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Dak Thread....still debating, beating a dead horse


WizardHawk

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On 5/30/2020 at 7:33 PM, DaBoys said:
On 5/30/2020 at 7:26 PM, Rtnldave said:

I watched Trent Dilfer, Nick Foles, Johnson (Tampa Bay) all win SBs. Why in the hell can't we with Dak? 

What were they being paid at the time?

Interestingly enough, I just saw a post that Johnson had the 3rd largest contract in the NFL the year he won. I didnt fact check because I am lazy. But it made me think of this post. 

Dak could be the #3 contract as early as this year..... 

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33 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Interestingly enough, I just saw a post that Johnson had the 3rd largest contract in the NFL the year he won. I didnt fact check because I am lazy. But it made me think of this post. 

Dak could be the #3 contract as early as this year..... 

In 2002, in terms of average salary Brad Johnson was only 15th out of all QBs with several non QBs ranked ahead of him like Randy Moss and Junior Seau. But that specific year he had a pretty big cap hit that placed him 3rd at $6.8M(10% of the cap) behind only Peyton Manning($10.3M - 15%) and Jake Plummer($8.7M - 12%) for just that year.  His hit for that year was 7th highest in the league. 

 

Emmitt Smith has the highest cap hit of 2002

Edited by DaBoys
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2 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Bill Barnwell brought the Calvar(t)y to Slam the Trolls 316 different ways. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29247938/debunking-dak-prescott-contract-debate-facts-fiction-why-cowboys-pay-him?platform=amp&__twitter_impression=true

INB4 => The trolls only focus on the Dak v 10+ win teams/top 10 defense and fail to realize he is still #8 overall in those categories over a 4 year period and his individual performance is still decent.  I will concede though that this seems to be the only evidence based critique of Dak. 

Furthermore, I blame a lot of our failures against top 10 defenses on coaching. How many teams/players said they knew all our calls, adjustments, audibles, etc. Hard to just "out execute" a great defense. 

How does this Slam anybody but Dak?  I don’t think most of us have a problem paying Dak in the #8 range.  I do have a major problem paying Dak in the #1 range.  $30M a year... I don’t love it but I can live with it.  $35M a year, I hate it.  The fact that Dak turned down 5 yr 175M is mind boggling stupid.

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3 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

I assure you that you can not. Dak had 33 TDs. 19 + 11 = 30

You cant erase TDs that did happen and refuse context on the INTs that did.

Strange since the facts dont back that up at all. Especially not for his career. 

I guess we should also factor in Dak’s 4 fumbles during those games too.  10 games: 11 passing TDs, 2 rushing TDs, 8 Ints, 4 fumbles.  Still below average.

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19 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

I guess we should also factor in Dak’s 4 fumbles during those games too.  10 games: 11 passing TDs, 2 rushing TDs, 8 Ints, 4 fumbles.  Still below average.

Not when 6 of those INTs we're not Daks fault.

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2 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Not when 6 of those INTs we're not Daks fault.

Case Keemun disagrees.  
 

against non weaklings, case threw 135/189 for 1,346 yards with 8 TDs and 4 INTs.  That’s a 66% completion percentage and 7.12 ypa.  
 

How does it feel knowing Case who got benched and run out of town played better against non weaklings than Dak?

 

we could have case for 3 years 18M.  Imagine that... a better player for a whole lot less $.  We could have Case for 3 years for half the cost of having Dak for 1 year.

 

Still below average.

Edited by The_Slamman
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9 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Bill Barnwell brought the Calvar(t)y to Slam the Trolls 316 different ways. 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29247938/debunking-dak-prescott-contract-debate-facts-fiction-why-cowboys-pay-him?platform=amp&__twitter_impression=true

INB4 => The trolls only focus on the Dak v 10+ win teams/top 10 defense and fail to realize he is still #8 overall in those categories over a 4 year period and his individual performance is still decent.  I will concede though that this seems to be the only evidence based critique of Dak. 

Furthermore, I blame a lot of our failures against top 10 defenses on coaching. How many teams/players said they knew all our calls, adjustments, audibles, etc. Hard to just "out execute" a great defense. 

"I don't Cherry Pick Articles...... I just read ESPN and NFL Reddit...."

*Oh, here's one that fits my narrative and feeds my confirmation bias*

*Right Click

*Select All

*Copy

*Open FootballFuture.com/forums

*Paste

"See guys, Everyone's saying it. It's not me, IT'S YOU"

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6 minutes ago, TheGame316 said:

"I don't Cherry Pick Articles...... I just read ESPN and NFL Reddit...."

*Oh, here's one that fits my narrative and feeds my confirmation bias*

*Right Click

*Select All

*Copy

*Open FootballFuture.com/forums

*Paste

"See guys, Everyone's saying it. It's not me, IT'S YOU"

tollface.jpg

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5 hours ago, The_Slamman said:

Case Keemun disagrees.  
 

against non weaklings, case threw 135/189 for 1,346 yards with 8 TDs and 4 INTs.  That’s a 66% completion percentage and 7.12 ypa.  
 

How does it feel knowing Case who got benched and run out of town played better against non weaklings than Dak?

 

we could have case for 3 years 18M.  Imagine that... a better player for a whole lot less $.  We could have Case for 3 years for half the cost of having Dak for 1 year.

 

Still below average.

Can I ask you a question? How long have you been a lawyer? 

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1 minute ago, Matts4313 said:

tollface.jpg

What's your point?

You once again scoured the internet (or strictly ESPN and NFL Reddit as you say), Found an article that supports your case and posted it on the forum like it proves anything...

Congrats?

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2 minutes ago, TheGame316 said:

What's your point?

You once again scoured the internet (or strictly ESPN and NFL Reddit as you say), Found an article that supports your case and posted it on the forum like it proves anything...

Congrats?

Wooooosh. Good thing i called you dummy. I didnt scour anything. I went to Reddit, it was posted today on reddit, I read it on reddit. 

As I said. I look here. I look at reddit. Thats it. I didnt go searching at ESPN. Just like I dont search twitter. Those are all posted here or reddit. 

Not hard. 

Edited by Matts4313
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For my latest installment of useless Metaphors. I feel like we (forum members) are all on a small ship, that's taking on water, during a prolific storm, and there are a few of you guys just trying to get the last word on Dak. 

*also feel that @Matts4313 has a stashed scuba gear somewhere and will be at the bottom of the ocean letting the "few" gasp their last breath for the win..

 

Edited by resilient part 2
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From Reddit:

Quote

Recency bias vs. Legacy. When comparing QBs its hard to find a middle ground. That is also due in no small part that the older QBs are more experienced and thus are likely to play better. That will affect recency bias as well making people think that they have always been good. There is also a change in how the game is played over a long period. So what is a good amount of time to judge QBs over now. One season isn't enough and maybe not even two. 3-4 is probably enough tape as well as nearly a full contract for the younger QBs. With that said let's look at QBs over the last few years to see how good each QB really is.

 

For this comparison we will be looking at QBs from 2016-2019 with at least 30 starts. The stats used will be Passer Rating, ANY/A, QBR, and DVOA. These stats address all or nearly all aspects of the game including passing, rushing, situation, supporting cast, and opponent adjusting. While not all addressed equally they are not all equally important. It is also impossible to judge how much each factor is important to each individual. That is just the nature of the sport. Each stat is used in comparison for each other to create a standard deviation within each stat as well as combined for a total analysis. I call this the Quarterback Performance Deviation. Each score is a standard deviation multiplied by 15 and set to 100 for an easier visual. This is the same as how Pro Football Reference will do their era adjusted scoring so it seemed appropriate. This stat is similar to the Quarterback Performance Percentile for 2019 posted a few days ago but with EPA switched for DVOA. Raw stats are pulled from Pro Football Reference and Football Outsiders. (Note: 15 game seasons were calculated as whole seasons. Shortened seasons were calculated according to number of games. This is to avoid counting a 9 game season as equal to a 16 game season. This would occur if only using season stats and averaging them).

 

Special thank to u/signal-or-noise for the calculations and z scores! He also suggested using z score to show how far apart quarterback performance is rather than using percentile. This wouldn't be possible without him.

 

 

Rank Player QBPD PR ANY/A DVOA QBR PR DEV ANY/A DEV DVOA DEV QBR DEV
1 Mahomes 135.5 108.9 8.57 34.5 78.0 2.07 2.73 2.24 2.45
2 Brees 126.6 108.2 7.86 31.2 68.8 1.98 1.78 1.99 1.35
3 Ryan 117.4 102.0 7.39 20.9 66.7 1.16 1.16 1.22 1.10
4 Brady 115.2 99.2 7.36 18.8 66.4 0.79 1.12 1.06 1.07
5 Watson 112.0 101.0 6.83 11.7 67.8 1.03 0.42 0.53 1.24
6 Prescott 110.6 97.0 6.92 12.6 67.4 0.50 0.54 0.60 1.19
7 Luck 110.4 97.6 6.90 10.5 67.8 0.58 0.51 0.44 1.24
8 Wilson 109.3 100.6 6.90 10.6 62.1 0.98 0.51 0.45 0.56
9 Roethlisberger 108.8 94.2 6.91 16.1 64.4 0.13 0.52 0.86 0.83
10 Rodgers 107.9 98.9 6.86 11.4 60.6 0.75 0.46 0.51 0.38
11 Cousins 107.3 99.1 6.97 9.3 59.2 0.78 0.60 0.35 0.21
12 Rivers 106.1 94.1 6.99 15.3 58.1 0.12 0.63 0.80 0.08
13 Stafford 105.4 95.9 6.70 10.2 60.9 0.36 0.24 0.42 0.42
14 A. Smith 102.7 95.0 6.73 7.0 57.6 0.24 0.28 0.18 0.02
15 Carr 101.3 94.5 6.65 11.8 52.8 0.17 0.18 0.54 -0.54
16 Wentz 99.8 92.7 6.30 3.7 60.5 -0.06 -0.29 -0.07 0.37
17 Tannehill 98.5 100.5 6.66 -2.6 48.8 0.96 0.19 -0.54 -1.02
18 Goff 96.3 91.9 6.73 0.2 51.0 -0.17 0.28 -0.33 -0.76
19 Winston 94.6 87.6 6.27 1.4 56.2 -0.73 -0.33 -0.24 -0.14
20 Mariota 92.3 89.1 6.13 -1.9 53.1 -0.54 -0.51 -0.49 -0.51
21 Fitzpatrick 90.2 83.5 6.03 -1.8 55.5 -1.27 -0.64 -0.48 -0.22
22 Keenum 89.0 86.8 5.88 -1.1 50.5 -0.84 -0.84 -0.43 -0.82
23 Dalton 88.0 86.4 5.85 -2.5 49.8 -0.89 -0.88 -0.54 -0.90
24 Taylor 86.8 87.5 5.67 -13.3 54.8 -0.75 -1.12 -1.35 -0.31
25 Trubisky 83.6 85.8 5.56 -7.7 47.2 -0.97 -1.27 -0.93 -1.21
26 Newton 82.7 82.6 5.59 -7.1 48.0 -1.39 -1.23 -0.88 -1.11
27 Manning 82.3 86.0 5.77 -14.7 46.2 -0.94 -0.99 -1.45 -1.33
28 Bortles 81.3 81.0 5.58 -8.7 47.7 -1.60 -1.24 -1.00 -1.15
29 Brisset 81.1 84.6 5.63 -11.7 44.6 -1.13 -1.18 -1.23 -1.52
30 Flacco 77.1 83.0 5.29 -24.2 49.2 -1.34 -1.63 -2.16 -0.97

 

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On 5/30/2020 at 5:26 PM, Rtnldave said:

Eh, what the trucks the difference? Every QB misses a layup once in awhile. 

Bottom line, Dak is our QB. I watched Trent Dilfer, Nick Foles, Johnson (Tampa Bay) all win SBs. Why in the hell can't we with Dak? 

New coach, new blood, great draft, fingers crossed.

The difference being all 3 had some pretty amazing defenses. 

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