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carrolljcmc

Drew Lock = Jimmy Clausen?

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If things go that bad for us this year, does anyone else foresee us doing what the Panthers did, and take a QB #1 overall next year after drafting a QB in round 2 this year? I didn't want us to draft Lock this year, so there's probably a slight bias, but I don't see him being our QB of the future.

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, carrolljcmc said:

If things go that bad for us this year, does anyone else foresee us doing what the Panthers did, and take a QB #1 overall next year after drafting a QB in round 2 this year? I didn't want us to draft Lock this year, so there's probably a slight bias, but I don't see him being our QB of the future.

I don't think Elway is going to ever cut bait on Lock for 2020 now that he's likely able to use injury as a reason should Lock fail to show significant lack of improvement this year - missing those last 2 PS games and now possibly the first 8 weeks of practice with IR-return, it's a valid reason for patience TBH, even if the bust potential still exists.   Lock may or may not succeed, but if you take him in the 2nd, you give him at least until next season to see if he's the guy.   Now, if we land so far down the standings we get an elite QB available that we don't have to move up for....well, yeah, that's an interesting convo.  But that's not worth worrying about too much, now.

I say the above being very much on the record as to my misgivings about Lock's chances for success - I'm glad it was a mid-2nd round price instead of 1.10 or even 1.20, but that uncertainty still exists.  Having said that, you invest in him, barring an opportunity you just can't pass up, 2020 is likely when the scrutiny really begins on Lock's development, if he's not showing the progress that's expected.  If things go bad for us this year, the one blessing is that Flacco's contract has zero dead money.    So your Q becomes a very fair one, but it's too early to write Lock off.  This time next year, the convo gets really interesting if the development isn't there.  Hopefully that's not a convo we are all having lol.

Edited by Broncofan

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If the Clemson kid comes out next season and the Broncos can get him, I don't see how you don't nab him regardless of Lock. Crazier things have happened.

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33 minutes ago, jsthomp2007 said:

If the Clemson kid comes out next season and the Broncos can get him, I don't see how you don't nab him regardless of Lock. Crazier things have happened.

He's only a true sophomore, can't come out until 2021 draft.

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Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, carrolljcmc said:

He's only a true sophomore, can't come out until 2021 draft.

If ppl thought Suck For Luck was crazy hype-wise, wait for the Lawrence (Tank for Trevor?) hype train.

Edited by Broncofan

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It's too early too tell that's why in my opinion Lock shouldn't be IR'd. You only activate 46 on game day. He needs the practice reps as soon as he can get them. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

It's too early too tell that's why in my opinion Lock shouldn't be IR'd. You only activate 46 on game day. He needs the practice reps as soon as he can get them. 

Sure but if it’s a bad injury he’s out 6-8 weeks, or longer.  It’s not like they don’t realize they can IR-return 2 other guys.  Right now they have 4 potential candidates.   If they are thinking IR-return for Lock  it’s not simply for roster management manipulation. 

Edited by Broncofan

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Posted (edited)

I know it's only preseason.. But that gap between Lock and Daniel Jones tho 😳. Good lord, how did everyone miss that? NY was the only team who had him rated even close to that high

Edited by 1234567

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Posted (edited)
On 8/25/2019 at 2:20 AM, 1234567 said:

I know it's only preseason.. But that gap between Lock and Daniel Jones tho 😳. Good lord, how did everyone miss that? NY was the only team who had him rated even close to that high

Jones’ readiness to start and being pro ready are 2 of his biggest strengths (that and ball placement / anticipation and his toughness).  The biggest Q’s are whether his arm strength and average tools are enough to be more than a league average / backup QB.   The thing is that facing 2nd / 3rd string D doesn’t test those Q’s.  The windows are so much bigger and the closing speed that much slower.   

We see this time and again in the preseason - Brett Hundley with GB (2 straight preseasons).   Kyle Sloter with us.   A guy lights up preseasons facing vanilla D schemes and now purely 2nd-3rd stringers and we project their reg season success.   And time and again we find it has little to no correlation.  Struggles in preseason tell us with a strong level of accuracy that a guy isn’t ready.   Because facing subs / simple schemes if you struggle consistently you aren’t going to adapt to the complexity & increases speed of regular season.   But the opposite if you do well doesn’t apply.   It gives optimism and hope but anything more is a mirage.   Jones' could very well be good enough in the other intangible skills that his average arm strength plays up.  But you can't tell that from the preseason.  That applies even more to a skill type where polish isn’t in question.  

I’m already on record that I have serious concerns on Lock going in (but I can’t argue the difference in price paid from 1.10 or 1.20).  But his reasons why he’ll fail are different than Jones.   Much like Haskins.  They both need time to develop their read progression skills (both), footwork vs. pressure (Lock), and get reps vs. teams that are simply better than their OL (Haskins).    Struggles in the preseason were the most likely outcome.  What you hope to see is a jump either late in-season or next year (like Kurt Benkert showed in the HoF game this year, as an example - which doesn't predict success in reg. season, but given his weaknesses, going from struggling badly last PS to his performance pre-injury was a sign of major progress).   For a guy like Jones, being pro-ready wasn't nearly of an issue, it's whether his skills profile maxes him out vs. pro-level reg. season & playoff competition.

Both Lock & Haskins we’re drafted with the understanding they needed time in development (Haskins with only 1 full year as a starter).   Jones has always been the most pro ready.   The preseason results for all 3 aren’t at all surprising given this context.   As much as I still have my concerns with Lock nothing that’s happened in PS changes my recognition of his potential success - the tools are there to succeed.   The reasons why he’ll fail are plain to see because of the flaws he has.   Jones’ flaws aren’t exposed by preseason game speed and complexity.  It’s why he profiled as a safer choice - 10-year vet, backup to below league average starter floor outcome.   Just a Q of whether he can be a true franchise QB with the physical limitations.  The length of time before he encountered success in college raises this Q as well, since it suggests he took a while to adjust to the jump in game speed in college.  Preseason doesn’t provide the same big jump - but it’s coming soon.   How he adjusts then will say a lot more on his big Q’s.   

The thing is that preseason is even more of a joke talent-wise now.   Teams are only playing 2nd-3rd string D’s.   Few are even doing the 3rd game-as-dress-rehearsal anymore.  Which makes using PS to evaluate immediate success for QB’s even iffier.  If you struggle like Haskins or Lock has, it means you aren’t ready to start  week 1.   But if you succeed like Jones (or as Josh Rosen has in MIA with only 2 months on the team), it’s encouraging - but has little correlation to reg season success.  It means they aren’t going to be Paxton Lynch, though.  Given the profiles of each of the 3 rookies, though, it fits with their development.  

Edited by Broncofan

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19 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Jones’ readiness to start and being pro ready are 2 of his biggest strengths (that and ball placement / anticipation and his toughness).  The biggest Q’s are whether his arm strength and average tools are enough to be more than a league average / backup QB.   The thing is that facing 2nd / 3rd string D doesn’t test those Q’s.  The windows are so much bigger and the closing speed that much slower.   

We see this time and again in the preseason - Brett Hundley with GB (2 straight preseasons).   Kyle Sloter with us.   A guy lights up preseasons facing vanilla D schemes and now purely 2nd-3rd stringers and we project their reg season success.   And time and again we find it has little to no correlation.  Struggles in preseason tell us with a strong level of accuracy that a guy isn’t ready.   Because facing subs / simple schemes if you struggle consistently you aren’t going to adapt to the complexity & increases speed of regular season.   But the opposite if you do well doesn’t apply.   It gives optimism and hope but anything more is a mirage.   Jones' could very well be good enough in the other intangible skills that his average arm strength plays up.  But you can't tell that from the preseason.  That applies even more to a skill type where polish isn’t in question.  

I’m already on record that I have serious concerns on Lock going in (but I can’t argue the difference in price paid from 1.10 or 1.20).  But his reasons why he’ll fail are different than Jones.   Much like Haskins.  They both need time to develop their read progression skills (both), footwork vs. pressure (Lock), and get reps vs. teams that are simply better than their OL (Haskins).    Struggles in the preseason were the most likely outcome.  What you hope to see is a jump either late in-season or next year (like Kurt Benkert showed in the HoF game this year, as an example - which doesn't predict success in reg. season, but given his weaknesses, going from struggling badly last PS to his performance pre-injury was a sign of major progress).   For a guy like Jones, being pro-ready wasn't nearly of an issue, it's whether his skills profile maxes him out vs. pro-level reg. season & playoff competition.

Both Lock & Haskins we’re drafted with the understanding they needed time in development (Haskins with only 1 full year as a starter).   Jones has always been the most pro ready.   The preseason results for all 3 aren’t at all surprising given this context.   As much as I still have my concerns with Lock nothing that’s happened in PS changes my recognition of his potential success - the tools are there to succeed.   The reasons why he’ll fail are plain to see because of the flaws he has.   Jones’ flaws aren’t exposed by preseason game speed and complexity.  It’s why he profiled as a safer choice - 10-year bet, backup to below league average starter floor outcome.   Just a Q of whether he can be a true franchise QB with the physical limitations.  The length of time before he encountered success in college raises this Q as well, since it suggests he took a while to adjust to the jump in game speed in college.  Preseason doesn’t provide the same big jump - but it’s coming soon.   How he adjusts then will say a lot more on his big Q’s.   

The thing is that preseason is even more of a joke talent-wise now.   Teams are only playing 2nd-3rd string D’s.   Few are even doing the 3rd game-as-dress-rehearsal anymore.  Which makes using PS to evaluate immediate success for QB’s even iffier.  If you struggle like Haskins or Lock has, it means you aren’t ready to start  week 1.   But if you succeed like Jones (or as Josh Rosen has in MIA with only 2 months on the team), it’s encouraging - but has little correlation to reg season success.  It means they aren’t going to be Paxton Lynch, though.  Given the profiles of each of the 3 rookies, though, it fits with their development.  

Truth. And I do believe that Lock has a much higher level of physical talent. It's definitely striking though to see one rookie look like a fish out of water while another looks like a 4 year veteran lol. Even if it is just preseason. You can definitely tell Jones came from a more pro style system. At least against vanilla, preseason NFL defenses, he looks as comfortable as a pig in the mud 😆

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