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holt_bruce81

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Would you draft Darrell Henderson for Justin Hill? I feel gurley should be good most of the year and Henderson didn’t look good all preseason. Malcolm Brown might be the back up... I just feel Ingram iffy and Hill is the better player. Better chance to start in a run heavy offense. Thoughts in ppr 

im loaded at rb: D Cook, Jacobs, Jones, Sanders, penny, Henderson 

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4 hours ago, Humble_Beast said:

Would you draft Darrell Henderson for Justin Hill? I feel gurley should be good most of the year and Henderson didn’t look good all preseason. Malcolm Brown might be the back up... I just feel Ingram iffy and Hill is the better player. Better chance to start in a run heavy offense. Thoughts in ppr 

im loaded at rb: D Cook, Jacobs, Jones, Sanders, penny, Henderson 

Not sure why you’re so iffy on Ingram and yet not worried about Gurley. If anything i think Henderson has more current value because of his big play and catch ability 

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Is Josh Allen worth dropping for Jameis Winston? I drafted Allen late thinking he could have a great year, fantasy wise. Although when i look at my starting lineup, Josh Allen just makes me nervous. And i think Winston could be a fantasy star this year. My backup is Kyler Murray, whom im also nervous about. All the QBs flew off the board. @Forge Your thoughts?

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Just now, Eric dunn said:

Is Josh Allen worth dropping for Jameis Winston? I drafted Allen late thinking he could have a great year, fantasy wise. Although when i look at my starting lineup, Josh Allen just makes me nervous. And i think Winston could be a fantasy star this year. My backup is Kyler Murray, whom im also nervous about. All the QBs flew off the board. @Forge Your thoughts?

Eh....I'm debating. Because of the difference in their styles, this requires a little more number crunching. The biggest question is whether or not you think that Allen continues to run at the rate he did last year (over 600 yards on the ground, which is huge as that is another 63 points in his fantasy arsenal). 

Winston will probably average 4  more points a game throwing the football with regards to yardage. I figure he'll fit somewhere between 275 - 300. Allen meanwhile was only about 175. So that's a 4-5 point difference. Allen ran for about 50 yards per game, while you can typically expect about 1 point per game from Winston in this regard throughout his career. So total yardage is pretty much a wash. If you want to knock allen's number down a little (50 yards is not an easy total for a quarterback to keep up), slight advantage to Winston. 

I would expect considerably more passing touchdowns from Winston. Given the amount I expect that they throw the football, I'm going to say between 25-28. Allen I think will get between 16-20. Decent size advantage there. The thing with Allen is how many rushing touchdowns do you think are legitimately possible? He had eight last year...that seems....unlikely to be replicated. If you assume the widest margin between touchdown expectations, it's 48 points in a 4pt passing touchdown league, so Allen would need 8 again this year to match that. If he has 20 touchdowns, probably only needs about 4, which is easily doable. 

Very close here. I generally tend to favor upside on my bench more than stability or known quantities, but given that this is your starter, it's a little different. I really like Allen's opening slate of games (first three weeks), but he has some games where you absolutely can't play him (Denver, probably the Titans in week 4, Cowboys and Eagles most likely). He needs to be in a rotation in my opinion unless you are really banking hard on his rushing. The thing is, I don't love Kyler. It's not his fault, but that team as a whole is just really, really bad in my opinion. I'd probably rather have Winston / Allen than I would Murray / either. Games I can potentially like Murray in would be week 5 against Cincinnati, week 7 against the Giants, and week 10 against the Bucs. Maybe week 1 against the Lions, but Josh Allen gets the Jets, so I don't know that it's a huge advantage for Murray at this point. 

Honestly, I'd probably do what you can to stream. Murray has the best matchup in week 5 and week 7. Allen probably has the best out of the gate situation, so I wouldn't cut bait with him yet. GAmes 1-3 are easily startable for him. You may even want to use him week 4 because none of those guys have great matchups in that 4th week (pats, Seattle, Rams). There are a lot of games I dislike for Winston on that schedule, tbh. New Orleans twice, Carolina twice. Atlanta is okay. Titans and Jags games are not ideal. 3 of the 4 nfc west teams could have pretty good defenses as well. I get the impetus for playing him against the 49ers, but a team that added Dee Ford and Nick Bosa to their pass rush could have a very different defense than it did last year when it wasn't very good. 

I'd probably stick with Allen for now. Ride him the first 4 weeks, flip to Murray for week 5. Back to Allen Week 6 against Miami. Back to Murray week 7. Back to Allen week 8 for Washington. After that, it'll get a lot murkier, but that's probably how I'd ride it out. Given that I think Winston and Allen will put up comparable points in the end because of Allen's rushing, the schedule will matter in this, I think, so I'd favor Allen a little, and that's before accounting for any decent size jump from him in the passing game. 

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If Sammy Watkins ever got hurt, is Hardman a must add? I think I have room on my bench where I can hold onto both, but wondering if Hardman is worth rostering right now or if I should drop him for one of...

1. Carlos Hyde
2. Desean Jackson
3. Marquez Valdes-Scantling 
4. Tyrell Williams
5. Eric Ebron or Mark Andrews

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1 hour ago, CriminalMind said:

In a shallow, 10 team 0.5 PPR

If I have Carson at flex .. and a handful of strong RB and WR ... last spot should go to Penny or Justice Hill, G Allison, A Miller

I mean I'd probably just roster Penny. I think Justice Hill has more upside though, and since you're deep at both positions I would think about going there....

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