AZBearsFan Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 That time of year again - if you have any player stat projections for 2019 let’s post them here. Always fun for to look back on these in February and see how wrong I was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 Lets do over/unders again. These are official Vegas odds from some Vegas website(s) for over/under: Win total = 9 Passing yards for MT = 3800.5 Passing TD for MT = 26.5 Receiving yards for ARob = 900.5 Receiving TDs for Arob = 5.5 over/unders set by me: Offense: Rushing yards for Montgomery = 900 Rushing yards for Cohen = 400 Rushing yards for Davis = 250 Rushing yards for Patterson = 80 Receiving yards for Montgomery = 300 Receiving yards for Cohen = 650 Receiving yards for Davis = 100 Receiving yards for Patterson = 350 Receiving yards for Gabriel = 600 Receiving yards for Miller = 500 Receiving yards for Burton = 500 Receiving yards for Shaheen = 200 Defense: Tackles by R. Smith = 130 Tackles by D. Trevathan = 100 Sacks by K. Mack = 15 Sacks by A. Hicks = 8 Sacks by R. Smith = 9 Sacks by Floyd = 9 Sacks by Nichols = 5 Sacks by Goldman = 3 Ints by Fuller = 6 Ints by Prince = 5.5 Ints by Jackson = 7 Ints by Skrine = 2.5 Ints by HHCD = 5.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 14 minutes ago, dll2000 said: Lets do over/unders again. These are official Vegas odds from some Vegas website(s) for over/under: Win total = 9 PUSH Passing yards for MT = 3800.5 OVER Passing TD for MT = 26.5 OVER Receiving yards for ARob = 900.5 OVER Receiving TDs for Arob = 5.5 UNDER over/unders set by me: Offense: Rushing yards for Montgomery = 900 UNDER Rushing yards for Cohen = 400 UNDER Rushing yards for Davis = 250 OVER Rushing yards for Patterson = 80 OVER Receiving yards for Montgomery = 300 OVER Receiving yards for Cohen = 650 UNDER Receiving yards for Davis = 100 UNDER Receiving yards for Patterson = 350 UNDER Receiving yards for Gabriel = 600 UNDER Receiving yards for Miller = 500 OVER Receiving yards for Burton = 500 UNDER Receiving yards for Shaheen = 200 UNDER Defense: Tackles by R. Smith = 130 OVER Tackles by D. Trevathan = 100 UNDER Sacks by K. Mack = 15 OVER Sacks by A. Hicks = 8 UNDER Sacks by R. Smith = 9 OVER Sacks by Floyd = 9 UNDER Sacks by Nichols = 5 UNDER Sacks by Goldman = 3 OVER Ints by Fuller = 6 OVER Ints by Prince = 5.5 UNDER Ints by Jackson = 7 OVER Ints by Skrine = 2.5 OVER Ints by HHCD = 5.5 UNDER Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 29 minutes ago, dll2000 said: Lets do over/unders again. These are official Vegas odds from some Vegas website(s) for over/under: Win total = 9 OVER Passing yards for MT = 3800.5 OVER Passing TD for MT = 26.5 OVER Receiving yards for ARob = 900.5 OVER Receiving TDs for Arob = 5.5 OVER over/unders set by me: Offense: Rushing yards for Montgomery = 900 UNDER Rushing yards for Cohen = 400 OVER Rushing yards for Davis = 250 OVER Rushing yards for Patterson = 80 OVER Receiving yards for Montgomery = 300 OVER Receiving yards for Cohen = 650 OVER Receiving yards for Davis = 100 OVER Receiving yards for Patterson = 350 UNDER Receiving yards for Gabriel = 600 UNDER Receiving yards for Miller = 500 OVER Receiving yards for Burton = 500 OVER Receiving yards for Shaheen = 200 UNDER Defense: Tackles by R. Smith = 130 UNDER Tackles by D. Trevathan = 100 OVER Sacks by K. Mack = 15 UNDER Sacks by A. Hicks = 8 OVER Sacks by R. Smith = 9 UNDER Sacks by Floyd = 9 UNDER Sacks by Nichols = 5 OVER Sacks by Goldman = 3 OVER Ints by Fuller = 6 UNDER Ints by Prince = 5.5 UNDER Ints by Jackson = 7 UNDER Ints by Skrine = 2.5 UNDER Ints by HHCD = 5.5 UNDER I see a lot of unders with what I posted but I think the INTs will be spread out, and will be close to those numbers listed (except Prince, I think he is a 2 INT guy). Smith gets 2-3, Floyd and DT combine for 3, a few by reserves like Bush and Co., etc. Mack is going to get the same attention with double and triple teams, but the stunts and blitzes will give other DL more single blocks to fight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 Only 9 wins on the Vegas line? It was 10.5 earlier wasn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 22 minutes ago, soulman said: Only 9 wins on the Vegas line? It was 10.5 earlier wasn't it? That was before the amazing Sports Illustrated insights were bestowed. LMAO 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 35 minutes ago, Sugashane said: That was before the amazing Sports Illustrated insights were bestowed. LMAO I have a good buddy who bets the college games so he's always knowledgeable about betting lines even for the NFL. I'll have to ask him if he has a line on how the odds on the Bears have changed since camp opened. He usually asks me about the Bears and of course I missed it by a bit last year predicting for him 8 wins would be a safe bet on the over when I believe they were at 7.5. If they're truly at 9 I'd suggest he bet the over again. They should win no less than 10 even with a few injuries. This is a strong team with a very good coaching staff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, soulman said: Only 9 wins on the Vegas line? It was 10.5 earlier wasn't it? It's from a betting website. Probably some at 10.5 as well. Bets are often adjusted at each book individually based on money they have on one side or another. So lines can swing from book to book. Edited August 27, 2019 by dll2000 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, dll2000 said: It's from a betting website. Probably some at 10.5 as well. Bets are often adjusted at each book individually based on money they have on one side or another. So lines can swing from book to book. Sure but that is a big spread. Bigger than you'd typically see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardown3231 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Who the hell would bet Roquan would have OVER 9 sacks? I just can't see that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugashane Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 2 hours ago, beardown3231 said: Who the hell would bet Roquan would have OVER 9 sacks? I just can't see that. Dude. Just let me get one of the few right that I am bound to get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 These are official Vegas odds from some Vegas website(s) for over/under: Win total = 9 OVER Passing yards for MT = 3800.5 OVER Passing TD for MT = 26.5 OVER Receiving yards for ARob = 900.5 OVER Receiving TDs for Arob = 5.5 OVER over/unders set by me: Offense: Rushing yards for Montgomery = 900 OVER Rushing yards for Cohen = 400 UNDER Rushing yards for Davis = 250 OVER Rushing yards for Patterson = 80 OVER Receiving yards for Montgomery = 300 Receiving yards for Cohen = 650 OVER Receiving yards for Davis = 100 OVER Receiving yards for Patterson = 350 UNDER Receiving yards for Gabriel = 600 UNDER Receiving yards for Miller = 500 OVER Receiving yards for Burton = 500 OVER Receiving yards for Shaheen = 200 OVER 👀 Defense: Tackles by R. Smith = 130 OVER Tackles by D. Trevathan = 100 OVER Sacks by K. Mack = 15 UNDER Sacks by A. Hicks = 8 UNDER Sacks by R. Smith = 9 UNDER Sacks by Floyd = 9 OVER Sacks by Nichols = 5 OVER Sacks by Goldman = 3 OVER Ints by Fuller = 6 UNDER Ints by Prince = 5.5 UNDER Ints by Jackson = 7 UNDER Ints by Skrine = 2.5 OVER Ints by HHCD = 5.5 UNDER Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yomyyo Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 14 hours ago, dll2000 said: Lets do over/unders again. These are official Vegas odds from some Vegas website(s) for over/under: Win total = 9 OVER Passing yards for MT = 3800.5 OVER Passing TD for MT = 26.5 OVER Receiving yards for ARob = 900.5 OVER Receiving TDs for Arob = 5.5 OVER over/unders set by me: Offense: Rushing yards for Montgomery = 900 UNDER Rushing yards for Cohen = 400 UNDER Rushing yards for Davis = 250 OVER Rushing yards for Patterson = 80 OVER Receiving yards for Montgomery = 300 OVER Receiving yards for Cohen = 650 UNDER Receiving yards for Davis = 100 OVER Receiving yards for Patterson = 350 OVER Receiving yards for Gabriel = 600 OVER Receiving yards for Miller = 500 OVER Receiving yards for Burton = 500 OVER Receiving yards for Shaheen = 200 OVER Defense: Tackles by R. Smith = 130 OVER Tackles by D. Trevathan = 100 UNDER Sacks by K. Mack = 15 UNDER Sacks by A. Hicks = 8 UNDER Sacks by R. Smith = 9 UNDER Sacks by Floyd = 9 UNDER Sacks by Nichols = 5 UNDER Sacks by Goldman = 3 OVER Ints by Fuller = 6 UNDER Ints by Prince = 5.5 UNDER Ints by Jackson = 7 UNDER Ints by Skrine = 2.5 UNDER Ints by HHCD = 5.5 UNDER Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 What I think/expect Mitch: 4000 yards, 32 TDs, 14 INTs [3 TDS rushing] Robinson: 1100 yards, 10 TDs Montgomery: 1000 rushing, 8 TDs, 250 receiving 2 TDs Mack: 18 sacks [DPOY] Floyd: 8 sacks Hicks: 8 sacks Roquan: 140 tackles, 6 sacks, 2 INTs [Top 5 defensive player of the year] Jackson and Fuller 5+ INTs each 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 My thoughts: Trubisky: 4160 yds (260/gm), 31 TD, 12 INT; 320 rush yds, 3 rush TD Montgomery: 1035 yds (230 carries at 4.5 ypc), 9 rush TD. 48/384/2 receiving TD Robinson: 74 rec (128 targets, 58% catch rate), 1051 yd (14.2 ypc), 9 TD Mack: 15 sacks, 5 FF, 1 INT, 1 TD Hicks: 7 sacks Nichols: 4.5 sacks Floyd: 8.5 sacks, 1 INT Roquan: 144 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 3 FF, 2 INT Fuller: 4 INT Jackson: 6 INT, 1 TD HHCD: 4 INT Pineiro: 29/34 FG (85.3%), 47/48 XP (97.8%) Scoring: 31 pass TD x 6 15 rush TD x 6 4 D/ST TD x 6 1/2 on 2-pt conversions x 2 1 safety x 2 47 XP x 1 29 FG x 3 438 total points (27.4 ppg) This represents a pretty reasonable offensive improvement IMO though only 17 more total points than last year. -I allowed for 3 more pass TDs overall and 1 less rush TD -I allowed 6 more made FG on only 4 more FGA, converting at the rate of the 17th most accurate FG kicker from 2018. Essentially I allowed for improved but not elite offensive efficiency. That is offset overall in total points by my allowing for 2 less D/ST TDs than in 2018 (4 total TD was figuring 3-4 on defense and 0-1 on ST) for reasonable regression there on what was a historically high output in that regard in 2018. Basically we’re only scoring a little bit more overall, but the points are coming from a place far more sustainable and predictable. On one hand, 438 total points in 2018 would have been 4th in the league. On the other hand, it also would have been just 1 ppg above being at the edge of the top 10 overall. Really what I’m seeing is us somewhere in that 4-10 group in terms of points scored overall. We were 9th last year with 421 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.