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Dak Thread....still debating, beating a dead horse


WizardHawk

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26 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Thank you for proving to call that he hugely over exaggerated

You do know what Day 3 picks are right? 2 out of the 3 articles had him pegged there or after and you say he proved your point?

Seriously Matts?

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15 hours ago, Calvert28 said:

Many had him going late round or undrafted.

Have you shown a single article that shows he was projected as undrafted? 

6th

Day 2 (2nd or 3rd)

3rd/4th

3rd round

US

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@HelmanDC 19s19 seconds ago
I like Dak more than any other QB that has gone since Paxton Lynch. Would've applauded this pick at 67, let alone at 135.

 

 

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@SportsByDallas 55s55 seconds ago
1st round grade on that kid.

 

 

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@dpbrugler 17s18 seconds ago
Really like this pick for Dallas. Grew from a thrower to a passer in 2015. Great addition to the QB meeting room. #Dak

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Whether you like it or not, this was in the cards for the past couple of months. I would have disliked the pick at 67. Would have been okay with it at 101. Perfectly fine with it at 135.

Interestingly - in the 2016 draft, the people that hated the pick (Daboys was timid, Plan called it terrible, so did Calvert) still hate him. Maybe it has nothing to do with Dak. Maybe you either suck at judging QBs or you are stubborn as hell and cant admit you are wrong....

4th round

4th rounder by the Cowboys

 

sooooooooo.... you want to rethink that "MANY/UDFA comment"?

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4 years ago:

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The same Jerry Jones that desperately tried to trade up in the 1st for Paxton Lynch, Then targeted Connor Cook, only to settle for Dak Prescott when Cook was picked. And then, like a child, sulked after the draft about possibly missing out on a franchise guy.

We lucked out. Plain and Simple. Jerry and the staff liked Dak but not above a decent sized list of other QBs.

Today

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dump dak we can easily find a replacement QBs are overrated bro and FA found Romo and Dak sooooooo wazzzup

 

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http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/09/nfl-quarterback-rankings-week-3-carson-wentz-dak-prescott-matt-ryan-falcons-cowboys-eagles

Wentz throws 27% of his passes as screens
He is 3rd in throwing distance (IE 3rd 'worst', he throws very short)
He is only pressured on 8% of drop backs
70% of the time he throws to his first read (IE he doesnt read the field, he is just going managing the play as designed)


Dak throws screens on 6% of throws
He is pressured double the amount of Wentz (16%)
Dak throws to his 1st target on a mere 40% of plays


A lot of this is due to playcalling. They run a WCO, we run an Air Croyall. Our offense is more difficult. Its worth noting that statistically the two are very similar players. Wentz is doing it by dinking and dunking (65% of his passes are less than 5 yards) where as Dak is using more of the field/WRs.

4 years ago

Nothings changed

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What I said on Dak via the old footballs future archives:


homer_80x80.png
PostPosted: Sat Apr 30, 2016 2:38 pm    Post subject:  Reply with quote

Poor mans Donnovan McNabb. I like him as a back up, as long as you understand that's all he might ever be. His mobility gives a dimension that may give us a punchers chance if/when Romo doesn't play. And Elliott of course.
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1 hour ago, Matts4313 said:

Interestingly - in the 2016 draft, the people that hated the pick (Daboys was timid, Plan called it terrible, so did Calvert) still hate him. Maybe it has nothing to do with Dak. Maybe you either suck at judging QBs or you are stubborn as hell and cant admit you are wrong...

Show me where you correctly predicted his career in 2016. You just waited till fair weather, my dude.

You basically retweeted @flyingmonkey30 with:

Whether you like it or not, this was in the cards for the past couple of months. I would have disliked the pick at 67. Would have been okay with it at 101. Perfectly fine with it at 135.

 

For a guy who thinks Dak is a locked in Hall of Famer why would you be upset at taking the HOFr at 67 overall??

 

Is it that you suck at evaluating QBs?

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So I described Dak, before he played a snap, as a guy that gives us a punchers chance. 
 

What a better way to describe Dak? He might look like he’s losing the whole match, until he knocks your *** out. Then he sometimes just loses. 13-3 - 9-7 - 10-6 - 8-8

 

We got a punchers chance 

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6 hours ago, DaBoys said:

What I said on Dak via the old footballs future archives:


homer_80x80.png
PostPosted: Sat Apr 30, 2016 2:38 pm    Post subject:  Reply with quote

Poor mans Donnovan McNabb. I like him as a back up, as long as you understand that's all he might ever be. His mobility gives a dimension that may give us a punchers chance if/when Romo doesn't play. And Elliott of course.

Meh, I was more talking to your first post was tepid. "At least he might be better than Moore" or something like that.

5 hours ago, DaBoys said:

Show me where you correctly predicted his career in 2016.

I didnt? I never said I did? I never implied that I did?

5 hours ago, DaBoys said:

 You just waited till fair weather, my dude.

I literally wait on all draft prospects because I think its stupid to overreact. 

5 hours ago, DaBoys said:

You basically retweeted @flyingmonkey30 with:

Whether you like it or not, this was in the cards for the past couple of months. I would have disliked the pick at 67. Would have been okay with it at 101. Perfectly fine with it at 135.

Im not sure your point here, it had been in the cards for months. And if you recall correctly, I wanted Wentz. 

5 hours ago, DaBoys said:

For a guy who thinks Dak is a locked in Hall of Famer why would you be upset at taking the HOFr at 67 overall??

I also never said he is a "locked in HOF". So I am not sure what this statement is supposed to accomplish? Are you just pulling stuff out of your rear here?

5 hours ago, DaBoys said:

Is it that you suck at evaluating QBs?

I feel like I do pretty well tbh.

 

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13 hours ago, DaBoys said:

Show me where you correctly predicted his career in 2016. You just waited till fair weather, my dude.

You basically retweeted @flyingmonkey30 with:

Whether you like it or not, this was in the cards for the past couple of months. I would have disliked the pick at 67. Would have been okay with it at 101. Perfectly fine with it at 135.

 

For a guy who thinks Dak is a locked in Hall of Famer why would you be upset at taking the HOFr at 67 overall??

 

Is it that you suck at evaluating QBs?

I don't really remember saying that, but I'm not surprised I did and it's definitely how I felt. Good memory lol

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15 hours ago, flyingmonkey30 said:

I don't really remember saying that, but I'm not surprised I did and it's definitely how I felt. Good memory lol

Yeah, Matts posted the link to the archive.

 

I like saying archive 

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I don't really see this ESPN Article as 'destroying all trolls' which is unfair way of characterizing people with legit disagreements.  Trolling is doing what Shannon Sharpe is doing and saying Cowboys should pay whatever Dak is asking.  He doesn't believe that.  He is goofing around.  

The crux of argument isn't whether Dak has value, but what his value is.  A fancy car is nice and expensive, but you wouldn't pay ANYTHING for it.  Even if you could afford to pay anything for it.  It just doesn't work that way.    

I think Dak does not see any risk in holding out for 40/year or playing under tag for two consecutive years and then hitting free agency under a presumably much higher cap.  

I think there are two things he is not considering and they are related.  

1) Dallas could move on from him.  Older men are unpredictable and proud.  Especially rich old men.  Jerry's patience with this situation is not unlimited.  

2) Every team and its fans often values their own players more than others do.   Not always, but often.    Dak may not be worth as much on open market as he seems to believe and as many in this forum seem to believe.   I believe he is not.  

I believe zero other teams would pay him 35 million a year, much less 40 million.  At least not without a for sure significant rise in salary cap with new TV deals.  I don't think those are as guaranteed gigantic as people think with streaming services also offering games and changes in viewing habits.  

As an experiment go to every team forum and see if you can get a simple majority to agree to paying Dak 35 million/year.  I am betting answer would also be zero takers (simple majority).

Further, I think if you were to pay him greater than 35 you would damage your teams cap to point you would be unable to compete for superbowls.   Which is fine by me as I am not a Cowboys fan.  But were I one I would not want them to do it.

I would rather trade up for a promising rookie QB or even play with a middling veteran than over pay a non superstar QB and hamstring my teams cap.  

I have closely watched four 2019 Cowboys games now, every play, and you cannot convince me based on that he is a super star QB capable of carrying a team year in and year out under a top contract.  

You can cite stat after stat.  Stats don't ever tell a whole story.   Especially in football which has 22 players on field at one time.  You have to watch the context of each play and situation.  There are many, many variables.  

He is good.  But again, nobody said he wasn't good, like I said at start even with a good product you still have to put a market price on it.   Dak's price should not be 35 millions plus IMO.

But by all means, please pay that.  I am not going to troll like Shannon Sharpe and wish it on you and advocate it though.

Edited by dll2000
typo
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2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I don't really see this ESPN Article as 'destroying all trolls' which is unfair way of characterizing people with legit disagreements.  Trolling is doing what Shannon Sharpe is doing and saying Cowboys should pay whatever Dak is asking.  He doesn't believe that.  He is goofing around.  

The crux of argument isn't whether Dak has value, but what his value is.  A fancy car is nice and expensive, but you wouldn't pay ANYTHING for it.  Even if you could afford to pay anything for it.  It just doesn't work that way.    

I think Dak does not see any risk in holding out for 40/year or playing under tag for two consecutive years and then hitting free agency under a presumably much higher cap.  

I think there are two things he is not considering and they are related.  

1) Dallas could move on from him.  Older men are unpredictable and proud.  Especially rich old men.  Jerry's patience with this situation is not unlimited.  

Do you understand the issue at heart? The issue isnt over $$/yr. Its over how many years. Jerry wants to lock up Dak for 5 years. Dak wants to sign shorter term. 

IE - The Cowboys love Dak and want to keep him for his entire career. Dak wants options. 

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2) Every team and its fans often values their own players more than others do.   Not always, but often.    Dak may not be worth as much on open market as he seems to believe and as many in this forum seem to believe.   I believe he is not.  

Not this fanbase. As a rule of thumb, Cowboys fans are entitled and hate their QBs until they win a superbowl. This same fanbase hated Romo. 

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I believe zero other teams would pay him 35 million a year, much less 40 million.

Why do people still quote the $40m number? That was discredited within 45 seconds after Jane Slater said it. As for $35m, you are dead wrong. You either dont understand that Dak has been historically great his first 4 years or you dont understand the QB market. 

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 At least not without a for sure significant rise in salary cap with new TV deals.  I don't think those are as guaranteed gigantic as people think with streaming services also offering games and changes in viewing habits.  

As an experiment go to every team forum and see if you can get a simple majority to agree to paying Dak 35 million/year.  I am betting answer would also be zero takers (simple majority).

Fans are stupid. Thats like going to a room full of elderly people suffering from dementia and asking them to explain algerbra. 

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Further, I think if you were to pay him greater than 35 you would damage your teams cap to point you would be unable to compete for superbowls.   Which is fine by me as I am not a Cowboys fan.  But were I one I would not want them to do it.

Proven false numerous times. Most QBs in championship games or Superbowls are on second contracts. Most QBs in the playoffs are on second contracts. 

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I would rather trade up for a promising rookie QB or even play with a middling veteran than over pay a non superstar QB and hamstring my teams cap.  

Dak is a top 10 QB at worst. Advanced analytics all suggest he is closer to top 5. 

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I have closely watched four 2019 Cowboys games now, every play, and you cannot convince me based on that he is a super star QB capable of carrying a team year in and year out under a top contract.  

Oh. You watched 4 of his ~70 games and now you are an expert? Which 4 games?

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You can cite stat after stat.  Stats don't ever tell a whole story.   Especially in football which has 22 players on field at one time.  You have to watch the context of each play and situation.  There are many, many variables.  

Such as overrated passblocking OL play (2 out of 4 years, 1 year average, 1 year great). Inconsistent WR play (3 out of his 4 years). Mediocre to terrible Defense and Special teams (4 out of 4 years). A coaching staff that got gutted and demoted across the NFL (4 out of 4 years). 

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He is good.  But again, nobody said he wasn't good, like I said at start even with a good product you still have to put a market price on it.   Dak's price should not be 35 millions plus IMO.

But by all means, please pay that.  I am not going to troll like Shannon Sharpe and wish it on you and advocate it though.

I leave you with this:

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So let’s close things out with a quick recap of the 9 things critics claim, and what we actually know:

What they claim #1: Anyone could win with Dak Prescott’s supporting cast.

What we know: Three quarterbacks were unable to do so in 2015, and we know that making such a proclamation would mean Dallas had the best roster in the NFL for four straight years, which is ludicrous

What they claim #2: Ezekiel Elliott carries Dak Prescott.

What we know: The numbers tell us Dallas loses games at a much more frequent rate when two things happen: The Cowboys try to establish Zeke early, and Dak Prescott struggles. If Zeke carried Dak then those two things wouldn’t be true.

What they claim #3: Dak Prescott disappears in the clutch.

What we know: Dak Prescott’s numbers in the most clutch situations can very easily be argued to be the best in the NFL over the last quarter-century.

What they claim #4: Dak Prescott pads his stats in garbage time.

What we know: Dak Prescott had the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL when the game was within 10 points in either direction, and Dallas ranked 16th in the NFL in 4th quarter pass attempts when trailing by double digits.

What they claim #5: Dak Prescott isn’t an elite passer.

What we know: Standard statistics say he’s one of the 5-10 best in the NFL, and advanced metrics like QBR say he’s comfortably in the top 5 since he entered the league.

What they claim #6: Dak Prescott hasn’t won a Super Bowl/isn’t the best quarterback in the league, so he can’t be the highest paid.

What we know: Winning the Super Bowl or being the best player at the position has never been the way the quarterback market works.

What they claim #7: Dak Prescott is to blame for his receivers’ drops.

What we know: Dak’s receivers have struggled with drops, sometimes more egregiously, when playing with other quarterbacks. We also know that a third of Dak Prescott’s career interceptions have bounced off of his receivers’ hands.

What they claim #8: Dak Prescott doesn’t beat good teams/win big games.

What we know: Dak Prescott almost set an NFL season record in 2016 for beating the most teams at or above .500 at the time of the game, and there is a long history of Prescott winning big games with playoff implications, including the Rams game in 2019, both Eagles games in 2018, gutting it out on the road against the Raiders in 2017, and taking down the Lions and Bucs with the Giants hot on Dallas’ heels for the division title in late December 2016.

What they claim #9: “My eyes tell me…”

What we know: Your eyes don’t meet the requirements for this to be a valid argument. The players, coaches, and scouts who do have the credentials to rely on their eye test all tell us Dak Prescott is one of the league’s best quarterbacks.

In the end…

I hope you learned something today. My feeling is if you don’t believe in Dak Prescott yet, it goes deeper than his play on the field. Whether that’s stubbornness to admit you were wrong, loyalty to Tony Romo, or whatever else it may be, arguments against Dak Prescott as one of the best quarterbacks in the league are way past its expiration date.

https://bobbybeltetc.wordpress.com/2020/06/03/the-complete-defense-of-dak-prescott-debunking-the-nine-most-common-criticisms/

 

Edited by Matts4313
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Is anyone at home keeping count of how many sources/stats/analyst are saying Dak is top 10? Add another one.

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8
 

Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott
Dallas Cowboys · QB

UNDER PRESSURE: 80.5 passer rating. +0.0% completion rate above expectation, 49.3% completion rate.

As you can see, we're organizing by a combination of passer rating under pressure and completion percentage above expectation while under pressure, but Prescott is a unique member of this group in that he completed exactly the amount of pressured passes as was expected. He was satisfactory under pressure, you might say. But then, if you dive deeper into the numbers, you see Prescott attempted the third-most pressured passes (144) of anyone on this list. And you see he's one of just two on this list to break 1,000 passing yards under pressure. And then you see his 7:3 TD-INT ratio while under pressure, and his 167 pressures recorded and his three DIMES completed on pressured attempts. And you sit back and say, "You know, that's quite all right." THEN you dive deeper into the NGS record books and see Prescott is tied with Philip Rivers for the fourth-most touchdown passes completed under pressure since 2016 (19), whereupon you flip the page to discover Prescott has the highest single-season completion percentage above expectation under pressure in a single season since 2016, which for whatever reason was a banner year for that metric in the history of Next-Gen Stats. I'm sure other less fortunate franchises would be happy to secure this man's services for years to come.

https://www.nfl.com/news/top-10-qbs-under-pressure-ryan-tannehill-derek-carr-shine

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