Dak Thread....still debating, beating a dead horse

[resilient part 2]

The 3 things that will go on forever..

1-Rats 

2-roaches

3 and this Dak debate..  

[The_Slamman]

16 minutes ago, TheGame316 said:

He won't boil a 4 year career into a 4 game sample size, unless of course it's something that benefits his Dak Love

Then, Boil Away!

If there a graph or a chart that boiled his 4 year career into a 4 game sample it would take every ounce of will power in his body to refrain from rubbing it out right then and there.

[Matts4313]

Yall are stupid. I dont even look for those graphs. They get posted on Reddit and/or the NFCE thread (sometimes). I dont cherry pick anything. I dont go on twitter. I dont follow any specific person. I read the Reddit Cowboys forum and NFL forum. Dak gets brought up a lot. I copy and paste 99% of them I see. 

 

Its not my fault that the entire analytical world thinks the ~4 of you Dak haters are brain dead when it comes to football.

[Rtnldave]

10 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Your memory is terrible. The line wasnt stacked. Zeke just sucked.

And I would love to hear the quote that they called Dak out on.

Well, 1 you keep lying and misrepresenting Daks stats. And 2 I simply did what you did. 

I just watched highlites of the Dal vs Minn game. 3 things that killed us NOT named Dak:

Minn TE Rudoplh- he abused our DBs and LBs with 2 TDs and a 2 point Conv.

Minn RB Cook- he DESTROYED us on passes to the flat, underneath behind our D line and secondary, where in the hell were our LB'S????? Dosen't matter I seen Smith, Lee, and Vander Deusch wiff on TFL on this guy at least 3 times.

Dal- RB Eliott- Didn't hear his name on a single play during the highlites reels until the 3rd quarter. Next time I heard it was the last drive where HE shatt the bed.

So, the fact that we were in that game at all is because of the outstanding play of Prescott and the WRs.

Not to mention our K attempted a FG and sent it into left field. Had he made that, we would only have needed a FG to win.

My 2 cents.

[TheGame316]

2 hours ago, Rtnldave said:

I just watched highlites of the Dal vs Minn game. 3 things that killed us NOT named Dak:

Minn TE Rudoplh- he abused our DBs and LBs with 2 TDs and a 2 point Conv.

Minn RB Cook- he DESTROYED us on passes to the flat, underneath behind our D line and secondary, where in the hell were our LB'S????? Dosen't matter I seen Smith, Lee, and Vander Deusch wiff on TFL on this guy at least 3 times.

Dal- RB Eliott- Didn't hear his name on a single play during the highlites reels until the 3rd quarter. Next time I heard it was the last drive where HE shatt the bed.

So, the fact that we were in that game at all is because of the outstanding play of Prescott and the WRs.

Not to mention our K attempted a FG and sent it into left field. Had he made that, we would only have needed a FG to win.

My 2 cents.

Great

Watch the Eagles game, The Bears Game, The Bills game and the Saints and Patriots game and tell us how great Dak was

[DaBoys]

27 minutes ago, TheGame316 said:

Great

Watch the Eagles game, The Bears Game, The Bills game and the Saints and Patriots game and tell us how great Dak was

Right the Minnesota game is the 1 and only loss of our 8 that the offense actually showed up before the game was out of hand. I can’t fault Dak, and the offense for Minnesota. 
 

All 7 of our other losses we averaged 7.8 points through the first 3 quarters. Cherry picked or not, scoring early MATTERS in football. I posted a detailed analysis a few days ago proving this. You can’t score just ~7 points in the first three quarters and win games in the NFL. Just my 2 cents

Edited May 30, 2020 by DaBoys

[TheGame316]

15 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

Right the Minnesota game is the 1 and only loss of our 8 that the offense actually showed up before the game was out of hand. I can’t fault Dak, and the offense for Minnesota. 
 

All 7 of our other losses we averaged 7.8 points through the first 3 quarters. Cherry picked or not, scoring early MATTERS in football. I posted a detailed analysis a few days ago proving this. You can’t score just ~7 points in the first three quarters and win games in the NFL. Just my 2 cents

Wait, but Matts tells us that Dak is balls out in the 2nd and 3rd Quarters?

He's got fancy stats and graphs to back it up......

[plan9misfit]

I love how it’s always someone else’s fault when #4 craps the bed but #4 is always responsible for everything when things go right.

Talk about mental gymnastics.

Edited May 30, 2020 by plan9misfit

[Matts4313]

1 hour ago, DaBoys said:

Right the Minnesota game is the 1 and only loss of our 8 that the offense actually showed up before the game was out of hand. I can’t fault Dak, and the offense for Minnesota. 
 

All 7 of our other losses we averaged 7.8 points through the first 3 quarters. Cherry picked or not, scoring early MATTERS in football. I posted a detailed analysis a few days ago proving this. You can’t score just ~7 points in the first three quarters and win games in the NFL. Just my 2 cents

Did you? I didnt see it. Link? 

This is like a comprehensive NFL wide thing right? Not just some hate piece on the Cowboys alone without any reference point?

58 minutes ago, plan9misfit said:

I love how it’s always someone else’s fault when #4 craps the bed but #4 is always responsible for everything when things go right.

Talk about mental gymnastics.

lmao. Its literally the exact opposite. If we lose its because Dak. If we win its because the team. Are you even reading the thread? 

[buddy_z34]

The point of this thread is just to show that Dak and his asking price will severely hurt this team in the long run when it's been shown that Dak needs the ENTIRE team to play well. Paying Dak will limit the resources and those players that he needs will have to find new homes because Dak is taking up a large portion of the salary cap.

All the Dak apologists have said he is still getting better and improving. If that's the case then he should not be asking to be the highest paid QB in the league. 

[Matts4313]

5 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said:

The point of this thread is just to show that Dak and his asking price will severely hurt this team

No its not. Thats the point some of you are trying to make it into to though. 

5 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said:

in the long run when it's been shown that Dak needs the ENTIRE team to play well. Paying Dak will limit the resources and those players that he needs will have to find new homes because Dak is taking up a large portion of the salary cap.

This statement is 100% flat out false in my opinion. The only thing weve been shown is he struggled when our OL was giving up pressures/Sacks as one of the worst teams in the entire NFL. Which guess what? Every QB has that problem. Brady lost 2 superbowls by not being able to drop back and set his feet. Peyton Manning as well. 

5 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said:

All the Dak apologists have said he is still getting better and improving. If that's the case then he should not be asking to be the highest paid QB in the league. 

Again, completely disagree. Every contract or draft pick in the entire NFL  is based on trajectory. 

[buddy_z34]

3 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

No its not. Thats the point some of you are trying to make it into to though. 

This statement is 100% flat out false in my opinion. The only thing weve been shown is he struggled when our OL was giving up pressures/Sacks as one of the worst teams in the entire NFL. Which guess what? Every QB has that problem. Brady lost 2 superbowls by not being able to drop back and set his feet. Peyton Manning as well. 

Again, completely disagree. Every contract or draft pick in the entire NFL  is based on trajectory. 

Rookie contracts arent based on trajectory. So you're wrong there buddy. If its based on trajectory then Mahomes should be taking a contract over 200 million whens his contract expires?? Contracts are based on what you've done in the recent past. Why do you think Zeke got the money?? Because he had won the rushing title 2 out of 3 years, would of been all 3 years if he didnt get suspended. That's why Zeke got paid. 

So 2 of the greatest QBs of this most recent generation lost SuperBowls because of the other teams pass rush?? Then why sign Dak and instead go out and sign Clowney and Griffen??

[Matts4313]

3 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said:

Rookie contracts arent based on trajectory. So you're wrong there buddy.

WTF are you talking about? Rookie contracts are based on draft pick. You draft a player based on their trajectory for your team..... So you are wrong there, friendo.

3 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said:

If its based on trajectory then Mahomes should be taking a contract over 200 million whens his contract expires??

Mahomes is projected to be signing a $200m contract when it expires. So yes, thats exactly what it means. 

3 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said:

Contracts are based on what you've done in the recent past. Why do you think Zeke got the money?? Because he had won the rushing title 2 out of 3 years, would of been all 3 years if he didnt get suspended. That's why Zeke got paid. 

Well if its recent past, then Dak was between a top 3 (advanced analytics) to a top 7 QB last year. There are 8 QBs making over $30m. The top 3 are all around ~$34ish. They were signed last year, the cap went up 5%, so you are saying we should pay Dak ~$36m/yr based on "recent past"?

PS - we extended Zeke because we are stupid. 

3 minutes ago, buddy_z34 said:

So 2 of the greatest QBs of this most recent generation lost SuperBowls because of the other teams pass rush?? Then why sign Dak and instead go out and sign Clowney and Griffen??

Because 1 - clowney sucks. And 2 - those same two QBs won 8 superbowls. 

[buddy_z34]

10 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

WTF are you talking about? Rookie contracts are based on draft pick. You draft a player based on their trajectory for your team..... So you are wrong there, friendo.

Mahomes is projected to be signing a $200m contract when it expires. So yes, thats exactly what it means. 

Well if its recent past, then Dak was between a top 3 (advanced analytics) to a top 7 QB last year. There are 8 QBs making over $30m. The top 3 are all around ~$34ish. They were signed last year, the cap went up 5%, so you are saying we should pay Dak ~$36m/yr based on "recent past"?

PS - we extended Zeke because we are stupid. 

Because 1 - clowney sucks. And 2 - those same two QBs won 8 superbowls. 

Rookie contracts are based on where the rookie was selected not on trajectory. Young was the cant miss prospect this year. Highest rated rookie. His trajectory is much higher than any other rookie. Was he the highest paid rookie?? Exactly. So please wtf are you talking about saying ALL contracts are on trajectory. Contracts have always been based on what you have done for the team recently and what you will do going forward. 

Clowney sucks when hes the first option to block. Make him the 3rd best lineman on the team and that's a different story. 

[Matts4313]

From /u/ AegonTargaryan

Which stats are the most important? Can you actually rate quarterbacks in a manner to encompass all aspects of the game? In an attempt to accurately rate QBs I have taken four of the most widely used and highly regarded stats and combined them to see which QB is best. Passer Rating, ANY/A, EPA, and QBR will be the stats used in this comparison. Passer Rating measures TD%, INT%, YPA, and Completion % but it fails to account for rushing, situational need, and supporting cast. ANY/A has similar measurement but also includes sacks and historically is the most predictive stat for success. It is here we start to see some basic stats like completion % counted multiple times. This is intentional because these stats that are primarily passing based which is the largest part of a QB's game. Though rushing is a large part of some QBs' games, passing is dominant. EPA shows how beneficial a player is in comparison to others. EPA also takes into account situational need and supporting cast. QBR is the most divisive of the stats being used. This is because its methodology is not publicly known and it often has some drastically different results to other ratings like the ones we are using. Despite this it accounts for rushing ability as well as other parts of the QB's game which raw stats may not address.

Methodology:

This is for 2019 only. I took 28 quarterbacks leaving out backups or QBs that went out early. From these 28 QBs I took the highest and lowest grade in each stat. I then measured each QB stat between these for a percentile score. Example: Dalton had the lowest passer rating of 78.3 while Tannehill had the highest at 117.5. Dalton's percentile is .000 while Tannehill's is 1.000. Watson, with a 98.0 passer rating is in the .502 percentile. I then took the four percentile grades for each QB and averaged them. Example 2: Carr's passer rating %: .574 - ANY/A %: .635 - EPA %: .597 - QBR %: .537 = Average of .586 . I call this metric the Quarterback Performance Percentile or QBPP. It is important to remember that .500 is NOT the average. .500 is directly in the middle of the worst and best scores. the QBPP average is actually .467 meaning that the best the average QB was closer to the worst graded QB then he was to the best graded QB.

Creation:

Originally I was going to do this from 2016-2019 with 40 starts minimum. Some stats proved harder to find though (like QBR) so I just did 2019. I was also going to include PFF and maybe DVOA but PFF is private and subjective and I just flat out forgot DVOA by the time I was started. The reason to begin in 2016 is that 4 years is enough to get a good understanding of a QB as well as being a standard contract length. This was originally to rank QBs overall, not just grade a season. If this is successful enough I may give that another go. Anyway, here is you Quarterback Performance Percentile for 2019. * indicates less than 12 starts.

Rank	Player	QBPP	PR	ANY/A	EPA	QBR
1	Jackson	.973	113.3	8.19	103.7	81.8
2	Mahomes	.880	105.3	8.38	97.3	76.3
3	Stafford*	.813	106.0	8.15	56.1	69.6
4	Brees*	.789	116.3	8.33	62.6	71.7
5	Wilson	.755	106.3	7.42	90.9	69.8
6	Prescott	.754	99.7	7.84	93.1	70.2
7	Tannehill*	.692	117.5	8.52	45.8	62.2
8	Watson	.641	98.0	6.63	91.6	68.7
9	Cousins	.598	107.4	7.73	59.0	58.4
10	Carr	.586	100.8	7.25	70.3	62.2
11	Garroppolo	.567	102.0	7.22	69.3	58.8
12	Wentz	.533	93.1	6.26	90.5	60.8
13	Ryan	.437	92.1	6.08	75.1	57.6
14	Rodgers	.428	95.4	6.71	66.4	50.4
15	Fitzpatrick	.405	85.5	5.78	70.7	66.5
16	Brady	.347	88.0	6.24	61.0	53.7
17	Murray	.345	87.4	5.55	71.6	55.7
18T	Rivers	.312	88.5	6.32	57.4	48.6
18T	Winston	.312	84.3	6.15	78.4	53.7
20	Goff	.309	86.5	6.46	57.5	48.5
21	Brisset	.280	88.0	6.06	52.2	50.1
22	Jones	.260	87.7	5.38	55.1	53.6
23	Minshew	.244	91.2	6.44	41.8	42.6
24	J. Allen	.218	85.3	5.71	51.4	47.3
25	Mayfield	.188	78.8	5.29	54.4	52.4
26	Darnold	.100	84.3	5.50	31.6	43.6
27	Trubisky	.066	83.0	5.04	39.8	39.5
28	Dalton	.014	78.3	5.19	30.3	40.1