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You Are Wrong About Lamar Jackson - Warren Sharp


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11 hours ago, jrry32 said:

Yeah, I think you're understating Allen's mechanical deficiencies. Dude had some embarrassing misses last year due to his lower body mechanics. I'm talking about him missing badly on throws like swing passes and screens while under no duress.

Frankly, what you're describing kind of sounds like young Colin Kaepernick.

Yep. Allen was regularly missing throws to the flat in drills at the combine. Definitely a glaring weakness there that continued into the season.

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The Ravens are the easiest team to pick to regress. We've seen this with the wildcat and RG3 - it's just not sustainable.

I'll say this though - if the Ravens keep that as their offense, it's their best chance and I'll respect them - but at the same time, they will be easy to stop if he doesn't drastically improve as a passer.

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3 hours ago, FrantikRam said:

The Ravens are the easiest team to pick to regress. We've seen this with the wildcat and RG3 - it's just not sustainable.

I'll say this though - if the Ravens keep that as their offense, it's their best chance and I'll respect them - but at the same time, they will be easy to stop if he doesn't drastically improve as a passer.

1. The offense we installed in one week last year is only a glimpse of what we're going to run this year, it's much more dynamic and expanded.

2. Lamar has already shown significant signs of improvement as a passer just watching him after 2 preseason games. He's much more comfortable in the pocket going through his progressions, his mechanics and footwork are miles better, and his ball placement as a result is much more comfortable than it was last year.

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18 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

1. The offense we installed in one week last year is only a glimpse of what we're going to run this year, it's much more dynamic and expanded.

2. Lamar has already shown significant signs of improvement as a passer just watching him after 2 preseason games. He's much more comfortable in the pocket going through his progressions, his mechanics and footwork are miles better, and his ball placement as a result is much more comfortable than it was last year.

Not saying he hasn’t improved but teams run basic vanilla defense during preseason making QBs look better than what they are.

Edited by Blackstar12
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19 minutes ago, Blackstar12 said:

Not saying he hasn’t improved but teams run basic vanilla defense during preseason making QBs look better than what they are.

Which is why I'm really just paying attention to things that Lamar can control himself: footwork, mechanics, ball placement, progressions, etc.

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Flawed right from the get go. Lamar Jackson was incredibly low usage hence the random 150 pass qualifier. It's much easier to be efficient on low attempts. We are also talking about a guy playing in the easiest passing season in NFL history. He also played on a good team. I wonder why Stafford didn't produce better numbers: suiting up for a team one year removed from being 0-16, when the league average for passer rating was 10 points less, and throwing over twice as many passes in three more starts. It's not even an article worth considering. It's a total spin job.

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15 hours ago, RavensfanRD said:

Lamar Jackson said "Y'all gonna get a Superbowl outta me. Beleee dat"

So I don't care what any of these fantasy football haters gotta say. Whether he helps us by throwing 20 TDs or running for 20 TDs, long as he hoist that Lombardi, all these people can hold his pocket.

The irony of this post is that fantasy gamers like him a whole lot more than the general public does. Rushing QBs are good for fantasy :D

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19 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

1. The offense we installed in one week last year is only a glimpse of what we're going to run this year, it's much more dynamic and expanded.

2. Lamar has already shown significant signs of improvement as a passer just watching him after 2 preseason games. He's much more comfortable in the pocket going through his progressions, his mechanics and footwork are miles better, and his ball placement as a result is much more comfortable than it was last year.

 

At the end of the day, running QBs just don't last - and I really doubt he's a better passer than RG3, who took the NFL world by storm for one year.

Where the Ravens differ is that they were a (much) more talented team right out of the gate.

I suppose every fanbase has to be optimistic at this point, but the one Ravens fan I know is realistic about the situation: probably not going to last.

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On 8/20/2019 at 11:18 PM, Broncofan said:

I love Warren Sharp's metrics based analysis. HUGE fan.   A guy I enjoy reading a lot.

But, if there's a flaw, it's that he is a metrics guy and ignores context and if the "eye test" has major flags.   I absolutely think the old school guys who dismiss metrics (that's you, Dave Gettleman) are obsolete dinosaurs who are foolish to not use all the tools available for talent evaluation...but I also have a problem with metrics guys who dismiss old-school methods.  It's supposed to a blend, not one over the other.

Why do I raise this?  Well, I see 2 major flaws with Sharp's premise:

1.  Sharp uses an arbitrary age-21 cutoff for rookies.   I would point out that for QB's, a rookie being 21 or 22 or even 23 doesn't matter nearly so much.  And why does that matter?  Well, it excludes guys like Big Ben who were fantastic their rookie season.   And that brings me to my next point:

2.  The other rookie QB's Sharp references were almost all from 1.1 or top 5 pick teams - so bad teams, that were rebuilding.   Lamar joined a team with a top 3 D on DVOA, and got top 10 OL play (again by DVOA), and had been a playoff near-miss team the year before.   Just like how Big Ben joined a very good PIT team that had suffered from the Maddox/Stewart combo flaming out there.   Lamar played on a team with a great D, and a power-based read-option scheme buttressed by good OL play (that didn't yield as much fruit in Flacco's days because of the 8-man boxes they were facing not fearing Flacco at all - which they couldn't simply play with the read option power game BAL had - until LAC figured it out).  Few if any of the guys cited by Sharp as comps had the same environment that creates QB success (remember the year Andy Dalton had when he had a top 5 OL, and then when 3 starters left, was out of the top 20 next year...too many other examples to count).

Now, I'm actually a believer in Lamar's ability to improve. But to say that he was a good pure passer last season - that just doesn't pass the eye test.   He was slow in his reads, and his accuracy wasn't even close to his college days.   And his decisiveness was an issue that got exposed when they were playing from behind - they just didn't have to play many games from behind, it was the perfect setup for him.   And he still showed major issues as a passer.

Here's the thing - he really wasn't supposed to be out there last year.  He looks more decisive and quick in his reads, and his accuracy / placement looked really good.  I want to see it of course in the reg. season games, but the tools were there in college, and they're still there now.  This isn't Vince Young V2.  But on the flip side - to characterize 2018 as a great year because other 21-year old QB's didn't have as good of a YPA / QBR - it's taking team-influenced numbers and fitting them to confirm a belief IMO.   I say that as a guy who thinks L-Jax can be successful as a passer in the future - but to say he's already there from last year is a metrics bridge too far.

I both agree and disagree with you here. I agree that Lamar has room to improve and started earlier than what was best. I agree that Lamar wasn’t a “good/great” passer. I also agree that playing on a bad team can “expose” some players.

That all said, playing on a bad team also leads to more bulk stat opportunities to make one look good, just lowers your overall efficiency.

I disagree that being 21 isn’t important. Breakout year is an important prospect achievement. It is so useful because it supposes, accurately, that younger talent has a greater ability to develop and adapt than older talent. There is nothing different in this scenario. LJ8 is compared to a bunch of other 21 year olds because they’re a good baseline to see where they’ve developed to in the present and can help predict future development for other players on this list.

Agree that he shouldn’t have been out there. The idea was for him to sit for a year and develop similar to Mahomes/Rodgers. 

What people see is what people latch onto. So now the perception based off of last year is that Lamar has been figured out and will soon be out of the league be it injury or play, that narrative has to be corrected. Thus this article seems to be more about correcting the Lamar narrative and why you should rewatch him because he was a quality QB1 just off talent alone, than the argument is about how elite Jackson’s 2018 season was.

Ultimately though, I tend to agree more than I disagree.

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man, Ravens better fire DeCosta rather sooner than later.

he spend a 1st and 3rd round pick on a WR when he should know best he has a RB at QB.

 

gotta love people with educated opinions 9_9

i expect the Ravens O to surprise a LOT of people this season. not going to be world beaters but certainly they are going to be so much more than what they were in the final stretch of last season. if they can in fact field a capable offense this team is tough to beat.

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7 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

I both agree and disagree with you here. I agree that Lamar has room to improve and started earlier than what was best. I agree that Lamar wasn’t a “good/great” passer. I also agree that playing on a bad team can “expose” some players.

That all said, playing on a bad team also leads to more bulk stat opportunities to make one look good, just lowers your overall efficiency.

I disagree that being 21 isn’t important. Breakout year is an important prospect achievement. It is so useful because it supposes, accurately, that younger talent has a greater ability to develop and adapt than older talent. There is nothing different in this scenario. LJ8 is compared to a bunch of other 21 year olds because they’re a good baseline to see where they’ve developed to in the present and can help predict future development for other players on this list.

Agree that he shouldn’t have been out there. The idea was for him to sit for a year and develop similar to Mahomes/Rodgers. 

What people see is what people latch onto. So now the perception based off of last year is that Lamar has been figured out and will soon be out of the league be it injury or play, that narrative has to be corrected. Thus this article seems to be more about correcting the Lamar narrative and why you should rewatch him because he was a quality QB1 just off talent alone, than the argument is about how elite Jackson’s 2018 season was.

Ultimately though, I tend to agree more than I disagree.

Absolutely agree age matters - but my objection was that Sharp selected ONLY 21 as what mattered.  Big Ben was 22, so he was excluded.   That was a deliberate choice IMO.   Including Big Ben points out what else they shared in common - a mostly complete team around them, that actually let the rookie be part of the solution, and not the centerpiece, which is the scenario that the other 21 year olds that Sharpe use were facing.   

It's not that age doesn't matter - it's that the cutoff was very arbitrary, and it helped avoid the other case(s) that showed that team context matters a ton.   I get you agree with most of what I've said, just making it clear my problem isn't the age concept - it's how arbitrary and self-serving the cutoff chosen was for Sharp's take.  It was more a cutoff that better served Sharp's original premise than an objective one that by itself forms the basis to Sharp's conclusion.

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Just now, candyman93 said:

It’s because Ravens fans talk the most ish on here. They’re just a smaller fanbase on here so it’s harder to notice.

I noticed that about Browns fans, too. They want him to suck more than to win the Super Bowl.

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