Draft watch 2020

[SweetFancyMoses]

14 hours ago, Revenant said:

I could live with Chaisson, particularly if Henderson if gone and we can't trade back.  However, I actually think there is more value in the late 2nd or 3rd.  I really like James Lynch and Curtis Weaver a bit better given where they are anticipated to be drafted.

I can't tell if Weaver is just that fast, or the tackles he played against are just that slow.   It's not like he's beating them with technique or bend,   he just runs by them and turns.   

[eagles suck]

https://insidethestar.com/cowboys-showing-interest-in-baylor-wr-denzel-mims/

[Calvert28]

7 minutes ago, eagles suck said:

https://insidethestar.com/cowboys-showing-interest-in-baylor-wr-denzel-mims/

Finally!

[DaBoys]

7 minutes ago, Calvert28 said:

Finally!

Old news.

[Matts4313]

Interesting data from Reddit:

Quote

I’m not interested in individual players and their scores. The focus is to look at the success of the entire sample of each position. When looking at individual players, you will find some outliers that don’t belong in the success group or the failed group (Like Billy Sims who was clearly on track but was derailed by an injury). The way I use individual players is to look at players close to the threshold on both sides to see if the threshold value seems to make sense.

Here is my analysis using draft data spanning 1,921 picks across rounds 1 and 2 from 1980 to present. For now, Active players are excluded from this analysis.

NFL Positional Success Rate

 

Picks 1-10

Pos	Count	Success %
QB	37	43%
WR	35	49%
RB	39	54%
TE	4	N/A
C	0	N/A
G	11	45%
T	38	66%
DT	24	71%
DE	41	46%
LB	37	59%
DB	42	69%
Total	308	56%

Round 1, Picks 11+

Pos	Count	Success %
QB	30	43%
WR	76	50%
RB	77	40%
TE	23	65%
C	12	92%
G	34	62%
T	59	58%
DT	52	50%
DE	84	54%
LB	64	55%
DB	99	58%
Total	615	54%

Round 2

Pos	Count	Success %
QB	35	46%
WR	127	47%
RB	98	45%
TE	51	53%
C	28	79%
G	53	66%
T	70	59%
DT	62	50%
DE	102	54%
LB	152	63%
DB	211	63%
Total	998	57%

Quote

This is how I calculated career score which is used in the success rate %:

• 1 point for every season as the primary starter
• 1 point for every season they make the Pro Bowl
• 1 point for every 1st team All-Pro (the assumption is they were also a Pro Bowler, so they would accumulate 2 points)
• 1/3 point for any season as a non-starter

Very simple, and again…arbitrary. You might think my weights and scoring are wrong, and that’s ok, directionally the results would be similar using a number of different metrics and point values. I still consider this project a WIP and will likely tweak over time.

So, what determines if a pick is a hit or a miss? It depends on when they were drafted. I decided not to get too granular. I have three sets of thresholds.

• If a player is selected in the Top10, the threshold is 7.5 points
• Selected in Round 1, picks 11+, 5.5 points
• Selected in Round 2, 3.5 points

I wanted the thresholds to give me a relatively similar success rate on aggregate across the three draft ranges. The success rates across all positions for picks 1-10 with a 7.5 threshold was 56%, the rest of Round 1 at 5.5 was 54%, Round 2 with a 3.5 threshold was 57%.

 

[resilient part 2]

Is the interest that Dallas is showing 4 pick number 17 or just doing their homework in case he slips to the second round?

Weapons weapons weapons

[Calvert28]

7 minutes ago, resilient part 2 said:

Is the interest that Dallas is showing 4 pick number 17 or just doing their homework in case he slips to the second round?

Weapons weapons weapons

That or he could be worse case pick at 17 if everyone else we want is off the board and we are unable to trade down.

[matt79511]

19 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Interesting data from Reddit:

 

I've seen other studies like this peg DT as one of the lower ROI positions in early rounds- kind of interesting given how much we clamor for them on here. It's why I'm a tad bit dubious of Kinlaw. He probably won't be a huge bust or anything, but may not be the sort of value at 17 he'd be made out as. He might just end up being okay.

Edited April 5, 2020 by matt79511

[DaBoys]

So RBs are actually harder to find than QBs unless drafted in the top 10

[DaBoys]

6 minutes ago, matt79511 said:

I've seen other studies like this peg DT as one of the lower ROI positions in early rounds- kind of interesting given how much we clamor for them on here. It's why I'm a tad bit dubious of Kinlaw. He probably won't be a huge bust or anything, but may not be the sort of value at 17 he'd be made out as. He might just end up being okay.

Look at the success rate of top 10 DTs though, almost as full proof as a 2nd round center

[DaBoys]

And nearly 100% of all first round center's are somewhat successful.

 

No wonder Frederick worked out so well

[Matts4313]

7 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

So RBs are actually harder to find than QBs unless drafted in the top 10

 

5 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

And nearly 100% of all first round center's are somewhat successful.

 

No wonder Frederick worked out so well

For both of these factors you have to look at the circumstances that the OP defines "successful". QBs have significantly longer careers and are given a lot more time to develop before being replaced. RBs are much more disposable so its harder to meet the criteria that the OP set. Centers arent drafted in the 1st round unless they are considered *ELITE* prospects. Hence only 12 of the 923 (1.3%) 1st round picks are centers. 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Matts4313

[matt79511]

51 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

Look at the success rate of top 10 DTs though, almost as full proof as a 2nd round center

I did skip over that part. To be clear, I'd be *very* happy if Brown somehow fell to our pick, and not necessarily mad if we took Kinlaw, just skeptical that it's some sort of steal

Additionally, I can't say I'm that impressed with the DTs behind the Top 2. Feels like a below average crop at both DT and DE this year. So either position would make sense at 17 given that information if we feel strongly about the player on the board

[flyingmonkey30]

15 minutes ago, matt79511 said:

I did skip over that part. To be clear, I'd be *very* happy if Brown somehow fell to our pick, and not necessarily mad if we took Kinlaw, just skeptical that it's some sort of steal

Additionally, I can't say I'm that impressed with the DTs behind the Top 2. Feels like a below average crop at both DT and DE this year. So either position would make sense at 17 given that information if we feel strongly about the player on the board

I actually quite like the next group of DTs, personally. I think between Blacklock, Gallimore, Madubuike, and Elliott, there could be a good option at 51.

[Northland]

23 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Interesting data from Reddit:

 

Great find Matts.