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A few predictions about the MLF Offense


skibrett15

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Feel free to add your own.

1) We will see mostly 2 TE and/or 2 RB sets.  Also 3TE.  MLF Titans led the league in 3TE sets.

  • Assuming this is tonyan and graham, I'm ok with that as base. 
  • I do think it keeps one of our better skill position players in Allison/MVS off the field so it is a real trade-off

2) We will see a fairly even split between Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams.  Probably 60-40

  • essentially we will replay the Williams sucks and is awful discussion under MM from last year.
  • MLF did this with Henry/Dion Lewis in Tennessee
  • "it will keep Jones Fresh"

2a) The team will run the ball quite a lot.  Probably too much.  And by running the ball I mean calling run plays outside of "kill the clock when winning scenarios".  Obviously winning teams run the ball more because they run out the clock.

  • This team should pass the ball at least 65% of the time.  I expect it will be passing 55-60% of the time.

3) Play action will be used FAR more than in previous offense.

  • Play action will no longer be the "shot play" archetype but will focus on deep ins and crossers to Graham and Adams.  There's no reason Rodgers can't do this, but this isn't a play we've seen a ton from him, so it is a "new" thing.
  • Of the total dropbacks, play action will be a pretty high percentage, maybe close to 50%.  Folks will point to the "balance" between rush/pass as the reason why the play action is effective.  This is a red herring and won't be the reason.  The reason is just that play action is always effective, whether or not you are a threat to run.

4) Passes outside of screen passes will go to the RBs.  And they won't be that effective.

  • that's mostly a symptom of it being a check down and not the primary option.
  • There will be some designed plays down the field for RBs.  These will be effective, and hopefully feature Aaron Jones.

 

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17 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

Feel free to add your own.

1) We will see mostly 2 TE and/or 2 RB sets.  Also 3TE.  MLF Titans led the league in 3TE sets.

  • Assuming this is tonyan and graham, I'm ok with that as base. 
  • I do think it keeps one of our better skill position players in Allison/MVS off the field so it is a real trade-off

2) We will see a fairly even split between Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams.  Probably 60-40

  • essentially we will replay the Williams sucks and is awful discussion under MM from last year.
  • MLF did this with Henry/Dion Lewis in Tennessee
  • "it will keep Jones Fresh"

2a) The team will run the ball quite a lot.  Probably too much.  And by running the ball I mean calling run plays outside of "kill the clock when winning scenarios".  Obviously winning teams run the ball more because they run out the clock.

  • This team should pass the ball at least 65% of the time.  I expect it will be passing 55-60% of the time.

3) Play action will be used FAR more than in previous offense.

  • Play action will no longer be the "shot play" archetype but will focus on deep ins and crossers to Graham and Adams.  There's no reason Rodgers can't do this, but this isn't a play we've seen a ton from him, so it is a "new" thing.
  • Of the total dropbacks, play action will be a pretty high percentage, maybe close to 50%.  Folks will point to the "balance" between rush/pass as the reason why the play action is effective.  This is a red herring and won't be the reason.  The reason is just that play action is always effective, whether or not you are a threat to run.

4) Passes outside of screen passes will go to the RBs.  And they won't be that effective.

  • that's mostly a symptom of it being a check down and not the primary option.
  • There will be some designed plays down the field for RBs.  These will be effective, and hopefully feature Aaron Jones.

 

Agree with everything you're saying except that I'm not so down on the 3 WR sets. LaFleur averaged 2.45 WRs per snap last year in TN. I suspect this year it will be closer to 2.55. 

Still not nearly enough. 

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3 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Agree with everything you're saying except that I'm not so down on the 3 WR sets. LaFleur averaged 2.45 WRs per snap last year in TN. I suspect this year it will be closer to 2.55. 

Still not nearly enough. 

what do you mean not so down?  Like you think there will be a decent amount of 11?

 

My bigger concern is we are gonna run 12 and possibly 21 a good amount.  Like, close to 40%.  And probably some 13 as well.  13% of the plays for tennessee were in 13!

That's nuts when you consider they lost their best TE very early on, and Jonnu smith did absolutely nothing as a receiver.  Their other TEs were luke stocker and anthony firkser (who?).  Why the heck he wanted these guys on the field is beyond me.

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Just now, skibrett15 said:

what do you mean not so down?  Like you think there will be a decent amount of 11?

 

My bigger concern is we are gonna run 12 and possibly 21 a good amount.  Like, close to 40%.  And probably some 13 as well.  13% of the plays for tennessee were in 13!

That's nuts when you consider they lost their best TE very early on, and Jonnu smith did absolutely nothing as a receiver.  Their other TEs were luke stocker and anthony firkser (who?).  Why the heck he wanted these guys on the field is beyond me.

I think we'll get about 50% of our snaps out of the 11 personnel.

And yeah, there's no doubt we're going to see a ton of Vitale. My prayer is that we're getting Tonyan and not Lewis in our 12 sets. 

Trust me man, no one is more concerned than I am that we hired a kid who runs his grandpa's offense. 

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29 minutes ago, Cheech said:

I  completely disagree that play action works because it always does.

MlF's offense is designed to make many plays look the same.  This is graduate level stuff compared to MM's fake draw b.s.

I totally agree that it looks prettier.  Might even buy that a good fake and good design does help the success of the play action  pass.  That data is not out there and is much trickier to analyze.

 

What IS out there, is that play action success is completely unrelated and independent to running frequency or running success.  Within games, within seasons, across seasons, across teams, everywhere.  You don't need to be effective running the ball to run good play action.  That's the reaction I'm trying to preempt with my comment. 

 

Not with you on the "you need to run the ball to run effective play action" sentiment.  But I'm also not sure that's what you're saying.

 

If play action proves to be successful, my suggestion is run it more often.

 

Image

 

 

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2 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

I totally agree that it looks prettier.  Might even buy that a good fake and good design does help the success of the play action  pass.  That data is not out there and is much trickier to analyze.

 

What IS out there, is that play action success is completely unrelated and independent to running frequency or running success.  Within games, within seasons, across seasons, across teams, everywhere.  You don't need to be effective running the ball to run good play action.  That's the reaction I'm trying to preempt with my comment. 

 

Not with you on the "you need to run the ball to run effective play action" sentiment.  But I'm also not sure that's what you're saying.

 

If play action proves to be successful, my suggestion is run it more often.

 

Image

 

 

I don't get how teams aren't internalizing this at this point. Every team in the league is running the RPO slant route behind the linebackers who bite on the fake pretty much every time. 

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Just now, AlexGreen#20 said:

I don't get how teams aren't internalizing this at this point. Every team in the league is running the RPO slant route behind the linebackers who bite on the fake pretty much every time. 

from an offensive or defensive perspective?

It's equally dumb on both sides.  Sort of a dumb-off arms race between stubborn coaches.  Well, mcvay is ahead on this point for sure.

 

He'll run play action on 3rd and 23.  Like, hard play action.

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Just now, skibrett15 said:

from an offensive or defensive perspective?

It's equally dumb on both sides.  Sort of a dumb-off arms race between stubborn coaches.  Well, mcvay is ahead on this point for sure.

 

He'll run play action on 3rd and 23.  Like, hard play action.

Both offense and defense.

ILBs grow up as run only players because they spend their formative years in middle school and highschool with QBs who can't throw. Then they get to college and god only knows what their conference offenses are running. First day of installs and first page of playbook for everyone it's fits, fits, fits, fits, know your fits, be perfect on your fits, fill your holes aggressively, if you ever miss a fill, you're out of here. 

And smart coaches are using that to their advantage because players can't help themselves. By the time they're 24 it's a pathological need to step up and fill into the gap every time they see lateral or even non non-backwards motion. 

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2 minutes ago, Kepler said:

After two preseason games I think I've seen enough to correctly judge MLF, the players, and anything that could happen in the future with this squad.

It's all doom and gloom.

This isn't based on purely the PS, even if it is way too early to do this. I'm listening to podcasts all day, holy **** they are more depressed than I am.

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1 minute ago, Norm said:

This isn't based on purely the PS, even if it is way too early to do this. I'm listening to podcasts all day, holy **** they are more depressed than I am.

Sometimes I hope they go back to the squad of the seventies and eighties. Fan entitlement is so annoying. I remember listening to my grandmother and her friends ***** and complain about people constantly, and it's really starting to remind me of that around here. An old lady sewing circle on steroids.

But then again it can be like a bad accident I can't take my eyes off of. I wish I could look away every once in awhile lol

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9 minutes ago, Kepler said:

After two preseason games I think I've seen enough to correctly judge MLF, the players, and anything that could happen in the future with this squad.

It's all doom and gloom.

it's entirely based on what he did in Tennessee.

I haven't watched much preseason.  First half of the baltimore game and that's it

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