Matts4313 Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 For those of you who struggle to read, Dak is the 6th best QB and Dalton is the worst QB in 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said: Rookie contracts are based on where the rookie was selected not on trajectory. Why are rookies drafted early? Is it because they are projected to be terrible or because they are projected to be good? Did Burrow go #1 overall because the bengals thought "Man this guy sucks. His trajectory is to bust hard!!" 3 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said: Young was the cant miss prospect this year. Highest rated rookie. His trajectory is much higher than any other rookie. Was he the highest paid rookie?? Exactly. So please wtf are you talking about saying ALL contracts are on trajectory. Contracts have always been based on what you have done for the team recently and what you will do going forward. ...................SMH. This is the dumbest argument I have ever seen. Vince went top 3. His contract was top 3 rookie contract. Because his trajectory coming out of Texas was very high. He busted due to alcoholism and hating Fisher. That doesnt change anything about what he was paid coming out of college. 3 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said: Clowney sucks when hes the first option to block. Make him the 3rd best lineman on the team and that's a different story. Like he was with Houston? And he still sucked? Besides, he wants to be a top 5 paid pass rusher. IF he has to be the 3rd best on a single team, isnt that even more egregious than Dak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddy_z34 Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 16 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: Why are rookies drafted early? Is it because they are projected to be terrible or because they are projected to be good? Did Burrow go #1 overall because the bengals thought "Man this guy sucks. His trajectory is to bust hard!!" ...................SMH. This is the dumbest argument I have ever seen. Vince went top 3. His contract was top 3 rookie contract. Because his trajectory coming out of Texas was very high. He busted due to alcoholism and hating Fisher. That doesnt change anything about what he was paid coming out of college. Like he was with Houston? And he still sucked? Besides, he wants to be a top 5 paid pass rusher. IF he has to be the 3rd best on a single team, isnt that even more egregious than Dak? 3rd best on the team with Tank and Griffen using the money the team saves with Dak. I'd place my money on Dalton leading this team with a stacked pass rushing dline more so than I would with Dak leading the team at 40 mil per. So no that's not as egregious as paying Dak when all itll get the team is 8-8. So you're going all the way to Vince Young when there wasnt a rookie pay scale. Nice one Matt's. I meant Young the DE from Ohio State. Burrow went #1 because he is a QB. No way was he the highest rated rookie. Rookies are drafted based on team needs and then based on their trajectory. No way in hell can you say Burrow was rated higher than Young. Still doesnt change the fact that Dallas will be going 8-8 maybe 6-10 in the years after the team gets dismantled because of Daks contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 (edited) 21 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said: 3rd best on the team with Tank and Griffen using the money the team saves with Dak. I'd place my money on Dalton leading this team with a stacked pass rushing dline more so than I would with Dak leading the team at 40 mil per. So no that's not as egregious as paying Dak when all itll get the team is 8-8. Lol - What about the the 13-3? What about the same amount of playoff wins as Romo over a ~15 year career (or did he win 2)? More than Dalton has ever won in a ~10 year career? Or how about WINS ARE NOT A QB STAT. Quote So you're going all the way to Vince Young when there wasnt a rookie pay scale. Nice one Matt's. I meant Young the DE from Ohio State. I just assumed we were talking about QBs. But even then, Chase went top 3 because his trajectory is high and he was paid top 3 in the draft. It works like that for every single draft pick and player contract. Quote Burrow went #1 because he is a QB. No way was he the highest rated rookie. Rookies are drafted based on team needs and then based on their trajectory. No way in hell can you say Burrow was rated higher than Young. Burrow is 100% rated higher because his position is much more valuable. Young might be the best DE, Burrow was the most important player. Quote Still doesnt change the fact that Dallas will be going 8-8 maybe 6-10 in the years after the team gets dismantled because of Daks contract. lmao. Because this has happened to a bunch of other teams in the ~25 years weve had the cap, amiright? O, yeah, it never happens unless a team starts drafting like crap and/or has significant turnover as HC. Edited May 30, 2020 by Matts4313 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29204682/cowboys-dak-prescott-contract-talks-dispelling-theories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: From /u/Kobegriffeysanders on reddit: So, I am not a huge manipulator of data, spreadsheets, etc. This relatively simple project took longer than I wish to admit. Basically, using PFF, I compiled a list of 36 quarterbacks from the 2019 NFL season and compiled their Passer Ratings from a clean pocket and when pressured, then calculated the actual and percent differences of the two passer rating figures for each QB. DISCLAIMER: Yes, I know Passer Rating is not a perfect all-powerful statistic, but it at least serves as something of an overarching indicator of performance, and I felt it worked sufficiently for this kind of project. First, let's look at how effectively each QB passed the ball from a clean pocket. QUARTERBACKS Clean Pocket Passer Rating Ryan Tannehill 122.8 Drew Brees 120.8 Matt Stafford 120.0 Lamar Jackson 118.5 Kirk Cousins 118.1 Russell Wilson 114.5 Teddy Bridgewater 114 Jimmy Garoppolo 110.8 Patrick Mahomes 110.6 Deshaun Watson 107.9 Dak Prescott 107.8 Drew Lock 105.3 Derek Carr 104.8 Mason Rudolph 104.7 Aaron Rodgers 104.2 Matt Ryan 101.5 Tom Brady 101.2 Jacoby Brissett 100.5 Sam Darnold 99.6 Jared Goff 99.5 Carson Wentz 99.4 Jameis Winston 98.6 Ryan Fitzpatrick 98.4 Marcus Mariota 98.0 Joe Flacco 97.7 Daniel Jones 96.8 Gardner Minshew 96.7 Philip Rivers 96.4 Nick Foles 95.7 Josh Allen 95.2 Kyler Murray 94.8 Mitch Trubisky 93.0 Kyle Allen 89.6 Baker Mayfield 85.0 Andy Dalton 83.9 Dwayne Haskins 81.8 AVERAGE 102.45 A couple of things to note here: Holy hell Tannehill Bridgewater, Rudolph (!), and Brissett stand out as surprises in a good way. Brady, Rivers, Allen, Murray, and Mayfield (!) stand out as surprises in a bad way, relative to league-average. Next, let's look at how each of these QBs passed the ball when pressured, as well as the % of dropbacks they were pressured. (sorted by passer rating when pressured) QUARTERBACKS Pressured Pocket Passer Rating % Dropbacks Pressured Drew Brees 100.1 25.1% Ryan Tannehill 98.4 29.9% Lamar Jackson 97.7 30.9% Patrick Mahomes 89.7 28.3% Russell Wilson 89.3 39.8% Derek Carr 88.4 28.4% Kirk Cousins 84.9 36.4% Dak Prescott 79.5 31.9% Carson Wentz 78.8 35.8% Gardner Minshew 77.7 35.1% Matt Stafford 77.2 37.5% Deshaun Watson 76.6 38.4% Marcus Mariota 75.1 35.1% Jimmy Garoppolo 74.2 30.0% Aaron Rodgers 74.0 34.5% Matt Ryan 73.8 39.2% Daniel Jones 72.2 41.7% Philip Rivers 71.7 35.5% Jacoby Brissett 63.8 38.3% Kyler Murray 62.1 29.5% Baker Mayfield 62.0 33.4% Teddy Bridgewater 60.9 33.6% Josh Allen 60.5 36.1% Jared Goff 60.4 36.0% Andy Dalton 60.0 29.2% Dwayne Haskins 58.9 35.9% Sam Darnold 58.5 41.9% Drew Lock 58.4 36.0% Ryan Fitzpatrick 57.8 39.7% Nick Foles 57.5 32.8% Joe Flacco 55.4 36.4% Mitch Trubisky 55.2 32.3% Kyle Allen 54.1 34.2% Tom Brady 51.8 29.9% Jameis Winston 44.4 33.0% Mason Rudolph 35.6 36.4% AVERAGE 69.35 34.39% A couple more notes: Darnold and Jones are the only QBs who were pressured over 40% of the time. Close to that 40% mark are Wilson, Fitzpatrick, Ryan, Watson, and Brissett (!) The percent difference between the least-pressured and 2nd-least-pressured QBs is greater than the percent difference between the 2nd- and 9th-least-pressured QBs (Brees #1 at 25.1%, Mahomes #2 at 28.3%, Jackson at #9 at 30.9%). This is a testament to the New Orleans offense as a whole -- Brees getting rid of the ball quickly, having weapons (AKA Michael Thomas) good enough to be successful in getting rid of the ball quickly, Sean Payton's playcalling, and an elite offensive line. Tom Brady played alarmingly bad when pressured, having a pressured Passer Rating worse than QBs like Kyle Allen, Mitch Trubisky, and Joe Flacco. Lastly, let's look at the percent difference in Passer Rating for each QB, as well as the actual difference. (ex. An actual difference of 120.0 and 96.0 is 24.0, whereas the percent difference would be 20%) This is sorted by percent difference. Being at the top of the list means a QBs passing was more significantly affected by being pressured. Being at the bottom means a QBs passing was less significantly affected. QUARTERBACKS Percent Difference in Passer Rating Actual Difference Mason Rudolph 66% 69.1 Jameis Winston 55% 54.3 Tom Brady 49% 49.4 Teddy Bridgewater 47% 53.1 Drew Lock 45% 46.9 Joe Flacco 43% 42.3 Sam Darnold 41% 41.1 Ryan Fitzpatrick 41% 40.6 Mitch Trubisky 41% 37.8 Nick Foles 40% 38.0 Kyle Allen 40% 35.5 Jared Goff 39% 39.1 Jacoby Brissett 37% 36.7 Josh Allen 36% 34.7 Matt Stafford 36% 42.8 Kyler Murray 34% 32.7 Jimmy Garoppolo 33% 36.6 Deshaun Watson 29% 31.3 Aaron Rodgers 29% 30.2 Andy Dalton 28% 23.9 Kirk Cousins 28% 33.2 Dwayne Haskins 28% 22.9 Matt Ryan 27% 27.7 Baker Mayfield 27% 23.0 Dak Prescott 26% 28.3 Philip Rivers 26% 24.7 Daniel Jones 25% 24.6 Marcus Mariota 23% 22.9 Russell Wilson 22% 25.2 Carson Wentz 21% 20.6 Ryan Tannehill 20% 24.4 Gardner Minshew 20% 19.0 Patrick Mahomes 19% 20.9 Lamar Jackson 18% 20.8 Drew Brees 17% 20.7 Derek Carr 16% 16.4 AVERAGE 32% 33.1 Finally. The meat and potatoes of this post. Which QBs saw the steepest decline in play when pressured? Well, as we can see, within the top half of the list are many inconsistent/question-mark guys (Winston, Bridgewater, Flacco, Fitzpatrick, Trubisky, Foles), young guys (Rudolph, Lock, Darnold, Kyle Allen), and... Tom Brady? This is not a Tom Brady roast, but I was very surprised to see his Passer Rating decrease by nearly half when pressured this past season. Toward the bottom of the list were generally guys who are more highly-regarded. Three of the more interesting names are Daniel Jones at only a 25% decline, Gardner Minshew (20%) and Derek Carr (16%). It's interesting to say that Derek Carr is the QB who was least-affected by pressure in the 2019 season. My next question would be if this kind of data is at all consistent from year to year. For example: Is Derek Carr normally this unaffected by pressure? Has Tom Brady always been this highly affected? What a great way to kill a morning for me. I miss football. I also hope these formatting tables work. Interesting way to look at pressures. I feel like getting pressured on 32% of drop further proves my point that our OL was not "elite" last year. Dak was top 13 in all categories, also not elite, but being top 8 QB when pressure means he at least in the 'good' categorey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddy_z34 Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Matts4313 said: Interesting way to look at pressures. I feel like getting pressured on 32% of drop further proves my point that our OL was not "elite" last year. Dak was top 13 in all categories, also not elite, but being top 8 QB when pressure means he at least in the 'good' categorey. Context!! What constitutes as a pressure? Were they in a 4 man front and only used those 4 or did the other team blitz?? Stats are always in question because they can be manipulated one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddy_z34 Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Matts4313 said: Interesting way to look at pressures. I feel like getting pressured on 32% of drop further proves my point that our OL was not "elite" last year. Dak was top 13 in all categories, also not elite, but being top 8 QB when pressure means he at least in the 'good' categorey. Context!! What constitutes as a pressure? Were they in a 4 man front and only used those 4 or did the other team blitz?? Stats are always in question because they can be manipulated one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtnldave Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 6 hours ago, TheGame316 said: Great Watch the Eagles game, The Bears Game, The Bills game and the Saints and Patriots game and tell us how great Dak was Okay. I watched the Iggles game. How many drops were in that game? Not every QB has a great game every game. Prescott has done a good enough job to warrant being the starting QB. All this other stuff is some next level kind of frustration crap because we haven't come close to winning a championship in a quarter of a decade. I was only trying to point out the Minnesota game was a bad example to use because Dak played well. Our hold out over paid RB sucked *** that game. THAT and our Swiss cheese LB corp and DC who couldn't adjust to dump offs to Cook and SOMEBODY covering Rudolph are went we lost THAT game. Christ, go back and watch it, I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddy_z34 Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Matts4313 said: Lol - What about the the 13-3? What about the same amount of playoff wins as Romo over a ~15 year career (or did he win 2)? More than Dalton has ever won in a ~10 year career? Or how about WINS ARE NOT A QB STAT. I just assumed we were talking about QBs. But even then, Chase went top 3 because his trajectory is high and he was paid top 3 in the draft. It works like that for every single draft pick and player contract. Burrow is 100% rated higher because his position is much more valuable. Young might be the best DE, Burrow was the most important player. lmao. Because this has happened to a bunch of other teams in the ~25 years weve had the cap, amiright? O, yeah, it never happens unless a team starts drafting like crap and/or has significant turnover as HC. You know what they say when you assume? We were talking about rookie contracts, why you assumed only rookie qbs were involved is beyond me. Anyways being most important is not the same as being the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buddy_z34 Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Rtnldave said: Okay. I watched the Iggles game. How many drops were in that game? Not every QB has a great game every game. Prescott has done a good enough job to warrant being the starting QB. All this other stuff is some next level kind of frustration crap because we haven't come close to winning a championship in a quarter of a decade. I was only trying to point out the Minnesota game was a bad example to use because Dak played well. Our hold out over paid RB sucked *** that game. THAT and our Swiss cheese LB corp and DC who couldn't adjust to dump offs to Cook and SOMEBODY covering Rudolph are went we lost THAT game. Christ, go back and watch it, I did. Didnt he miss an open streaking Michael Gallup for a TD or was that the first game?? That TD would of been early in the first quarter if I'm not mistaken which could of turned the game on its head. Or maybe I'm misremembering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 (edited) 14 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said: Context!! What constitutes as a pressure? Were they in a 4 man front and only used those 4 or did the other team blitz?? Stats are always in question because they can be manipulated one way or another. This is literally your default to every stat. It contributes nothing and when given "context" (such as ESPN saying our ol only won ~60% of their blocks, good for 11th) you completely ignore it. Try contributing some "context" of your own. Factual context. Edited May 30, 2020 by Matts4313 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtnldave Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said: Didnt he miss an open streaking Michael Gallup for a TD or was that the first game?? That TD would of been early in the first quarter if I'm not mistaken which could of turned the game on its head. Or maybe I'm misremembering Are you talking about the Iggles game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said: Didnt he miss an open streaking Michael Gallup for a TD or was that the first game?? That TD would of been early in the first quarter if I'm not mistaken which could of turned the game on its head. Or maybe I'm misremembering I only remember 1 egregious throw in Philly 2. It was a TD to Cobb. But context will tell you he had 2 broken hands, a sprained shoulder and couldn't even lift his arm to throw all week long. Context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtnldave Posted May 30, 2020 Share Posted May 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: I only remember 1 egregious throw in Philly 2. It was a TD to Cobb. But context will tell you he had 2 broken hands, a sprained shoulder and couldn't even lift his arm to throw all week long. Context. I remember how banged up he was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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