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Mind Character

2020/2021 - The 55: Roster Talk & Team-Building Analysis

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54 minutes ago, NudeTayne said:

The fat trimming begins:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001102223/article/browns-new-gm-cuts-cb-tj-carrie-three-others

+D. Harris, Kush, Adarious Taylor

In before, "Oh, jeez...do they ever learn? This is petty, vindictive even to cut four Dorsey guys. I want the best players, not pissing matches 🙄!"

I win a pissing contest with ease.  I piss excellence.

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6 minutes ago, ditchdigger said:

Not happening. 

He would get 12-14M annually in this market, so there's no reason to take a pay cut for him.

He is on a 1 year deal. There is no scenario where he can be replaced by a comparable player on a 1 year deal.

Everybody counting on him getting cut should prepare themselves for disappointment. 

This.

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37 minutes ago, ditchdigger said:

Not happening. 

He would get 12-14M annually in this market, so there's no reason to take a pay cut for him.

He is on a 1 year deal. There is no scenario where he can be replaced by a comparable player on a 1 year deal.

Everybody counting on him getting cut should prepare themselves for disappointment. 

He hasnt hit 10 sacks in ages. 

I dont see uim breaking 10 million per year. 

That said, i am not against keeping him.

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1 hour ago, bruceb said:

This is why I cannot see keeping him.

How do you plan your roster with someone whose track record says that he won't be able to answer the bell for a significant number of games?

It's a good question.

Maybe someone comes free after cut-downs or is able to be on the team via trade.

It's not optimal, but what are the alternatives?

The list of Free Agents is rough unless we want to make Jadaveon Clowney or Yannick Ngakoue top tier paid DEs or just roll with Chad Thomas and a Jabaal Sheard FA budget contract.

Comparable talents are in-line for multi-year guaranteed deals and overpays.

There is no future guaranteed money for Vernon and there's cost certainty.

Unfortunately, depending on how FA and the draft shakes out Vernon on a reduced contract 1-year deal might be the best option.

On 1/22/2020 at 4:46 PM, Mind Character said:

To keep or cut Olivier Vernon Calculation (i.e., Can we readily replace him this off-season?):

1.) Is there a potential quality starting DE available where we select in round 1 and 2?

-- Answer: Round 1 maybe (AJ Epenesa; Julian Okwara); Round 2 maybe if Okwara falls.

2.) If so, is it worth selecting those players over other players at 10th overall and 42 overall?

-- Answer: No, Epenesa is a nice prospect but there's a lot of question marks so it would not be worth it at 10th overall to take Epenesa over the premium OTs, or even other better prospects at less needy positional groups like CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Javon Kinlaw, Krisitan Fulton, Derrick Brown, or Isaiah Simmons.

--- It may make more sense if we traded down some then selected the DEs. At 42 overall, a Okwara selection over likely other more quality player OLineman and other positions will make it a tough call. How good is Okwara anyway? Is he really a longterm solution we want to spend a 2nd round pick on when we might be able to get a more sure-fire longterm solution at another position at 42?

3.) Are there quality starting DEs available in Free Agency?

--- Yes, but at what cost? Free agency (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/ufa/defensive-end/)

--- We can go out and break the bank 54 Mil GTD or more for guys like Yannick Ngakoue or Jadaveon Clowney based on their market value projections.

--- We can go out and Pay 30-34 Mil GTD for a guy like Robert Quinn.

--- We could go budget shopping and pay 15 Mil to 30 Mil GTD with a cap hit over at least 2 years for Jabaal Sheard, Michael Bennett, Vic Beasley, Shaq Lawson, Ronald Blair, or Emmanuel Ogbah.

4.) Is it likely we can/should replace Vernon in the draft?

--- Doubtful. The value at 10 and 42 along with the quality of players available at this point seem to suggest it would not be a quality decision to spend that capital on a DE.

5.) Is it likely we can/should replace Vernon via free agency?

-- Maybe, but would any of those players be longterm solutions? Would spending more GTD money and incurring bigger cap hits over multiple years be worth it relative to Vernon?

6.) So, what should we do?

--  Keep Vernon as a 1-year bridge restructured deal to next year's draft and free agency, hope he's able to remain more healthy throughout the season, and cut him at the end of the year with no cap penalty.

 

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14 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said:

He hasnt hit 10 sacks in ages. 

I dont see uim breaking 10 million per year. 

That said, i am not against keeping him.

Sacks are not the only way to measure a player's worth.

Also, TJ Carrie got $8M on the open market. Oliver Vernon would get at least $12M, no doubt about it. 

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33 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said:

He hasnt hit 10 sacks in ages. 

I dont see uim breaking 10 million per year. 

That said, i am not against keeping him.

I’d keep him just to get a comp pick next year.

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I’d spend a lot of money on clowney and front load the deal. Love his ability to stop the run and rush the passer. One of the few who do both at a high level. 

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3 minutes ago, sdrawkcab321 said:

I’d spend a lot of money on clowney and front load the deal. Love his ability to stop the run and rush the passer. One of the few who do both at a high level. 

He’s the best run defender in the NFL at defensive end. That alone would make me pay him mega bucks. He just needs to get close to 8-10 sacks.

Edited by candyman93

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The contract number for Jack Conklin is going to be utterly insane.

 Now that Humphries got 30GTD and AAV at 15 mil per.

That's a tough floor.

Conklin likely gets 17-18 mil per with 38 mill GTD exceeding Trent Brown's contract from last year, or more likely he'll get franchised due to his injury history.

Greg Robinson and the Vaitai's of the world are going to get at least 12 mil AAV. The GTD money is up for debate.

 

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2 minutes ago, Mind Character said:

The contract number for Jack Conklin is going to be utterly insane.

 Now that Humphries got 30GTD and AAV at 15 mil per.

That's a tough floor.

Conklin likely gets 17-18 mil per with 38 mill GTD exceeding Trent Brown's contract from last year, or more likely he'll get franchised due to his injury history.

Greg Robinson and the Vaitai's of the world are going to get at least 12 mil AAV. The GTD money is up for debate.

 

Id still consider hitting conklin on that, the one thing worse than having an over paid rt, is not having a right tackle.

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23 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said:

Id still consider hitting conklin on that, the one thing worse than having an over paid rt, is not having a right tackle.

And we already are overpaying the stiff RT we have.

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14 minutes ago, bruceb said:

And we already are overpaying the stiff RT we have.

And we dont have one functionaly we barely have one, 12 sacks, penalties, hardly right tackle play.

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2 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said:

And we dont have one functionaly we barely have one, 12 sacks, penalties, hardly right tackle play.

Getting a viable LT in the draft in R-2 or 3 and picking up Conklin should cure what ails our OL.

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3 minutes ago, bruceb said:

Getting a viable LT in the draft in R-2 or 3 and picking up Conklin should cure what ails our OL.

I hope so, i dont mind over inversting in the line to be honest  

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