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MKnight82

Will Doctson Make the Roster?

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So after the first preseason game I was watching the postgame show, and Trevor Matich brought up that he thinks Doctson is seriously at risk of not making the roster.  Its not because he thinks the younger guys will necessarily be better this year than Doctson, but because Doctson hasn't shown he has any upside left plus is more expensive.  

Then I just saw this article:

https://www.hogshaven.com/2019/8/13/20802257/redskins-players-to-watch-in-thursday-nights-preseason-game-against-the-bengals 

Unless he wins a starting spot outright, I believe Doctson could lose the battle for a roster spot entirely. Harmon, Sims and Davis all appear to have long-term futures with the Redskins, while Doctson does not. They are all cheaper, younger, and (I believe) willing to play special teams.

Still, cutting Doctson is not the best option — trading him, even for an insubstantial return — would have clear salary cap advantages. $1.2m of his $1.8 salary is guaranteed, so the team would have extra incentive to trade him, even for a swap of 7th round picks (the equivalent of a ham sandwich), as the salary obligation would go with Doctson to his new team.

To clarify a bit, if Doctson is cut outright, there is a $2.57m dead cap hit; if he is traded, the dead cap is just $1.37m, giving the Redskins a $1.2m cap space incentive to find a trade partner, even if the trade consideration is insignificant.

In my mind, Doctson is very much “on the bubble”.

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Posted (edited)

They're guessing. And the guy just contradicted his argument by showing the salary cap ramifications for the Redskins cutting or trading Doctson. It doesn't make sense to do so especially when Robert Davis seems like a perfect candidate for the Practice Squad given that it seems he isn't 100% back from his 2018 knee injury.

Even if the only reason Doctson makes the team is bc they don't want to absorb the salary cap hit, I think he makes the team. IMO, even if  Doctson is the 4th wr bc TMc had beaten him out to be the starter he still makes it.

Doctson has two weeks left this preseason to make his case to be a starter on the team, this Thursday’s game and next Thursday's game are as important for him as they are for any other player and these two game may be more important for him than anyone else on the team. 

Doctson still has the ups and athletic ability to make plays on 50/50 balls and he’s displayed that some over the last two years, but clearly not enough. It remains to be seen if he will be more consistent in the other areas of the position though so that he remains a starter.

I just don't know why they'd cut a guy who can at least put up average numbers for 3 guys who have proven nothing in the NFL.

I mean Davis is a nice story but he's coming off an awful knee injury and while he looks good out there so far and he had a TD reception when he wasn't covered vs the Browns, he's still favoring that leg and there's a question as to if he can hold up. 

Sims and Harmon, I like their size and potential but I don't know how you can trust either of them to even produce near or just over 40 receptions like Doctson has the last two years or 6 TDs like Doctson did in 2017. 

I think they put Robert Davis on the practice squad.

1. PRich

2. TMc or Doctson

3/slot: Quinn

4. TMc or Doctson

5. Sims

6. Harmon

Practice Squad:

Robert Davis and Darvin Kidsay

Edited by turtle28

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4 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

They're guessing.

True. We're all guessing. Independent of the above link, I had the same questions in my head.

As a side note, HH had an earlier projection chart where they had us potentially keeping 7 WRs but only 3 RBs (either Peterson or Guice as the starter, no explanation of what they'd do with the other (I assume trade?)). I cannot say I was a fan of that projection, but I understood its logic.

5 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

And the guy just contradicted his argument by showing the salary cap ramifications for the Redskins cutting or trading Doctson.

  1. Cutting him is the same as keeping him from a salary cap perspective, except he takes a roster spot that they may want to give someone else.
  2. Trading him would save $1.82M in space (as his salary would go to the new team). Washington would be on the hook for his signing bonus part of $1.38M.

Yes, I'd much rather spend the cap space on a player on the roster than have a hole where the player was, but if he gets outplayed, I'd rather have the best players on the roster.

7 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

It doesn't make sense to do so especially when Robert Davis seems like a perfect candidate for the Practice Squad given that it seems he isn't 100% back from his 2018 knee injury.

That makes the assumption that they can successfully get him through waivers. I'm not sure I would be making that assumption.

8 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Even if the only reason Doctson makes the team is bc they don't want to absorb the salary cap hit, I think he makes the team.

It's really more a matter of him taking a roster spot from someone else. If they decide they want Robert Davis more than Josh Doctson, I'm sure they'd accept a 2021 7th round conditional pick for him (yes you read that correctly).

9 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

IMO, even if  Doctson is the 4th wr bc TMc had beaten him out to be the starter he still makes it.

Doctson has two weeks left this preseason to make his case to be a starter on the team, this Thursday’s game and next Thursday's game are as important for him as they are for any other player and these two game may be more important for him than anyone else on the team. 

If he gets beaten out by a third round rookie and is WR4, does it make sense to keep him though?

Paul Richardson WR 27 $7,218,750 3.73%
Josh Doctson WR 26 $3,197,615 1.65%
Terry McLaurin WR 23 $745,805 0.39%
Brian Quick WR 30 $645,000 0.33%
Jehu Chesson WR 25 $645,000 0.33%
Trey Quinn WR 23 $587,267 0.30%
Robert Davis WR 24 $570,000 0.29%
Kelvin Harmon WR 22 $526,960 0.27%
Steven Sims Jr. WR 0 $500,000 0.26%
Darvin Kidsy WR 24 $495,000 0.26%
Cam Sims WR 23 $495,000 0.26%

Richardson's contract guarantees him a roster spot (he'd be a nearly $6M cap loss if they cut him), and Quinn has "already won a spot" per Gruden. Quick's a JAG and the "old man" of the bunch, so he's eminently replaceable.

That leaves Doctson, McLaurin, Chesson, Davis, Harmon, Steven Sims, Kidsy, and Cam Sims for four spots. Chesson, Steven Sims, and Kidsy are likely fighting for practice squad spots (hopefully Chesson does not win). McLaurin and Harmon are likely making the roster due to the draft status.

So, if it comes down to Davis, Doctson, and Cam Sims, do you really want them to risk exposing Davis or Cam Sims to waivers to keep a guy that most of us think is gone next year anyway? Sure, I'd like to the compensatory pick for Doctson, but I'd also like to have the best players on the roster so I'd be perfectly willing to sacrifice that pick to keep players that could help us going forward.

23 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Doctson still has the ups and athletic ability to make plays on 50/50 balls and he’s displayed that some over the last two years, but clearly not enough. It remains to be seen if he will be more consistent in the other areas of the position though so that he remains a starter.

Does he have more ups/athletic ability than Davis? I don't know. Maybe? At the same time, he hasn't shown that he could do it regularly so I wouldn't count it either. That feels solely like us projecting what he could do, which is effectively the same thing as what we're doing with Davis.

24 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I just don't know why they'd cut a guy who can at least put up average numbers for 3 guys who have proven nothing in the NFL.

Let me spin that around for a second: why would they want to keep a guy who puts up average numbers when one of the younger, cheaper guys might turn into a golden ticket?

Imagine for a moment that you know nothing of Doctson, Davis, or Cam Sims' draft position, and I gave you those numbers above. I then told you that Doctson has averaged 40 catches for 515 yards over the past two years on average as a starter. Would you be willing to roll the dice?

27 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

I mean Davis is a nice story but he's coming off an awful knee injury and while he looks good out there so far and he had a TD reception when he wasn't covered vs the Browns, he's still favoring that leg and there's a question as to if he can hold up. 

And that is a completely fair point. However, Davis did what he needed to do (make a case for himself). Doctson now needs to respond.

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The other thing that the article points out

Quote

There will be obvious roster and salary advantages for the Redskins if Doctson loses his spot here, so Josh will have to perform well in the remaining preseason games. His draft status may help him a bit here, but he is widely perceived as a Scot McCloughan pick, which means that the front office won’t have much skin in the game if they want to cut him. Also, if he is not seen as a “starter” then his lack of Special Teams play may become more critical.

 

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The Redskins have enough injury prone WR's that losing another one at this juncture won't matter.  Doctson has worn out his welcome to me, and I'd be happy to see him go out the door, the way it happens doesn't matter.  

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Yes, it makes sense to keep Doctson, I already explained why.

And I certainly think that Robert Davis would clear waivers. He's a former 6th round pick who's shown nothing in the NFL and is coming off a major knee injury.

Why would anyone claim him off waivers?

As far as special teams goes, they have guys who do that. 

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Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, taylor made said:

About 12 games too late imo. Give the money to Trent Williams.

That doesn't make sense. The Redskins lose money by cutting or trading Doctson, they don't gain money.

Edited by turtle28

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For as bad as people think the Redskins WR position is, it could be worse. The Giants’ Golden Tate’s 4 game suspension was just upheld by the NFL and Amari Cooper is dealing with plantar fasciitis.

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1 hour ago, turtle28 said:

And I certainly think that Robert Davis would clear waivers. He's a former 6th round pick who's shown nothing in the NFL and is coming off a major knee injury.

Why would anyone claim him off waivers?

Same reason that Washington drafted him: big body, good speed, was raw but may now be developing

25 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

For as bad as people think the Redskins WR position is, it could be worse. The Giants’ Golden Tate’s 4 game suspension was just upheld by the NFL and Amari Cooper is dealing with plantar fasciitis.

That's almost as strong an argument against allowing Davis to hit the waiver wire than what I came up with. Do you think the Cowboys or Giants wouldn't love to pick up a receiver that they will play in week 2 or 4, respectively? One that could conceivably help them deal with the shortcomings of their WR corps and could give them insight into Washington's playbook? It's potentially Nate Sudfeld all over again, with the advantage that Davis could actually play for them.

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18 minutes ago, Woz said:

Same reason that Washington drafted him: big body, good speed, was raw but may now be developing

That's almost as strong an argument against allowing Davis to hit the waiver wire than what I came up with. Do you think the Cowboys or Giants wouldn't love to pick up a receiver that they will play in week 2 or 4, respectively? One that could conceivably help them deal with the shortcomings of their WR corps and could give them insight into Washington's playbook? It's potentially Nate Sudfeld all over again, with the advantage that Davis could actually play for them.

I think you're overrating Robert Davis

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The best move is to try to trade him for another draft bust then you cut that guy and it’s not a total organizational failure. That’s how you play the politics like Bruce does. Like a John Ross or Nkimdeche

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Doc Draper said:

The best move is to try to trade him for another draft bust then you cut that guy and it’s not a total organizational failure. That’s how you play the politics like Bruce does. Like a John Ross or Nkimdeche

Ross has more years left on his deal then Doctson does, I don't think either team would be interested but for different reasons.  Nkemdiche was already cut by the Cardinals. The Dolphins signed him and put him on the PUP list.

Edited by turtle28

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1 hour ago, Doc Draper said:

The best move is to try to trade him for another draft bust then you cut that guy and it’s not a total organizational failure. That’s how you play the politics like Bruce does. Like a John Ross or Nkimdeche

Ross is a complete bust, but I think Bob Kim would be a solid bounceback candidate with Tomsula coaching him.  

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