Strategy for Drafting in the Backend?

[RavensTillIDie]

I have the 9th pick in a 12 team PPR league. Having done a bunch of mock drafts, I have a relative idea of what players will be available where I am drafting, but I am still not sure what strategy I should be taking early on. That is, should I try to load up on second tier RBs early here (e.g. Cook, Jones, Freeman, Williams) or top tier WRs (e.g. OBJ, Adams, JuJu, Jones, etc.)?

[Runaway Jim]

I would try to get one of each with the top targets being OBJ and Cook.

[MightyMouse07]

I'd go WR/WR if I'm right near the turn in a PPR then RB/RB unless someone falls to me in the 1st. 

 

Julio / OBJ

Aaron Jones / Chris Carson

[JaguarCrazy2832]

44 minutes ago, MightyMouse07 said:

I'd go WR/WR if I'm right near the turn in a PPR then RB/RB unless someone falls to me in the 1st. 

 

Julio / OBJ

Aaron Jones / Chris Carson

This, maybe throw in Kelce there too in round 1/2. I love the RBs in rounds 3 & 4 way more than the WRs. You can roll the dice and hope a TE is there but overall I dont love the WRs at the end of the 3rd

[sammymvpknight]

My VBD calculation tells me that Kelce should go top 5. If he falls out of the top 10...that’s a steal. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

10 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

My VBD calculation tells me that Kelce should go top 5. If he falls out of the top 10...that’s a steal. 

Do tell...seriously I'm intrigued. We just ridiculed someone in our league for drafting Kelce #5 in a redraft

[sammymvpknight]

2 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Do tell...seriously I'm intrigued. We just ridiculed someone in our league for drafting Kelce #5 in a redraft

I can’t tell you my VBD strategy. Only two only people in the world know it and that’s all that will ever know. 

But I’d be happy to make a VBD thread to explain its purpose and the general strategies that are commonly used. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

3 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

I can’t tell you my VBD strategy. Only two only people in the world know it and that’s all that will ever know. 

But I’d be happy to make a VBD thread to explain its purpose and the general strategies that are commonly used. 

Go for it

[The BILLievers]

I'd do 2 WR's. I had a similar spot and went OBJ and JuJu knowing that the value of 3rd and 4th round RBs were great (Carson, Aaron Jones, Mack, White, Michel, etc.)

I don't think any of the RBs at that spot are elite and i consider OBJ, JuJu, Mike Thomas, etc. players as WR1's/elite.

[Forge]

I don't think that there's a preferred methodology at the back of the draft. Honestly, it may just depend on how I feel on whatever given day I'm drafting lol. 

I would typically like the double dipped position in rounds 1/2, but I think it needs to be mentioned that if you go wide receiver / wide receiver (which may provide the actual best players with pairings that could include Thomas / Hill / Adams / Jones along with OBJ as the second pick), you are almost committing yourself to Zero RB in my opinion. The next group of guys that I may really, really like may not make it back to you in round 3 (Aaron Jones and David Montgomery could, but I also think that they are a gamble that early as your RB1). Your best running back options could be Michel / Marlon Mack (though you could gamble it up with Melvin Gordon). At that point, guys like Ertz / Kittle become much bigger values over the running backs (and they may be available around this point) because their net value over their competition is so much greater than what those running backs are going to provide. The problem for me is that I'm a ardent opponent of taking tight ends that early, so I really dislike putting myself in a position where that becomes a valid choice to take one of them there. So if you go WR / WR, I think it may behoove you to take the TE at #3, then go for broke with Gordon at #4 if he's there (I think his ADP is right around back end 3 early 4). But again, that's going to put you in a precarious situation with regards to your running back situation if he doesn't come back (though give you one of the stronger teams if he does, immediately). The problem with drafting Gordon in the 4th is that your 6th is likely ticketed for Ekeler, which is less than ideal because it doesn't provide you with two fully functional, separate running backs if both are healthy and good to go - that means your 5th rounder likely has to be a running back as well (Miles Sanders?), unless you are comfortable with taking a guy like Shady much later on and running him out as your Rb2. There is some appeal with going WR / WR, and then hoping for Jones / Montgomery + Gordon 3/4 and then grabbing Henry and Howard later, but you're putting a lot of eggs in that Gordon basket. If he sits out, you're potentially in a lot of trouble. 

I've never been in love with the Zero RB approach (my league gives so much value to running backs it's insane...I just stock up and try to make trades), so I feel like one of those first two picks (and wouldn't even mind both) needs to be a running back. If you take two running backs, I think you may be ticketed for more of an "above average, but not great team unless you nail a sleeper or two in the later rounds type team". 2 running backs immediately probably means something like Connor / Bell (I'd try and stick with the former, personally) + Mixon / Cook (theoretically, Gurley could fall there, and risk / reward may well be worth it). Rounds 3/4 would be something like Cooper / Cooks / Diggs with regards to wide receivers, Ertz / Kittle may still be there at tight end (tempting), or potentially taking a third running back already (jones / montgomery / Gordon) while adding one receiver / tight end here, and then looking at more receivers at 5/6. Though this is less than ideal as the receivers are not great at this point in my opinion.  You're looking at Calvin Ridley (meh), Tyler Boyd (don't love it, not bad though), Alshon, Mike Williams (probably the preferred selection for me), or AJ Green (tempting, but scary given that it doesn't actually solve any problems the first several weeks). 

So I think the preferred methodology is probably RB / WR (or TE) unless you go RB at 1 and Gurley is there in the second (really hard to turn that upside down).  It gives you far more flexibility moving forward in the draft to where you don't have an immediate, obvious weakness that needs to be filled, and leaves all options on the table for BPA. You can debate which way you want  to go with regards to which one first, but I'd probably take Connor (if Zeke happens to be there at 9, I'll take Zeke) and then the wide receiver. On your wrap around, you're still going to have several of the wide receiver options potentially available (I've seen Hill / Thomas there in several drafts), and at worst should have JuJu, OBJ, Evans available. 

[flyers0909]

@Forge I'm kind of liking the 3/4 turn RBs.  Looking at ADP on FantasyPros for .5PPR picks 31-42 include Freeman, Mack, Jacobs, Henry, Carson, Montgomery, Ingram, Michel.  I feel like two of them is worst case scenario with a chance for Fournette/Kerryon/Jones to slide down a bit.

A starting 4 picks of Adams/Juju/Freeman/Carson is perfectly fine with me.  Though to be fair something similar like Conner/OBJ/Diggs/Carson is enticing too.  I think as long as there isn't a run on a specific position so you end up reaching, 2RB/2WR in the first four rounds gets you a really solid start picking from the back end.  If there's a run on one position take the other and you'll get awesome value.  

My strategy out of the 9 spot for my first pick is pick the highest remaining of this 9.

Barkley
CMC
Kamara
Elliott
Hopkins
Adams
Julio
Conner
Michael Thomas
 

My next 7 would be

Bell
Cook
DJ
Hill
OBJ
Juju
Chubb

Gurley's in there somewhere but I'm pretty confident in my team getting 2 of those 16 to start the draft. 

[Danger]

If I'm drafting late in the first I go WR, RB round 2. An then you just figure out what's the best value.

You'd like to get one of the top 3 or at least top... 6ish tight ends because of the massive drops in value, but fill out your starters at WR, WR, RB, RB, and TE. Then take go for more high risk high reward picks until round 9-11 and take your QB at that point. Last two picks should be Defense and Kicker. 

[Forge]

32 minutes ago, flyers0909 said:

@Forge I'm kind of liking the 3/4 turn RBs.  Looking at ADP on FantasyPros for .5PPR picks 31-42 include Freeman, Mack, Jacobs, Henry, Carson, Montgomery, Ingram, Michel.  I feel like two of them is worst case scenario with a chance for Fournette/Kerryon/Jones to slide down a bit.

A starting 4 picks of Adams/Juju/Freeman/Carson is perfectly fine with me.  Though to be fair something similar like Conner/OBJ/Diggs/Carson is enticing too.  I think as long as there isn't a run on a specific position so you end up reaching, 2RB/2WR in the first four rounds gets you a really solid start picking from the back end.  If there's a run on one position take the other and you'll get awesome value. 

It'll certainly depend on how you feel about the running backs at that point. I don't love Freeman as an RB1, though admittedly, there's upside that can work out there. He's the type of guy I risk in round 3 if I already have a solid Rb1 on my roster. He's got upside to outplay his ADP, of course, but he's only played a full season once in his career and never topped 1100 yards. He's always in a timeshare, so I don't love that. You seem to be much higher on Carson than I am - similar to Freeman, he's going to be in a time share. People bagged on the Penny selection, but the dude did average almost 5 yards per carry last year. He's going to get more than the 85 carries he had last year in my opinion, and Carson has almost no value out of the backfield, so in even a half ppr league, his upside is a little limited in my opinion. Add the injury risk on there as well. What's the net difference going to be between he and Tevin Coleman, who you can probably get 2 rounds later? Coleman should see 60-65% of the snap share in SF (he got 55% last year in Atlanta) play a much bigger role out of the backfield for a team that should have a competent offense. That's what makes this 3/4 turn with the running backs so tricky - for me the value isn't there for Carson at that point given the limited upside I see. But that may just be me being overly critical of Carson. 

Now, there are certainly guys that I like in this area that could potentially fall here and make this a really nice first four rounds (assuming wr / wr in rounds 1/2). I'm all in on Jones and Johnson if you can get them here and I would love that set up if you had something like two stud receivers backed up with Johnson or Jones. These are guys that have a chance to really blow by their ADP and be fringe Rb1 types. Michel is close to that range...but NE running backs are always scary as hell. I don't really care for Ingram. Montgomery is certainly an interesting candidate, haven't completely grabbed on to that bandwagon just yet though. Carson isn't a bad selection, it's just that I wonder if I can't do a little bit better overall passing on him here and going with someone like Coleman later. 

In the end, I just think that it's better to take one of each in the early rounds, and then keep the flexibility later on. 

[flyers0909]

8 hours ago, Forge said:

It'll certainly depend on how you feel about the running backs at that point. I don't love Freeman as an RB1, though admittedly, there's upside that can work out there. He's the type of guy I risk in round 3 if I already have a solid Rb1 on my roster. He's got upside to outplay his ADP, of course, but he's only played a full season once in his career and never topped 1100 yards. He's always in a timeshare, so I don't love that. You seem to be much higher on Carson than I am - similar to Freeman, he's going to be in a time share. People bagged on the Penny selection, but the dude did average almost 5 yards per carry last year. He's going to get more than the 85 carries he had last year in my opinion, and Carson has almost no value out of the backfield, so in even a half ppr league, his upside is a little limited in my opinion. Add the injury risk on there as well. What's the net difference going to be between he and Tevin Coleman, who you can probably get 2 rounds later? Coleman should see 60-65% of the snap share in SF (he got 55% last year in Atlanta) play a much bigger role out of the backfield for a team that should have a competent offense. That's what makes this 3/4 turn with the running backs so tricky - for me the value isn't there for Carson at that point given the limited upside I see. But that may just be me being overly critical of Carson. 

Now, there are certainly guys that I like in this area that could potentially fall here and make this a really nice first four rounds (assuming wr / wr in rounds 1/2). I'm all in on Jones and Johnson if you can get them here and I would love that set up if you had something like two stud receivers backed up with Johnson or Jones. These are guys that have a chance to really blow by their ADP and be fringe Rb1 types. Michel is close to that range...but NE running backs are always scary as hell. I don't really care for Ingram. Montgomery is certainly an interesting candidate, haven't completely grabbed on to that bandwagon just yet though. Carson isn't a bad selection, it's just that I wonder if I can't do a little bit better overall passing on him here and going with someone like Coleman later. 

In the end, I just think that it's better to take one of each in the early rounds, and then keep the flexibility later on. 

Ended up doing exactly what you said and went Julio/Cook/Edelman/Freeman as my first 4.  Didn't really have a chance to go RB/RB or WR/WR but I'm pretty happy with it.  

[Forge]

1 minute ago, flyers0909 said:

Ended up doing exactly what you said and went Julio/Cook/Edelman/Freeman as my first 4.  Didn't really have a chance to go RB/RB or WR/WR but I'm pretty happy with it.  

Oh no...my advice is never to actually be taken

I really like Freeman at 4 though. I think thats solid value given that offense should be good. He just needs to stay healthy.