Dak Thread....still debating, beating a dead horse

[Matts4313]

7 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

How many game winning drives did Dak have last year? Clutch

How many years have you been doing your profession? Is your entire career reflective of one disappointing year by your company?

Quote

This is verifiable hogwash, and it has been dating all the way back to Dak Prescott’s rookie season.

Over the last four years, there have been 23 quarterbacks to attempt at least 300 passes in the second half of games where the score is within a touchdown either direction. That’s regular season and playoffs. Of those 23 quarterbacks, Dak Prescott is the fifth-highest rated passer in the NFL. Even when you expand the minimum attempts to 100, and broaden the field to 47 quarterbacks, Dak Prescott still comes in ranked seventh in passer rating, ahead of guys like Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Aaron Rodgers, and Jared Goff.

But maybe you look at that criteria and scoff. Perhaps the qualification is too broad for your taste. It could conceivably include pass attempts with a 7 point lead at the beginning of the third quarter, and maybe you want that taken out.

Alright, fine. Let’s raise the stakes, and broaden the field of competitors.

Since 1994 – which is as far as we can go back for this particular search using Pro Football Reference – there have been 79 NFL quarterbacks who have attempted at least 40 passes in the fourth quarter or overtime of a tie game. Just as last time, this is regular season or playoffs.

Of those 79, here are the passer rating leaders:

Maybe you don’t care about passer rating. Maybe touchdowns is all you care about. Of those 79, here are the leaders in touchdown passes:

Maybe you think he’s just cheaply finishing off drives with goal-to-go touchdowns, and Ezekiel Elliott is truly to praise in these situations. Let’s look at the yards per attempt leaders among those 79 quarterbacks:

Perhaps you think he’s just irresponsibly chucking the ball around the yard, with no thought for accuracy. Here are the completion percentage leaders:

12 quarterbacks other than Dak Prescott appear in these statistical clusters. Those 12 quarterbacks combine for 67 Pro Bowl appearances, 8 MVP’s, and 13 Super Bowl titles. He is outperforming the very best quarterbacks of the last quarter-decade in the most critical situations.

Not only does Dak lead all 79 qualifying quarterbacks in completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown passes, and passer rating, but he’s one of only seven of the 79 who hasn’t thrown an interception under these circumstances.

Now there was a lot of discussion last year about how the Cowboys didn’t have a single game-winning drive, and that’s certainly not something you want to see, but even after going all of last year without a game-winning drive, Prescott still ranks 2nd in the NFL in game-winning drives over the last four years, just one behind Drew Brees. In fact, Dak set the NFL record for most game-winning drives in a player’s first three years with 14, just eclipsing Matt Ryan’s record.

But even without a game-winning drive last season, let’s consider two things:

1) There were no game-winning drives last season partly because when Dallas won they were blowing teams out. Seven of their eight victories were by double digits, and six of their victories were by 18 or more.

2) There were a few times in 2019 that Dak actually put them in position for a game-winning drive and it fell apart around him.

The Cowboys were without both starting tackles, Amari Cooper, and were getting nothing of substance from Ezekiel Elliott in week six against the Jets. They were on the road and trailed by as many as 18 in the game.

The Cowboys clawed back to within eight, and Dak Prescott drove them down the field, scored a touchdown, and was a two-point conversion away from overtime with momentum on their side. The patchwork offensive line wasn’t able to handle the Jets’ blitz on the conversion attempt, and it ended up costing them. There was also some horrible clock management from Jason Garrett, who refused to use his timeouts on the drive, leaving just over 40 seconds left when the conversion failed.

Week 10 against the Vikings at AT&T Stadium, down four with under five minutes to play, the Cowboys start the drive at their own six-yard line. Dak leads Dallas to the Minnesota 11, going 6-7 for 79 yards along the way, and sets up for 2nd and 2 with less than two minutes to go.

Dallas called Ezekiel Elliott’s number three straight times and turned the ball over on downs. Dak was about to give you that game-winning drive before it was taken out of his hands by the coaching staff. (And quick sidebar, before you tell me that’s proof the team doesn’t trust him, remember that saying that would mean holding up Garrett’s regime as wise sages of late game decision-making.)

Then of course there was week 12 against the Patriots, a brutal game for Dak Prescott, and a dreary, muddy day at Foxboro. Poor as the game was, the Cowboys converted 4th and 11 with a little under two minutes remaining in a two-point game, putting them right up near midfield. Or so they thought. A booth review revealed that Amari Cooper wasn’t able to corral the ball, and it was handed back to the Patriots on downs.

Cowboys legend Don Meredith had the genius saying that “if if’s and but’s were candy and nuts, we’d all have a merry Christmas.” Those three games didn’t count, obviously, and I’m not claiming they should, but context to the lack of game-winning drives is important. If the ball bounces a different way, Dak may have as many as three last year.

https://bobbybeltetc.wordpress.com/2020/06/03/the-complete-defense-of-dak-prescott-debunking-the-nine-most-common-criticisms/

 

Edited June 5, 2020 by Matts4313

[dll2000]

21 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Do you understand the issue at heart? The issue isnt over $$/yr. Its over how many years. Jerry wants to lock up Dak for 5 years. Dak wants to sign shorter term. 

IE - The Cowboys love Dak and want to keep him for his entire career. Dak wants options.

Right and I think it is foolish on Daks part.   He could still be franchised at end of a 4 year deal.   The team can always keep him 'locked' if they want to.  Longer deal means he can demand more guaranteed and upfront money which he can then invest in lowered market and low loan interest rates.  

If he outplays it or NFL market changes a ton then he can hold out later or more likely they will extend him.  If he underplays it they will cut or trade him minute it makes financial sense.   

Not this fanbase. As a rule of thumb, Cowboys fans are entitled and hate their QBs until they win a superbowl. This same fanbase hated Romo. 

I was speaking of people like you.  I believe you over value him.  

Why do people still quote the $40m number? That was discredited within 45 seconds after Jane Slater said it. As for $35m, you are dead wrong. You either dont understand that Dak has been historically great his first 4 years or you dont understand the QB market. 

I am not sure he hasn't demanded 40 million at some point and I think neither do you know that.  In any event as I have stated, I believe 35 million is too much in 2020.  

Fans are stupid. Thats like going to a room full of elderly people suffering from dementia and asking them to explain algerbra. 

I don't believe most GMs are jumping at chance to sign him for 4 years 35 million per in 2020 either.  If cap went up a bunch that might be different.   I would love for him to be released and hit unrestricted FA and see which of us is correct.  Not all fans are stupid.  And point of asking other forums was to illustrate most people don't think of him as highly as you do.  

Dak is a top 10 QB at worst. Advanced analytics all suggest he is closer to top 5. 

Only top 5 or so are really true difference makers in any given year and he is outside of that group IMO.  I don't think he will ever be a true difference making top 4 or 5 QB.  

You can't say for one season for all marbles you wouldn't rather have old guard of Brady, Brees or Rodgers leading this team.   Mahomes is best QB in football.  Jackson is a unique talent given a system like Baltimore's - so he is better.   Russell Wilson is better.   Watson is better.  

I think all things being equal a healthy Wentz is better.  I think you would disagree there, but that is fine.  Tannehill played better than Dak last year when given talent around him and he surprised people.

Roethlisberger or Rivers can still play if healthy, but given age Dak is probably better in 2020.   But he will never be as good as Roethlisberger was at his best.   

So I would say he is grouped with Stafford, Cousins, Ryan and perhaps Garropollo and just above Goff and Carr.    You could cite Staffords 2019 various stats to say he is truly great too and you can see I am not making that case either.     Stats don't tell whole story.   

Oh. You watched 4 of his ~70 games and now you are an expert? Which 4 games?  

First 4 in order.  Not claiming expert status.  Dak doesn't have 'IT', not for long enough stretches anyway.  

Such as overrated passblocking OL play (2 out of 4 years, 1 year average, 1 year great). Inconsistent WR play (3 out of his 4 years). Mediocre to terrible Defense and Special teams (4 out of 4 years). A coaching staff that got gutted and demoted across the NFL (4 out of 4 years). 

I leave you with this:

I was really impressed with his rookie season especially for a rookie.  I have not been overwhelmed by him since in games I have seen.   He makes some fine plays, but he doesn't string it all together enough.  

My opinion is he is good, but not a top difference making QB.  If you pay those guys max contracts you will be in same predicament as NBA teams that do that.

I don't watch NBA but a lot of guys get max contracts that aren't Lebron James or Kobe Bryant, true difference makers, and they become anchors.  

I hope you learned something today. My feeling is if you don’t believe in Dak Prescott yet, it goes deeper than his play on the field. Whether that’s stubbornness to admit you were wrong, loyalty to Tony Romo, or whatever else it may be, arguments against Dak Prescott as one of the best quarterbacks in the league are way past its expiration date.

Loyalty to Tony Romo, LOL.  

 

[dll2000]

Can he hold off Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Darnold and even Mayfield?

Burrow, Allen and Darnold are more talented players I think.  Mayfield has some serious weapons this year, but seems to be struggling with dysfunctional franchise and his height.  

We'll see how they develop.  

I forgot about little guy in AZ.  I didn't see much of him last year.  

 

 

Edited June 5, 2020 by dll2000

[Matts4313]

1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

Do you understand the issue at heart? The issue isnt over $$/yr. Its over how many years. Jerry wants to lock up Dak for 5 years. Dak wants to sign shorter term. 

IE - The Cowboys love Dak and want to keep him for his entire career. Dak wants options.

Right and I think it is foolish on Daks part.   He could still be franchised at end of a 4 year deal.   The team can always keep him 'locked' if they want to.  Longer deal means he can demand more guaranteed and upfront money which he can then invest in lowered market and low loan interest rates.  

If he outplays it or NFL market changes a ton then he can hold out later or more likely they will extend him.  If he underplays it they will cut or trade him minute it makes financial sense.   

Not this fanbase. As a rule of thumb, Cowboys fans are entitled and hate their QBs until they win a superbowl. This same fanbase hated Romo. 

I was speaking of people like you.  I believe you over value him.  

I guess you are entitled to that opinion.

1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

Why do people still quote the $40m number? That was discredited within 45 seconds after Jane Slater said it. As for $35m, you are dead wrong. You either dont understand that Dak has been historically great his first 4 years or you dont understand the QB market. 

I am not sure he hasn't demanded 40 million at some point and I think neither do you know that.  In any event as I have stated, I believe 35 million is too much in 2020.  

Yeah we do. Both Dak himself and his agent denied it. 

1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

 

Fans are stupid. Thats like going to a room full of elderly people suffering from dementia and asking them to explain algerbra. 

I don't believe most GMs are jumping at chance to sign him for 4 years 35 million per in 2020 either.  If cap went up a bunch that might be different.   I would love for him to be released and hit unrestricted FA and see which of us is correct.  Not all fans are stupid.  And point of asking other forums was to illustrate most people don't think of him as highly as you do.  

GMs were jumping to pay 8 other QBs over $30m/yr, including multiple QBs who are worse than Dak. So I dont feel like you have any basis in your argument. 

Additionally, if you venture off FF.com and look elsewhere, the vast majority of people understand and accept that Dak is going to get a ~$35m contract and feel is justified. 

1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

Dak is a top 10 QB at worst. Advanced analytics all suggest he is closer to top 5. 

Only top 5 or so are really true difference makers in any given year and he is outside of that group IMO.  I don't think he will ever be a true difference making top 4 or 5 QB.  

You can't say for one season for all marbles you wouldn't rather have old guard of Brady, Brees or Rodgers leading this team.   Mahomes is best QB in football.  Jackson is a unique talent given a system like Baltimore's - so he is better.   Russell Wilson is better.   Watson is better.  

I think all things being equal a healthy Wentz is better.  I think you would disagree there, but that is fine.  Tannehill played better than Dak last year when given talent around him and he surprised people.

Roethlisberger or Rivers can still play if healthy, but given age Dak is probably better in 2020.   But he will never be as good as Roethlisberger was at his best.   

So I would say he is grouped with Stafford, Cousins, Ryan and perhaps Garropollo and just above Goff and Carr.    You could cite Staffords 2019 various stats to say he is truly great too and you can see I am not making that case either.     Stats don't tell whole story.   

This list is truly terrible and shows your lack of knowledge on how good Dak is. Here is the entire list of QBs that I would 100% for sure take over Dak for a 5 year contract:

1. Mahomes

2. Wilson

If Jackson puts up another stellar year, then him as well. Thats it. 

If you look at 1 year, then you can lump Rodgers and Brees. 

Dak is better than everyone else you listed. And once again your ignorance is showing as the EAGLES OWN PUBLICATION SAID DAK IS BETTER THAN WENTZ. 

1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

Oh. You watched 4 of his ~70 games and now you are an expert? Which 4 games?  

First 4 in order.  Not claiming expert status.  Dak doesn't have 'IT', not for long enough stretches anyway.  

First 4 of the season? When Dak was tied with Jackson for MVP lead? 

What is "It"? Define it. 

1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

Such as overrated passblocking OL play (2 out of 4 years, 1 year average, 1 year great). Inconsistent WR play (3 out of his 4 years). Mediocre to terrible Defense and Special teams (4 out of 4 years). A coaching staff that got gutted and demoted across the NFL (4 out of 4 years). 

I leave you with this:

I was really impressed with his rookie season especially for a rookie.  I have not been overwhelmed by him since in games I have seen.   He makes some fine plays, but he doesn't string it all together enough.  

My opinion is he is good, but not a top difference making QB.  If you pay those guys max contracts you will be in same predicament as NBA teams that do that.

I don't watch NBA but a lot of guys get max contracts that aren't Lebron James or Kobe Bryant, true difference makers, and they become anchors.  

I hope you learned something today. My feeling is if you don’t believe in Dak Prescott yet, it goes deeper than his play on the field. Whether that’s stubbornness to admit you were wrong, loyalty to Tony Romo, or whatever else it may be, arguments against Dak Prescott as one of the best quarterbacks in the league are way past its expiration date.

Loyalty to Tony Romo, LOL.  

That was from an article => hence the link. I wasnt saying you had loyalty to Romo, the author of that article was saying it to the audience. 

https://bobbybeltetc.wordpress.com/2020/06/03/the-complete-defense-of-dak-prescott-debunking-the-nine-most-common-criticisms/

[Matts4313]

4 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Can he hold off Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Darnold and even Mayfield?

Dak, individually, has the most impressive first 4 years of any QB not named 'Wilson' in 25 years... So I feel pretty strongly that he can.

4 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Burrow, Allen and Darnold are more talented players I think.  Mayfield has some serious weapons this year, but seems to be struggling with dysfunctional franchise and his height.  

We'll see how they develop.  

I forgot about little guy in AZ.  I didn't see much of him last year.  

Define "talent". How are they more talented? 

 

People who knock Dak always use nebulous terms. "My eye test" - "Talent" - "It factor"... All different ways of saying "I have no evidence to back this up, but you cant disprove me because its my opinion". 

[HTTRDynasty]

Thought I'd drop this here.  He's a Redskins fan:

 

[quiller]

Burrow????   Had yet to play a NFL down.  Only had 1 good season in college so I don’t anoint him the next Mahomes yet he has to prove it two three years in the NFL. Allen Donald had okay games from time to time but neither have come close to doing what Dak did in years 1-2.  Mayfield has shown me he is a level bellow and unless his circumstances change by going to a better organization he will continue to be middling.  
 

I also totally believe Mahomes and Wilson are the only QB I would chose right now over Dak in a four year deal.  Rogers Or Roethlisberger on a  Two year  If we already had a replacement in the wings waiting. .  I would not pick any QB on a 1 year deal because then what....   drafting a rookie is just too risky ...
 

Stafford and  Ryan Would also suit maybe three more years.   
 

I would not want Watson  no thanks and Jackson has to prove it another year or two I’ve already shown that Dak’s first two years were better that Jackson’s.  But if Jackson can figure out how to play when he can’t run then he might move up the list 

Edited June 8, 2020 by quiller

[Matts4313]

"we owe him back pay"

[Matts4313]

 

[buddy_z34]

39 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

 

And what has that amounted to in terms of division titles?? 2?? 

[TheGame316]

7 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

 

Again, Which Wins (Of the 8) did Dak alone get us that a replacement level QB would not have?

If you can't say specifically which games, then it is another garbage stat, once again, cherry picked by you

[cromagnum]

On 6/5/2020 at 3:17 PM, DaBoys said:

How many game winning drives did Dak have last year? Clutch

I love it when posters answer a question by not answering the question but ask another question. Some good politicians here lol. 

[cromagnum]

21 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

 

The same pff who just recently had Wentz ahead of Dak lol

[Matts4313]

1 hour ago, cromagnum said:

The same pff who just recently had Wentz ahead of Dak lol

Yeah that makes no sense. The two were close. I guess the aggregate score would be higher for Dak because he has played more games.

[beardown3231]

please delete

Edited June 16, 2020 by beardown3231
please delete