Buy / Sell / Hold

[Forge]

Week 1 is nearly in the books, which means we have panicked owners. 

I'd like to update this thread throughout the season on guys we are buying / sellling / holding. I'd like to have multiple people contribute to this thread as well, so @JaguarCrazy2832, @Soggust and whomever else, get in here and add your thoughts whenever you can. 

I'm going to be adding my week 1 guys for buying / selling / holding later tonight. 

[EaglesPeteC]

@Forge as a 49ers fan, I’d like to hear your thoughts on what I should be thinking with Dante Pettis.....

[Forge]

Just now, EaglesPeteC said:

@Forge as a 49ers fan, I’d like to hear your thoughts on what I should be thinking with Dante Pettis.....

10 man leagues, I'm dropping him. 12 man leagues, I'm considering who else is on the wire. I have him in my league, started him today, he won't be on my roster come Wednesday lol. But I have 4 wide receivers ahead of him. At this point, I just don't trust him (or that 49er passing game). There's upside, so if there is nobody out there with a solid floor or upside similar to his, I think he's a fine speculative stash, but I think that there are probably options out there I Like more. 

It's hard to get a feel for what really happened today. On one hand, seems like maybe it had to deal with his groin injury, but he's been called out by Shanny a couple of times this off season, and it's hard to gauge whether or not he just hasn't lost his starting spot. He played very sparingly today. The good thing if you keep him is that hte 49er receiver corps is pretty brutal, so he could easily regain his footing on the depth chart. 

[squire12]

1 hour ago, EaglesPeteC said:

@Forge as a 49ers fan, I’d like to hear your thoughts on what I should be thinking with Dante Pettis.....

1 target out of 27 is not a great share.  10 went to Kittle, next highest was 3 (several players).  Not sure how his snaps compare to the others.  

[Forge]

1 minute ago, squire12 said:

1 target out of 27 is not a great share.  10 went to Kittle, next highest was 3 (several players).  Not sure how his snaps compare to the others.  

He sat out most of the game. We seldom saw him in the field and there were multiple conversations about it in the GDT in the 49er forum.

The question that nobody can answer was why. He was dealing with a groin injury all week, but seemed okay to go. So we don't know if it was health related, or if it was performance related as shanny has been hard on him this season

[squire12]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

He sat out most of the game. We seldom saw him in the field and there were multiple conversations about it in the GDT in the 49er forum.

The question that nobody can answer was why. He was dealing with a groin injury all week, but seemed okay to go. So we don't know if it was health related, or if it was performance related as shanny has been hard on him this season

Yeah....I have been reading that same stuff.  Partly why I avoided him in redraft leagues.  

[Melbourne 9er]

Definitely gonna hold the 49ers defence that I started this week 

[CriminalMind]

I would be selling Lockett .. that target share was terrible ... like Rus your not even going to look your boys way more.

[Soggust]

Let me start off by saying - this is not a love/hate list. This is a list of people who I think are good value to buy, good value to sell, and players who need more time to evaluate before making a decision. 

I'm not saying the buys are going to turn into top 5 players, just that I feel they have good upside for what you have to give up to acquire them. 

I'm not saying the sells are gonna bust or are bad players, but just that they are players where I personally think their value is peaking right now.

I'm not saying holding is going to ensure they win you a championship. Basically, it's just a "let's reevaluate in a week or two".

BUY
1) Aaron Jones - Poor performance might scare fantasy owners, but they played the best defense in the NFL. The entire offense was limited and Jamaal Williams looked like a bum. If you have an over-reactionary Jones owner in your league, I would look to jump on him for sure. 
2) Matt Breida - Again, not a great game but he got usage. With Coleman having a potential injury, I think you might be able to snag him for good value. I know Mostert produced better, but I think it's unlikely the 49ers offense will continue to struggle (especially running the ball), so you might be buying him at his floor.
3) Miles Sanders - Sanders got drafted relatively high, but looks to be in a time share. I feel a lot of Sanders owners will be panicking and he presents really good value if you are able to let him ride your bench for a bit as I think he will get much better as the season progresses. 
4) D.K. Metcalf - I was high on Metcalf this offseason and with all the popular waiver wire adds, if he is on your waiver wire, I think he's a must add. Seattle isn't looking to throw all over the field, but defenses are going to know that and key into the running game. With Lockett keeping defenses honest deep, I think Metcalf steps into a good role this year. 
5) Patriots D - If they are on your waive wire (they are in both my leagues), I think Pats D needs an add (ESPECIALLY this week). They look to be really solid this year. They play the Dolphins twice, the Bills twice, the Jets twice, etc. They also look to be good in general. The ONLY concern I have is that the Pats might score often and leave the D on the field a lot, but I am looking to pick up Pats D wherever possible. 

SELL
1) Derrick Henry - Henry is a great player who will have a great season. I'm not suggesting to dump him for scraps, AT ALL, but if you can get a king's ransom on the back of his amazing fantasy performance this week, I think you want to take it. If you don't get a great offer, you can be comfortable holding him, but I just think this is a great time to sell him as people will be willing to offer top dollar for someone who could be inconsistent week-to-week. 
2) Damien Williams - I'm a Chiefs fan so I love Damien Williams, but I feel like Shady McCoy is a bigger deal than people realize. He is going to eat into Williams' workload and, with Thompson in the wings, I feel like Williams value isn't going to go much higher. He had a good week fantasy-wise, but I expect him to start strong and taper as the year goes on. Again, like Henry, I'm not looking to ship him for peanuts, but if I get a great offer, I'm not afraid to move him.
3) Dede Westbrook - This one seems obvious to me. He had his day saved with a TD, so people will still likely be high on him, but with the loss of Foles along with Conley and Chark playing well, I think his opportunity is a bit limited going forward. They will likely want to rely heavily on Fournette and he won't get to play the Chiefs' defense every week. If I can get decent value on his name recognition, I think I'm taking it.
4) Allen Robinson - Robinson is a great player, but I'm concerned about Trubisky. Robinson had a great game on primetime, so I think his value is very good right now. If the value is good, I'm completely okay with moving on from Robinson as I think he will be inconsistent week-to-week due to the nature of the offense. 
5) T.Y. Hilton - I love TY and I think if you are able to flex him or you have very consistent other pieces of your team, you might want to hold, but given the place you likely drafted him - this was basically the dream scenario. He put up lots of a points with great volume and the colts looked decent against a tough defense. This could still be a hold, but again if you get great value, I wouldn't be afraid to move on from what is likely to be a very boom or bust player (as he was even with Luck).

HOLD
1) Lamar Jackson - DUH! I only put him on here because I think Miami is probably going to be the outlier game of the year for him. Not that he isn't good or won't be great going forward, but he's obviously not going to put up 6TDs week to week. This is more of a "hold" for the future as in - Don't freak out if he comes back down to earth next week. He's too good to sell currently and too volatile to sell the farm for.
2) Devonta Freeman - Freeman, like Jones, had a gross matchup week 1. I think people are less likely to be wanting to sell Freeman than Jones, so I put him here. I think the Falcons often come out flat in the early part of the season, but I expect them to do better going forward. You won't get the value you want from him if you try to sell him now, so I say just keep him and reevaluate in a bit.
3) Josh Gordon - Everyone seems to be looking to dump Gordon with the addition of AB. I'm actually quite the opposite. I think Michel and Dorsett are the ones to lose major touches and I see this offense turning a bit more pass heavy. Maybe I'm wrong and just optimistic, but I think you want to hold Gordon and evaluate the AB situation before making any rash moves.
4) Tyler Lockett - He had his game saved by a long TD (surprise, surprise), but I don't see him only getting 2 targets going forward. This was a scary game for Lockett owners, but I think you keep the faith as I expect teams to really start centering around stopping the run vs Seattle. 
5) David Montgomery - The usage is concerning, no doubt. Again, however, this is a situation where you aren't going to get the value you want for him, so I think holding and waiting for the Bears to figure out offense is the play here. Surely, they can't ignore him forever, right? Right? Right?

[Fl0nkerton]

Pettis only got 2 snaps????

[animaltested]

Geronimo Allison: HOLD or DROP?

Was told the Packers slot would get targets. 

[CriminalMind]

15 minutes ago, Fl0nkerton said:

Pettis only got 2 snaps????

Drop worthy depending on league size.

[CriminalMind]

5 minutes ago, animaltested said:

Geronimo Allison: HOLD or DROP?

Was told the Packers slot would get targets. 

He looks to be the #3 WR in GB ... will look at other options if available.

[Forge]

Selling - 

Sony Michel, particularly in PPR leagues. I made the mistake of drafting him over James White in my main league. Too touchdown dependent, and not involved in the passing game (and wouldn't figure to be moving forward). Unfortunately, I don't love the fact that he had such an awful game to open the season, as it's going to scare buyers off. But if you can convince them the points will come based on the volume, you should be okay. 

Antonio Brown, crazy huh? Now that he's on the New England offense, I don't know what to make of him. That offense has a lot of mouths to feed, and it's not going to adjust itself to keep Brown happy. I don't think that he will be terrible by any means, but I anticipate maybe another week or two of being integrated, and then potentially a less than typical target share after that. If you can get full value, like a comparable WR1, I'd make that deal. 

Hollywood Brown. Great game, but it comes with a caveat (the most obvious being it was against the Dolphins) he was on the field for less than 20% of the offensive snaps. Sure, that's somewhat suppressed by taking players out in the 4th quarter. He played a total of 14 snaps. 14! Volume matters. Snap counts matter. Yes, there's a chance that can go considerably up in the immediate future, but if you can get really good value now, I'll take the reliability of someone else so I don't have to bank on that. If you can flip him for someone like Brandin Cooks, I'm doing it all day. This team is still going to run the ball first and foremost in my opinion. 

Holding- 

Miles Sanders. If you have Sanders, you have to hold him. The game was less than ideal, and the fact that Doug seems intent on getting everyone their run is frustrating, but you're simply not going to get the offers / value commiserate with his potential at this point. On the bright side, Sanders paced all Eagles running backs in snap share, and had a touchdown run that was called back. Better days ahead. 

TY Hilton. He had a much better game than he should have against a top matchup, and that bodes well. With Funchess' injury, they may force feed him the ball even more in the passing game. In PPR leagues, I think he's a WR2. I have him as my WR3 / Flex, and I hated the selection at first, but game 1 alleviated some of the fears. He may lack the deep game in this offense, but in a ppr league, all that stuff at the line can be highly beneficial. 

Corey Davis- if he's on your roster, don't drop him. If he's not on your roster, I think he's a viable buy candidate, particularly if someone drops him. Davis is a guy that unfortunately isn't good enough to have success against great corners, and that's a problem because he's Tennessee's unofficial #1 receiver, which means that he draws the top corner more often than not. He's a rotational matchup play that can have some success in a flex spot in the right matchups. When he plays teams that don't have a legit #1 corner, he's playable and may have some success in my opinion. 

Big Ben. No worries about freaking out just yet. It was always going to be a horrific matchup. I drafted him as my top QB in a 2 quarterback league where I have three total. I didn't start him. That should tell you all you need to know about how I felt about him heading into week 1. 

James Connor. Not a good start, and honestly, there's reason to be concerned. People forget that he kind of struggled down the stretch last year, so I get concerns with regards to his actual play. That being said, he's still a volume monster, and this should get better. 

Kerryon Johnson. Yeah, so that wasn't great. He really should have had a much better game, but sometimes that happens. He still led the team in touches (18), and had nearly 60% of the snaps out of the backfield. Bad games happen. Don't freak out. 

Buying

Roheem Mostert - He should be available on your waiver wire, and he is a solid running back that has breakaway speed and fits into the 49ers offense very well. Breida is always getting banged up, and they aren't going to give him 80% of the carries or anything. He could slide in and be an RB3 / Flex while Coleman is out fairly easily. 

Any defense playing the dolphins - Remember how last year for about the first half of the season if you just streamed whatever defense was playing the Bills, you were by far and away the top defense in fantasy? Same situation here, but unlike the Bills from last year, the Dolphins don't have a quarterback who can turn into a running back and punish defenses. The offensive line is horrific, and should lead to multiple sacks per game. Neither Rosen or Fitz is exactly known for ball security, which means picks and potential pick 6's. If you have a deep bench, I'm not even opposed to carrying 2 defenses in this scenario (the Dolphins current matchup + the matchup the following week). 

TJ Hockenson - If you look around this forum, you will see that I have not been a fan of Hock because rookie tight ends, but said I would monitor him. Yeah, he needs to be picked up. Don't get it twisted - I don't know that this keeps up, and if he's already rostered on your team as a backup, I wouldn't mind a sell high here if you have someone else at the top. But that's a promising start. Az was surprisingly the second best team against tight ends last year (sure, some of that is game flow related given how bad they were and how far back they would fall quickly). But he got 73% snap share in week one, which was significantly higher than I expected (thought it would be more of a timeshare with James). 

Aaron Jones- If you want to gamble a bit, wait one more week to buy him up from panicked owners before week 3. He was never going to have a great game against Chicago, and most knowledgeable owners will know and understand that if they own him (heck, they may have even benched him to start the season). Week 2 he gets Minnesota, a defense that just shut down ATlanta and wants to run a heavy ball control offense. I don't expect good things from him in this game, and 2 week struggles could open the door to some really nice discounts. 

All options on the table

Devonta Freeman - I wasn't a fan of his coming into the season - ADP way too high for my liking on a guy that struggles to stay healthy and will be guaranteed to be in a timeshare. I have exactly 0 shares of Freeman in all my leagues. On the bright side, he had the most touches of all the Atlanta running backs. On the down side, he was actually outsnapped by Ito Smith. I think all options are on the table with Freeman. If you can get comparable value for where he was drafted, I don't hate trading him, particularly given that I wasn't a fan of his coming into the season and now he has lost his starting center, which I don't think can be understated. They face the eagles defense next week, the Titan two weeks after that. If you can't get the right value, I think you have no choice but to hold him, though I don't know that you can start him. If you want to buy, I'd recommend waiting one more week. I don't expect a huge game from him against the Eagles, and another poor game could easily put him on the trade block at a steep discount from panicked owners. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Forge]

58 minutes ago, animaltested said:

Geronimo Allison: HOLD or DROP?

Was told the Packers slot would get targets. 

I dropped him before week 1. I had both he and MVS. There may be some back and forth there, but I do believe that MVS is the man to own in that tandem.