game on the line.

 

one more thing... if Jameis is capable of abusing weaklings, why wouldn’t Aaron Rodgers?  I think you still don’t grasp the point.  Any average QB can play great against the weaklings.  Daniel Jones looked like an MVP against the fellow weaklings.  It’s not impressive.  What I showed you with Jameis and Dak is that Dak played no better than Jameis because both are average.  They beat up weaklings and struggle against average and good teams.  10 games, 11 TDs, 8 ints.  Below average.  Aaron Rodgers is different.  I haven’t done the math but my estimate is Rodgers probably has a 2.5 to 3 TD ratio against average and good teams.  Dak is barely above 1:1.

 

I just did the math... Rodgers through 16 tds and only 2 INTs (8:1 TD ratio) against non weaklings.

Edited May 30, 2020 by The_Slamman

[Matts4313]

42 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

JG totally threw Dak under the bus on that last drive... how many times have you EVER heard JG call out the QB for not going with the pass plays with the stacked LOS?  BTW, I was at the game.  On second down inside the 10, Dak absolutely should have faked to Zeke and kept the ball.  If he would have he would have gotten at least the first down.  Then, on third down, Dak inexplicably decided to run Zeke on the exact same dive where Zeke just got stuffed.  Literally the entire stadium groaned when Dak handed off.  It was bad/stupid decision by Dak to not switch to pass.  Then, on 4th down... of all the weapons on the field... Dak decided to throw to Zeke.  And it was a bad pass thrown late and behind.  Yes, Dak shat the bed.  Dak was given both run and pass plays and Dak read the defense wrong.  That is shatting the bed with the game on the line.

Your memory is terrible. The line wasnt stacked. Zeke just sucked.

And I would love to hear the quote that they called Dak out on.

42 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

one more thing... if Jameis is capable of abusing weaklings, why wouldn’t Aaron Rodgers?  I think you still don’t grasp the point.  Any average QB can play great against the weaklings.  Daniel Jones looked like an MVP against the fellow weaklings.  It’s not impressive.  What I showed you with Jameis and Dak is that Dak played no better than Jameis because both are average.  They beat up weaklings and struggle against average and good teams.  10 games, 11 TDs, 8 ints.  Below average.  Aaron Rodgers is different.  I haven’t done the math but my estimate is Rodgers probably has a 2.5 to 3 TD ratio against average and good teams.  Dak is barely above 1:1.

 

I just did the math... Rodgers through 16 tds and only 2 INTs (8:1 TD ratio) against non weaklings.

Well, 1 you keep lying and misrepresenting Daks stats. And 2 I simply did what you did. 

[TheGame316]

10 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Im not boiling a 4 year career into a 4 game sample size. Especially when Jamies led the NFL in bulk stats last year. Its a false narrative and I refuse to play your silly game. 

He won't boil a 4 year career into a 4 game sample size, unless of course it's something that benefits his Dak Love

Then, Boil Away!

Edited May 30, 2020 by TheGame316