GDT Week 1, Packers @ Bears

[Pool]

Innercepted! lmao

[beardown3231]

1 hour ago, Spartacus said:

You literally have 2 threads exclusive to talking about your new mediocre safety being better than Amos. Forums are full of homers and the Packers have the biggest forum on this board so its extremely filled with all sorts of both smart and very stupid opinions. 

Except Packers' fans argument for Amos is that he's steady and a sure tackler (BECAUSE PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS SAYS SO!!!) yet Clinton Dix missed less tackles than Amos did last year. Amos also had the benefit of playing behind the best front 7 in football last year, and you know, Clinton Dix didn't. Also, Amos has never played at a Pro Bowl level. Clinton Dix has.

So while it's fun to get behind your new, shiny $9M/year SS it's also fun to not look stupid, and trust me, saying things like "HHCD is terrible" and "Amos can be the difference in the division this year" are extremely stupid.

[RJ_11]

1 hour ago, Nads786 said:

This is why I don't play fantasy. I cannot will myself to root for any Packer player. I also have seasons of hating other teams for no rational reason. I've hated the Saints for three years after they won the Superbowl. 

See @CBears019 I'm more on this wavelength haha. I am a very bitter man, can't bring myself to want any other player in the NFC North to do well. My fantasy strategy is basically just pick players I like watching and have fun rooting for, more fun that way.

I'm with you as well on the disliking random teams @Nads786, I've had a real distain for Philly after they were dancing around in 2017 while they destroyed us. Last year's Playoff loss only added fuel to the fire.

I've grown comfortable with my bitterness.

[AZBearsFan]

8 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

Except Packers' fans argument for Amos is that he's steady and a sure tackler (BECAUSE PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS SAYS SO!!!) yet Clinton Dix missed less tackles than Amos did last year. Amos also had the benefit of playing behind the best front 7 in football last year, and you know, Clinton Dix didn't. Also, Amos has never played at a Pro Bowl level. Clinton Dix has.

So while it's fun to get behind your new, shiny $9M/year SS it's also fun to not look stupid, and trust me, saying things like "HHCD is terrible" and "Amos can be the difference in the division this year" are extremely stupid.

There’s out of town stupid everywhere (meant as a general term and not specific to any one individual or team). Sometimes you just don’t know what you don’t know. It’s entirely possible HHCD is an upgrade over Amos in some regards and a downgrade in others, and vice versa. Reality is Amos will likely produce less big plays for GB than HHCD did over his tenure but possibly less bad ones too. The biggest difference I see (beyond those financial in nature) is that the surrounding Bears D appears to be better equipped to cover for HHCD’s perceived deficiencies, same as it did for Amos. Because of that, IMO we can get a higher net outcome (as many of the good plays and less of the bad) from HHCD than other teams can. Conversely, those surrounding Amos in GB can’t create ball skills where they don’t already exist. 

Edited September 4, 2019 by AZBearsFan

[beardown3231]

8 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

There’s out of town stupid everywhere (meant as a general term and not specific to any one individual or team). Sometimes you just don’t know what you don’t know. It’s entirely possible HHCD is an upgrade over Amos in some regards and a downgrade in others, and vice versa. Reality is Amos will likely produce less big plays for GB than HHCD did over his tenure but possibly less bad ones too. The biggest difference I see (beyond those financial in nature) is that the surrounding Bears D appears to be better equipped to cover for HHCD’s perceived deficiencies, same as it did for Amos. Because of that, IMO we can get a higher net outcome (as many of the good plays and less of the bad) from HHCD than other teams can. Conversely, those surrounding Amos in GB can’t create ball skills where they don’t already exist. 

That's my point. I don't necessarily see any Bears fans believing HHCD is going to be really good. I think we've all admitted that he'll be one of the 3 worst players on the defense, just as Amos was. However I do see Packers fans thinking that Amos is going to be really good (see that Pat Butkowski guy or whatever his name is on twitter, for instance). Amos is the safer signing. HHCD is the boom/bust signing. 

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

Nothing really. It just passes time and give you a chance to trash talk a fellow poster while putting in no real work.  lol

 

You draft players and set up your line up (usually 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 flex - any non-qb can fit there, 1 defense and special teams group, but more roles can be added). Their stats all have a point system, like 4 points for a passing TD, 6 for a rushing TD, .5 points for a catch, etc. The better they do the more points they total, and at the end of the week all your players in the line up are added up vs all your opponent's points. Whoever has the highest total wins, and the league does all the math for us, so it is a lazy man's game.

Now some leagues people will take seriously and bet money, but I suck at all gambling so I never would.

 

I'm hoping Sowell doesn't somehow find himself getting too many reps. If we have a reserve OT out there and he becomes the 'OT3' to that side to help out then fine, but he shouldn't probably get more than 10 reps on offense per game realistically.

I have no idea how Pagano will want to use Kwiat, he is a guy who can attack but if he has to go laterally he can be abused.

I joined the MN weekly pick em confidence thread.  Hope they calculate my picks.  

 

[dll2000]

30 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

Except Packers' fans argument for Amos is that he's steady and a sure tackler (BECAUSE PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS SAYS SO!!!) yet Clinton Dix missed less tackles than Amos did last year. Amos also had the benefit of playing behind the best front 7 in football last year, and you know, Clinton Dix didn't. Also, Amos has never played at a Pro Bowl level. Clinton Dix has.

So while it's fun to get behind your new, shiny $9M/year SS it's also fun to not look stupid, and trust me, saying things like "HHCD is terrible" and "Amos can be the difference in the division this year" are extremely stupid.

Great post.  

[dll2000]

23 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

There’s out of town stupid everywhere (meant as a general term and not specific to any one individual or team). Sometimes you just don’t know what you don’t know. It’s entirely possible HHCD is an upgrade over Amos in some regards and a downgrade in others, and vice versa. Reality is Amos will likely produce less big plays for GB than HHCD did over his tenure but possibly less bad ones too. The biggest difference I see (beyond those financial in nature) is that the surrounding Bears D appears to be better equipped to cover for HHCD’s perceived deficiencies, same as it did for Amos. Because of that, IMO we can get a higher net outcome (as many of the good plays and less of the bad) from HHCD than other teams can. Conversely, those surrounding Amos in GB can’t create ball skills where they don’t already exist. 

@beardown3231
 

I have said repeatedly think the big knocks on HHCD aren't all fair.   Remember there was one play last year where ARob quit on a route and then didn't chase on interception. Literally one play, not saying it's acceptable, but he didn't repeat it.   A lot of Bears fans said they would never, ever forgive him for it.  They did, but it took probably the Philly game for a lot of them.

Well HHCD had about 4 or 5 of those plays for Packers and they cannot forgive him for it.   He just made low effort tackle on a big player coming at him or incidents like that.  Business decisions as Deion Sanders used to say.   Not a great way to earn fan love.  They were few and far between in volume of plays, but they happened.   But, everything is his fault now as that hatred doesn't die. 

Let me explain his situation.  He played single high safety on vast majority of snaps for GB and Wash. and when I say high I mean high.  He was 20+ yards deep.  4 secs into many plays he was facing 2 WRs coming at 12+ yards and open.   What do you do?   You can either take one guy and leave other wide open or split the difference and hope QB makes a bad throw.  Either way you are usually screwed as the deep safety.  There is literally no way to look good in that situation.   Eddie Jackson is better on his break than just about anybody, BUT he gets to do it at 3 secs vs. 4 AND there isn't usually two wide open receivers entering the deep zone.   That is huge.  

Then on runs and screens HHCD is coming from way deep and one on one with a WR or RB with 5-10 yards of open space between him and the runner.   You think that is easy to handle you have never played defense at any level of football.   The great Eddie Jackson struggles there too, most every does, it's hard.  

Conversely when you watch Amos, because of his role in scheme and players around him he is within arms reach of a defender every time the ball arrives.  He rarely played deep at snap.   It isn't a fair comparison in the least.  When Amos was forced into a situation where he had to make an open field play with space, just like HHCD was on the regular, he struggled.

Having said all that I think because of aggressive nature of defense there is going to be perceived 'mistakes' from all secondary, that is nature of the beast.  But they aren't really mistakes so much as you blitzed and got burned for it as somebody leaked out where a blitzed man was or a somebody got behind defense in man.  It happens.

Trying to compare two is really hard and not really apt.  Amos played near LINE OF SCRIMMAGE and HHCD played deep.  

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

[abstract_thought]

One of the things we'll see play out this season is the balance between risk-taking and conservatism.

The HHCD/Amos discussion embodies this at a positional/unit level and will help us answer questions like, "Can you play sound pass defense with a secondary full of guys who want to make plays on the ball?"

I'm also interested in how this impacts team strategy through the differing styles of Fangio and Pagano. A more conservative defense may be better suited to teams lacking great offense. Expecting average offensive production from this Bears team, will giving up more big plays be the difference in close games?

[dll2000]

4 minutes ago, abstract_thought said:

One of the things we'll see play out this season is the balance between risk-taking and conservatism.

The HHCD/Amos discussion embodies this at a positional/unit level and will help us answer questions like, "Can you play sound pass defense with a secondary full of guys who want to make plays on the ball?"

I'm also interested in how this impacts team strategy through the differing styles of Fangio and Pagano. A more conservative defense may be better suited to teams lacking great offense. Expecting average offensive production from this Bears team, will giving up more big plays be the difference in close games?

Remember an aggressive defense, while giving up big plays, can produce a lot of 3 and outs and field position which results in offensive points over time.

You aren't going to see many long sustained drives (in theory).  

Also with all the players attacking the ball like they have been, it keeps offensive players from making aggressive moves.  They are mostly thinking of protecting the football.

Another point is Fangio confused with his coverages, but the O line was rarely confused on who to block.  Our players had to beat blocks.   Pagano reverses that.   Instead of making the QB think, he makes the O line think and whoever is calling the protection to think.   So if you have rookie O linemen or anyone makes a mistake you can often get a free rusher.   Or they have too much protection and you are dropping off guys.   Although I was never a big fan of dropping NGs and like into middle zone.  We'll see how they do.  

All that being said big plays can suck because it's instant points and a major momentum shift.  

It's all philosophy.  One isn't right and one isn't wrong.  It's just different.

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

[beardown3231]

22 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

Remember an aggressive defense, while giving up big plays, can produce a lot of 3 and outs and field position which results in offensive points over time.

You aren't going to see many long sustained drives (in theory).  

Also with all the players attacking the ball like they have been, it keeps offensive players from making aggressive moves.  They are mostly thinking of protecting the football.

Another point is Fangio confused with his coverages, but the O line was rarely confused on who to block.  Our players had to beat blocks.   Pagano reverses that.   Instead of making the QB think, he makes the O line think and whoever is calling the protection to think.   So if you have rookie O linemen or anyone makes a mistake you can often get a free rusher.   Or they have too much protection and you are dropping off guys.   Although I was never a big fan of dropping NGs and like into middle zone.  We'll see how they do.  

All that being said big plays can suck because it's instant points and a major momentum shift.  

It's all philosophy.  One isn't right and one isn't wrong.  It's just different.

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

I already said this a month or two ago but I actually want Pagano to not blitz as much as he likes to. Now I know Nagy says "be you" but if you an All Pro or two rushing the passer, another decent edge rusher and a MLB who runs like hell, I don't think you need to "be you" as much as you want.

[dll2000]

1 minute ago, beardown3231 said:

I already said this a month or two ago but I actually want Pagano to not blitz as much as he likes to. Now I know Nagy says "be you" but if you an All Pro or two rushing the passer, another decent edge rusher and a MLB who runs like hell, I don't think you need to "be you" as much as you want.

He doesn't have to blitz, he just has to threaten the blitz.  Whole point is to screw up the blocking assignments.

That being said Roquan and Floyd do need to be relatively frequent blitzers, they were made in a laboratory for blitzing.  Fangio didn't understand that enough.

 

 

 

 

 

[SLCbear]

6 hours ago, malagabears said:

Ignorant old newb here, what purpose does Fantasy Football fulfill and how does it work?

I'm with you bro ...every year I say how next year will finally be the year I play, but just cannot find the motivation to follow through ...esp without some largr monetary/prize incentive

Just can't get into it

[soulman]

3 hours ago, Uncle Buck said:

I figured some of you guys might get a kick out of this.  These three should get together every year before the first Bears/Packers game. 

 

LMFAO.....and.....to this day I still hate Brett Favre.  May his Wranglers shrink and mash his tiny.....(oh wait, I can't say that can I).

Aw nuts.

Here.....this is much better.

[Packerraymond]

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

@beardown3231
 

I have said repeatedly think the big knocks on HHCD aren't all fair.   Remember there was one play last year where ARob quit on a route and then didn't chase on interception. Literally one play, not saying it's acceptable, but he didn't repeat it.   A lot of Bears fans said they would never, ever forgive him for it.  They did, but it took probably the Philly game for a lot of them.

Well HHCD had about 4 or 5 of those plays for Packers and they cannot forgive him for it.   He just made low effort tackle on a big player coming at him or incidents like that.  Business decisions as Deion Sanders used to say.   Not a great way to earn fan love.  They were few and far between in volume of plays, but they happened.   But, everything is his fault now as that hatred doesn't die. 

Let me explain his situation.  He played single high safety on vast majority of snaps for GB and Wash. and when I say high I mean high.  He was 20+ yards deep.  4 secs into many plays he was facing 2 WRs coming at 12+ yards and open.   What do you do?   You can either take one guy and leave other wide open or split the difference and hope QB makes a bad throw.  Either way you are usually screwed as the deep safety.  There is literally no way to look good in that situation.   Eddie Jackson is better on his break than just about anybody, BUT he gets to do it at 3 secs vs. 4 AND there isn't usually two wide open receivers entering the deep zone.   That is huge.  

Then on runs and screens HHCD is coming from way deep and one on one with a WR or RB with 5-10 yards of open space between him and the runner.   You think that is easy to handle you have never played defense at any level of football.   The great Eddie Jackson struggles there too, most every does, it's hard.  

Conversely when you watch Amos, because of his role in scheme and players around him he is within arms reach of a defender every time the ball arrives.  He rarely played deep at snap.   It isn't a fair comparison in the least.  When Amos was forced into a situation where he had to make an open field play with space, just like HHCD was on the regular, he struggled.

Having said all that I think because of aggressive nature of defense there is going to be perceived 'mistakes' from all secondary, that is nature of the beast.  But they aren't really mistakes so much as you blitzed and got burned for it as somebody leaked out where a blitzed man was or a somebody got behind defense in man.  It happens.

Trying to compare two is really hard and not really apt.  Amos played near LINE OF SCRIMMAGE and HHCD played deep.  

You have no choice but to play Haha deep.  He's not nearly physical enough to play in the box and doesn't tackle or take angles well. In the slot we tried to use him there and he just can't cover man to man. Teams would go trips on us in the red zone to pull Haha down onto the slot guy and they'd run that guy on a post, and I swear by the time we traded him teams must've been 6/6 for 6 TDs doing that to us. He'd get beat every time. 

What you're hoping you get is 2016 Haha. A guy many Packers fans thought was a long term staple of this team and a future leader of the D. The moment he was announced as a Pro Bowler that year his play slipped and never recovered. Almost like he thought the Pro Bowl trip earned him a mega deal and he could coast the next few season into a new deal. What he since then was the king of intercepting poorly thrown balls and tipped passes and living off past hype. The fact the Packers only had Brice and Tramon behind him and still dealt him and then Washington gave up a 4th for him and didn't attempt to re-sign him says a lot about what he's sadly become. He deserves all the criticism his past 2 years of play has gotten him, you just have to hope he's been forced to eat some humble pie and get back to what he was. I was hoping that for him (until he signed with you) because he is genuinely a good dude.