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Picking 5th overall (12 team) strategy help


BowserBroncos

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7 minutes ago, BowserBroncos said:



Would you add Allen and go with 2 QBs?

A lot of factors go into that. 

Mayfield is good enough that you probably will more or less feel fine with him starting each and every game. If you had someone with a particularly brutal schedule, or someone that just wasn't good, bouncing back and forth between two would make sense. Phillip Rivers is great example of that because he gets Denver twice, Chicago, Tennessee, Jax and the Vikings, and he doesn't always play that great against KC. So if I had Rivers as my starter, I probably roster two and alternate based on schedule. 

Typically, I carry only 1 quarterback on my roster. I do carry 3 in 2 quarterback leagues. In a 10 man league, I never carry two (unless I'm blocking a transaction from an opponent). In a 12 man league, its certainly more debatable and a lot closer. In a 10 man league, Jimmy G, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Matt Stafford and Maybe even Kirk Cousins are all potentially undrafted even if everyone in your league is carrying 2 quarterbacks but you. That's insane. There's no real reason to roster 2 in that scenario. In a 12 man roster, the best you may have open to you may be Allen (which is fine), Stafford, Dalton, etc. It's slightly more slim for sure. Allen has upside because of his running (600+ yards last year) and while I think that number certainly regresses this this year on a per game basis, I still see him as likely to rush for 600 yards or so over the season. There's certainly value there. I'd rahter hold positional players though. If you think Allen is going to go off, by all means, roster him - it's really no different than having a sleeper at running back / wide receiver or wherever. But otherwise I'll just see what is there when Baker goes on a bye. 

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24 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

So my draft is about to start. If the Big Four are gone, who to draft? David Johnson? Nick Chubb? DeAndre Hopkins? LeVeon Bell? Slight reach on Joe Mixon who I really like? Decisions decisions...

I mostly went wide receiver at this spot. Chubb or Connor should (no guarantee, but they were in the majority of my drafts) be available in the next round for you. I don't understand the love on Mixon this year. Great talent, but that offensive line is putrid and that passing game seems pretty anemic without AJ Green. Their receivers are brutal. I like him in round 2, but I can't reach for him at 5, I think. I understand those that took DJ, but I'm not big on him myself. Volume will be there, not so sure the actual stats will be. If I had to put money on the guy going in the first round most likely to fall out of the top 10 of his own position, my money would probably be on DJ. That floor is too low for me in the first round. I'm not huge on Bell this year, but I'd gamble on him before DJ / Mixon. 

If it's standard, non ppr scoring, the running backs make a ton of sense here. 

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5 minutes ago, Forge said:

I mostly went wide receiver at this spot. Chubb or Connor should (no guarantee, but they were in the majority of my drafts) be available in the next round for you. I don't understand the love on Mixon this year. Great talent, but that offensive line is putrid and that passing game seems pretty anemic without AJ Green. Their receivers are brutal. I like him in round 2, but I can't reach for him at 5, I think. I understand those that took DJ, but I'm not big on him myself. Volume will be there, not so sure the actual stats will be. If I had to put money on the guy going in the first round most likely to fall out of the top 10 of his own position, my money would probably be on DJ. That floor is too low for me in the first round. I'm not huge on Bell this year, but I'd gamble on him before DJ / Mixon. 

If it's standard, non ppr scoring, the running backs make a ton of sense here. 

I wasnt sold on Mixon much at all either but the fact is he still put up strong numbers with the same crummy OL

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3 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I wasnt sold on Mixon much at all either but the fact is he still put up strong numbers with the same crummy OL

strong numbers is relative. We'd need more data with regards to the type of league it is. In a ppr league, he was 10th for running backs in points per game. Not bad, certainly not worth #5 pick. Bigger problem is that there were also 10 receivers who average more points per game than he did, not to mention 2 tight ends. Davante adams outscored him on a ppg basis by 5 points. That's huge. 

In standard leagues, he finished as the #9 running back with only 3 receivers higher than him,  so obviously that would justify a late first, early second round pick. Not sure that I would love him at #5, but it's certainly more palatable given that two of the running backs ahead of him were Gordon and Hunt. 

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2 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Not a huge fan of my team so far but not bad, and yes PPR 12 team. 5th pick.

1. David Johnson

2. Joe Mixon (was surprised he was there)

3. Chris Carson

4. Cooper Kupp

5. Corey Davis (I really wanted Calvin Ridley or Mike Williams but taken right before me)

Is Melvin Gordon worth a gamble in the 6th?

@Forge @JaguarCrazy2832

 

Is Gordon worth the gamble in the 6th? Yes, I think so. But it depends on who else is there to be honest. There are going to be players on the board there that are probably going to be meaningful to your team. The good news for you is that if Davis is already off the board, there's probably nobody at wide receiver that I'd care to have anyway. Depends on how your tight end tier looks and what is  still there. I think there's merit, if you're at the end of your tier 2 guys (Henry, Engram, Howard), that you take one of them before being forced to wait until the end of the draft (if you miss that second tier, TE should probably just be one of your last picks...just target a guy like Hooper late or something). Quarterbacks I'm probably still waiting on. So yeah...depending on how the board looks, I could definitely see merit for going Gordon. Big risk. Potential big time reward. 

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3 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

1. David Johnson

2. Joe Mixon (was surprised he was there)

3. Chris Carson

4. Cooper Kupp

5. Corey Davis

6. Sammy Watkins

7. Melvin Gordon

8. Dante Pettis

9. Austin Hooper

About to be on the clock again. Thinking about going after John Brown.

Start considering quarterback if a few have been selected. Round 10 / 11 is generally where I've been looking for Lamar Jackson. If there hasn't been much of a run, you can probably wait more, but if he's there and the other quarterbacks are maybe like Russell Wilson and the like, I'd seriously consider him here. 

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5 minutes ago, Forge said:

Start considering quarterback if a few have been selected. Round 10 / 11 is generally where I've been looking for Lamar Jackson. If there hasn't been much of a run, you can probably wait more, but if he's there and the other quarterbacks are maybe like Russell Wilson and the like, I'd seriously consider him here. 

In Round 10 and Wilson, Ben, and Rivers still on the board... but still need depth at RB

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1 minute ago, Forge said:

You need someone else if you're carrying Rivers as your starter. See my first post on this page

I got Brady in the 14th. This league is a 20 Spot 12 Man PPR $250 League. Grand Prize 250K across all leagues. Should I get a 3rd QB? Was debating Sam Darnold. Or someone mobile?

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Just now, BayRaider said:

I got Brady in the 14th. This league is a 20 Spot 12 Man PPR $250 League. Grand Prize 250K across all leagues. Should I get a 3rd QB? Was debating Sam Darnold. Or someone mobile?

No reason to carry three unless you're blocking a specific opponent the week of in my opinion. I usually don't even carry 2. Rivers just happened to be the exact example I mentioned earlier on when I would 😆😆😆.

Given the bench is so deep, it probably wouldn't hurt you if you wanted to stash a third based on upside

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My PPR 12 Teamer:

QB Philip Rivers (13)

RB David Johnson (1)

RB Joe Mixon (2)

WR Cooper Kupp (4)

WR Corey Davis (5)

FLEX Chris Carson (3)

TE Austin Hooper (9)

DEF Minnesota (18)

K Josh Myers (16)

BENCH:

QB Tom Brady (14)

QB Sam Darnold (20) (I know three QBs is dumb but I like Darnolds playoff schedule)

RB Melvin Gordon (7)

RB TJ Yeldon (15)

RB Mike Boone (19)

WR Sammy Watkins (6)

WR Dante Pettis (8)

WR John Brown (10)

WR DeSean Jackson (11)

WR Parris Campbell (16)

TE Kyle Rudolph (12)

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