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beardown3231

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I continue to hear the "we didn't commit to the run game" trope from fans and media members. It seems to be portrayed in a way that is not supported by the numbers. This argument typically includes qualifiers like "running from the shotgun doesn't count" or "there was no purpose to the run plays that were called" as if these things are known or could even be proven.

The Bears were not an outlier in terms of run/pass balance. They leaned more towards the pass than the average NFL team, but they were not pass-heavy to an extreme. What's more - the Bears were not successful running the ball (30th in the NFL in YPC) and running more did not contribute to any significant offensive turnaround.

Do fans want to see more runs because it actually helps the team or because it hides the guy who's supposed to be a franchise QB?

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10 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

I continue to hear the "we didn't commit to the run game" trope from fans and media members. It seems to be portrayed in a way that is not supported by the numbers. This argument typically includes qualifiers like "running from the shotgun doesn't count" or "there was no purpose to the run plays that were called" as if these things are known or could even be proven.

The Bears were not an outlier in terms of run/pass balance. They leaned more towards the pass than the average NFL team, but they were not pass-heavy to an extreme. What's more - the Bears were not successful running the ball (30th in the NFL in YPC) and running more did not contribute to any significant offensive turnaround.

Do fans want to see more runs because it actually helps the team or because it hides the guy who's supposed to be a franchise QB?

They just sucked at it.

The scheme was bad, the players were worse.

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1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

Trubisky was significantly better when he had sub 40 pass attempts and when the Bears could actually run the ball.

He had 35 attempts against the Chargers.

The Bears ran the ball 38 times against the Chargers.

Trubisky still turned the ball over twice and missed an easy TD- all in the 4th quarter- against the Chargers.

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25 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

He had 35 attempts against the Chargers.

The Bears ran the ball 38 times against the Chargers.

Trubisky still turned the ball over twice and missed an easy TD- all in the 4th quarter- against the Chargers.

1/16 games support your position.

 

Most of the games where he has been above average in "bad throws" have been games where he has thrown over 40 passes.

GB1- 45 passes, 17.7%
NO-54 passes, 22%
Phi- 21 passes, 23%
LAR-43 passes, 18.6%
NYG-41 passes, 24.3%
GB 2-53 passes, 26.4%

It is clear that Mitch is not the type of QB that you can throw 40+ passes with in a game, in fact many QBs are not.
 
This correlates pretty strongly with a garbage run game

GB1- 45 passes, 17.7% 12 carries, 2.9 YPC, 2.5 Yards before contact
NO-54 passes, 22% 7 carries, 2.4 YPC, 1.31 YBC
Phi- 21 passes, 23% 16 carries, 2.9 YPC, 2.35 YBC
LAR-43 passes, 18.6% 23 carries, 3 YPC, 2.2 YBC
NYG-41 passes, 24.3% 19 carries, 2.4 YPC, 1.5 YBC
GB 2-53 passes, 26.4% 23 carries, 2.9 YPC, 1.3 YBC

For Mitch to be efficient he needs a running game that does not suck and that actually receives carries.
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42 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

1/16 games support your position.

 

Most of the games where he has been above average in "bad throws" have been games where he has thrown over 40 passes.

GB1- 45 passes, 17.7%
NO-54 passes, 22%
Phi- 21 passes, 23%
LAR-43 passes, 18.6%
NYG-41 passes, 24.3%
GB 2-53 passes, 26.4%

It is clear that Mitch is not the type of QB that you can throw 40+ passes with in a game, in fact many QBs are not.
 
This correlates pretty strongly with a garbage run game

GB1- 45 passes, 17.7% 12 carries, 2.9 YPC, 2.5 Yards before contact
NO-54 passes, 22% 7 carries, 2.4 YPC, 1.31 YBC
Phi- 21 passes, 23% 16 carries, 2.9 YPC, 2.35 YBC
LAR-43 passes, 18.6% 23 carries, 3 YPC, 2.2 YBC
NYG-41 passes, 24.3% 19 carries, 2.4 YPC, 1.5 YBC
GB 2-53 passes, 26.4% 23 carries, 2.9 YPC, 1.3 YBC

For Mitch to be efficient he needs a running game that does not suck and that actually receives carries.

Yet if Nagy ran the ball over and over without success, you'd rip him for calling run plays repeatedly despite no success, but I see what you're saying. Right now Nagy doesn't have the personnel to run not only his offense but any offense.

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43 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

1/16 games support your position.

 

Most of the games where he has been above average in "bad throws" have been games where he has thrown over 40 passes.

GB1- 45 passes, 17.7%
NO-54 passes, 22%
Phi- 21 passes, 23%
LAR-43 passes, 18.6%
NYG-41 passes, 24.3%
GB 2-53 passes, 26.4%

It is clear that Mitch is not the type of QB that you can throw 40+ passes with in a game, in fact many QBs are not.
 
This correlates pretty strongly with a garbage run game

GB1- 45 passes, 17.7% 12 carries, 2.9 YPC, 2.5 Yards before contact
NO-54 passes, 22% 7 carries, 2.4 YPC, 1.31 YBC
Phi- 21 passes, 23% 16 carries, 2.9 YPC, 2.35 YBC
LAR-43 passes, 18.6% 23 carries, 3 YPC, 2.2 YBC
NYG-41 passes, 24.3% 19 carries, 2.4 YPC, 1.5 YBC
GB 2-53 passes, 26.4% 23 carries, 2.9 YPC, 1.3 YBC

For Mitch to be efficient he needs a running game that does not suck and that actually receives carries.

The best Mitch can be is Jimmy G. A guy that needs a lot around him to be good. 

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6 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

Yet if Nagy ran the ball over and over without success, you'd rip him for calling run plays repeatedly despite no success, but I see what you're saying. Right now Nagy doesn't have the personnel to run not only his offense but any offense.

I think it’s the former - he doesn’t have the personnel to do what he wants to do, and his desire to implement his system as he wants it to work is completely fair but it’s also his job to recognize what the guys he has cannot do too and adjust accordingly, and he really struggles there. Nagy is really stubborn in terms of continuing to run the same run plays that weren’t working. There were plays we ran in the run game with reasonably consistent success, mostly on plays with a lead blocker either from FB or TE, but we inexplicably didn’t run then very often seemingly because that’s not HOW Nagy wants the offense to move the ball. That’s dumb. 

No one part is significantly more to blame than the rest IMO. All aspects of the offense outside of Robinson need to be better. 

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33 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I think it’s the former - he doesn’t have the personnel to do what he wants to do, and his desire to implement his system as he wants it to work is completely fair but it’s also his job to recognize what the guys he has cannot do too and adjust accordingly, and he really struggles there. Nagy is really stubborn in terms of continuing to run the same run plays that weren’t working. There were plays we ran in the run game with reasonably consistent success, mostly on plays with a lead blocker either from FB or TE, but we inexplicably didn’t run then very often seemingly because that’s not HOW Nagy wants the offense to move the ball. That’s dumb. 

No one part is significantly more to blame than the rest IMO. All aspects of the offense outside of Robinson need to be better. 

When you watch the All-22, however, it's fair to wonder if Nagy would be able to run any system at the moment. Once again the amount of throws Trubisky either missed or didn't see as viable options was alarming for a 3rd year guy. It's easy to say "run more intermediate routes and run more screens; don't forget deep passes to bigger receivers and ensure all of this is done without RPO and sprinkle in some rollouts" but is it really that easy? Will Trubisky all of a sudden see these open receivers? Will he take calculated risks? Will he be more accurate? I'm leaning toward no at the moment.

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51 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

Yet if Nagy ran the ball over and over without success, you'd rip him for calling run plays repeatedly despite no success, but I see what you're saying. Right now Nagy doesn't have the personnel to run not only his offense but any offense.

You mistake me for someone who rips Nagy.

I am the leader of the #firepace movement.

Pace built an incredibly flawed offense. He drafted a QB who needs a strong running game and then built a piss poor OL and TE group.

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16 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

I continue to hear the "we didn't commit to the run game" trope from fans and media members. It seems to be portrayed in a way that is not supported by the numbers. This argument typically includes qualifiers like "running from the shotgun doesn't count" or "there was no purpose to the run plays that were called" as if these things are known or could even be proven.

The Bears were not an outlier in terms of run/pass balance. They leaned more towards the pass than the average NFL team, but they were not pass-heavy to an extreme. What's more - the Bears were not successful running the ball (30th in the NFL in YPC) and running more did not contribute to any significant offensive turnaround.

Do fans want to see more runs because it actually helps the team or because it hides the guy who's supposed to be a franchise QB?

They couldn’t execute their runs up front.

Early on I did play by play from all 22 for as much as I had time for at work.  I described missed blocks and/or missed assignments on seemingly every play.

What are you supposed to call when nothing works?

 

 

 

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Just now, dll2000 said:

They couldn’t execute their runs up front.

Early on I did play by play from all 22 for as much as I had time for at work.  I described missed blocks and/or missed assignments on seemingly every play.

What are you supposed to call when nothing works?

 

 

 

Maybe if the opposing defenses respected Trubisky in the slightest, some of these run plays would occasionally work.

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