Why a (healthy) Chicago Bears defense might not regress

[soulman]

Why a (healthy) Chicago Bears defense might not regress – and could improve

 

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2019/08/27/why-a-healthy-chicago-bears-defense-might-not-regress-and-could-improve/

By: Jeremy Layton | 2 hours ago

If you follow the Chicago Bears, you’ve undoubtedly seen at least one person talk about how the defense is a “prime candidate for regression.” Talking heads and analysts will beat you over the head with reasons why: takeaway rates and defensive touchdown numbers fluctuate year to year, history shows teams rarely lead the league in DVOA in consecutive seasons, yadda yadda yadda. It’s almost like some of these guys forget football is played by actual human beings and not a bunch of numbers on a spreadsheet.

There is a clear avenue for the Bears’ defense to regress, and that is through injuries. In 2018, the team as a whole stayed remarkably healthy: Chicago finished third-to-last in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Games Lost statistic. While Khalil Mack, Eddie Jackson and Bryce Callahan all suffered injuries, none of them were out for more than a handful of games (although, it should be noted, the latter two missed the playoff game). So if key defensive players miss significant time, the defense as a whole will slip, and the road to a repeat NFC North title will be undoubtedly tougher.

But if Matt Nagy’s cautious approach to preseason yields another year of good health, don’t expect the D to make the nosedive some expect. Even if the numbers nerds are right and their 19.9% turnover rate does come down a bit, there are reasons to believe they could still be dominant – and maybe even better.

Chuck Pagano will bring a different flair to the defense

Yes, Vic Fangio is in Denver. And yes, he is one of the best defensive minds in the sport. But while Chuck Pagano will be a change in both style and substance, he certainly has his strengths. As Baltimore’s defensive coordinator in 2011, Pagano oversaw a defense that finished third in both points and yards allowed, second in rush yards allowed and first in passing TDs allowed. Whereas Fangio is a chessmaster known for disguising coverages and goading offenses into mistakes, Pagano succeeds by generating pressure and blitzing offenses to death: the yin to Fangio’s yang. An aggressive mindset with this roster could generate some gaudy results.

Fangio’s defense blitzed at a well-below-average clip in 2018, sending five or more men only 17.7 percent of the time – sixth-lowest in the league. Despite this, Chicago finished with the league’s third-best pressure rate (34.2%) and third-most sacks (50). Under Pagano, that first number is sure to go up, and it’s reasonable to expect the second and third to follow. If you’re going to run a blitz-heavy scheme on defense, it’s certainly nice to have guys like Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks, Leonard Floyd and Roquan Smith at your disposal – it’d be downright surprising if Mack didn’t top his 12.5 sacks from last year.

Now, the great veteran quarterbacks can beat pressure. The Bears have 2019 dates with Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers (twice), not to mention young superstars Patrick Mahomes and Carson Wentz. Against those guys, the back end of the defense will need to make plays if the guys up front can’t get home. But Prince Amukamara is a strong cover corner who can match up against #1 receivers, while Kyle Fuller and Eddie Jackson are All-Pro playmakers. And if Dwayne Haskins is starting for Washington Week 3, or Daniel Jones for the Giants Week 12, yeah, good luck with that.

The losses aren’t as major as you might think

Ladies, find yourself a man who loves you as much as Pro Football Focus loves Adrian Amos. Now in Green Bay, Amos has been a PFF darling over the past two years: his 90.9 grade in 2017 was third-best among safeties, and he had another top-ten finish in 2018, while being named the ninth-best S in the league ahead of this season. If you ask the site – or any Packers fan on Twitter – they’ll tell you how big of a loss the 26-year-old will be.

The truth is, while Amos is a very solid player (and a perfect fit for Fangio’s defense), he was never asked to do too much, and is not the playmaker he is being paid like ($37 million over four years, the tenth-highest yearly salary among safeties). He is a stout tackler who rarely misses a defensive assignment, but he tallied only three interceptions through four seasons with the Bears. He has also never had an elite season without playing next to Eddie Jackson, who was a star from day one: Amos’ PFF grades in his first two seasons were 69.4 and 73.2. The Packers spent a first-round pick on Darnell Savage – a ball-hawking safety with a comparable player profile to Jackson’s – likely because they knew Amos would not be that guy.

For Chicago, there’s plenty of reason to think Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, who has first-round pedigree, will be able to shoulder the load in Amos’ absence. And Deon Bush has had an excellent camp, giving hope he can at least be a valuable depth piece.

The bigger loss, arguably, is Bryce Callahan, who Fangio clearly felt was valuable enough to poach for $21 million. In a league where teams increasingly use three-wide sets, nickel corner has become increasingly important. But Chicago has options: Buster Skrine was signed for $5 million less, sixth-round rookie Duke Shelley has attracted some buzz, and Sherrick McManis was adequate filling in after Callahan went down last year. The bottom line is, when you have four Pro Bowlers and three All-Pros on your defense, there are far worse things than losing your second-best safety and slot corner.

The gains from within could be greater than the losses 

The biggest defensive addition this offseason might not be Clinton-Dix or Skrine, but rather the full offseason Roquan Smith got with the team. In case you forgot, Smith missed nearly all of training camp last year over a contract dispute. He started off slow, but came on extremely strong and wound up leading the team in tackles. He added five sacks, and was one of three rookies to do so with 120-plus tackles since 2001 (the others being David Harris in 2007 and Darius Leonard last year).

With a full offseason in tow, Smith could make an enormous leap in year two. And you better believe Pagano will find ways to use him as a blitzer. Just look at this closing speed from preseason Week 1.

Bilal Nichols also had a productive rookie season, starting the year as a rotational lineman before playing his way into a starting role. He’s another candidate for a year-two jump. And let’s not forget Khalil Mack didn’t have a training camp last season, either. Having been released from the Jon Gruden Upside-Down for a full year, and in a scheme friendly to pass rushers, a Defensive Player of the Year award is very much in reach.

[soulman]

We've been saying all of this in terms of defending our turf and yet we're still challenged on it often.

Maybe if the same logic came from someone else it may sink in to others more.

Vic's defense was great but I have a feeling this one of Pagano's will be closer to emulating the '85 Bears and Buddy Ryan's philosophy of putting a stop watch on the QB.

Without the kind of players we have in our secondary I'd be more concerned but I believe they'll benefit from a front seven who can consistently apply pressure each passing down.

Pressure will come but from who and from where will be far less predictable under Pagano and IMHO the defense far less dependent on Mack and Hicks alone to be those guys who do.

We can already see that with the ILB blitzing these past few games.  Both Kwit and Iggy had sacks against Indy and I believe we had six total out of backups who are nowhere near the level of our starters.

So screw all of the metrics and critics.  That defense wants to make it's own mark and take it's own place next to two other SB defenses so I'm gonna stay on the no regression train.

[Heinz D.]

Wow. Jeremy Layton is willing to go out on a limb...and make sense.

Unbelievable!