Buy / Sell / Hold

[NcFinest9erFan]

20 minutes ago, Forge said:

Selling - 

Sony Michel, particularly in PPR leagues. I made the mistake of drafting him over James White in my main league. Too touchdown dependent, and not involved in the passing game (and wouldn't figure to be moving forward). Unfortunately, I don't love the fact that he had such an awful game to open the season, as it's going to scare buyers off. But if you can convince them the points will come based on the volume, you should be okay. 

Antonio Brown, crazy huh? Now that he's on the New England offense, I don't know what to make of him. That offense has a lot of mouths to feed, and it's not going to adjust itself to keep Brown happy. I don't think that he will be terrible by any means, but I anticipate maybe another week or two of being integrated, and then potentially a less than typical target share after that. If you can get full value, like a comparable WR1, I'd make that deal. 

Hollywood Brown. Great game, but it comes with a caveat (the most obvious being it was against the Dolphins) he was on the field for less than 20% of the offensive snaps. Sure, that's somewhat suppressed by taking players out in the 4th quarter. He played a total of 14 snaps. 14! Volume matters. Snap counts matter. Yes, there's a chance that can go considerably up in the immediate future, but if you can get really good value now, I'll take the reliability of someone else so I don't have to bank on that. If you can flip him for someone like Brandin Cooks, I'm doing it all day. This team is still going to run the ball first and foremost in my opinion. 

Holding- 

Miles Sanders. If you have Sanders, you have to hold him. The game was less than ideal, and the fact that Doug seems intent on getting everyone their run is frustrating, but you're simply not going to get the offers / value commiserate with his potential at this point. On the bright side, Sanders paced all Eagles running backs in snap share, and had a touchdown run that was called back. Better days ahead. 

TY Hilton. He had a much better game than he should have against a top matchup, and that bodes well. With Funchess' injury, they may force feed him the ball even more in the passing game. In PPR leagues, I think he's a WR2. I have him as my WR3 / Flex, and I hated the selection at first, but game 1 alleviated some of the fears. He may lack the deep game in this offense, but in a ppr league, all that stuff at the line can be highly beneficial. 

Corey Davis- if he's on your roster, don't drop him. If he's not on your roster, I think he's a viable buy candidate, particularly if someone drops him. Davis is a guy that unfortunately isn't good enough to have success against great corners, and that's a problem because he's Tennessee's unofficial #1 receiver, which means that he draws the top corner more often than not. He's a rotational matchup play that can have some success in a flex spot in the right matchups. When he plays teams that don't have a legit #1 corner, he's playable and may have some success in my opinion. 

Big Ben. No worries about freaking out just yet. It was always going to be a horrific matchup. I drafted him as my top QB in a 2 quarterback league where I have three total. I didn't start him. That should tell you all you need to know about how I felt about him heading into week 1. 

James Connor. Not a good start, and honestly, there's reason to be concerned. People forget that he kind of struggled down the stretch last year, so I get concerns with regards to his actual play. That being said, he's still a volume monster, and this should get better. 

Kerryon Johnson. Yeah, so that wasn't great. He really should have had a much better game, but sometimes that happens. He still led the team in touches (18), and had nearly 60% of the snaps out of the backfield. Bad games happen. Don't freak out. 

Buying

Roheem Mostert - He should be available on your waiver wire, and he is a solid running back that has breakaway speed and fits into the 49ers offense very well. Breida is always getting banged up, and they aren't going to give him 80% of the carries or anything. He could slide in and be an RB3 / Flex while Coleman is out fairly easily. 

Any defense playing the dolphins - Remember how last year for about the first half of the season if you just streamed whatever defense was playing the Bills, you were by far and away the top defense in fantasy? Same situation here, but unlike the Bills from last year, the Dolphins don't have a quarterback who can turn into a running back and punish defenses. The offensive line is horrific, and should lead to multiple sacks per game. Neither Rosen or Fitz is exactly known for ball security, which means picks and potential pick 6's. If you have a deep bench, I'm not even opposed to carrying 2 defenses in this scenario (the Dolphins current matchup + the matchup the following week). 

TJ Hockenson - If you look around this forum, you will see that I have not been a fan of Hock because rookie tight ends, but said I would monitor him. Yeah, he needs to be picked up. Don't get it twisted - I don't know that this keeps up, and if he's already rostered on your team as a backup, I wouldn't mind a sell high here if you have someone else at the top. But that's a promising start. Az was surprisingly the second best team against tight ends last year (sure, some of that is game flow related given how bad they were and how far back they would fall quickly). But he got 73% snap share in week one, which was significantly higher than I expected (thought it would be more of a timeshare with James). 

Aaron Jones- If you want to gamble a bit, wait one more week to buy him up from panicked owners before week 3. He was never going to have a great game against Chicago, and most knowledgeable owners will know and understand that if they own him (heck, they may have even benched him to start the season). Week 2 he gets Minnesota, a defense that just shut down ATlanta and wants to run a heavy ball control offense. I don't expect good things from him in this game, and 2 week struggles could open the door to some really nice discounts. 

All options on the table

Devonta Freeman - I wasn't a fan of his coming into the season - ADP way too high for my liking on a guy that struggles to stay healthy and will be guaranteed to be in a timeshare. I have exactly 0 shares of Freeman in all my leagues. On the bright side, he had the most touches of all the Atlanta running backs. On the down side, he was actually outsnapped by Ito Smith. I think all options are on the table with Freeman. If you can get comparable value for where he was drafted, I don't hate trading him, particularly given that I wasn't a fan of his coming into the season and now he has lost his starting center, which I don't think can be understated. They face the eagles defense next week, the Titan two weeks after that. If you can't get the right value, I think you have no choice but to hold him, though I don't know that you can start him. If you want to buy, I'd recommend waiting one more week. I don't expect a huge game from him against the Eagles, and another poor game could easily put him on the trade block at a steep discount from panicked owners. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think I'd buy/hold Sony Michel(I have him). The schedule upcoming is cake. Now if he doesn't post a 15-18 carries, 90 yards and a TD game this week vs Miami then it might be time to panic.

[NcFinest9erFan]

a few other names: Allen Robinson, Tyler Lockett and John Brown. What are you guys doing with these three?

[Forge]

1 minute ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

I think I'd buy/hold Sony Michel(I have him). The schedule upcoming is cake. Now if he doesn't post a 15-18 carries, 90 yards and a TD game this week vs Miami then it might be time to panic.

I Just don't like him in PPR. You're basically banking on the touchdown, otherwise he's getting you 5-8 points. In standard, I have no problems holding him. But in PPR, I'll pass. 

[The BILLievers]

21 minutes ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

a few other names: Allen Robinson, Tyler Lockett and John Brown. What are you guys doing with these three?

I'd buy John Brown. He was named the Bills MVP during training camp and did not disappoint week 1 with a 7 catch, 120+ yards, 1 TD game. He's Allens #1 and should put up a good season.

[Dr LBC]

16 hours ago, Forge said:

10 man leagues, I'm dropping him. 12 man leagues, I'm considering who else is on the wire. I have him in my league, started him today, he won't be on my roster come Wednesday lol. But I have 4 wide receivers ahead of him. At this point, I just don't trust him (or that 49er passing game). There's upside, so if there is nobody out there with a solid floor or upside similar to his, I think he's a fine speculative stash, but I think that there are probably options out there I Like more. 

It's hard to get a feel for what really happened today. On one hand, seems like maybe it had to deal with his groin injury, but he's been called out by Shanny a couple of times this off season, and it's hard to gauge whether or not he just hasn't lost his starting spot. He played very sparingly today. The good thing if you keep him is that hte 49er receiver corps is pretty brutal, so he could easily regain his footing on the depth chart. 

I just saw the snap count breakdown from yesterday and it's... concerning to say the least.  I may hold him another week to see if he somehow manages to force the issue, but if I need the roster spot, he's now first out the door for me whereas Valdez-Scantling was in that position previously.

[Dr LBC]

I'll throw out one other speculative (if you're in such a position to do it) add that could pay dividends: Deon Cain (WR, IND).  Guy got a lot of buzz before he tore his ACL in camp last season and was getting a good amount of training camp buzz this year too.  And now with Moncrief's long-term injury, opportunity is there.

[NcFinest9erFan]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

I Just don't like him in PPR. You're basically banking on the touchdown, otherwise he's getting you 5-8 points. In standard, I have no problems holding him. But in PPR, I'll pass. 

My league is a mix of PPR with half a point per carry so maybe that's why I'm holding on.

[NcFinest9erFan]

50 minutes ago, The BILLievers said:

I'd buy John Brown. He was named the Bills MVP during training camp and did not disappoint week 1 with a 7 catch, 120+ yards, 1 TD game. He's Allens #1 and should put up a good season.

I have all three on my team just curious to see how others feel about them.

I have quite a dilemma this week with these three. Brown and Lockett have better matchups on paper than A rob but after one week is A rob matchup proof? He gets Chris Harris this week.

[Forge]

1 minute ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

My league is a mix of PPR with half a point per carry so maybe that's why I'm holding on.

Oh yeah, that makes more sense for sure. I'd keep him in that league. 

[NcFinest9erFan]

Just now, Forge said:

Oh yeah, that makes more sense for sure. I'd keep him in that league. 

Yeah I guess the only thing I'm taking away from last night is that he got 15 carries so that's a start but if he doesn't put up a solid day this week vs Miami then yeah I'll try to sell....

[SSG]

 

2 hours ago, animaltested said:

Geronimo Allison: HOLD or DROP?

Was told the Packers slot would get targets. 

I'm holding him for another week unless there is a sure fire better player available.  

Think he was effected by game script and the offense not playing all that great.  

 

I've got him in my main league and I'm holding him for another week despite being a little thinner than I'd like to be at WR.  

[Forge]

Terry McLaurin is an absolute Buy, fyi. If he's on your waiver wire, I'd pick him up while everyone is going after Hollywood. The guy played almost every offensive snap for Washington yesterday; he's going to be a factor in that passing game. I don't know that you want to start him out of the gate (Philly secondary is not good), but there is value here. 

[ravens_rool28]

3 hours ago, The LBC said:

I'll throw out one other speculative (if you're in such a position to do it) add that could pay dividends: Deon Cain (WR, IND).  Guy got a lot of buzz before he tore his ACL in camp last season and was getting a good amount of training camp buzz this year too.  And now with Moncrief's long-term injury, opportunity is there.

Isn't Moncrief on PITT though?  

[ravens_rool28]

What are everyone's thoughts on John Ross? He's an interesting case, IMO.  Had such potential coming out of college but hasn't lived up to it, yet.  Saw 12 targets yesterday and made the best of them (while still having some drops). Until AJ comes back, and possibly even after, he could hold some value. I think he's a good pickup if someone like John Brown isn't available and if you have someone you're looking to drop. 

[ravens_rool28]

And, fwiw, I'm holding on Allen Robinson.  I think his talent makes him damn near QB proof.  The Bears offense looked like garbage, but Robinson was still able to eat. He's 1 year removed from his ACL injury and looked like the same guy that got 1,400 yards with Blake Bortles as his QB.