abstract_thought Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 I continue to hear the "we didn't commit to the run game" trope from fans and media members. It seems to be portrayed in a way that is not supported by the numbers. This argument typically includes qualifiers like "running from the shotgun doesn't count" or "there was no purpose to the run plays that were called" as if these things are known or could even be proven. The Bears were not an outlier in terms of run/pass balance. They leaned more towards the pass than the average NFL team, but they were not pass-heavy to an extreme. What's more - the Bears were not successful running the ball (30th in the NFL in YPC) and running more did not contribute to any significant offensive turnaround. Do fans want to see more runs because it actually helps the team or because it hides the guy who's supposed to be a franchise QB? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 10 hours ago, abstract_thought said: I continue to hear the "we didn't commit to the run game" trope from fans and media members. It seems to be portrayed in a way that is not supported by the numbers. This argument typically includes qualifiers like "running from the shotgun doesn't count" or "there was no purpose to the run plays that were called" as if these things are known or could even be proven. The Bears were not an outlier in terms of run/pass balance. They leaned more towards the pass than the average NFL team, but they were not pass-heavy to an extreme. What's more - the Bears were not successful running the ball (30th in the NFL in YPC) and running more did not contribute to any significant offensive turnaround. Do fans want to see more runs because it actually helps the team or because it hides the guy who's supposed to be a franchise QB? They just sucked at it. The scheme was bad, the players were worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardown3231 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 hour ago, WindyCity said: They just sucked at it. The scheme was bad, the players were worse. Montgomery's best game was one of Trubisky's worst, considering the timeliness of his turnovers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, beardown3231 said: Montgomery's best game was one of Trubisky's worst, considering the timeliness of his turnovers. Trubisky was significantly better when he had sub 40 pass attempts and when the Bears could actually run the ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardown3231 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 1 hour ago, WindyCity said: Trubisky was significantly better when he had sub 40 pass attempts and when the Bears could actually run the ball. He had 35 attempts against the Chargers. The Bears ran the ball 38 times against the Chargers. Trubisky still turned the ball over twice and missed an easy TD- all in the 4th quarter- against the Chargers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 25 minutes ago, beardown3231 said: He had 35 attempts against the Chargers. The Bears ran the ball 38 times against the Chargers. Trubisky still turned the ball over twice and missed an easy TD- all in the 4th quarter- against the Chargers. 1/16 games support your position. Most of the games where he has been above average in "bad throws" have been games where he has thrown over 40 passes. GB1- 45 passes, 17.7%NO-54 passes, 22%Phi- 21 passes, 23%LAR-43 passes, 18.6%NYG-41 passes, 24.3%GB 2-53 passes, 26.4%It is clear that Mitch is not the type of QB that you can throw 40+ passes with in a game, in fact many QBs are not. This correlates pretty strongly with a garbage run gameGB1- 45 passes, 17.7% 12 carries, 2.9 YPC, 2.5 Yards before contactNO-54 passes, 22% 7 carries, 2.4 YPC, 1.31 YBCPhi- 21 passes, 23% 16 carries, 2.9 YPC, 2.35 YBCLAR-43 passes, 18.6% 23 carries, 3 YPC, 2.2 YBCNYG-41 passes, 24.3% 19 carries, 2.4 YPC, 1.5 YBCGB 2-53 passes, 26.4% 23 carries, 2.9 YPC, 1.3 YBCFor Mitch to be efficient he needs a running game that does not suck and that actually receives carries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardown3231 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 42 minutes ago, WindyCity said: 1/16 games support your position. Most of the games where he has been above average in "bad throws" have been games where he has thrown over 40 passes. GB1- 45 passes, 17.7%NO-54 passes, 22%Phi- 21 passes, 23%LAR-43 passes, 18.6%NYG-41 passes, 24.3%GB 2-53 passes, 26.4%It is clear that Mitch is not the type of QB that you can throw 40+ passes with in a game, in fact many QBs are not. This correlates pretty strongly with a garbage run gameGB1- 45 passes, 17.7% 12 carries, 2.9 YPC, 2.5 Yards before contactNO-54 passes, 22% 7 carries, 2.4 YPC, 1.31 YBCPhi- 21 passes, 23% 16 carries, 2.9 YPC, 2.35 YBCLAR-43 passes, 18.6% 23 carries, 3 YPC, 2.2 YBCNYG-41 passes, 24.3% 19 carries, 2.4 YPC, 1.5 YBCGB 2-53 passes, 26.4% 23 carries, 2.9 YPC, 1.3 YBCFor Mitch to be efficient he needs a running game that does not suck and that actually receives carries. Yet if Nagy ran the ball over and over without success, you'd rip him for calling run plays repeatedly despite no success, but I see what you're saying. Right now Nagy doesn't have the personnel to run not only his offense but any offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nads786 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 43 minutes ago, WindyCity said: 1/16 games support your position. Most of the games where he has been above average in "bad throws" have been games where he has thrown over 40 passes. GB1- 45 passes, 17.7%NO-54 passes, 22%Phi- 21 passes, 23%LAR-43 passes, 18.6%NYG-41 passes, 24.3%GB 2-53 passes, 26.4%It is clear that Mitch is not the type of QB that you can throw 40+ passes with in a game, in fact many QBs are not. This correlates pretty strongly with a garbage run gameGB1- 45 passes, 17.7% 12 carries, 2.9 YPC, 2.5 Yards before contactNO-54 passes, 22% 7 carries, 2.4 YPC, 1.31 YBCPhi- 21 passes, 23% 16 carries, 2.9 YPC, 2.35 YBCLAR-43 passes, 18.6% 23 carries, 3 YPC, 2.2 YBCNYG-41 passes, 24.3% 19 carries, 2.4 YPC, 1.5 YBCGB 2-53 passes, 26.4% 23 carries, 2.9 YPC, 1.3 YBCFor Mitch to be efficient he needs a running game that does not suck and that actually receives carries. The best Mitch can be is Jimmy G. A guy that needs a lot around him to be good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, Nads786 said: The best Mitch can be is Jimmy G. A guy that needs a lot around him to be good. I agree with this. The issue is that the Bears are in no position to treat Mitch like Jimmy G because of the way Pace built the team. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, beardown3231 said: Yet if Nagy ran the ball over and over without success, you'd rip him for calling run plays repeatedly despite no success, but I see what you're saying. Right now Nagy doesn't have the personnel to run not only his offense but any offense. I think it’s the former - he doesn’t have the personnel to do what he wants to do, and his desire to implement his system as he wants it to work is completely fair but it’s also his job to recognize what the guys he has cannot do too and adjust accordingly, and he really struggles there. Nagy is really stubborn in terms of continuing to run the same run plays that weren’t working. There were plays we ran in the run game with reasonably consistent success, mostly on plays with a lead blocker either from FB or TE, but we inexplicably didn’t run then very often seemingly because that’s not HOW Nagy wants the offense to move the ball. That’s dumb. No one part is significantly more to blame than the rest IMO. All aspects of the offense outside of Robinson need to be better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardown3231 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 33 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said: I think it’s the former - he doesn’t have the personnel to do what he wants to do, and his desire to implement his system as he wants it to work is completely fair but it’s also his job to recognize what the guys he has cannot do too and adjust accordingly, and he really struggles there. Nagy is really stubborn in terms of continuing to run the same run plays that weren’t working. There were plays we ran in the run game with reasonably consistent success, mostly on plays with a lead blocker either from FB or TE, but we inexplicably didn’t run then very often seemingly because that’s not HOW Nagy wants the offense to move the ball. That’s dumb. No one part is significantly more to blame than the rest IMO. All aspects of the offense outside of Robinson need to be better. When you watch the All-22, however, it's fair to wonder if Nagy would be able to run any system at the moment. Once again the amount of throws Trubisky either missed or didn't see as viable options was alarming for a 3rd year guy. It's easy to say "run more intermediate routes and run more screens; don't forget deep passes to bigger receivers and ensure all of this is done without RPO and sprinkle in some rollouts" but is it really that easy? Will Trubisky all of a sudden see these open receivers? Will he take calculated risks? Will he be more accurate? I'm leaning toward no at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 51 minutes ago, beardown3231 said: Yet if Nagy ran the ball over and over without success, you'd rip him for calling run plays repeatedly despite no success, but I see what you're saying. Right now Nagy doesn't have the personnel to run not only his offense but any offense. You mistake me for someone who rips Nagy. I am the leader of the #firepace movement. Pace built an incredibly flawed offense. He drafted a QB who needs a strong running game and then built a piss poor OL and TE group. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 16 hours ago, abstract_thought said: I continue to hear the "we didn't commit to the run game" trope from fans and media members. It seems to be portrayed in a way that is not supported by the numbers. This argument typically includes qualifiers like "running from the shotgun doesn't count" or "there was no purpose to the run plays that were called" as if these things are known or could even be proven. The Bears were not an outlier in terms of run/pass balance. They leaned more towards the pass than the average NFL team, but they were not pass-heavy to an extreme. What's more - the Bears were not successful running the ball (30th in the NFL in YPC) and running more did not contribute to any significant offensive turnaround. Do fans want to see more runs because it actually helps the team or because it hides the guy who's supposed to be a franchise QB? They couldn’t execute their runs up front. Early on I did play by play from all 22 for as much as I had time for at work. I described missed blocks and/or missed assignments on seemingly every play. What are you supposed to call when nothing works? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardown3231 Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 Just now, dll2000 said: They couldn’t execute their runs up front. Early on I did play by play from all 22 for as much as I had time for at work. I described missed blocks and/or missed assignments on seemingly every play. What are you supposed to call when nothing works? Maybe if the opposing defenses respected Trubisky in the slightest, some of these run plays would occasionally work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted February 7, 2020 Share Posted February 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, beardown3231 said: Maybe if the opposing defenses respected Trubisky in the slightest, some of these run plays would occasionally work. Valid point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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