BDL 2019 Week 1 - Oklahoma City EF5's @ New Orleans Jazz

[SirA1]

BDL 2018 Week 1

Match:  Oklahoma City EF5s @ New Orleans Jazz

Away Owner: @Whicker

Home Owner: @WFLukic

   

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

Edited September 9, 2019 by SirA1

[SirA1]

Oklahoma City

QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Joe Mixon
Outside WR: Allen Robinson
Outside WR: Emmanuel Sanders
Slot WR: Adam Thielen
Slot WR/OW: Robert Woods
LT: David Bakhtiari
LG: Quinton Spain
C: Rodney Hudson
RG: Brandon Brooks
RT: Daryl Williams

QB: Josh Rosen
RB: Frank Gore
WR: D.J. Moore
WR: Michael Gallup
TE: Mark Andrews
OT: Morgan Moses
OG: D.J. Fluker
OC: James Daniels

 

OLB: Von Miller
DT: Cameron Heyward
DT: Stephon Tuitt
OLB: Ryan Kerrigan
ILB: Lavonte David
ILB: Cory Littleton
LCB: Marcus Peters
RCB: Joe Haden
SCB: Pierre Desir
FS: Malik Hooker
SS: Adrian Amos

OLB: Matt Judon
DT: Lawrence Guy
DT: Margus Hunt
LB: Kiko Alonso
LB: Quincy Williams
CB: Shaquill Griffin
CB: Michael Davis
S: Jordan Poyer

New Orleans Jazz

Offense:

QB: Josh Allen
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
WR1: Michael Thomas
WR2: Tyler Lockett
Slot WR: Sammy Watkins
TE: Zach Ertz
LT: Andrew Whitworth
LG: Joel Bitonio
C: Travis Frederick
RG: Kevin Zeitler
RT: Riley Reiff

QB2: Sam Darnold
RB2: Duke Johnson
RB3: Devin Singletary
WR4: Paul Richardson
WR5: Deebo Samuel
OL6: Bobby Massie
OL7: Justin Pugh
OL8: Connor McGovern

Defense:

DE: Calais Campbell
NT: Marcell Dareus
UT: Geno Atkins
DE: Olivier Vernon
LB: Josh Allen
LB: Danny Trevathan
CB: Stephon Gilmore
CB: Kyle Fuller
Slot CB: Chris Harris Jr.
SS: Micah Hyde
FS: Darnell Savage

DE3: Nick Bosa
DT3: Sheldon Richardson
DT4: Johnathan Hankins
LB3: Denzel Perryman
LB4/S3: Tony Jefferson
S4: Haha Clinton-Dix
CB4: Justin Coleman
CB5: Jason Verrett

 

 

Edited September 8, 2019 by SirA1

[SirA1]

Oklahoma City

We welcome in the 2019 season in an appropriate way with a trip to our now oldest rivals, the New Orleans Jazz. Both of our teams have taken gigantic steps towards new eras with the changing of both quarterbacks, and we look to get not only our season but the new epoch of our New Orleans rivalry underway with a big win on their turf.

Offense:

On offense this week we want to come out fast and aggressive with an air raid offense that looks to attack the middle of the field primarily and wear down a top heavy defensive unit.

New Orleans has a strong trio of corners, but they lack talent behind them. We want to come out with a four wide look as our base offense in order to stretch the New Orleans secondary to the maximum. Allen Robinson and Emmanuel Sanders will start outside with Adam Thielen and Robert Woods manning the inside routes. We expect Stephon Gilmore and Kyle Fuller to play on the outside with Chris Harris playing against Thielen in the slot, and this gives us a lot of freedom with Woods, who will not only run his entire route tree, but will also get involved on jet sweeps and WR runs. Of course, we will focus on finding good matchups, but our primary strategy will be to open up the middle of the field as much as possible for Woods, Joe Mixon, and Thielen to get one-on-one matches. As we do not respect Tony Jefferson in coverage nor New Orleans' linebacker corps, we feel we can get good matchups here early and often. We will rotate in D.J. Moore to keep everyone rested as well as Mark Andrews in 3 WR, 1 TE sets.

Matthew Stafford is our new signal caller and his playstyle is perfect for what we are trying to accomplish. We want to get him into his rhythm early and let him dictate the flow of our offense. We expect he and his talented group of wideouts to be in constant communication as they search for a way to find a good matchup in space. We know the matchup is there with this deep group, and we trust Stafford to make it happen.

We will use the passing game to set up running lanes. Early on, the run game will primarily be a tool for Stafford to utilize as a change of pace or counterplay. Later in the game, it will serve as the jabs that take the final wind out of a worn down defensive unit. Mixon will serve as a three-down feature back in this game with him getting as many snaps as he can handle. Frank Gore will be available to spell him as necessary.

We have faith in our upgraded offensive line against the pass rush of New Orleans. David Bakhtiari, as usual, will be left on an island. Daryl Williams will receive help occasionally from our running back who can also be checked into pass protection against blitz packages.

 

Defense:

On defense this week we want to play with a more conservative approach by looking to limit the running game of New Orleans and eliminating deep plays. We want to end up creating a shoot out with Sam Darnold or Josh Allen needing to keep up with our offense in order to win.

Our base defense this week will be a standard 2-4-5 nickel with a Cover-3 foundation. Malik Hooker will play the middle deep zone while Marcus Peters and Joe Haden play the outside thirds. This will allow Adrian Amos to play one of the shallow zones, giving us additional run support in the box. Pierre Desir, Lavonte David, and Cory Littleton will play the other three shallow zones and assist in run support. We will also utilize a Cover-2 man scheme less frequently. When doing so, our corners will continue to play sides. Our safeties will play deep and give help to our outside corners over the top. Lavonte David will cover Zach Ertz with Littleton covering Ezekiel Elliott.

New Orleans has a good offensive line, but we strongly believe in our defensive line and think that it will be the source of our defensive wins this week. Von Miller and Ryan Kerrigan especially will both be asked to step up and make the one or two big plays our defense needs to give our offense time to win. Miller will get his first cracks at the left side of New Orleans line. We expect Andrew Whitworth to be left on an island and while he is a fine LT, we expect Von to win against anybody solo. This will allow Kerrigan to have a great matchup against Riley Reiff or Bobby Massie on the other side. We will switch these guys often to give Von the best looks as possible as well as rotate in Matt Judon to keep them rested.

When necessary based on offensive personnel or game flow, we can go heavier by including either Lawrence Guy at NT or Kiko Alonso as a third linebacker. We will go to an NT when we need to slant even more heavily towards stopping the run. We will go to the third linebacker against 2 TE sets with Littleton covering the 2^nd TE in man coverage. Of course, we can also bring in up to five corners based on offensive personnel if necessary.

New Orleans Jazz

Psychology:

After being written off all season following Brady’s departure, we’re ready to prove all the doubters wrong. We’re returning the vast majority of the team which has made the semi-finals for consecutive seasons and we’re playing at the renowned BDL fortress, the Louisiana Superdome, in which we’ve only lost 2 matches at in the past two and a half seasons.

Offense:

As is tradition in Louisiana, success on offense starts up front with our offensive line and getting on the front foot with an aggressive, power running game allowing us to control the clock, build momentum and have our pass-rushers tee off in close games.

The plan is to get the ball in Zeke’s hands early and often. We’re expecting anywhere between 20-25 touches for Elliott, while Singletary will pick up 5 or so carries. Johnson will serve as our change of pace and occasionally on 3^rd downs, with a view to be mostly involved in the passing game featuring in both single back and two back sets alongside Zeke.

The run game will be heavily based on going inside and running behind the Bitonio, Frederick and Zeitler interior to wear out the OKC’s pass-focused interior DL. We acknowledge that the combination of Tuitt, Heyward, Kerrigan and Miller is a very solid pass-rush, so if we can take advantage of Tuitt and Heyward’s lack of leverage in the run game and pound Zeke at them low and hard, this will reduce their effectiveness and with only Guy and Hunt who are part-timers to spell them, we know that plenty of 4-5 yard gains will be on offer and the opportunity to string together drives that will control the clock.

At QB, Josh Allen draws the start today as we are simply looking for the passing game to do two things:

1.       Quick strikes to get ball in our playmakers hands and let them work in the space created by the running game; and

2.       Keep the OKC defence honest deep, and use the speed of our outside receivers to prevent safeties from cheating up and leaving the front 6/7 isolated against our offensive line.

We’re well aware of Allen’s limitations and the fact he is not yet a polished passer, however for this matchup, we covet his ability to scramble and we will intend to make full use of this ability by implementing a number of draw plays, bootlegs and design RPOs to be able to take advantage of a defensive front containing the likes of Heyward and Miller who will no doubt be aggressive and perhaps overzealous in their pursuit.

In an ideal world, Allen will throw between 15-20 passes, a bit more than half of which will be bubble screens and quick slants predominantly targeting Watkins, Lockett, Duke and Samuel with the intention of getting them the ball with space for YAC and letting them take on defenders 1v1 in the open, while the rest of the passes will be calculated deep shots or otherwise tosses towards Thomas and Ertz if they only draw single coverage.

Defense:

Times have changed in OKC as well with Stafford now replacing Newton at QB. While OKC will definitely miss Newton’s dynamic playmaking ability, Stafford’s more traditional approach combined with better accuracy is is still a good fit for a team with one of the deepest receiver rooms in the league.

Firstly, we’d like to note that our line-up named is our base package for earlier downs and more generally running situations. With that said, we fully expect OKC to go 4 or 5 wide often, and as such, we’ve accommodated with our bench personnel.

While OKC certainly has a solid line, it’s undeniable that pass-blocking is it’s strength as opposed to  run blocking, and with a backfield consisting of only Joe Mixon and Frank Gore, we’re admittedly not overly concerned about OKC’s running game. We’re confident that our heavy base DL featuring Dareus, Atkins, Campbell and Vernon should swallow the OKC OL and run game and force Stafford to do it all on his own.

Once OKC begins to play their hand and go with more pass orientated packages after giving up on the run, our base will look more like this (with the secondary remaining the same):

DE: Bosa
DT: Atkins
DT: Campbell
DE: Vernon
LEO: Allen
LB/S: Jefferson

The front 5 will largely be given license to get after the QB, with Allen being given the opportunity to roam around. In particular, we plan to have Allen pressure through the inside as Brandon Brooks is only just coming off an achilles injury, while the other starter at guard will be Spain/Fluker/Feeney or an offensive tackle playing out of position. We’d be very surprised if they can hold up against Atkins, Campbell and Allen on a regular basis without any additional help.

Jefferson (or Trevathan) and Hyde will largely be tasked with controlling Andrews and Mixon out of the backfield when they’re operating as receivers, and when they’re not around, Jefferson will stay in an underneath zone while Hyde will man the slot on the other side of Harris. Savage will operate as our highest safety allowing us to best utilise his speed, range and ability to read the game.  

In terms of outside receiver matchups, Gilmore will take Thielen, Fuller will take Robinson while Harris will take whoever lines in the slot predominantly, otherwise Woods/Sanders. In 4CB packages, Coleman will come in to the second slot position and take the other of Woods/Sanders/Moore, while Hyde reprises his more natural safety role.

Offense TL;DR:

-          Wear down OKC’s front as it is on the lighter side and lacking depth.

-          Allen at QB with designed runs to keep the ball in our hands, extend our drives and limit turnovers.

-          Spread the field – either go deep or get the ball in our YAC specialists hands.

Defense TL;DR:

-          Scheme versatility; heavy package for the run and lighter package for the pass.

-          Focus on getting after the QB and taking advantage of a weakened OKC interior.

-          6 DB sets more often than not, with our elite CB trio being trusted in coverage and our safety group roaming the field looking for the ball and clearing out the underneath.

 

Edited September 8, 2019 by SirA1

[VigilantZombie]

This was another really good matchup. In the end, I made this decision a little simple. I went with the experienced group because I feel like that group is gonna have an easier time confusing the opposition and being unpredictable because of their experience.

For me, Oklahoma City takes it in what I think would be a shootoyt. For the sake of fun 35-31 OKC

[Scoundrel]

I’m picking the Jazz here. Josh Allen didn’t have a great game... but with that supporting cast and the defense of the Jazz I think they pull off a close win here. What I like about the Jazz gameplan is they know what they have at QB and they are scheming around that with RPOs, bootlegs, and draws. I like the OKC receivers But the Jazz are already anticipating them giving up on the run and OKC seems like they are going to really going to focus on the 4 wide. I think the Jazz counter well there. I do think OKC will have some success against Justin Coleman in those sets but I don’t think it will be enough. Again very close game. But Jazz for me. 

[Hockey5djh]

I'm not going to lie. I came in here expecting to make some joke about Josh Allen and Josh Allen being the reason why the Jazz lost, but the writeup pretty much nailed it for me. I think OKC lost this game trying to get fancy with a 2-4-5 base against what should have been an expected heavy run game. While I also don't fault OKC with spreading the field and getting their best playmakers out there I think that the Jazz defense had a solid counter which also allowed them to sub out the inactive Dareus from their starting line-up and pretty much avoid that mistake. I do think Woods has a phenomenal game but the Jazz control the ball/clock and the game.

[bcb1213]

This should be interesting 

The zone look should work for the most part as it allows the d to be read and react more easily to the rpo but does leave it vulnerable to the wr screens and number games Okc plans to use 

 

Conversely the offensive game plan of attacking the short middle and using the RB in the passing game should work against what new Orleans has planned 

 

In the running game and trenches for me is where new Orleans has a stronger advantage and they plan on using it a lot.  

Gonna go with the home team in a squeeker

 

 

[SirA1]

Stafford takes this battle behind a solid OL and multiple receiving options. 

The EF5 D also comes to play this week.

[Whicker]

Jason Verrett was inactive 

[PR]

I honestly like Jazz's offense here because of the early running strategy to open up the play action and deep throws to a pair of solid deep threat receivers. 

[Jlash]

I think Whicker has the right idea trying to wear out a defense with limited depth, but I love the Jazz line and I think they'll control the clock enough to not allow Whicker to wear his team out.

[rackcs]

These are two solid all around teams here. It's a close one but I think Oklahoma City's defense and overall game plans give them the slightest of edges in this matchup.

[TedLavie]

Gotta give this one to OKC.

I think both teams can run the ball. NO can run basically on anyone with this lineup, while OKC can take advantage of NO lighter lineup. Obviously running the ball being more important to NO, I give the edge to them here. I think NO also wins the protection battle with solid OL play and a 5 men pass rush against an OL with some elite players but some holes too (mainly the LG spot). However, leaving only 6 person in coverage allows Staff to get some opportunities for big plays. On the other side, the conservative gameplan of Whicker works here imho as there are a lot of bodies to counter NO short passing game. QB play also came into play as I think Allen is more susceptible to giveaways than Stafford

OKC 26-18

[TedLavie]

Just now, TedLavie said:

Gotta give this one to OKC.

I think both teams can run the ball. NO can run basically on anyone with this lineup, while OKC can take advantage of NO lighter lineup. Obviously running the ball being more important to NO, I give the edge to them here. I think NO also wins the protection battle with solid OL play and a 5 men pass rush against an OL with some elite players but some holes too (mainly the LG spot). However, leaving only 6 person in coverage allows Staff to get some opportunities for big plays. On the other side, the conservative gameplan of Whicker works here imho as there are a lot of bodies to counter NO short passing game. QB play also came into play as I think Allen is more susceptible to giveaways than Stafford

OKC 26-18

Also FTR, I think both Whicker and Lukic nailed those gameplans and I really enjoyed the read of both. Great game on both sides

[RuskieTitan]

Give me OKC here.