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WizardHawk

Prescott is seeking a lot of money, but not $40m/yr. Probably gonna be more like $35-36m/yr

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27 minutes ago, RAINMAN said:

Miami offers #4, a second and a 2021 1sr round pick for Dak. Do you pull the trigger?

I think you mean #5. And yes I take that trade instantly.

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5 hours ago, Northland said:

Fair point.  Im not a GM but I think we would be pleasantly surprised at our return if we traded Dak.  Why would we trade him?  My point is a lot of us are forgetting the dark days of Carter, Hutchinson, and company.  I'll flip it back.   The fact that he is a terrific QB and leader in my mind ends the discussion about trading him.  It can take franchises a long time to find a QB.  In my mind QB is the least of our worries.  We can win with Dak.   Why we would want to part with him is beyond me.

Those were the days before the passing league rules and when Jerry did everything he could to ruin our franchise for another blockbuster move.

If what Matts says is true and it's not about getting 40 Mil per year but just a shorter contract I wouldn't be opposed much to that 32 a year move.

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2 hours ago, CAPJ said:

I think you mean #5. And yes I take that trade instantly.

Who plays QB then?

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11 minutes ago, Calvert28 said:

Those were the days before the passing league rules and when Jerry did everything he could to ruin our franchise for another blockbuster move.

A lot of teams have struggled even in this passing league.

11 minutes ago, Calvert28 said:

If what Matts says is true and it's not about getting 40 Mil per year but just a shorter contract I wouldn't be opposed much to that 32 a year move.

Not sure if its speculation or based in reality. I remember a talking head bringing it up in the season. Then I saw another dude on Reddit bring it up today.

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4 hours ago, RAINMAN said:

Miami offers #4, a second and a 2021 1sr round pick for Dak. Do you pull the trigger?

Given this year’s QB class? Yes.

 

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Dont know why Miami would trade up from the 5th pick to the 4th pick then trade for Dak but I would think about doing it.

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8 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

So I want to address 2 prevailing myths: 

  1.  That QB contracts are getting out of control
  2.  That paying your QB hurts your chance at winning

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Point 1: QB contracts are the same as they always have been. Yes, sometimes QBs have really high cap years. But on average, top QBs are still getting paid roughly ~15% of cap the year they sign.

2020: Goff is the highest hit at 17%. But by the time you get to #5, Matt Ryan, you are down to 11%. Remember, Ryan was the largest contract just a few years ago.

2019: Rodgers at 15%; 5th is Rivers is 12%

2018: Stafford at 14%; 5th is Brees at 13%

Peyton Mannings largest cap hit? 16% in 2009 - a decade ago

Bradys largest was 14% - - in 2006

Steve young in 1993, in a  MVP Superbowl year.... 16% of the cap. 

Marino was 15% in 98.

Aikman was 13% in a superbowl year. Elway also peaked around 13%.

Favre hit 14%.

 

As you can see, for the entire existence of the cap, QBs have signed a contract that hit ~15%. And obviously with the way the cap works, 15% 1 year, becomes ~13% the next, ~10-11% the year after that. Its just the nature of the beast. Even Goff, who is 17% this year, drops to 14% in 2021. By 2022? He is under 10%.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Point 2: You can win with QBs on 2nd contracts. Virtually every QB just listed made or won a Superbowl after signing a contract that put them at 15% of the cap. Those QBs have like, what, 25 superbowl appearances and over a dozen wins between them? Bradys made 4-5 after a second contract, Manning, Aikman, Favre, Elway, Young, Brees *ALL* made superbowls after second contracts. Big Ben, Jimmy G and Bledsoe as well. 

Many of them made it after becoming (or close to) the highest paid player in the NFL at some point in their career.

What people are suffering from is the recency bias of a few stellar rookie contract QBs. But even that doesnt have legs. Of the playoff QBs this year, Mahomes and Jackson were the only rookie contracts. Thats true for most years. More teams with QBs on second contracts make the playoffs. 

 

 

So, the big take away: All good QBs get a contract where they are roughly 15% of the cap. That % of the cap will decrease every year. Having one of those QBs does not hurt your chances of making the playoffs. Once you are in the playoffs, anything can happen. There have been HOF careers made with a QB who was at one point the highest paid player in the NFL. 

 

 

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On 2/4/2020 at 4:28 AM, Northland said:

Fair point.  Im not a GM but I think we would be pleasantly surprised at our return if we traded Dak.  Why would we trade him?  My point is a lot of us are forgetting the dark days of Carter, Hutchinson, and company.  I'll flip it back.   The fact that he is a terrific QB and leader in my mind ends the discussion about trading him.  It can take franchises a long time to find a QB.  In my mind QB is the least of our worries.  We can win with Dak.   Why we would want to part with him is beyond me.

Because he’s trying to break the bank and is not willing to work with the Cowboys. I’ve flip flopped on my opinion of Dak, but if he’s holding out for 36 million or more I am fine with the team moving on. Unlike Romo, he’s not in the argument for being a top 5 QB in the NFL. The Cowboys can’t afford to stay in the business of getting “threatened” by players who hold out, then underperform once paid. Trade Dak and let McCarthy choose his QB. Maybe we strike gold again. 

If those dark days you speak of did come back (big IF), they would indeed suck. But that line of thinking is wrong imo. This franchise has survived worse before. They were horrible in ‘88 and guess what? They got the right to draft Troy Aikman and the rest is history.
 

We’ve been Cowboys fan before Dak and will continue being fans once he’s gone. Besides, those high draft picks would be great way to rebuild this roster with elite talent. Look at how fast the 49ers went from being great (SB with Harbaugh), to being terrible (top 5 pick), to being great again (SB appearance with Shanahan). Apart of their turnaround is being in the position to draft elite talent.

Edited by Tony7188

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9 minutes ago, Tony7188 said:

Because he’s trying to break the bank and is not willing to work with the Cowboys. I’ve flip flopped on my opinion of Dak, but if he’s holding out for 36 million or more I am fine with the team moving on. They can’t afford to keep getting “threatened” by players who hold out, then underperform once paid. Let McCarthy choose his QB. Maybe we strike gold again. 

If those dark days you speak of did come back (big IF), it would suck. However, this franchise has survived before. I’ve been a Cowboys fan before Dak and will continue being one once he’s gone. Besides, those high draft picks would be great way to rebuild this roster with elite talent. Look at how fast the 49ers went from being great (SB with Harbaugh), to being terrible (top 5 pick), to being great again (SB appearance with Shanahan).

Good discussion.  Purely for arguments sake I'll say Dak didn't set the market.  Why should he, or anyone else accept less than going rate?  I think it's a huge gamble to move on from a very productive QB.  Let's see what McCarthy can do with Dak and the offense vs gambling on a rookie. If we want to move on from someone what about Cooper?  We won't because of the price paid to acquire him, but he didn't produce on the road last year and it's a receiver rich draft.

 

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39 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

@MKnight82 @ITS_RAMMY_PLAYBOI - I dedicate this meme to you two:

 

pvtsme361ye41.jpg?width=500&auto=webp&s=

You guys didn't make the playoffs with Dak on a rookie contract.  Giving him an extension improves the team how?

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17 minutes ago, Tony7188 said:

Because he’s trying to break the bank and is not willing to work with the Cowboys. I’ve flip flopped on my opinion of Dak, but if he’s holding out for 36 million or more I am fine with the team moving on. Unlike Romo, he’s not in the argument for being a top 5 QB in the NFL. The Cowboys can’t afford to stay in the business of getting “threatened” by players who hold out, then underperform once paid. Trade Dak and let McCarthy choose his QB. Maybe we strike gold again. 

If those dark days you speak of did come back (big IF), they would indeed suck. But that line of thinking is wrong imo. This franchise has survived worse before. They were horrible in ‘88 and guess what? They got the right to draft Troy Aikman and the rest is history.
 

We’ve been Cowboys fan before Dak and will continue being fans once he’s gone. Besides, those high draft picks would be great way to rebuild this roster with elite talent. Look at how fast the 49ers went from being great (SB with Harbaugh), to being terrible (top 5 pick), to being great again (SB appearance with Shanahan). Apart of their turnaround is being in the position to draft elite talent.

Counterpoint:

Dak didnt deny that the offer on the table was $32m (Dan Patrick superbowl interview). That is less than both Wentz and Goff. 2 QBs he has out performed in every single measurable stat + accolades/wins. He has also individually played better than both of them in the playoffs. So maybe is the Cowboys low balling the market. 

 

Secondly, lets say the market is $35m. The cap this year is projected to be $200m, conservatively the cap goes up $12m/year. Most likely the cap is about to have a huge jump with both the new CBA and the potential expansion of games. But lets stick to $12m.

  1. 200
  2. 212
  3. 224
  4. 236
  5. 248

 

A straight $35m/yr for 5 years would have the following % of total cap:

  1. 17.5
  2. 16.5
  3. 15.6
  4. 14.8
  5. 14.1

The magic number for franchise QB contracts is 15%. Its been that way for 25 years. So Dak would be in that range in 3 out of 5 years in this scenario. He would be overpaid in 2 out 5. 

 

Just food for thought. 

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Just now, MKnight82 said:

You guys didn't make the playoffs with Dak on a rookie contract.  Giving him an extension improves the team how?

Yeah we did. We made it twice. We missed by 1 game in the other 2 years. WE had the #1 seed. We won a playoff game. 

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Just now, Matts4313 said:

Yeah we did. We made it twice. We missed by 1 game in the other 2 years. WE had the #1 seed. We won a playoff game. 

I meant this year.

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11 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

I meant this year.

Our point differential in losses this year was 40. In those games we had 30 points in missed kicks. We were #1 in the NFL in FG attempts. #32 in FG accuracy. #24 in 4th down attempts. 

Do you think that might have been a factor in winning at least 1 game?

 

Our defense was mid 20's in opposing QB ANY/A. Which means Even if Dak had a great game, there was a solid chance the opposing QB also had a great game. 

Do you think that might be a factor in winning 1 game?

 

In the vikings game specifically, Dak was on.freaking.fire! Led us down the entire field masterfully. Was perfect, truly. We get within the 10 yard line and coach decides to force it to Zeke every play. Zeke cant get 10 yards, in fact, he loses yards. We lose the game. 

Do you think better coaching would have helped us win that game?

 

 

Daks not blameless. He was terrible against the Packers and Eagles. But he was the least of our concerns last year.  

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