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Prescott is seeking a lot of money, but not $40m/yr. Probably gonna be more like $35-36m/yr

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8 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Lets play this game. Here is Dak compared to Brady, Manning, Brees, Rivers, Palmer and Wentz. How shocked are you to see..... HE IS BETTER THAN ALL THEM TOO?

I tried to stick with QBs in the "passing Era"

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=Dak+Prescott&player_id1_select=Dak+Prescott&player_id1=PresDa01&fromyear_1=2016&toyear_1=2018&player_id2_hint=Tom+Brady&player_id2_select=Tom+Brady&player_id2=BradTo00&fromyear_2=2000&toyear_2=2003&player_id3_hint=Peyton+Manning&player_id3_select=Peyton+Manning&player_id3=MannPe00&fromyear_3=1998&toyear_3=2000&player_id4_hint=Carson+Wentz&player_id4_select=Carson+Wentz&player_id4=WentCa00&fromyear_4=2016&toyear_4=2018&player_id5_hint=Philip+Rivers&player_id5_select=Philip+Rivers&player_id5=RivePh00&fromyear_5=2004&toyear_5=2007&player_id6_hint=Drew+Brees&player_id6_select=Drew+Brees&player_id6=BreeDr00&fromyear_6=2001&toyear_6=2004

 

Here are some more: Dak is comprable to the first 48 games of Big Ben, Matt Ryan, Rodgers, Luck, Wilson. Only Aarod pulls away though Russel Wilson has a slight lead too.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=Dak+Prescott&player_id1_select=Dak+Prescott&player_id1=PresDa01&fromyear_1=2016&toyear_1=2018&player_id2_hint=Matt+Ryan&player_id2_select=Matt+Ryan&player_id2=RyanMa00&fromyear_2=2008&toyear_2=2010&player_id3_hint=Aaron+Rodgers&player_id3_select=Aaron+Rodgers&player_id3=RodgAa00&fromyear_3=2008&toyear_3=2010&player_id4_hint=Ben+Roethlisberger&player_id4_select=Ben+Roethlisberger&player_id4=RoetBe00&fromyear_4=2004&toyear_4=2006&player_id5_hint=Russell+Wilson&player_id5_select=Russell+Wilson&player_id5=WilsRu00&fromyear_5=2012&toyear_5=2014&player_id6_hint=Andrew+Luck&player_id6_select=Andrew+Luck&player_id6=LuckAn00&fromyear_6=2012&toyear_6=2014

Yea it is. Show me the stats that say different.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^Dak compared to the first ~40ish games from:

Wentz

ARod

Wilson

Big Ben

Matt Ryan

Tom Brady

Peyton Manning

Drew Brees

Phillip Rivers

Luck

Palmer

 

Spoiler alert: He stacks up favorably/comparably to all of them. The only one with a clear lead over him is Godgers. The rest he is on par with, especially when you factor rushing production. 

Edited by Matts4313

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I mean you can’t really compare him to anyone whose career started in the ‘00’s, much less than 90’s. The average passer rating is like 10+ points higher now.

I think we had kind of a rough go of it as far as QB talent drafted in the middle stages of this decade (‘13-16)

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14 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

^^^^^^^^^^^^^Dak compared to the first ~40ish games from:

Wentz

ARod

Wilson

Big Ben

Matt Ryan

Tom Brady

Peyton Manning

Drew Brees

Phillip Rivers

Luck

Palmer

 

Spoiler alert: He stacks up favorably/comparably to all of them. The only one with a clear lead over him is Godgers. The rest he is on par with, especially when you factor rushing production. 

Hard to compare him to different era's.

Not to mention, Dak coming into his rookie season with the team he had around him is not typically what a young QB has to work with.

That team was built to win now with Tony. Dak did a great job filling in, however a good chunk of those QBs you listed, did not have much in place when they started.

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15 minutes ago, matt79511 said:

I mean you can’t really compare him to anyone whose career started in the ‘00’s, much less than 90’s. The average passer rating is like 10+ points higher now.

I think we had kind of a rough go of it as far as QB talent drafted in the middle stages of this decade (‘13-16)

The passing rules era started with Manning/Brady in 2002(?). All of these QBs played some or most of their careers in the "passing Era"

3 minutes ago, CAPJ said:

Hard to compare him to different era's.

Not to mention, Dak coming into his rookie season with the team he had around him is not typically what a young QB has to work with.

That team was built to win now with Tony. Dak did a great job filling in, however a good chunk of those QBs you listed, did not have much in place when they started.

See above about eras. As for talent, a lot of those teams won immediately. And actually won a superbowl, or made it further than us. Some of those teams even had multiple QBs play and still won the superbowl. The teams were **actually** stacked. Not how we tend to overrate our own. 

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Of that list:

Made Superbowl

Brady

Big Ben

Wilson

Wentz

 

Were play off teams:

Rodgers

Palmer

Brees (stacked 2004 team with LDT and Gates)

Luck 

Ryan

Rivers (stacked 2006 team with LDT and Gates)

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Based on current market value, Dak is worth $29-31 Million a year IMO. Just because you're the next in line for a contract doesn't always mean you should be next in line to receive a record breaking contract.

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1 hour ago, Matts4313 said:

The passing rules era started with Manning/Brady in 2002(?). All of these QBs played some or most of their careers in the "passing Era"

See above about eras. As for talent, a lot of those teams won immediately. And actually won a superbowl, or made it further than us. Some of those teams even had multiple QBs play and still won the superbowl. The teams were **actually** stacked. Not how we tend to overrate our own. 

Average passer rating by season + where the listed QBs finished in their first three years as the primary starter:

1998: 78.3 (Manning, 71.2- 23rd)

1999: 77.1 (Manning, 90.7- 4th)

2000: 78.1 (Manning, 94.7- 6th)

2001: 78.5 (Brady, 86.5- 6th)

2002: 80.4 (Brady, 85.7- 9th; Brees- 76.9, 24th)

2003: 78.3 (Brady, 85.9- 10th; Brees, 67.5- 22nd)

2004: 82.8 (Brees, 104.8- 3rd; Roethlisberger- 98.1, 5th; Palmer, 77.3- 23rd)

2005: 80.1 (Palmer, 101.1- 2nd; Roethlisberger, 98.6- 3rd)

2006: 80.4 (Palmer, 93.9- 6th; Roethlisberger, 75.4- 23rd; Rivers, 92.0- 8th)

2007: 82.6 (Rivers, 82.4- 18th)

2008: 83.2 (Rivers, 105.5- 1st; Rodgers, 93.8, 6th; Ryan 87.7, 11th)

2009: 83.0 (Rodgers, 103.2- 4th; Ryan, 80.9, 20th)

2010: 84.1 (Rodgers, 101.2- 3rd; Ryan, 91.0, 11th)

2011: 84.3

2012: 85.6 (Wilson, 100.0- 4th; Luck, 76.5, 26th)

2013: 86.0 (Wilson, 101.2- 7th; Luck, 87.0, 18th)

2014: 88.9 (Wilson, 95.0- 10th; Luck, 96.5- 7th)

2015: 90.2

2016: 89.3 (Prescott, 104.9- 3rd; Wentz, 79.3- 25th)

2017: 86.9 (Prescott, 86.6- 18th; Wentz, 101.9- 4th)

2018: 92.9 (Prescott, 96.9- 14th; Wentz, 102.2- 7th)

 

Some notes:

- Yes, league-wide passer rating last year was 9.9 or more points higher than every year in the 2000's

- The jump from '17 to '18 is the largest on the entire list. Prior to that the biggest was '03 to '04, which I believe was when the league changed the PI rules

- Brees got off to a really rocky start

- So did Luck but I've always felt he was better than those numbers and I think EPA models agree

- Big Ben is probably Dak's best comp here as a guy who started off highly efficient in a low-attempt offense on a stacked team whose efficiency plummeted as his role increased. Maybe Matt Ryan as well as far as a guy who was just kind of okay but blossomed into very good, best we can hope for with Dak

- No one else peaked as a rookie in terms of overall passer rating (some did in terms of rank)

- When excluding rookie years (not "first year as the starter", I'm not giving the benefit of the doubt to anyone who got to ride the bench), Dak's average rating of 16th is basically tied with Brees and Ryan as worst of this group. That's the perception he has to fight, that he came on in a QB-friendly era to a team with a stacked roster and hasn't really progressed. While I think it's unfair to write off his rookie year entirely I think there is clearly some truth to that. That team had literally the 3 best OLs in the league plus a fourth that could/should have made the Pro Bowl, a Top 3 RB, a Pro Bowl WR and TE and a Top 5 slot receiver. It's a lot of the same talent from the year before, yes (minus Zeke and a healthy Dez) that Weeden/Cassel/Moore struggled with, so it's not like he deserves no credit... but I don't think writing off his rookie year due to the insane support cast is any worse than including it and counting his abysmal performance in the back half of '17 through the first half of '18 as one prolonged aberration. That's 2 months of debilitating QB play in consecutive years, it doesn't matter what order it came in, and it's not helping fight the perception that Dak needs elite talent around him to thrive.

Edited by matt79511

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9 minutes ago, matt79511 said:

Average passer rating by season + where the listed QBs finished in their first three years as the primary starter:

1998: 78.3 (Manning, 71.2- 23rd)

1999: 77.1 (Manning, 90.7- 4th)

2000: 78.1 (Manning, 94.7- 6th)

2001: 78.5 (Brady, 86.5- 6th)

2002: 80.4 (Brady, 85.7- 9th; Brees- 76.9, 24th)

2003: 78.3 (Brady, 85.9- 10th; Brees, 67.5- 22nd)

2004: 82.8 (Brees, 104.8- 3rd; Roethlisberger- 98.1, 5th; Palmer, 77.3- 23rd)

2005: 80.1 (Palmer, 101.1- 2nd; Roethlisberger, 98.6- 3rd)

2006: 80.4 (Palmer, 93.9- 6th; Roethlisberger, 75.4- 23rd; Rivers, 92.0- 8th)

2007: 82.6 (Rivers, 82.4- 18th)

2008: 83.2 (Rivers, 105.5- 1st; Rodgers, 93.8, 6th; Ryan 87.7, 11th)

2009: 83.0 (Rodgers, 103.2- 4th; Ryan, 80.9, 20th)

2010: 84.1 (Rodgers, 101.2- 3rd; Ryan, 91.0, 11th)

2011: 84.3

2012: 85.6 (Wilson, 100.0- 4th; Luck, 76.5, 26th)

2013: 86.0 (Wilson, 101.2- 7th; Luck, 87.0, 18th)

2014: 88.9 (Wilson, 95.0- 10th; Luck, 96.5- 7th)

2015: 90.2

2016: 89.3 (Prescott, 104.9- 3rd; Wentz, 79.3- 25th)

2017: 86.9 (Prescott, 86.6- 18th; Wentz, 101.9- 4th)

2018: 92.9 (Prescott, 96.9- 14th; Wentz, 102.2- 7th)

 

Some notes:

- Yes, league-wide passer rating last year was 9.9 or more points higher than every year in the 2000's

- Brees got off to a really rocky start

- So did Luck but I've always felt he was better than those numbers and I think EPA models agree

- Big Ben is probably Dak's best comp here as a guy who started off highly efficient guy in a low-attempt offense on a stacked team whose efficiency plummeted as his role increased. Maybe Matt Ryan as well as far as a guy who's just kind of ok but blossomed into a very good, best we can hope for with Dak

- No one else peaked as a rookie in terms of overall passer rating (some did in terms of rank)

- When excluding rookie years (not "first year as the starter", I'm not giving the benefit of the doubt to anyone who got to ride the bench), Dak's average rating of 16th is basically tied with Brees and Ryan as worst of this group. That's the perception he has to fight, that he came on in a QB-friendly era to a team with a stacked roster and hasn't really progressed. While I think it's unfair to write off his rookie year entirely I think there is clearly some truth to that. That team had literally the 3 best OLs in the league plus a fourth that could/should have made the Pro Bowl, a Top 3 RB, a Pro Bowl WR and TE and a Top 5 slot receiver. It's a lot of the same talent from the year before, yes (minus Zeke and a healthy Dez) that Weeden/Cassel/Moore struggled with, so it's not like he deserves no credit... but I don't think writing off his rookie year due to the insane support cast is any worse than including it and counting his abysmal performance in the back half of '17 through the first half of '18 as one prolonged aberration. That's 2 months of debilitating QB play in consecutive years, it doesn't matter what order it came in, and it's not helping fight the perception that Dak needs elite talent around him to thrive.

Only thing I would add is that Daks passer rating in 2017 was ~103 before the Falcons. In 2018 it was 101 after Cooper. 

There is a very clear segment in his career where his OL and WRs werent just weak, they were down right awful. And its fair to knock Dak for not elevating them. But you have to also acknowledge we are talking about straight garbage play from everyone who would block or catch from Dak. 

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19 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Only thing I would add is that Daks passer rating in 2017 was ~103 before the Falcons. In 2018 it was 101 after Cooper. 

There is a very clear segment in his career where his OL and WRs werent just weak, they were down right awful. And its fair to knock Dak for not elevating them. But you have to also acknowledge we are talking about straight garbage play from everyone who would block or catch from Dak. 

Fair enough. In any case, we need another strong, complete season from him. And he needs to do a better job of recognizing blitzes and changing plays at the line so as to not make those blockers and pass catchers look worse.

I would also note that the defense was really good for the majority of that 16-game stretch. Even post-Amari they were what kept us in most games before the offense could get it together.

Edited by matt79511

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10 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Only thing I would add is that Daks passer rating in 2017 was ~103 before the Falcons. In 2018 it was 101 after Cooper. 

There is a very clear segment in his career where his OL and WRs werent just weak, they were down right awful. And its fair to knock Dak for not elevating them. But you have to also acknowledge we are talking about straight garbage play from everyone who would block or catch from Dak. 

@Matts4313 I agree that the Falcon game was the biggest turning point. I believe that game got to him mentally as well all because we didnt make any adjustments to the blocking scheme.

But if were saying now that he has Cooper and a strong oline is how we want to judge Dak moving forward, then fine. 

I just believe that if were paying elite type money to a QB he needs to consistently overcome flaws in the roster.

I dont believe Dak has shown that he cam consistent do that.

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2 minutes ago, CAPJ said:

@Matts4313 I agree that the Falcon game was the biggest turning point. I believe that game got to him mentally as well all because we didnt make any adjustments to the blocking scheme.

He admitted it was a few games into 2019 that he got mentally right from the Falcons game. He abandoned all trust for them. 

2 minutes ago, CAPJ said:

But if were saying now that he has Cooper and a strong oline is how we want to judge Dak moving forward, then fine. 

The OL needs to live up to their price tag. The coaching needs to improve. And I am not as sold on the WRs as everyone else. To many unprovens, cast offs and over the hills. Plus Cooper. 

But I see other people rating our WRs very high. So maybe I am just pessimistic based on hearing we can thrive with Cole as our #1 WR.

2 minutes ago, CAPJ said:

I just believe that if were paying elite type money to a QB he needs to consistently overcome flaws in the roster.

I dont believe Dak has shown that he cam consistent do that.

It will only be "elite" money for ~2 of the 4-6 years. Thats just how they work. But he does need to elevate the flaws on the roster. For sure. 

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Think New Orleans would be interested in a trade for Bridgewater and a pick?   Brees is 40,  on the last year of his contract,  and has been made into more of a game manager. 

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Replace a guy who has never missed a game with a man more fragile than a wet napkin - brilliant!

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2 hours ago, SweetFancyMoses said:

Think New Orleans would be interested in a trade for Bridgewater and a pick?   Brees is 40,  on the last year of his contract,  and has been made into more of a game manager. 

I think the idea of trading for Bridgewater is the worst one I have heard... possibly in my lifetime... and theres been like 3 of you to say.

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If Dak doesnt take the $30 mill a year, let him play out this year and franchise him next year (roughly $27 million). At this point, we get Dak for 2 years under a total of $30 million.

 

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