Jump to content
AlNFL19

2019 Draft - Statistical Big Board / Draft Review

Recommended Posts

Just in time for the start of the regular season, so only a few months late, I've completed a statistical big board of the FBS prospects drafted in Rounds 1-3 of this past year's draft. With it, I've compiled a sort of draft review. Anyone who has seen my positional rankings threads should understand this, but if not here's a link to one of them:

 

Anyways, here's the board:

2019 NFL Draft - Statistical Big Board
Overall Rank Player Position College Projected AV Bust Chance PB Chance
1 Q. Williams DT Alabama 6.23 <1.00% 33.23%
2 K. Murray QB Oklahoma 7.33 25.72% 64.22%
3 D. White LB LSU 7.35 1.38% 30.06%
4 D. Bush LB Michigan 7.03 9.64% 26.70%
5 G. Bradbury C NC State 6.1 6.12% 25.92%
6 C. Lindstrom G Boston College 6.08 6.76% 25.58%
7 E. Oliver DT Houston 5.52 21.15% 23.91%
8 M. Sweat DE Mississippi State 5.38 23.32% 31.89%
9 R. Gary OLB Michigan 5.33 25.54% 30.42%
10 A. Dillard OT Washington State 6.04 27.42% 22.33%
11 B. Banogu OLB TCU 5.21 30.85% 26.90%
12 A. Isabella WR Massachusetts 5.26 32.63% 14.23%
13 T. Howard OT Alabama State 5.86 31.58% 19.11%
14 K. McGary OT Washington 5.84 32.04% 18.75%
15 D. Haskins QB Ohio State 5.49 54.33% 36.88%
16 B. Burns DE Florida State 5.11 35.28% 23.97%
17 J. Simmons DT Mississippi State 5.01 36.69% 17.22%
18 E. Jenkins C Mississippi State 5.44 27.25% 14.63%
19 J. Williams OT Alabama 5.83 32.27% 18.57%
20 N. Fant TE Iowa 4.5 29.32% 14.79%
21 C. Wilkins DT Clemson 4.99 37.30% 16.96%
22 D. Jones QB Duke 5.29 57.45% 33.90%
23 D. Savage Jr. FS Maryland 4.77 40.44% 11.84%
24 M. Brown WR Oklahoma 4.78 43.36% 11.77%
25 J. Tillery DT Notre Dame 4.66 47.35% 12.63%
26 D. Henderson RB Memphis 4.89 50.95% 16.25%
27 D. Lock QB Missouri 4.99 62.19% 29.37%
28 J. Allen OLB Kentucky 4.85 53.00% 12.23%
29 J. Abrams SS Mississippi State 4.65 44.97% 7.61%
30 J.J. Arcega-Whiteside WR Stanford 4.35 52.98% 9.57%
31 N. Harry WR Arizona State 4.35 52.98% 9.57%
32 N. Bosa DE Ohio State 4.71 53.00% 12.23%
33 J. Tavai LB Hawaii 5.35 52.98% 9.02%
34 C. Ford OT Oklahoma 5.21 46.61% 7.49%
35 M. Sanders RB Penn State 4.74 55.81% 13.66%
36 E. McCoy C Texas A&M 4.88 45.18% 5.04%
37 G. Little OT Mississippi 5.13 48.46% 6.06%
38 G. Pratt LB N.C. State 5.23 56.07% 7.75%
39 J. Thornhill FS Virginia 4.19 58.18% 6.34%
40 P. Campbell WR Ohio State 4.18 56.78% 8.70%
41 L.J. Collier DE TCU 4.58 58.76% 8.42%
42 D. Risner OT Kansas State 5.09 49.38% 5.34%
43 J. Jacobs RB Alabama 4.62 59.69% 11.58%
44 I. Smith Jr. TE Alabama 3.56 63.98% 7.96%
45 T.J. Hockenson TE Iowa 3.56 63.98% 7.96%
46 S. Bunting CB Central Michigan 3.43 60.24% 5.71%
47 Z. Allen DE Boston College 4.54 60.53% 7.25%
48 S. Takitaki LB BYU 5.14 58.39% 6.81%
49 A.J. Brown WR Mississippi 4.03 60.13% 7.93%
50 C. Winovich DE Michigan 4.52 61.42% 6.66%
51 D. Lawrence DT Clemson 4.21 61.06% 6.73%
52 C. McGovern G Penn State 4.72 50.30% 2.30%
53 M. Scharping OT Northern Illinois 4.97 52.15% 3.20%
54 J. Oliver TE San Jose State 3.46 67.66% 7.23%
55 D. Samuel WR South Carolina 3.93 62.37% 7.42%
56 J. Taylor OT Florida 4.92 53.31% 2.30%
57 M. Deiter G Wisconsin 4.67 51.90% 1.45%
58 L. Johnson Jr. CB Kentucky 3.31 64.64% 4.46%
59 T. Pipkins OT Sioux Falls 4.89 54.00% 1.77%
60 D. Knox TE Mississippi 3.38 70.61% 6.65%
61 T. Mullen CB Clemson 3.26 66.47% 3.93%
62 J. Dean CB Auburn 3.25 66.84% 3.83%
63 D. Jones DT Ohio State 4.04 66.24% 4.50%
64 M. Blair SS Utah 4.19 59.46% <1.00%
65 C. Barton LB Utah 4.81 66.91% 3.33%
66 D. Baker CB Georgia 3.19 69.03% 3.21%
67 K. Warring TE San Diego State 3.24 75.77% 5.63%
68 R. Ya-Sin CB Temple 3.19 69.03% 3.21%
69 B. Okereke LB Stanford 4.77 67.94% 2.91%
70 T. Hill DT UCF 3.97 68.37% 3.58%
71 W. Harris SS Boston College 4.08 62.93% <1.00%
72 N. Davis G Charlotte 4.36 61.82% <1.00%
73 G. Williams CB LSU 3.1 72.33% 2.27%
74 J. Ferguson DE Louisiana Tech 4.28 72.05% <1.00%
75 J. Sternberger TE Texas A&M 3.08 81.67% 4.47%
76 C. Edoga OT USC 4.46 63.94% <1.00%
77 O. Ximines DE Old Dominion 4.25 73.37% <1.00%
78 T. Rapp SS Washington 4.01 65.13% <1.00%
79 M. Boykin WR Notre Dame 3.4 74.22% 4.70%
80 B. Evans OT Oklahoma 4.44 64.41% <1.00%
81 J. Williams CB Vanderbilt 3 75.99% 1.23%
82 D. Sample TE Washington 3.02 83.89% 4.03%
83 B. Murphy CB Washington 2.99 76.36% 1.12%
84 D. Johnson WR Toledo 3.31 76.24% 4.24%
85 J. Hurd WR Baylor 3.2 78.70% 3.68%
86 Y. Cajuste OT West Virginia 4.25 68.80% <1.00%
87 M. Edwards SS Kentucky 3.83 70.80% <1.00%
88 C. Ferrell DE Clemson 4.05 82.23% <1.00%
89 D. Montgomery RB Iowa State 3.89 83.33% <1.00%
90 M. Hardman WR Georgia 3.06 81.83% 2.96%
91 D. Long CB Michigan 2.81 82.95% <1.00%
92 D. Harris RB Alabama 3.76 87.54% <1.00%
93 J. Polite OLB Florida 3.86 90.65% <1.00%
94 T. McLaurin WR Ohio State 2.93 84.73% 2.30%
95 D. Singletary RB Florida Atlantic 3.57 93.69% <1.00%
96 W. Grier QB West Virginia 3.08 91.86% 1.02%
97 J. Layne CB Michigan State 2.56 92.11% <1.00%
98 D.K. Metcalf WR Mississippi 2.36 97.48% <1.00%
99 A. Mattison RB Boise State 3.37 >99.9% <1.00%

You'll notice the rankings aren't based on any one of these but rather a combination of the rankings and of those of how well they performed with respect to the positional average projected AV.

There's plenty to note here, from Quinnen Williams' insane bust chance to Andy Isabella's Top-20 ranking to D.K. Metcalf's very low rating. If you have anything you want me to explain or address, ask away!

And in more of a draft-focused look, here's some data on team draft performance.

This table shows each team's Total AV+/-, or the difference between the projected AV of their draft picks and the expected AV of players drafted with the spots used by the team (for example, Arizona's draft picks are projected to total 0.37 AV more than that expected of a group made up of any draft's 1st, 33rd, 62nd, and 65th selections).

Team Total AV+/-
Arizona 0.37
Atlanta 0.66
Baltimore 0.68
Buffalo -0.08
Carolina -0.43
Chicago 0.28
Cincinnati -0.11
Cleveland 0.27
Dallas 1.46
Denver -0.31
Detroit -1.46
Green Bay -1.43
Houston 0.08
Indianapolis 0.59
Jacksonville -1.98
Kansas City -0.88
Los Angeles (AFC)
1.12
Los Angeles (NFC)
2.07
Miami 0.1
Minnesota -0.03
New England 0.59
New Orleans 0.39
New York (AFC) 1.06
New York (NFC) -3.68
Oakland -5.78
Philadelphia 1.04
Pittsburgh -0.52
San Francisco -3.68
Seattle -0.98
Tampa Bay 0.56
Tennessee -0.11
Washington -1.17

And finally, some superlatives:

Best Selection by Big Board Value: Andy Isabella, WR, UMass - Selected 62nd overall by the Arizona Cardinals and ranked 12th on this board for a net of +50

Worst Selection by Big Board Value: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson - Selected 4th overall by the Oakland Raiders and ranked 88th on this board for a net of -84

Ask anything if you want, or just observe.
.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Props for all the work you put into this.

You must have really hated McClaurin, who is now projected to be our starting X WR.  Any particular reason why?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Props for all the work you put into this.

You must have really hated McClaurin, who is now projected to be our starting X WR.  Any particular reason why?  

Thanks, this did take a while.

For Terry McLaurin:

It all just comes down to the fact that his production at Ohio State wasn't very good. First of all, his draft position was 76th, which is obviously not a great indicator of future success. Then let's look at his stats, taking an example from just his final season at OSU:

  • Receiving Yards: 701. Obviously, that's not the type of total you want to see from a future stud wide receiver. Anything less than 1,000, as one arbitrary benchmark, isn't very good. 701 projects out to 3.11 AV as a stand-alone.
  • Receiving TDs: 11. That's actually a solid number, it just got washed out by everything else.
  • Receptions: 35. Again, not good at all. 90 receptions is the target line for 5.0+ projections. 35 is a very subpar number, hitting just about half of a 5.0 projection (2.60). 
  • Yards / Team Attempts per Game: 17.53. Again, bad. You want to shoot for 40+ for a 5.0 projection. A big part of his poor projection is that he only put up mediocre stats, despite Ohio State's astounding 40 attempts per game. 40! 
  • Touchdowns / Team Attempts per Game: 0.28. This is where the touchdown figure doesn't look so good, because sure he caught 11 of them, but Ohio State threw the ball 40 times a game. That's a lot. 
  • Receptions / Team Attempts per Game: 0.88. Horrible. Barely projects out to above 1.0 AV. McLaurin's stats, especially in his last year, were nothing special for an offense where they should've been had he warranted a better projection.

Obviously, statistics aren't going to always be right, but in the case of McLaurin, he really didn't show much potential with what he put up on the stat sheet in college. I hope he outperforms that projection, though, because my fantasy team will need him.

Hope this answers your question.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

Thanks, this did take a while.

For Terry McLaurin:

It all just comes down to the fact that his production at Ohio State wasn't very good. First of all, his draft position was 76th, which is obviously not a great indicator of future success. Then let's look at his stats, taking an example from just his final season at OSU:

  • Receiving Yards: 701. Obviously, that's not the type of total you want to see from a future stud wide receiver. Anything less than 1,000, as one arbitrary benchmark, isn't very good. 701 projects out to 3.11 AV as a stand-alone.
  • Receiving TDs: 11. That's actually a solid number, it just got washed out by everything else.
  • Receptions: 35. Again, not good at all. 90 receptions is the target line for 5.0+ projections. 35 is a very subpar number, hitting just about half of a 5.0 projection (2.60). 
  • Yards / Team Attempts per Game: 17.53. Again, bad. You want to shoot for 40+ for a 5.0 projection. A big part of his poor projection is that he only put up mediocre stats, despite Ohio State's astounding 40 attempts per game. 40! 
  • Touchdowns / Team Attempts per Game: 0.28. This is where the touchdown figure doesn't look so good, because sure he caught 11 of them, but Ohio State threw the ball 40 times a game. That's a lot. 
  • Receptions / Team Attempts per Game: 0.88. Horrible. Barely projects out to above 1.0 AV. McLaurin's stats, especially in his last year, were nothing special for an offense where they should've been had he warranted a better projection.

Obviously, statistics aren't going to always be right, but in the case of McLaurin, he really didn't show much potential with what he put up on the stat sheet in college. I hope he outperforms that projection, though, because my fantasy team will need him.

Hope this answers your question.

Appreciate the thorough response.

I can only hope competing with all the other weapons around him was the biggest reason for his lack of bulk stats.  He and Haskins did have the second highest passer rating connection in the nation, so it's good to know that connection will continue in the pros.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

It all just comes down to the fact that his production at Ohio State wasn't very good.

How many passes did he drop?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, TVScout said:

How many passes did he drop?

Probably not many, but I’m not sure. Drops aren’t a stat that goes into the WR projections and are hard to find for collegiate players. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Using the same method as this year's big board, here's a ranked list of the player who finished with the No. 1 projection at his position from 2006 to 2019 in the draft (obviously, most of these come from the initial samples, so they shouldn't be read into too much in terms of predictive capability).

Overall Rank Player Position College Projected AV Bust Chance PB Chance
1 A. Donald DT Pittsburgh 6.89 <1.00% 41.88%
2 R. Shazier LB Ohio State 7.6 <1.00% 32.70%
3 K. Murray QB Oklahoma 7.33 25.72% 64.22%
4 D. Bryant WR Oklahoma St. 6.67 1.09% 21.45%
5 R. Bush RB USC 6.51 <1.00% 44.28%
6 Q. Nelson IOL Notre Dame 6.39 <1.00% 30.89%
7 L. Johnson OT Oklahoma 6.86 8.46% 36.99%
8 K. Mack EDGE Buffalo 5.79 5.16% 43.91%
9 E. Thomas FS Texas 5.64 13.83% 20.10%
10 P. Peterson CB LSU 4.73 12.63% 19.25%
11 V. Davis TE Maryland 4.75 20.11% 16.61%
12 E. Berry SS Tennessee 4.8 40.25% 10.38%

My big takeaways from this:

  • Donald is the best prospect of the last 15 years in retrospect (duh)
  • Shazier has the highest AV projection (7.60) of any player since 2006
  • Yes, Kyler Murray is QB1 since 2006, with Mariota (averaged 10.5 AV in years 3-4) and Mayfield (looking good to start - he had 10 AV last year) in his rear-view mirror. My QB model has quite a bit riding on his success in the NFL level, or it might be back to the drawing board with that one.
  • Quenton Nelson is the other recent draftee to top his position. No surprise there.
  • Bryant narrowly beats out Demaryius Thomas (6.65 AV) for the No. 1 WR spot on account of very good production from an efficiency and volume perspective
  • Lane Johnson a bit of a surprise position-topper (unless you ask an Eagles fan)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

Probably not many, but I’m not sure. Drops aren’t a stat that goes into the WR projections and are hard to find for collegiate players. 

Stats are hard to find but game tape isn't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, TVScout said:

Stats are hard to find but game tape isn't.

And your point is?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

And your point is?

Watch tape and create your own stats.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, TVScout said:

Watch tape and create your own stats.

I’m not going to watch the tape of every wideout drafted in the first three rounds since 2006 to see how many passes they dropped. That would take forever, and I guarantee a large sample of games wouldn’t be anywhere I could find them with that many in total, so nothing I’d find would be reliable enough, let alone thereby significant enough, to draw conclusions based on them for future prospects (which is the whole point of this).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/7/2019 at 8:26 AM, AlNFL19 said:

I’m not going to watch the tape of every wideout drafted in the first three rounds since 2006

You don't need to go back even half that far. You don't need to research that many players. Just research two groups:

1) Recent pro bowl WRs

2)  WRs who were drafted in the first and second and maybe third rounds over the past three or four years but busted out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, TVScout said:

You don't need to go back even half that far. You don't need to research that many players. Just research two groups:

1) Recent pro bowl WRs

2)  WRs who were drafted in the first and second and maybe third rounds over the past three or four years but busted out.

That's not the point.

Every one of these models is built on the statistics of players drafted from 2006 to 2015 in the first three rounds. Studying drops in terms of only those groups would not only not conform to this standard, but it wouldn't present enough data to actually have significant results (I mean, really, that's like a total of 35-40 guys. Is that really enough?). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

I mean, really, that's like a total of 35-40 guys. Is that really enough?

The number of players is closer to 60 or 70.  5 per round times 3 rounds times 4 years plus the number of WRs who have gone to the PB. 

There are two criteria that are most important:

1) Ability to catch the ball.

2) Separation in route running.

 

These qualities are timeless. You don't need to go back a decade. We are talking about the 2020 Draft and it is only required to do in depth scouting of those prospects and compare them to recent PBers to draw conclusions.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now



×