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You Are Wrong About Lamar Jackson - Warren Sharp


Ray Reed

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I had Lamar rated as the 2nd best QB in the 2018 draft.  I thought he would be a superstar QB that would light the league on fire.  I would love to agree with this guy so that I'm proven right.  But if I'm being honest with myself, I'm having some buyers remorse about Lamar going into Year 2.

I always knew his passing would be a work in progress.  What concerns me more is the fact he doesn't look as athletic and explosive as he did in college.   He ran a lot last year but he didn't have the jaw dropping burst he showed in college.  Josh Allen was actually the guy who looked like the most athletic running QB from the 2018 draft.

I compared Lamar to Michael Vick coming out of college.  Right now he looks more like the next Kordell Stewart.  The freakish athleticism he showed at Louisville has simply not translated to the NFL.

Edited by VanS
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5 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

Did you guys see the first 3 quarters against the Chargers though? He's been figured out.

I think you are a Ravens fan, so I think this was a joke. So I won't respond unless you are being serious. 

I'm in on LJ. I wanted the Cardinals to draft him last year. 

Edited by 11sanchez11
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I’m a believer in Jackson. I think if all goes perfectly, he can be a Stafford type QB, with athleticism. I think his more realistic outlook is a smaller, faster Cam Newton. 

But trying to paint his rookie season as a success from a passing perspective is a major stretch.

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4 hours ago, SwoleXmad said:

Jackson is more Russel Wilson than Michael Vick, he's not instantly going to be an elite pocket passer but I think he can make the transition like Wilson did. 

 

3 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

You are so backwards. Wilson was always a pocket passer who could run, Vick was a runner who had a monster arm. Jackson is a runner trying to get more consistent throwing. 80% of his passes are good. You have to be closer to 95% in this league.

 

3 hours ago, SwoleXmad said:

That's a broad generalization not a 1for1 comparison mate. 

Also Wilson still rarely threw in his early years (not hitting close 500+ attempts until his breakout year as a passer) 

To be fair, though, Wilson came from pro-style, pocket passer O's in NC State & Wisconsin.    He only ran for 400+ yards once in his 4 years in college, and the other 3 years, it was 260-340 yards.  So to characterize him as a QB who had to learn to pass is grossly inaccurate.   It's fair to say SEA was a run-first team that rode Beast Mode and that legendary D.   That's fair.  But it wasn't because Wilson wasn't a good passer.  He was a short QB, who CW felt couldn't succeed in the NFL.  We now know that isn't the case (esp with his pocket awareness, cannon arm, and those 10'+ mitts).  But he wasn't a runner-first QB, but a pass-first QB who just happened to be an excellent runner.

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The same people who want to write Lamar off after one poor playoff showing argue that Josh Allen needs time to develop with the Bills. Both things can be true. We don't know anything about how these guys will turn out yet, but both teams are doing what they can to give them what they need to succeed and that wasn't the case when they were thrust into action last year. 

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Kinda the epitome of the "analytics guy" missing the forest for the trees really.  Setting some arbitrary thresholds like age and passer rating, while seemingly ignoring context to the numbers.  Then tossing on a garnish of some inflammatory clickbaity title like, "You are Wrong about this because i did the Math".

Absolutely, you simplify the game and give a guy easier throws by using his athletic gifts as a runner, he's going to grade out better analytically when he does throw.  I don't think anybody has ever denied that QBs who come out as major running threats can be very successful in the NFL initially.  Same way a decent game manager can grade out pretty solidly when surrounded by a good roster and smart gameplan.  The question is always going to be...how sustainable is that running aspect as a means of simplifying the game?  For the same reason RBs tend to have very short careers.

Lamar Jackson may eventually develop the ability as a passer to offset his inevitably declining athleticism, who knows.  I'm a bit more skeptical it'll keep pace.  I think there'll be a point at which athletic decline overwhelms improvement as a passer.

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3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

 

To be fair, though, Wilson came from pro-style, pocket passer O's in NC State & Wisconsin.    He only ran for 400+ yards once in his 4 years in college, and the other 3 years, it was 260-340 yards.  So to characterize him as a QB who had to learn to pass is grossly inaccurate.   It's fair to say SEA was a run-first team that rode Beast Mode and that legendary D.   That's fair.  But it wasn't because Wilson wasn't a good passer.  He was a short QB, who CW felt couldn't succeed in the NFL.  We now know that isn't the case (esp with his pocket awareness, cannon arm, and those 10'+ mitts).  But he wasn't a runner-first QB, but a pass-first QB who just happened to be an excellent runner.

This is the weird thing about Russell Wilson always being tossed in as an example of a "running QB" who became successful.  Sure, he seems to accrue a lot of yardage on the ground in the NFL...but that's really never been the core of his game.

I think it kinda stems from the way he and Kaepernick broke in at roughly the same time, in that whole "read option is taking over the NFL!!!" wave of hype.  Both were certainly doing it, and part of the whole movement toward that.  The difference has always been there though, and borne out over the long-haul as well.  Wilson's early years were much more like a "game manager who scrambles"...while Kaep was much more of that prototypical "running QB".  Just very different styles of quarterback in the end.

When you look at what Lamar has done through his college career and thus far into the NFL...it certainly resembles the shock and awe value Kaepernick initially had stepping in for Smith to me.  More so than the criticisms that dogged Wilson through his early career, "he's just being carried by an elite team, nothing more than a game manager"...which frankly, still sounds a lot more like a description of Alex Smith.

 

Fundamentally to me, it's the difference between a "Running QB" and a "Scrambling QB".  Lamar to me, still looks far more like the former...rather than the latter.

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IMO, Lamar did well in the system he was in last year and put in a very good position to have some success as a rookie QB. He had a great defense with a very limited/college friendly transition into the NFL offense, a lot of double TE sets, causing personnel match-up issues in the running game as well as play-action passing game. That said, I don't care WHO the QB is, running the ball as much as he did last year is COMPLETELY UNSUSTAINABLE in the NFL.

Put me squarely in the "he's not a franchise QB until he proves me differently throwing the ball" category. Vegas set the over/under for TD passes for him at 15 and 1/2. If he makes strides this year as a passer, shows consistent accuracy on short/intermediate routes, and runs the ball 5 times or less per game as a designed runner, then maybe I'll change my tune.

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