Season Predictions

[AnAngryAmerican]

2 hours ago, broncos67 said:

For the record, I could see us being 10-6 at best. The schedule, particularly the division, is just too good. We have a marginal at best DL, and unless Gotsis learns how to play football, we're in some trouble there. If Siemian takes a leap I'll feel a little better, but I think this team needs to reload a little bit before they're a major contender again.

I think we can be anywhere between 6-10 and 10-6. There are a lot of question marks in the trenches and I don't know what to expect from a rookie HC and rookie DC. I think tonight will give us a good idea of where we are. The Chargers are good, but not great, team. If Gordon runs all over us and/or our OTs get blown up by the Ingram and Bosa we will know it's going to be a rough year. If, on the other hand, we handle things well I'll have a more positive outlook. 

[broncos67]

Honestly, this is what happens when you draft so dreadfully for many years. Denver did something rare- built a competitive team in the free agency era using mostly free agents. That doesn't happen often and there's a reason. You literally have to hit on 90+% of free agents and have favorable contracts. We managed to accomplish that which is a testament to Elway and team, but their lack of draft prowess, or being able to keep drafted players, is really biting us right now.

Miller, Wolfe, Harris and...??? who else is there?

I think Denver is good enough to make a wild card at best. The drafting needs to seriously improve, and Elway's individual player targeting philosophy is the absolute wrong way to do it.

[champ11]

10 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

Honestly, this is what happens when you draft so dreadfully for many years. Denver did something rare- built a competitive team in the free agency era using mostly free agents. That doesn't happen often and there's a reason. You literally have to hit on 90+% of free agents and have favorable contracts. We managed to accomplish that which is a testament to Elway and team, but their lack of draft prowess, or being able to keep drafted players, is really biting us right now.

Miller, Wolfe, Harris and...??? who else is there?

I think Denver is good enough to make a wild card at best. The drafting needs to seriously improve, and Elway's individual player targeting philosophy is the absolute wrong way to do it.

I'm kinda bummed that we most likely don't have any young studs to get excited about. I was hoping Henderson would be that guy. 

[iLikeDefense]

18 minutes ago, champ11 said:

I'm kinda bummed that we most likely don't have any young studs to get excited about. I was hoping Henderson would be that guy. 

I wouldn't call them studs but I am excited to see Bolles, Henderson, Gostis, Siemian, Simmons, Parks, Carter play.

[BroncoBruin]

Langley, Simmons, Parks and Carter all excite me. Man it's unbelievable how great this team is at finding defensive backs relative to every other position group...

[Broncofan]

50 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

Honestly, this is what happens when you draft so dreadfully for many years. Denver did something rare- built a competitive team in the free agency era using mostly free agents. That doesn't happen often and there's a reason. You literally have to hit on 90+% of free agents and have favorable contracts. We managed to accomplish that which is a testament to Elway and team, but their lack of draft prowess, or being able to keep drafted players, is really biting us right now.

Miller, Wolfe, Harris and...??? who else is there?

I think Denver is good enough to make a wild card at best. The drafting needs to seriously improve, and Elway's individual player targeting philosophy is the absolute wrong way to do it.

 

39 minutes ago, champ11 said:

I'm kinda bummed that we most likely don't have any young studs to get excited about. I was hoping Henderson would be that guy. 

It's really a huge problem.   I touched on this in the offseason about Elway's habit of locking in to some guys.  And ignoring the way the board is falling.  

Ironically when he was tasked with rebuilding a bad team, he just went BPA.   And that's when he had the greatest success.   He still encounters a lot of late round success because by then, the odds of success are so low you might as well take "your guy".   There's no real issue with that approach.  But it's when you over-reach for "your guy" because of a misguided fear some other org will get that one person...well that's the road to tears and wasted picks.   People point to Adam Gotsis and some still swear a team out there was thinking of taking him in the 3rd - so Elway had to go in the 2nd.   Hindsight is 20-20, but if someone wants a guy that badly, then move on to plan B where better value lies.  It's what orgs like SEA, GB, and yes, NE do.    Taking your guy 1-2 rounds early is not the approach that wins in the long run.   Moving up to get a guy that's falling for non-football reasons, that's worked great - but in that case, it involves getting a guy who shouldn't be falling based on football evaluation - those are the picks that end up as great values looking back (Ray, Roby).   Frankly, Reuben Foster was exactly that type of pick (more on that).

Elway's still a great UDFA/Day 3 GM...but man, his draft approach about taking need over big board BPA, and locking in to "his guy" - it's been our downfall in Day 2.   What's new is that Rd1 has been pretty safe, other than Sly Williams (which ironically, was a need pick, probably first time he went need over BPA) - but now we're seeing more issues there, too, and that's a killer (Rds 1-3 are where we should be restocking our roster depth at a 50+ percent clip combined, if not higher).     I can't argue with the notion that as we became contenders, going need over true BPA could be justified - but with the salary cap, every position except QB cycles into being a need within 2-3 years.   I don't have a problem with taking guys like Henderson or Gotsis - but Elway's been reaching 1-2 rounds early on these guys to ensure he doesn't get sniped - to which orgs like NE/SEA basically take the approach that if the guy isn't at proper value, they'll look elsewhere.  In the long run, the most successful draft orgs do this.  Elway took this approach when we were rebuilding and in our first years post-Manning - it's really been since 2014-15 that he became this need-first GM on Day 1-2, and started locking in to guys 1-2 rds earlier than anyone else has those guys going.  And the track record hasn't been kind to him since Elway's started to do both need/locking in, he's not been nearly as good early on as a result.

The fact we didn't take Reuben Foster at 1.20 is still a sore spot when he was projected to be a top 10 pick pre-Combine silliness and an unfounded concern on his shoulder (and before he got hurt  with an ankle sprain yesterday, Foster has been showing exactly why he was seen as a top 10 prospect even as a ILB in a huge way this preseason, and even in only 2Q's vs. CAR, really showed the animal ILB instincts and play - if he's not out for long, Foster is a big candidate to be the DROY).  Now I know we needed LT, but again, that was also on getting Andrew Whitworth in FA (who really solidified LAR and Goff yesterday).    Hopefully Bolles works out.   But if he doesn't, I'd hope Elway takes a long hard look at the team holes we have now, and realize going back to a SEA/NE value-based approach where they don't lock into a guy, and don't account for how the board is falling, at least for Day 1-2, and realize that's the area he needs to change.   Elway's changed stripes before - from rebuilder to contender, from O-first to D-first, so hopefully he'll see as he looks back at his draft record and take note.  

[champ11]

7 minutes ago, iLikeDefense said:

I wouldn't call them studs but I am excited to see Bolles, Henderson, Gostis, Siemian, Simmons, Parks, Carter play.

I want a Kareem Hunt!!!!!

[iLikeDefense]

9 minutes ago, champ11 said:

I want a Kareem Hunt!!!!!

I mean, John Dorsey is still out there. Get him Elway, get him!

[broncofan48]

8 minutes ago, iLikeDefense said:

I mean, John Dorsey is still out there. Get him Elway, get him!

I know he has drinking issues and maybe that wouldn't mesh well but Scot Mccloughan is supposed to be an elite talent evaluator too

[BroncoBruin]

They really do need to bring someone in from another organization and that would be the case regardless of our draft success (or lack thereof) IMO. You need fresh perspectives and ideas in a front office so you can evolve with the game. Things move so quickly in the football world with strategy and counter-strategy, having the same voices in a room to pat each other on the back for the same ideas they had six years ago is dangerous. The rare exceptions to this are the organizations who built a culture over the long haul. Green Bay, New England, Baltimore. This is a solid and well-run franchise but the culture is not equivalent to any of these. And it might do some good to bring someone in from an organization like the Packers.

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

I know he has drinking issues and maybe that wouldn't mesh well but Scot Mccloughan is supposed to be an elite talent evaluator too

I like his body of work, but he has an unhealthy obsession with Matt Jones lol (he's been an outstanding talent evaluator otherwise we're all entitled to those unreasonable mancrushes).

https://twitter.com/MccloughanScot/status/895472010712670210

 

[BroncoBruin]

Just now, Broncofan said:

I like his body of work, but he has an unhealthy obsession with Matt Jones lol.

https://twitter.com/MccloughanScot/status/895472010712670210

 

All ego there.

McCloughan would be an amazing pickup as an off-site talent scout. Let him hole up in his house and watch film all day and that's a homerun. Putting him in the building with hard drinkers like Elway and Russell? Yikes.

[Broncofan]

9 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

All ego there.

McCloughan would be an amazing pickup as an off-site talent scout. Let him hole up in his house and watch film all day and that's a homerun. Putting him in the building with hard drinkers like Elway and Russell? Yikes.

Yeah it's hard to let go of guys you believe in.  I always said myself that Montee Ball was a wasted pick from the moment the pick was announced, and that we should have gone Eddie Lacy or Christine Michael.  I believed in C-Mike until he got cut last year.  Then again, this is just my hobby - that's their full-time job.  They're supposed to better than us.

But yeah, put him as a talent evaluator, he'd be awesome.   What's becoming more and more apparent is that when Elway falls in love with a guy, he falls hard.   The best orgs have guys to provide a counterpoint and keep the org from making bad decisions.

As much as we malign Jerry Jones - he actually has guys to talk him down.   The most famous story of his son Stephen taking the draft card away from him to pick Zack Martin over Johnny Manziel was literally a franchise-changer.  I love Elway, but no one should have that level of unchallenged decision-making.   Even if your approach is genius, the NFL adapts and changes.  Elway's been a master at that - but the danger is when you start believing your approach is fool-proof and doesn't need to evolve or change.  That's what is worrying me here.   Elway changed his BPA approach to need because we were an elite team.  I'd argue against it even then, but I get the reasoning.   Now it's clear we're not good enough talent-wise to be solely a need-first team.  And we've got to stop reaching so badly early on.  The only way that happens is if there are guys in the org that can challenge Elway to keep changing and evolving - it shouldn't be up to him to wake up and realize that.   That's the concern - is Elway ready to change again? 

I know it sounds like it's all doom and gloom sometimes with @AnAngryAmerican when he talks about the FO but he's 100 percent spot on when he questions the org on only hiring and promoting from within. The best orgs have these devils' advocates to provide outsiders' perspectives or they bring in outsiders to keep the process fresh and able to evolve.   I hope we find one of those guys soon in the scouting department.

[AKRNA]

5 hours ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

If Gordon runs all over us and/or our OTs get blown up by the Ingram and Bosa we will know it's going to be a rough year. If, on the other hand, we handle things well I'll have a more positive outlook. 

I don't agree. By all rights and any objective measure that should happen.

That's as good a 4-3 front as we'll face this year going against a new OL that has yet to play a snap together. If we even get close to holding our own that's a huge win IMO. 

Now, if we don't improve when we play them in a month then it's a cause for concern.

Same with stopping Gordon. That's a tough job anytime and as dinged up as we are on the DL it won't be easy.

Anyway, let's wait for the rematch before we write off both lines.

I'd expect weekly improvements from both units throughout the season

[thebestever6]

I am please with the way elway has drafted given the aspects of him picking late.

 

That being said this team goes as far as Siemians talent does and I just don't think that is very far. I hope I'm wrong. It has little to do with roster and more to do with qb.

I think tge superbowl 50 roster spoiled our fans.