Ryan Pace optimistic about Bears' salary cap space

[soulman]

Ryan Pace optimistic about Bears' salary cap space

Alyssa Barbieri

https://bearswire.usatoday.com/2019/09/02/chicago-bears-general-manager-ryan-pace-salary-cap-space/

3 hours ago

For the fourth year in a row, Chicago Bears general manager Ryan Pace rewarded one of his young players with a lucrative contract extension.

This year’s recipient was guard Cody Whitehair, who signed a five-year extension worth $52.5 million and $27.5 million guaranteed to lock up a key part of the Bears’ offensive line.

Before Whitehair, Pace has managed to lock up important players prior to the start of the season, including Akiem Hicks (2017), Charles Leno Jr. (2017),  Eddie Goldman (2018) and trading for Khalil Mack (2018).

The next candidates for those big-money extensions include All-Pro safety Eddie Jackson and running back Tarik Cohen.

Pace believes the Bears are in a good place in regards to the salary cap.

“Very comfortable and I think [negotiator and cap specialist] Joey [Laine] does a great job forecasting out, thinking ahead, thinking about the future, extensions on the horizon, what we want to do in future years,” Pace said, via the Sun-Times. “So we’re in a good place.”

One of the benefits of having a quarterback on a rookie deal is the ability to lock players down for the future. But there will come a time when the Bears will have to pay Mitch Trubisky, which likely won’t be after this season but the following year.

The Bears won’t be able to keep paying everyone forever, which is why thinking ahead is important, as is capitalizing on your Super Bowl window.

[soulman]

Can't disagree that Cohen and Jackson extensions will need to be handled next summer if possible.

I'm less concerned about Tarik because I believe he'll still be paid as a RB despite having Drew Rosenhaus bitching he should be paid as a WR.  In any event he'll be due a nice raise.

Eddie Jackson will cost far more.  I have no doubt he'll become one of the highest paid Safeties in the NFL.

But the elephant in the room that's being ignored here is Leonard Floyd.  While it's true that Pace has him wrapped up under his 5th year option with having to work out new deals for Cohen and Jackson I can't help but thinking he'll want to reduce Floyd's $13.2 mil cap hit.

Some believe we should trade him for picks yet we have no one currently on the roster who has his skills set and if we're honest about it we aren't like to find it in anyone we could draft in the 2nd round either.  Floyd was a top ten pick and we won't get even close to that in trade for him.  So to me this will be one of the more interesting stories to follow next spring far.

[malagabears]

Funny comparison between 2 sites which show 2 completely different pictures:

1. Spotrac shows a spike to 198M (10M) and the team with 19M of space.

2. Overthecap shows us with 1.6M of space on 197M total contracts. Something is off.

Anyway some likely CAP casualties:

Prince A, resign Danny T cheaper, Mike Davis, & Tyler Gabriel gives you about 15.5M is CAP space.

[soulman]

Can't help but believe Pace would not go into the season with only $1.6 mil of cap available.

One issue that's bound to come up somewhere along the line is players realizing they can't all "break the bank" and still keep the talent level as it is.  There must be some give on their parts in order to do that.

So I'll not only applaud Pace and Laine but Leno, Massie, Long, and Whitehair as well all of whom agreed to very team friendly deals that has allowed the team to keep that OL intact this year and next as is.

Let's hope this sets a precedent as others turns come up.

Edited September 3, 2019 by soulman

[Sugashane]

10 hours ago, malagabears said:

Funny comparison between 2 sites which show 2 completely different pictures:

1. Spotrac shows a spike to 198M (10M) and the team with 19M of space.

2. Overthecap shows us with 1.6M of space on 197M total contracts. Something is off.

Anyway some likely CAP casualties:

Prince A, resign Danny T cheaper, Mike Davis, & Tyler Gabriel gives you about 15.5M is CAP space.

If Long cannot stay healthy you also look at saving $8.5 mil by cutting him. Either Bars or Coward should be able to step in. While a downgrade they might end up playing some significant time if Long's health still keeps breaking down. Then you return 4 of 5 starters and can invest a more premium pick to OL for a potential OT too.

[AZBearsFan]

People talk about the potential cap issues in the coming years like there aren’t multiple legitimate plans in place on Pace’s part. I think that’s incredibly naive. I think there are two paths to this - one where Mitch regresses and doesn’t pan out (in which we can afford to essentially keep everyone else) and another where he gets a massive extension and we then have sub tiers prioritizing the other guys we have to keep vs. those we want to keep. 

Look at the guys we are looking to have to potentially cut next year for cap purposes and then look where we have added young players. Ridley and Miller and Wims behind Gabriel, to a lesser extent Cohen as a receiver, and potentially ARob. Bars behind Long. A bunch of developmental bigger corners in Toliver, Denmark and Joseph behind Prince. Shelley behind Skrine. Iggy drafted behind Trevathan. Not all of that is going to pan out to plan because development isn’t linear and talent evaluation isn’t perfect, but none of that is an accident. I also think that shows a reasonable road map for where Pace is seeing the want to keep guys vs. the have to keep guys in the Mitch extension scenario. Hell even look at how we handled the kicking situation. Pace made sure it was no secret the other day that finding a long term fix was a priority in the process. Not only does that mean stability but also cost certainty at a low number. The $4M difference between Pineiro or some other rookie who could have won the job and Gould or some other vet we didn’t end up with this offseason is likely going to matter once these second contracts start to hit, and may be the difference between having or not having to move on from someone like Gabriel or Prince next offseason. 

[beardown3231]

20 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

People talk about the potential cap issues in the coming years like there aren’t multiple legitimate plans in place on Pace’s part. I think that’s incredibly naive. I think there are two paths to this - one where Mitch regresses and doesn’t pan out (in which we can afford to essentially keep everyone else) and another where he gets a massive extension and we then have sub tiers prioritizing the other guys we have to keep vs. those we want to keep. 

Look at the guys we are looking to have to potentially cut next year for cap purposes and then look where we have added young players. Ridley and Miller and Wims behind Gabriel, to a lesser extent Cohen as a receiver, and potentially ARob. Bars behind Long. A bunch of developmental bigger corners in Toliver, Denmark and Joseph behind Prince. Shelley behind Skrine. Iggy drafted behind Trevathan. Not all of that is going to pan out to plan because development isn’t linear and talent evaluation isn’t perfect, but none of that is an accident. I also think that shows a reasonable road map for where Pace is seeing the want to keep guys vs. the have to keep guys in the Mitch extension scenario. Hell even look at how we handled the kicking situation. Pace made sure it was no secret the other day that finding a long term fix was a priority in the process. Not only does that mean stability but also cost certainty at a low number. The $4M difference between Pineiro or some other rookie who could have won the job and Gould or some other vet we didn’t end up with this offseason is likely going to matter once these second contracts start to hit, and may be the difference between having or not having to move on from someone like Gabriel or Prince next offseason. 

You could've just stopped there. That's it right there. Either Trubisky progresses and they pay him but must deal with the casualties or he doesn't and all they need is a QB. It's that easy, and honestly, I hope they do have to pay him because that means he turned into a stud. Furthermore, cap issues suck but that's why the window must be capitalized on. Look at the Blackhawks now. Are they fun anymore? Not really. Was it fun when they had to trade Hjalmarsson and had to trade guys like Brouwer and Byfuglien? No. But they won 3 cups. If the Bears win 3 (or **** even one) I'd be stoked and this will have been worth it. I'd gladly take a Seattle-run where the worst they've finished since September 2012 is 9-7 and in that time won a championship and had another SB appearance.

[JAF-N72EX]

Being concerned with the cap space any further than Mitch's rookie contract (2020) is pointless right now because the roster is being built strictly around him and 24 notable players out of 26 are already signed for the length of his contract or beyond-- with 9 of them still being under rookie contracts themselves, including Jackson. There are only 5 players who are not already signed over the same time span of Mitch's rookie contract. Most of which  

This is what our current roster looks like for next off-season (notable players mentioned only). Notice how most contracts are built around Mitch's contract? 16 of those 24 players' contract ends the very same year or a 1 year later than Mitch's does.

QB: Mitch --Signed thru 2020 (Rookie contract)
RB: Montgomery -- signed thru 2022 (Rookie contract)
RB: Cohen -- ???
TE: Burton --signed thru 2021
TE: Sheheen --Signed thru 2020 (Rookie contract)
TE: Braunecker -- Signed thru 2020
WR: Robinson -- Signed thru 2020
WR: Miller -- Signed thru 2021 (Rookie contract)
WR: Gabriel -- Signed thru 2021
WR: Wims -- Signed thru 2021 (Rookie contract)
WR: Ridley -- Signed thru 2022 (Rookie contract)
ST: Patterson -- Signed thru 2020
LT: Leno -- Signed thru 2023
LG/C: Whitehair -- Signed thru 2025
C/G: Daniels -- Signed thru 2021 (Rookie contract)
RG: Long -- Signed thru 2020
RT: Massie -- Signed thru 2023
DL: Hicks -- Signed thru 2021
DL: Goldman -- Signed thru 2022
DL: Nichols -- Singed thru 2021 (Rookie contract)
DL: RBH -- ???(RE/RFA)
OLB: Mack -- Signed thru 2024
OLB: Floyd -- ??? (Rookie contract)
ILB: Smith -- Signed thru 2021
ILB: Trevathan -- ???
OCB: Fuller -- Signed thru 2021
OCB: Prince -- Signed thru 2020
INB: Skrine -- Signed thru 2023
SS: HHCD -- ???
SS: Bush -- ???
FS: Jackson -- Signed thru 2020 (Rookie contract)

This is why I don't really care right now, to be perfectly honest with you. Simply because if Mitch don't work out then we're most likely starting from scratch again in 2 years anyhow and Pace has already already paid big money to keep most of the core players. So the few other contracts that are left to deal with during that time frame mean little to me. Pace took a risk to win a SB by building a team surrounded by Mitch while he was still in the 2nd year of his rookie contract --a risk I VERY much appreciate as fan BTW whether it works out or not-- so now it's up to Mitch to do his part on the field and PAce's part to make the right decisions when the time is right in order to deliver a title. 

This is a big year in terms of both cap space and the future of this team moving forward---and it all starts with Mitch (player wise). As it is with all QB's, if you sign a QB to a long-term deal then not only are you investing the largest % of your entire cap space over the time span of said contract but you're forced to build around said QB long-term. Whether he regresses or not. The NFL is a business, first and foremost. It's a big risk, especially with rookie contracts set in place like they are since the last CBA.

That said, Mitch needs to show everyone THIS YEAR that he is beyond a shadow of a doubt the type of QB we can win the Super Bowl with and not just another average QB that you can find in any draft. 

If it's the latter, then we should start strongly considering putting him on a trade block next year, while his value is at the highest and recoup a bit of what we "lost" in the trade, while our core group of players surrounding the QB position are still under contract and intact. 

And it's not out of the realm of possibility that Nagy isn't seeing it this way either beings that Mitch was Pace's QB pick and not his very own -- he just simply chose to work with it. He could very well see that Mitch isn't a fit and pitch the idea of "hey, Mitch isn't the guy so let's trade him and use the draft in 2020 to pick up better QB that is under another rookie contract for 4 years instead of paying him top dollar and relying on him for another 5 years". Just a thought.

Bottomline. This the TRUE "prove it" year for Mitch. He has a good OL that is coached by one of the best OL coaches in the game. He now has two full off-seasons under his belt with one of the best head coaches/offensive coordinators in the game. A solid and versatile group of targets at WR/TE(save for a true #1 WR) and what should be a solid run game. No more excuses. It's his time to shine and prove his true worth. 

Tl;dr, Pace/Nagy have taking a bottom feeder team, who had no hope in sight, to being one of the best and youngest rosters in the NFL with hopes of winning a SB while Trubisky is still in his rookie contract and did so in just one year by taking chances and going all-in in order to achieve this goal. If Mitch doesn't work out then the cap space situation doesn't matter much at all because unless they pull the string on Mitch earlier enough, if need be, then we're blowing it all up in 2021-2022 anyhow.
 

[WindyCity]

I am working on a longer breakdown, but the Bears have avenues to create space,

Release

OG Kyle Long 8.1 million

CB Prince Amukamara 8 million

WR Cordrelle Patterson 5.2 million

RB Mike Davis 3 million

WR Taylor Gabriel 4.5 million

Extend 

Allen Robinson

Restructure

Khalil Mack

[abstract_thought]

The Bears are at the same divergence point as most good teams with young QBs:

If Trubisky plays well and earns an extension, they follow the Seahawks model and try to hold onto as many key pieces as possible while hoping that Mitch continues to develop and becomes a guy who can elevate lesser teams to contention.

If he plays poorly, they move on and either decide to rebuild or to follow the Broncos model of chasing stop-gap QBs while the talent level of the team is still Super Bowl caliber.

[WindyCity]

Keeping the core guys does not worry me.

Jackson, Floyd, Cohen, Robinson you can extend and keep the cap hits pretty low in 2020 and wait for the new CBA and the money jump.

Trubisky is a wild card.

 

Where the Bears are going to have to draft well and coach well is to replace guys like Trevatha, RRH, Bush. 

[soulman]

3 hours ago, Sugashane said:

If Long cannot stay healthy you also look at saving $8.5 mil by cutting him. Either Bars or Coward should be able to step in. While a downgrade they might end up playing some significant time if Long's health still keeps breaking down. Then you return 4 of 5 starters and can invest a more premium pick to OL for a potential OT too.

His health and his ability to perform at a Pro Bowl level again will be the key to his return.  If he does then we have a bargain on our hands because the AAV of that restructure he agreed to is only $6.1 mil a year making him the Bears lowest paid vet OL.

[soulman]

3 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

People talk about the potential cap issues in the coming years like there aren’t multiple legitimate plans in place on Pace’s part. I think that’s incredibly naive.

 

3 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

Being concerned with the cap space any further than Mitch's rookie contract (2020) is pointless right now because the roster is being built strictly around him and 24 notable players out of 26 are already signed for the length of his contract or beyond

This kind of recognition is why I really don't know why some are wringing their hands in worry over the cap.

Some of the same people were worried about it even this year and yet Pace and Laine created more space now to deal with their plan, not less.  So to think the same can't also be done as we move forward IS naive and Pace is as much as telling us so.

We're also looking at a new CBA beginning in 2021when if Mitch has proven to be "the guy" his big money will begin and the same will be true of quite a few other current core guys.  Others will be replaced by rookies on lesser cost deals and in many cases even some of the big money contracts only increase incrementally each year so maybe only a couple mil in cap cost or less.

No one can know for certain exactly what kind of deal the next CBA will bring but it would be foolish to believe that it won't create at least some expansion of the cap in addition to what has been averaging around a 6% annual increase under the current CBA.  I'm 100% certain this is all part of Pace's and Laine's projections and they would have a much better handle on that than we can ever hope to.

As it stands we're already looking at a $200 mil cap in 2020, an increase of $12 mil over 2019.  If we also assume some carry forward from our 2019 cap excess we're not in cap hell at all.  Not even close if that $19.9 mil number Spotrac has is anywhere near accurate and again the big money for extensions to some won't have to hit until 2021 if we choose to structure deals that way.

Just a very raw guess based on a 1% increase in the player allocation of the CBA would push the 2021 cap over $220 mil alone.

IMHO Pace and Laine will not allow themselves to be painted into a corner cap wise. Pace has already proven to be far to aggressive a deal maker for that to happen.  So.....trust in Pace and Laine and trust in the process.

Edited September 3, 2019 by soulman

[Sugashane]

4 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

TE: Sheheen --Signed thru 2020 (Rookie contract)

I loved the post, but I love the Freudian slip even more. lmao

[soulman]

Goff gets his extension so we can reference this as far as Mitch goes if and when it happens.

AAV about $32 mil.