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AZBearsFan

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Lets do over/unders again.

These are official Vegas odds from some Vegas website(s) for over/under:

Win total = 9

Passing yards for MT = 3800.5

Passing TD for MT = 26.5

Receiving yards for ARob = 900.5

Receiving TDs for Arob = 5.5

over/unders set by me:

Offense:

Rushing yards for Montgomery = 900

Rushing yards for Cohen = 400

Rushing yards for Davis = 250

Rushing yards for Patterson = 80

Receiving yards for Montgomery = 300

Receiving yards for Cohen = 650

Receiving yards for Davis = 100

Receiving yards for Patterson = 350

Receiving yards for Gabriel = 600

Receiving yards for Miller = 500

Receiving yards for Burton = 500

Receiving yards for Shaheen = 200

Defense:

Tackles by R. Smith = 130

Tackles by D. Trevathan = 100

Sacks by K. Mack = 15

Sacks by A. Hicks = 8

Sacks by R. Smith = 9

Sacks by Floyd = 9

Sacks by Nichols = 5

Sacks by Goldman = 3

Ints by Fuller = 6

Ints by Prince = 5.5

Ints by Jackson = 7

Ints by Skrine = 2.5

Ints by HHCD = 5.5

 

 

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14 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Lets do over/unders again.

These are official Vegas odds from some Vegas website(s) for over/under:

Win total = 9 PUSH

Passing yards for MT = 3800.5 OVER

Passing TD for MT = 26.5 OVER

Receiving yards for ARob = 900.5 OVER

Receiving TDs for Arob = 5.5 UNDER

over/unders set by me:

Offense:

Rushing yards for Montgomery = 900 UNDER

Rushing yards for Cohen = 400 UNDER

Rushing yards for Davis = 250 OVER

Rushing yards for Patterson = 80 OVER

Receiving yards for Montgomery = 300 OVER

Receiving yards for Cohen = 650 UNDER

Receiving yards for Davis = 100 UNDER

Receiving yards for Patterson = 350 UNDER

Receiving yards for Gabriel = 600 UNDER

Receiving yards for Miller = 500 OVER

Receiving yards for Burton = 500 UNDER

Receiving yards for Shaheen = 200 UNDER

Defense:

Tackles by R. Smith = 130 OVER

Tackles by D. Trevathan = 100 UNDER

Sacks by K. Mack = 15 OVER

Sacks by A. Hicks = 8 UNDER

Sacks by R. Smith = 9 OVER

Sacks by Floyd = 9 UNDER

Sacks by Nichols = 5 UNDER

Sacks by Goldman = 3 OVER

Ints by Fuller = 6 OVER

Ints by Prince = 5.5 UNDER

Ints by Jackson = 7 OVER

Ints by Skrine = 2.5 OVER

Ints by HHCD = 5.5 UNDER

 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Lets do over/unders again.

These are official Vegas odds from some Vegas website(s) for over/under:

Win total = 9   OVER

Passing yards for MT = 3800.5 OVER

Passing TD for MT = 26.5  OVER

Receiving yards for ARob = 900.5  OVER

Receiving TDs for Arob = 5.5  OVER

over/unders set by me:

Offense:

Rushing yards for Montgomery = 900  UNDER

Rushing yards for Cohen = 400   OVER

Rushing yards for Davis = 250   OVER

Rushing yards for Patterson = 80   OVER

Receiving yards for Montgomery = 300 OVER

Receiving yards for Cohen = 650   OVER

Receiving yards for Davis = 100  OVER

Receiving yards for Patterson = 350 UNDER

Receiving yards for Gabriel = 600  UNDER

Receiving yards for Miller = 500 OVER

Receiving yards for Burton = 500 OVER

Receiving yards for Shaheen = 200  UNDER

Defense:

Tackles by R. Smith = 130 UNDER

Tackles by D. Trevathan = 100  OVER

Sacks by K. Mack = 15  UNDER

Sacks by A. Hicks = 8 OVER

Sacks by R. Smith = 9 UNDER

Sacks by Floyd = 9  UNDER

Sacks by Nichols = 5 OVER

Sacks by Goldman = 3 OVER

Ints by Fuller = 6 UNDER

Ints by Prince = 5.5 UNDER

Ints by Jackson = 7   UNDER

Ints by Skrine = 2.5  UNDER

Ints by HHCD = 5.5 UNDER

I see a lot of unders with what I posted but I think the INTs will be spread out, and will be close to those numbers listed (except Prince, I think he is a 2 INT guy). Smith gets 2-3, Floyd and DT combine for 3, a few by reserves like Bush and Co., etc.

Mack is going to get the same attention with double and triple teams, but the stunts and blitzes will give other DL more single blocks to fight.

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35 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

That was before the amazing Sports Illustrated insights were bestowed. LMAO

I have a good buddy who bets the college games so he's always knowledgeable about betting lines even for the NFL.

I'll have to ask him if he has a line on how the odds on the Bears have changed since camp opened.

He usually asks me about the Bears and of course I missed it by a bit last year predicting for him 8 wins would be a safe bet on the over when I believe they were at 7.5.  If they're truly at 9 I'd suggest he bet the over again.  They should win no less than 10 even with a few injuries.

This is a strong team with a very good coaching staff.

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2 hours ago, soulman said:

Only 9 wins on the Vegas line?  It was 10.5 earlier wasn't it?

It's from a betting website.  Probably some at 10.5 as well. Bets are often adjusted at each book individually based on money they have on one side or another.

So lines can swing from book to book.

Edited by dll2000
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7 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

It's from a betting website.  Probably some at 10.5 as well. Bets are often adjusted at each book individually based on money they have on one side or another.

So lines can swing from book to book.

Sure but that is a big spread.  Bigger than you'd typically see.

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These are official Vegas odds from some Vegas website(s) for over/under:

Win total = 9 OVER

Passing yards for MT = 3800.5 OVER

Passing TD for MT = 26.5 OVER

Receiving yards for ARob = 900.5 OVER 

Receiving TDs for Arob = 5.5 OVER

over/unders set by me:

Offense:

Rushing yards for Montgomery = 900 OVER

Rushing yards for Cohen = 400 UNDER

Rushing yards for Davis = 250 OVER

Rushing yards for Patterson = 80 OVER

Receiving yards for Montgomery = 300

Receiving yards for Cohen = 650 OVER

Receiving yards for Davis = 100 OVER

Receiving yards for Patterson = 350 UNDER

Receiving yards for Gabriel = 600 UNDER

Receiving yards for Miller = 500 OVER

Receiving yards for Burton = 500 OVER

Receiving yards for Shaheen = 200 OVER 👀

Defense:

Tackles by R. Smith = 130 OVER

Tackles by D. Trevathan = 100 OVER

Sacks by K. Mack = 15 UNDER

Sacks by A. Hicks = 8 UNDER

Sacks by R. Smith = 9 UNDER

Sacks by Floyd = 9 OVER

Sacks by Nichols = 5 OVER

Sacks by Goldman = 3 OVER

Ints by Fuller = 6 UNDER

Ints by Prince = 5.5 UNDER

Ints by Jackson = 7 UNDER

Ints by Skrine = 2.5 OVER

Ints by HHCD = 5.5 UNDER

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14 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Lets do over/unders again.

These are official Vegas odds from some Vegas website(s) for over/under:

Win total = 9 OVER

Passing yards for MT = 3800.5 OVER

Passing TD for MT = 26.5 OVER

Receiving yards for ARob = 900.5 OVER

Receiving TDs for Arob = 5.5 OVER

over/unders set by me:

Offense:

Rushing yards for Montgomery = 900 UNDER

Rushing yards for Cohen = 400 UNDER

Rushing yards for Davis = 250 OVER

Rushing yards for Patterson = 80 OVER

Receiving yards for Montgomery = 300 OVER

Receiving yards for Cohen = 650 UNDER

Receiving yards for Davis = 100 OVER

Receiving yards for Patterson = 350 OVER

Receiving yards for Gabriel = 600 OVER

Receiving yards for Miller = 500 OVER

Receiving yards for Burton = 500 OVER

Receiving yards for Shaheen = 200 OVER

Defense:

Tackles by R. Smith = 130 OVER

Tackles by D. Trevathan = 100 UNDER

Sacks by K. Mack = 15 UNDER

Sacks by A. Hicks = 8 UNDER

Sacks by R. Smith = 9 UNDER

Sacks by Floyd = 9 UNDER

Sacks by Nichols = 5 UNDER

Sacks by Goldman = 3 OVER

Ints by Fuller = 6 UNDER

Ints by Prince = 5.5 UNDER

Ints by Jackson = 7 UNDER

Ints by Skrine = 2.5 UNDER

Ints by HHCD = 5.5 UNDER

 

 

 

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What I think/expect

Mitch: 4000 yards, 32 TDs, 14 INTs [3 TDS rushing]

Robinson: 1100 yards, 10 TDs

Montgomery: 1000 rushing, 8 TDs, 250 receiving 2 TDs

 

Mack: 18 sacks [DPOY]

Floyd: 8 sacks

Hicks: 8 sacks

Roquan: 140 tackles, 6 sacks, 2 INTs [Top 5 defensive player of the year]

Jackson and Fuller 5+ INTs each

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My thoughts:

Trubisky: 4160 yds (260/gm), 31 TD, 12 INT; 320 rush yds, 3 rush TD

Montgomery: 1035 yds (230 carries at 4.5 ypc), 9 rush TD. 48/384/2 receiving TD

Robinson: 74 rec (128 targets, 58% catch rate), 1051 yd (14.2 ypc), 9 TD 

Mack: 15 sacks, 5 FF, 1 INT, 1 TD

Hicks: 7 sacks

Nichols: 4.5 sacks

Floyd: 8.5 sacks, 1 INT

Roquan: 144 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 3 FF, 2 INT

Fuller: 4 INT

Jackson: 6 INT, 1 TD

HHCD: 4 INT

Pineiro: 29/34 FG (85.3%), 47/48 XP (97.8%) 

Scoring:

31 pass TD x 6

15 rush TD x 6

4 D/ST TD x 6

1/2 on 2-pt conversions x 2

1 safety x 2 

47 XP x 1

29 FG x 3 

438 total points (27.4 ppg)

This represents a pretty reasonable offensive improvement IMO though only 17 more total points than last year.

-I allowed for 3 more pass TDs overall and 1 less rush TD

-I allowed 6 more made FG on only 4 more FGA, converting at the rate of the 17th most accurate FG kicker from 2018.

Essentially I allowed for improved but not elite offensive efficiency. That is offset overall in total points by my allowing for 2 less D/ST TDs than in 2018 (4 total TD was figuring 3-4 on defense and 0-1 on ST) for reasonable regression there on what was a historically high output in that regard in 2018. Basically we’re only scoring a little bit more overall, but the points are coming from a place far more sustainable and predictable. 

On one hand, 438 total points in 2018 would have been 4th in the league. On the other hand, it also would have been just 1 ppg above being at the edge of the top 10 overall. Really what I’m seeing is us somewhere in that 4-10 group in terms of points scored overall. We were 9th last year with 421 points. 

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