Picking 5th overall (12 team) strategy help

[BowserBroncos]

So I'll have a draft tonight picking 5th on a 12 team standard league and I'm picking overall. Snake draft

I know Kamara will be the 1st pick cuz the guy is a Saints fan and he has Kamara's name on his team name. So I'm guessing Barkley will go at 2 followed by CMC.

Than I don't have a clue what #4 will do, but I got to think he will decide between taking a chance on Zeke or going another direction.

So what do you think I should do if Zeke went 4? And should I draft Zeke if he fall to 5? Bell, David Johnson or Gurley are good picks at 5 if only RBs go from 1 to 4?
 

And what should I look for on round 2, 3 and 4?

Edited September 2, 2019 by BowserBroncos

[sammymvpknight]

Depends on position. If you want a RB, I personally like Chubb or Conner. If you want a WR, go Hopkins. If you are really have a pair...go Kelce. 

[BowserBroncos]

6 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

Depends on position. If you want a RB, I personally like Chubb or Conner. If you want a WR, go Hopkins. If you are really have a pair...go Kelce. 

I'd prefer to RB early, but if Barkley, Kamara and CMC are gone I don't know if it will be the best option.

I think Zeke will fall to me, but I still not secure to pick him even with the reports that the contract negotiations are progressing.

[Forge]

If Zeke goes 4, I've mostly been going the wide receiver route because I think that well dries up surprisingly quickly. I've taken some guys like Connor / Gurley in the later first, but in the instances that I pick 5-6, I've mainly gone Hopkins. In a ppr league, two elite receivers is amazing if you can get them. Something like Hopkins + Evans, then filling out your running backs in rounds 3 & 4 with Carson / Jones / Kerryon in round 3 followed by maybe Michel or James white in round 4 isn't the worst thing ever. You could even delay the running back for another round - take another receiver as your flex from the likes of Cooks / Golloday / kupp (I'd probably avoid TY here), and in round 5 swing a guy like maybe James white (he should go slightly higher, but his ADP is only 51 and you should have 54 or 55 or whatever it is, so not impossible he's there), or Duke / Coleman. Not ideal, but that team set up isn't bad at all if you ask me. A roster starting out with Carson / White + Hopkins / Evans / Cooks is better in performance than it looks on paper, particularly in a ppr league. You could supplement those running backs with a guy like Ekeler, Cohen in round 6 if you want. I don't know that Cohen replicates last season, but we already know that he can vastly out play his adp in limited snaps based on last year (I believe he finished as rb11 last year, which is crazy to think about). 

[EaglesPeteC]

Pick the good players.

Don’t pick the crappy ones

Profit

[BowserBroncos]

12 minutes ago, Forge said:

If Zeke goes 4, I've mostly been going the wide receiver route because I think that well dries up surprisingly quickly. I've taken some guys like Connor / Gurley in the later first, but in the instances that I pick 5-6, I've mainly gone Hopkins. In a ppr league, two elite receivers is amazing if you can get them. Something like Hopkins + Evans, then filling out your running backs in rounds 3 & 4 with Carson / Jones / Kerryon in round 3 followed by maybe Michel or James white in round 4 isn't the worst thing ever. You could even delay the running back for another round - take another receiver as your flex from the likes of Cooks / Golloday / kupp (I'd probably avoid TY here), and in round 5 swing a guy like maybe James white (he should go slightly higher, but his ADP is only 51 and you should have 54 or 55 or whatever it is, so not impossible he's there), or Duke / Coleman. Not ideal, but that team set up isn't bad at all if you ask me. A roster starting out with Carson / White + Hopkins / Evans / Cooks is better in performance than it looks on paper, particularly in a ppr league. You could supplement those running backs with a guy like Ekeler, Cohen in round 6 if you want. I don't know that Cohen replicates last season, but we already know that he can vastly out play his adp in limited snaps based on last year (I believe he finished as rb11 last year, which is crazy to think about). 

My biggest problem is that this is a Non-PPR league (I said Standard, but I just saw that NFL.com change the Standard to PPR). If this was a PPR League I would blind-fold me and set my pick on Hopkins. But on a non-PPR league got me wonder if guys like Bell, DJohnson, Todd Gurley, Nick Chubb and James Conner wouldn't be a better pick than Hopkins.

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, BowserBroncos said:

My biggest problem is that this is a Non-PPR league (I said Standard, but I just saw that NFL.com change the Standard to PPR). If this was a PPR League I would blind-fold me and set my pick on Hopkins. But on a non-PPR league got me wonder if guys like Bell, DJohnson, Todd Gurley, Nick Chubb and James Conner wouldn't be a better pick than Hopkins.

If it's non PPR, then I probably actually side more toward Gurley, but so far this season, I think I've just been more willing to accept that risk than a lot of people. Connor and Chubb are fine alternate choices. I'm not really on the Bell bandwagon, so I'd probably go all three of those guys before Bell. 

[N4L]

@BowserBroncos you can take Zeke if he's there then just make sure to draft Pollard earlier than he's supposed to go. That way you have both guys and are covered no matter what happens. 

Or go DeAndre Hopkins. I love DeAndre Hopkins and am always confident in myself hitting on a RB later in the draft. There are a lot of mid tier rbs this year that could end up being top end guys. 

You honestly can't go wrong either way 

[BowserBroncos]

10 hours ago, N4L said:

@BowserBroncos you can take Zeke if he's there then just make sure to draft Pollard earlier than he's supposed to go. That way you have both guys and are covered no matter what happens. 

Or go DeAndre Hopkins. I love DeAndre Hopkins and am always confident in myself hitting on a RB later in the draft. There are a lot of mid tier rbs this year that could end up being top end guys. 

You honestly can't go wrong either way 

I end up taking Adams....Hopkins went 4, Zeke almost fall out from the 1st round.

My team right after the draft looked like this:

QB: Baker Mayfield
RB: Joe Mixon, Devonta Freeman, Aaron Jones, Devin Singletary and Kalen Ballage
WR: Davante Adams, Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green, Corey Davis and Courtland Sutton
TE: Delaine Walker and Darren Waller 
K: Fairbairn
DEF: Bills

But as soon the draft ended I received two offers from teams that didn't liked their draft so I traded Delaine Walker for Austin Hooper and traded Tyler Boyd for David Montgomery and Broncos defense. (droped Bills D)

I think I rebounded well for passing on Zeke, I probably a little thin at WR, but could have a huge group of RBs in my hands. As long Adams stay healthy I'm good (hopefully Green comeback with a strong season when he is ready to play).

I'm now think if I should drop Ballage and Waller for those guys that went undrafted:

QB Josh Allen, WR Tyrell Williams, WR Marquise Brown, WR Cole Beasley and TE Noah Fant 

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, BowserBroncos said:

Tyler Boyd for David Montgomery and Broncos defense. (droped Bills D)

That's an amazing trade for you, especially given that this isn't a PPR league. I'm not sure what that guy was doing. 

I would probably see if I can flip one of your backs for another wide receiver at the current point in time. You're arguably 5 deep, which is probably one more than you need, and you can probably extricate some solid value from a team that is a little weak. 

7 minutes ago, BowserBroncos said:

I'm now think if I should drop Ballage and Waller for those guys that went undrafted:

QB Josh Allen, WR Tyrell Williams, WR Marquise Brown, WR Cole Beasley and TE Noah Fant 

Just FYI, this is why I had mentioned in the other thread that I don't like taking Mayfield in round 6. Obviously, Mayfield will likely be better than he was last year, but did you know that on a PPG basis, Allen was actually the better quarterback in fantasy? I'm not saying that it continues this year - obviously I expect huge things from Mayfield, but it's one of the reasons I'm hesitant to use up a pick that high on a quarterback. 

[CriminalMind]

I just cant take Baker until maybe the 8th ... honestly. I don't plan to take a QB until 8th or 9th ... and even then its got to be high upside (Jackson or Murray) ... else .. I'm fine with taking Allen, Jimmy in the 13th round or so.

Edited September 3, 2019 by CriminalMind

[BayRaider]

I pick 5 tomorrow as well. I’m hoping that the Zeke contract talks get wrapped up. He’d be my pick at 5 if there. He’ll probably get picked 4th and my pick would be David Johnson. I think DJ is gonna have a solid bounce back year. 

[Forge]

14 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

I pick 5 tomorrow as well. I’m hoping that the Zeke contract talks get wrapped up. He’d be my pick at 5 if there. He’ll probably get picked 4th and my pick would be David Johnson. I think DJ is gonna have a solid bounce back year. 

I avoided DJ in all my drafts this year. I just couldn't get into it. There's such a good chance that he's competent this year but just ends up as like rb13 or something. That team is so bad, and honestly I just don't love six games against Seattle / SF / Rams. Those teams probably aren't going to be "elite" defenses, but they should all be pretty good against hte run and very solid overall. They have some easier games down the line for sure with regards to defenses (Bucs, Giants, Bengals), but overall just not a schedule I love. 

Honestly, shouldn't you be hoping they don't get wrapped up? That's the most likely way he slips to 5 in my opinion. 

[BowserBroncos]

2 hours ago, CriminalMind said:

I just cant take Baker until maybe the 8th ... honestly. I don't plan to take a QB until 8th or 9th ... and even then its got to be high upside (Jackson or Murray) ... else .. I'm fine with taking Allen, Jimmy in the 13th round or so.

The problem is the guys I play with...I knew I had to stretch on a QB, most of them go QBs pretty early and take more than one QB on their roster....if I waited until the 8 I would be looking at Josh Allen, Kyler Murray and Dak (excluding guys like Eli, Carr, Flacco, Brissett and Dalton from the equation)....Dak end up being picked in the 15th round and Allen went undrafted....I could be ok with either if I waited, but the QB run that was installed after I took Baker made me not lose many valued guys I could have picked with that pick.

The guy that was picking right before me said he was going to pick Baker if I did took him there.

[BowserBroncos]

3 hours ago, Forge said:

That's an amazing trade for you, especially given that this isn't a PPR league. I'm not sure what that guy was doing. 

I would probably see if I can flip one of your backs for another wide receiver at the current point in time. You're arguably 5 deep, which is probably one more than you need, and you can probably extricate some solid value from a team that is a little weak. 

Just FYI, this is why I had mentioned in the other thread that I don't like taking Mayfield in round 6. Obviously, Mayfield will likely be better than he was last year, but did you know that on a PPG basis, Allen was actually the better quarterback in fantasy? I'm not saying that it continues this year - obviously I expect huge things from Mayfield, but it's one of the reasons I'm hesitant to use up a pick that high on a quarterback. 

Yeah....I didn't think twice about taking that deal....that guy drafted 1st end up with a pretty good group of RBs, but he was very thin at WR....still think he payed to much for Boyd. I'm probably hold at my RBs for now, but I really have the possibilty of trading for a WR later (For now I'll just drop Ballage for Tyrell Williams)

Yeah I know....but I didn't lost too many to grab Mayfield (almost every pick before me was QB and the guy that was drafting before me took Hockenson at 6 because he got desperate after I took Mayfield, that was his pick)

Would you add Allen and go with 2 QBs?