Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
soulman

We Really Need To Pin This One 'Til January

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

3rd, 67, 111 and a 3rd (70) the following year are not "some mid round picks". That's nearly 4 top 100 picks. And who the 9ers drafted doesn't change who they could have drafted in that spot. 

And again, they overpaid by the same value of a late 3rd round pick. Look. It's really easy to find that. It's a fact. 

Bears get 2600

Bears give 2200, 255, 240 and 72

(just realized I said 5th round pick earlier, my bad, typo)

I mean, WOW, what an overpay. Can you imagine missing out on a 3rd round pick and their 12% success rate?! All for the chance at a franchise QB?!

Edited by beardown3231

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

And again, they overpaid by the same value of a late 3rd round pick. Look. It's really easy to find that. It's a fact. 

Bears get 2600

Bears give 2200, 255, 240 and 72

(just realized I said 5th round pick earlier, my bad, typo)

I mean, WOW, what an overpay. Can you imagine missing out on a 3rd round pick and their 12% success rate?! All for the chance at a franchise QB?!

I don't conform to the outdated trade value chart. Personally, I didn't rate him as highly as the other QBs (proving right) and they could have taken a franchise QB at 3 and still retained all that value. But I get it if he was the guy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

I don't conform to the outdated trade value chart. Personally, I didn't rate him as highly as the other QBs (proving right) and they could have taken a franchise QB at 3 and still retained all that value. But I get it if he was the guy

In hindsight we're all experts

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This whole article must be click-bait.  I'm so jealous that you have this guy as a fan of your team. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Uncle Buck said:

This whole article must be click-bait.  I'm so jealous that you have this guy as a fan of your team. 

 

He's a dbag

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, big_palooka said:

3rd, 67, 111 and a 3rd (70) the following year are not "some mid round picks". 

They quite literally are some mid round picks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, big_palooka said:

3rd, 67, 111 and a 3rd (70) the following year are not "some mid round picks". That's nearly 4 top 100 picks. And who the 9ers drafted doesn't change who they could have drafted in that spot. 

Remember, one of the 3rds was a future pick so you subtract one round value for that.  Pace did recover at least one of those picks but I'd have to backtrack to be accurate about that.  You can't count the #3 overall pick because the #2 overall was received in exchange.

In effect Pace insured his pick and his ability to draft his guy with that pick.  To get insurance you pay a premium and you pay if for cars, homes, injuries, your life, and an NFL Draft Pick.  So what Pace did wasn't odd at all.  He received value for what he paid.

The cost of jumping from the #3 overall to the #2 overall is 400 points.  The current #67 and #111 were worth 327 points.  The future #70 was only worth the same as a current #108 (4th rd.) so 78 points.  That's 405 points brother. Can't get much closer than that.

Based on the commonly accepted Draft Value Charts Pace paid market value for the swap with SF and got the QB he wanted.

I won't bother to get into any Trubisky vs Mahomes or Watson debate other than to say Mitch was the right guy for the Bears.  He was the only QB I was interested in us drafting as well.  Watson was not a fit for a number of reasons and whose to say that Mitch won't be as good or eventually pass Mahomes who may simply have peaked faster?  None of them have won a SB yet.

We can't predict the future but we can and should put to rest any notion that Pace woefully overpaid for Mitch.  The numbers don't lie.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

And again, they overpaid by the same value of a late 3rd round pick. Look. It's really easy to find that. It's a fact. 

Bears get 2600

Bears give 2200, 255, 240 and 72

(just realized I said 5th round pick earlier, my bad, typo)

I mean, WOW, what an overpay. Can you imagine missing out on a 3rd round pick and their 12% success rate?! All for the chance at a franchise QB?!

And that second 3rd round pick was actually a future pick which means it's only worth a current 4th whose value was just 78 points.

In summary the Bears gave up 405 points vs the cost of a 400 point swap.  Market value.....end of story.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, big_palooka said:

I don't conform to the outdated trade value chart. Personally, I didn't rate him as highly as the other QBs (proving right) and they could have taken a franchise QB at 3 and still retained all that value. But I get it if he was the guy

OK, now you're getting a little arrogant.  How YOU rate Mitch has zero to do with how Pace rated him and nothing has been proven yet other than possibly Mahomes reaching his peak faster. Mitch was right for Chicago and his plan.

The DraftTek chart is updated each and every year so it's never outdated.  It's also the one I went by to evaluate the trade.  YOU may not conform to it in your own mind but that mean nothing if 32 NFL GMs do.  At the very least it's a guideline.

So to re-emphasize Pace paid 405 points in draft value for a 400 point swap of picks.  It really is just that simple.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, soulman said:

OK, now you're getting a little arrogant.  How YOU rate Mitch has zero to do with how Pace rated him and nothing has been proven yet other than possibly Mahomes reaching his peak faster. Mitch was right for Chicago and his plan.

The DraftTek chart is updated each and every year so it's never outdated.  It's also the one I went by to evaluate the trade.  YOU may not conform to it in your own mind but that mean nothing if 32 NFL GMs do.  At the very least it's a guideline.

So to re-emphasize Pace paid 405 points in draft value for a 400 point swap of picks.  It really is just that simple.

Not meaning to come off as arrogant. I just find the draft value charts to be subjective. And I personally have no problem ever, mortgaging anything for a shot at a franchise QB. It's the most important position on the field and you either have one or you don't.

Just curious, what was Chicago's plan when they drafted him? Because it changed completely the following year when they fired Fox and picked a coach who could work with him. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, big_palooka said:

Not meaning to come off as arrogant. I just find the draft value charts to be subjective. And I personally have no problem ever, mortgaging anything for a shot at a franchise QB. It's the most important position on the field and you either have one or you don't.

Just curious, what was Chicago's plan when they drafted him? Because it changed completely the following year when they fired Fox and picked a coach who could work with him. 

 

I really just meant the post itself not you.  You've been one of the best and most interesting opponent fans we've had come over. happy0144.gif

The Draft Value Chart may be somewhat subjective and to be honest in some cases GMs may ignore it altogether but on the whole it's an objective way for teams to at least have an initial starting point for a trade. If two or more teams are vying for the same pick or player it's also a way to compare the value of each offer. I'm sure Oakland did this during the Mack trade. Without it I believe there would be even fewer trades because one team would ask for far more than another team believed a pick or player was worth or another might offer far less.

Kinda like what happens when we all horse trade and haggle over something like used cars. ;)

I've also been a semi-pro musician most of my life and over the years I've bought and sold many pieces of gear and still do.  Until online marketplaces like Ebay, Kiji, and Reverb came along and through previous sales helped to establish an accurate range of market value for specific pieces of gear it was also like a used car deal.  Ask for 50% more than an item is worth, offer 50% less then haggle 'til you meet in the middle somewhere.  Online marketplaces pretty much eliminated that and transactions are more efficient for everyone now.

It's become more like the real estate market which is pretty much governed by comp sales in the same neighborhood and I believe the NFL can use it in much the same way.  What the Bears paid in picks for that swap with SF becomes a basis for a similar trade somewhere down the line.  It's a starting point for negotiations just as it would be for the sale of a home.  Unless you live in Denver right now where you may as well add at least 10% to the listed price or not bother offering at all because sure as hell everyone else will.

What was the plan?

The first element was always gonna be firing Fox after that season.  IMHO Pace would have liked to have done it after season two. George McCaskey persuaded him to hold on for another year but also allowed Pace to uncouple from Fox as his supposed "mentor" and build a winner his own way ignoring what John Fox might have preferred.  As a defensive minded HC IMHO Fox would have certainly been enticed by Solomon Thomas more than Trubisky but Cutler had to go because Fox had screwed everything up with him already.

Cutler was never as bad as some of the media portrayed him to be but things weren't gonna get any better soon especially with Fox being kept on for another year so it was time to move on.  Trubisky was 100% a Ryan Pace decision.  Fox was not even told of his plan to draft him until they were in the draft room a few hours before the draft started fearing the Fox would blow it by disclosing Pace's plan being unhappy for having been left out of the decision process.  That was John Fox's "handwriting on the wall" that he would soon be gone.

The plan was to never play Mitch as a rookie.  Pace had signed Glennon to fill the starting role and also to disguise his intent to draft Mitch.  The feint worked on draft day but not the rest of the plan.  Glennon was God awful so by game five Mitch is starting but with an offense that would have sucked even in preseason.  Fox never had a rookie QB he wanted to play but once forced to he kept Mitch so reined in Nagy had to encourage him to take more risk once he arrived.  He had to literally beat the John Fox out of him.

So.....this is one reason many of us discard Mitch's rookie year as being  basically useless in his development and look at 2018 more as if it was his rookie year.

After drafting Mitch the rest of the story is basically Pace finding the right HC to develop him into a franchise QB and lead the team.  That was Nagy and it was a great choice.  Then it was acquiring and drafting the right players for the offense to support Mitch and fit his skill set into Nagy's schemes something that was never done when Cutler was here.  First it was rebuilding the receiver core in 2018 both in FA and the draft and this past offseason it was doing the same at RB and also solidifying the OL through contract extensions for all.

But we both know the biggest move was trading for Mack and showing an immediate willingness to make him the highest paid OLB in the NFL.  That was the whip cream and cherry on top of the sundae Pace was building.  That was a move to get his team another Brian Urlacher type presence and leader for the defense.  That one guy who could help to make everyone else around him even better and it worked.  Without Mack we're still a good team but with him were a great team who could become a dominant team for quite awhile.

So this combination of things were all part of Paces plan but when I woke up that day and read we got Mack that's when I knew, and others, that the Bears had turned a corner and were finally gonna become a 21st century organization focused on winning big again.  I know Mitch is a big part of that plan and that he does have to continue to progress in order for it all to happen but all signs point to him having an ability to do that.  He really doesn't have to be a Mahomes.  He just needs to be the best Mitch can be and it will work out.

That's my take on it.  Others may see it in still other ways or have more to add and they should if they have additions or correction to my story to make.  But for now I hope this answers the question of what the plan was when Mitch was drafted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, soulman said:

He really doesn't have to be a Mahomes.  He just needs to be the best Mitch can be and it will work out.

This is the most important thing. Mahomes isn’t a Bear. Watson isn’t a Bear either. All the shoulda woulda coulda in the world isn’t changing that, and even if it plays out that they are better players individually in the long run I couldn’t care less so long as Mitch is himself a good player who leads us to a Super Bowl. He can be the third best player of the trio and be the right guy for us at the same time - they aren’t mutually exclusive. Who’s career would you want for our QB - Marino or Montana? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, big_palooka said:

I am Raider fan, but I actually like the Bears and have rooted for them over the years. Yes, it would be nice to have a higher draft pick, but I'm trying to take that out of the argument here and look more at the correlation of teams like the 2016 Raiders who replaced their OC, upgraded talent and fell completely flat the following year. 7th in scoring to 23rd.

You have to look at reasons.  Every team is different.  Yeah you brought back a lot of same players, but it wasn't the same.  

Raiders changed OCs in 2017.  I posit that changing OCs is way, way, way different than changing DCs as there is a bigger learning curve.  

Cover 1, 2, 3, quarters, robber is pretty much same coach to coach.  For linemen its simply knowing what gap to cover.  Relatively simple to learn a defensive scheme.  It's game planning, coaching, terminology and philosophy that changes.  

Carr broke his leg in late 2016 that probably carried over in 2017 performance. Then he fractured his back in 4th game of 2017.   You think that mattered?  If MT fractures his back in 4th game I agree that his 2019 and that of 2019 Bears offense will probably be pretty ****ty.

You had height of political controversies dividing the locker room with kneeling and President Trump/anti-President Trump crowd sharing space.    

Cooper and Crabtree are head cases and their production went way, way, way down for reasons other than just Carr.  Cooper is talented, but he is an up and down player for whatever reason.

You brought in Marshawn Lynch to be your lead back who is a head case and way past his prime.   I don't think he was an upgrade.  

Chuck's brother John turned that defense around late in that season when DC was fired, but offense was dead at that point and team had quit.   

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, big_palooka said:

Not meaning to come off as arrogant. I just find the draft value charts to be subjective. And I personally have no problem ever, mortgaging anything for a shot at a franchise QB. It's the most important position on the field and you either have one or you don't.

Just curious, what was Chicago's plan when they drafted him? Because it changed completely the following year when they fired Fox and picked a coach who could work with him. 

 

That was the plan. Let Fox see a young team and instill discipline in them (HA!) and then bring in an offensive minded HC while keeping Fangio.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, big_palooka said:

Not meaning to come off as arrogant. I just find the draft value charts to be subjective. And I personally have no problem ever, mortgaging anything for a shot at a franchise QB. It's the most important position on the field and you either have one or you don't.

Just curious, what was Chicago's plan when they drafted him? Because it changed completely the following year when they fired Fox and picked a coach who could work with him. 

 

Pace didn't pick Fox.  They were hired together as part of a search committee led by Ernie Accorsi.  

Pace had no choice but to work with Fox through most of his contract and I suspect had to give in on a few draft picks and free agents to keep the peace especially early.   Fox didn't know Pace was taking MT, but that selection was writing on the wall and everyone knew it.  Fox was on hot seat and they drafted a rookie QB at number 2 overall.  

That year was a total waste for QB development as a result.  It was like a Redshirt year under a different coach.  They gave MT near zero reps in off season and camp and until he got starting gig.   Then they severely limited him.   

Last year was MT's real rookie year and Pace finally being able to pick his people all himself.  MT was unfairly judged by it and still did a decent to good job.

Now Pace and Nagy are completely on same page and work together great.  

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  



×