Buy / Sell / Hold

[11sanchez11]

1 hour ago, mattyice0401 said:

Buy sell or hold on OJ Howard?

Sell if you can get something valuable from it. Hold if not.

[SmittyBacall]

On 9/14/2019 at 7:36 PM, mattyice0401 said:

Buy sell or hold on OJ Howard?

His value is so incredibly low right now you might as well hold.

[Forge]

On 9/14/2019 at 4:36 PM, mattyice0401 said:

Buy sell or hold on OJ Howard?

Depends on your league, honestly. I play very aggressively with my cuts and whatnot, and don't carry more than one tight end. So he's a sell for me right now because I can't trust him enough to start him and I won't carry 2. 

[Forge]

I'm kind of thinking of buying Vance McDonald now with Mason Rudolph at the helm. Young quarterbacks love their security blankets. 

I'm selling James Connor who's banged up, not playing overly well, and honestly, could probably use a snap reduction to Samuels and Snell. 

I'm holding Mike Evans. Game 1, he was sick, game 2 he drew the tougher corner matchup. I'm concerned because that offense isn't nearly as prolific as I thought it was. 

Still buying any defense playing miami. I'm buying this so much that I may carry two defenses throughout the year when i can (the team playing the dolphins and their next week opponent)

Selling Austin Ekeler. Bottom line is that Gordon's camp has made this clear that it's not a Bell situation. I need good value here, but if I can unload Ekeler for WR1 or 2 / High end RB2 value, I probably am. Ekeler is a little beast, but I don't want my rb2 situation getting cloudy when Gordon comes back. I'm not selling low, but if I'm getting the proper value, I'm letting him go, I think. 

 Buying Terry McLaurin. I mentioned this before, but I'm buying this. Yesterday he had another 9 targets, 5 receptions. He's playing almost every offensive snap. The best part is, if you don't own him, I find it likely that he'll either be dropped or can be bought low after next weeks game against Chicago where I would guess that he doesn't have a great game. 

Hold Joe Mixon if you have him, Buy Mixon if you don't. Tough situation yesterday, and I don't love the ankle injuries, but he's too talented to be not break out eventually. 

[holt_bruce81]

44 minutes ago, Forge said:

I'm kind of thinking of buying Vance McDonald now with Mason Rudolph at the helm. Young quarterbacks love their security blankets. 

I'm selling James Connor who's banged up, not playing overly well, and honestly, could probably use a snap reduction to Samuels and Snell. 

I'm holding Mike Evans. Game 1, he was sick, game 2 he drew the tougher corner matchup. I'm concerned because that offense isn't nearly as prolific as I thought it was. 

Still buying any defense playing miami. I'm buying this so much that I may carry two defenses throughout the year when i can (the team playing the dolphins and their next week opponent)

Selling Austin Ekeler. Bottom line is that Gordon's camp has made this clear that it's not a Bell situation. I need good value here, but if I can unload Ekeler for WR1 or 2 / High end RB2 value, I probably am. Ekeler is a little beast, but I don't want my rb2 situation getting cloudy when Gordon comes back. I'm not selling low, but if I'm getting the proper value, I'm letting him go, I think. 

 Buying Terry McLaurin. I mentioned this before, but I'm buying this. Yesterday he had another 9 targets, 5 receptions. He's playing almost every offensive snap. The best part is, if you don't own him, I find it likely that he'll either be dropped or can be bought low after next weeks game against Chicago where I would guess that he doesn't have a great game. 

Hold Joe Mixon if you have him, Buy Mixon if you don't. Tough situation yesterday, and I don't love the ankle injuries, but he's too talented to be not break out eventually. 

I really need TE help, What do you think Vance's trade value is? Breida for Vance straight up?

[SmittyBacall]

37 minutes ago, Forge said:

Hold Joe Mixon if you have him, Buy Mixon if you don't. Tough situation yesterday, and I don't love the ankle injuries, but he's too talented to be not break out eventually. 

Evaluating Mixon's worth is tough; on one hand, he can't get much worse. On the other hand, the grass isn't going to get much greener given our offensive line.

Simply put, our running game is nonexistent right now. Our patchwork line gets zero push and is routinely penetrated, penalized and pushed back. Mixon has no room to move and is hit almost immediately. The only saving grace is that Cordy Glenn is expected to come back (hopefully) shortly after recovering from a concussion he sustained during the preseason; but he's yet to practice and there have been no rumours of a return as of yet. It's also worth noting that Zac Taylor has not been afraid of abandoning the run and sticking to the pass. Dalton had 51 attempts versus Seattle (in what was a back and forth, close game), and 42 versus San Francisco (naturally, because it was a blow out). Now, that could change if Glenn comes back and things improve or if their is a theoretical emphasis placed on running the ball, but I wouldn't bet on it. Still, Mixon is too good not to try and give the ball to, and when things aren't working on the ground he'll still see a fair share of work in the passing game. 

Our remaining schedule: @BUF, @PIT, ARI, @BAL, JAX, @LAR, BYE, BAL, @OAK, PIT, NYJ, @CLE, NE, @MIA, CLE (italicized is playoffs).

The bolded above are some pretty good defensive lines/front sevens.

All in all I think it's best to avoid. He'll have a few good outputs here and there (likely Miami, Oakland, Arizona etc.) but will mostly underwhelm. I have him pegged as an RB2/RB3 depending on the match up.

[Dr LBC]

6 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

His value is so incredibly low right now you might as well hold.

Yeah, I've pretty much downgraded him a tier, but that largely means he's in the tier with a bunch of other TE's where you just can't depend on them to be match-up-proof starters who can be depended upon to at least meet their floor weekly.  At this point, those guys are Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, Mark Andrews, and probably Darren Waller (in PPR formats because he's running those short and medium routes and Derek Carr loves him some short and medium stuff).

[Forge]

8 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Evaluating Mixon's worth is tough; on one hand, he can't get much worse. On the other hand, the grass isn't going to get much greener given our offensive line.

Simply put, our running game is nonexistent right now. Our patchwork line gets zero push and is routinely penetrated, penalized and pushed back. Mixon has no room to move and is hit almost immediately. The only saving grace is that Cordy Glenn is expected to come back (hopefully) shortly after recovering from a concussion he sustained during the preseason; but he's yet to practice and there have been no rumours of a return as of yet. It's also worth noting that Zac Taylor has not been afraid of abandoning the run and sticking to the pass. Dalton had 51 attempts versus Seattle (in what was a back and forth, close game), and 42 versus San Francisco (naturally, because it was a blow out). Now, that could change if Glenn comes back and things improve or if their is a theoretical emphasis placed on running the ball, but I wouldn't bet on it. Still, Mixon is too good not to try and give the ball to, and when things aren't working on the ground he'll still see a fair share of work in the passing game. 

Our remaining schedule: @BUF, @PIT, ARI, @BAL, JAX, @LAR, BYE, BAL, @OAK, PIT, NYJ, @CLE, NE, @MIA, CLE (italicized is playoffs).

The bolded above are some pretty good defensive lines/front sevens.

All in all I think it's best to avoid. He'll have a few good outputs here and there (likely Miami, Oakland, Arizona etc.) but will mostly underwhelm. I have him pegged as an RB2/RB3 depending on the match up.

It's a valid point, and I think that it will largely be determined by what I'm giving up, but I always value talent + volume in fantasy, and presuming health (risky), he's got it. My hope in Mixon is that in a ppr league, he would still make his worth somewhat via the passing game (even though the team has Gio). I think that he's just got too much talent, to be honest. Am I giving up a comparable RB1 for him or WR1 right now? Definitely not. But I'll buy as part of a depth for player move on guys that won't help my team too much but may help the other team. Like, in my league, I think the offer I'm going to make is Michel (ppr league) + a wide receiver (I have a solid top 3) on my bench for Mixon. The upside is worth it there. 

[SmittyBacall]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

It's a valid point, and I think that it will largely be determined by what I'm giving up, but I always value talent + volume in fantasy, and presuming health (risky), he's got it. My hope in Mixon is that in a ppr league, he would still make his worth somewhat via the passing game (even though the team has Gio). I think that he's just got too much talent, to be honest. Am I giving up a comparable RB1 for him or WR1 right now? Definitely not. But I'll buy as part of a depth for player move on guys that won't help my team too much but may help the other team. Like, in my league, I think the offer I'm going to make is Michel (ppr league) + a wide receiver (I have a solid top 3) on my bench for Mixon. The upside is worth it there. 

That's fair. One way or another barring health he should still end up with at least 1,200 all purpose yards and 8-10 TDs. 

[Dr LBC]

58 minutes ago, Forge said:

I'm kind of thinking of buying Vance McDonald now with Mason Rudolph at the helm. Young quarterbacks love their security blankets. 

I'm selling James Connor who's banged up, not playing overly well, and honestly, could probably use a snap reduction to Samuels and Snell. 

I'm holding Mike Evans. Game 1, he was sick, game 2 he drew the tougher corner matchup. I'm concerned because that offense isn't nearly as prolific as I thought it was. 

Still buying any defense playing miami. I'm buying this so much that I may carry two defenses throughout the year when i can (the team playing the dolphins and their next week opponent)

Selling Austin Ekeler. Bottom line is that Gordon's camp has made this clear that it's not a Bell situation. I need good value here, but if I can unload Ekeler for WR1 or 2 / High end RB2 value, I probably am. Ekeler is a little beast, but I don't want my rb2 situation getting cloudy when Gordon comes back. I'm not selling low, but if I'm getting the proper value, I'm letting him go, I think. 

 Buying Terry McLaurin. I mentioned this before, but I'm buying this. Yesterday he had another 9 targets, 5 receptions. He's playing almost every offensive snap. The best part is, if you don't own him, I find it likely that he'll either be dropped or can be bought low after next weeks game against Chicago where I would guess that he doesn't have a great game. 

Hold Joe Mixon if you have him, Buy Mixon if you don't. Tough situation yesterday, and I don't love the ankle injuries, but he's too talented to be not break out eventually. 

I'm tentative on McDonald.  I'd like to see more sample-size with Rudolph, but I don't think we're going to get the benefit of that.  He's still going to be a TD-dependent guy for me, and the guy I'm actually taking a flier on from Pittsburgh right now (not starting him yet, but if I've got the bench spot, particularly in PPR formats I'm buying while he's still cheap) is James Washington.  Go back and look at the preseason when Rudolph was in; he rode Washington like Seattle Slew and there's a fairly well-documented spike between backup QB's who have to play resulting in an uptick of looks for the backup receivers that they have greater familiarity and chemistry with.

You've probably got more input here, @Forge but I'm looking at Deebo Samuel right now and seeing an ideal stash when I look at his target-share.  If I were betting on the games to round out the first half of the season, I'd wager we probably see more higher-scoring weeks from Goodwin (who is the only verifiable starting WR and non-backfield target not named Kittle right now), but probably more week-to-week consistency in terms of meeting floor from Deebo.  But I foresee Deebo's role and production growing, similarly to what we saw from Pettis last season, particularly if/when Goodwin gets injured (which should shade for Trent Taylor's return to offense).

[Forge]

16 minutes ago, holt_bruce81 said:

I really need TE help, What do you think Vance's trade value is? Breida for Vance straight up?

I possibly don't mind that deal, but there are a lot of factors that go into it. 

Who is on the TE waiver wire? I'm kind of buying Vance, but that's still a risk because we have no idea what that offense will really look like. Depending on who else is out there, it may not be worth it to give up the asset. Who are your running backs ahead of Breida. 

The thing about Breida is this - he will always be in a timeshare with restricted touch count. A lot of times, it's going to be less than 15. There are too many other people that can help shoulder the load and he has durability issues, so his upside is capped. If he's a guy that will likely never see your starting lineup (say your RB4), I think it's fine. 

[Forge]

4 minutes ago, The LBC said:

I'm tentative on McDonald.  I'd like to see more sample-size with Rudolph, but I don't think we're going to get the benefit of that.  He's still going to be a TD-dependent guy for me, and the guy I'm actually taking a flier on from Pittsburgh right now (not starting him yet, but if I've got the bench spot, particularly in PPR formats I'm buying while he's still cheap) is James Washington.  Go back and look at the preseason when Rudolph was in; he rode Washington like Seattle Slew and there's a fairly well-documented spike between backup QB's who have to play resulting in an uptick of looks for the backup receivers that they have greater familiarity and chemistry with.

You've probably got more input here, @Forge but I'm looking at Deebo Samuel right now and seeing an ideal stash when I look at his target-share.  If I were betting on the games to round out the first half of the season, I'd wager we probably see more higher-scoring weeks from Goodwin (who is the only verifiable starting WR and non-backfield target not named Kittle right now), but probably more week-to-week consistency in terms of meeting floor from Deebo.  But I foresee Deebo's role and production growing, similarly to what we saw from Pettis last season, particularly if/when Goodwin gets injured (which should shade for Trent Taylor's return to offense).

I'm with you on McDonald. I think I'm buying, but there's trepidation there. A couple of others I may prefer in a ppr league that could maybe be had low as well. I've heard a couple of people mention Washington as a good buy here. I'm somewhat out on JuJu. Not selling him per se, but I don't know that he's a WR1 any more. I think if I could bait the Tyreke Hill owner into swapping Hill for JuJu right now, i may do that. Take it on the chin for a couple of weeks if I have depth and hope it pans out, and sit on Hill. 

I Love Deebo (my third rated WR in this draft), and I had him pegged as Shanny's receiver at the senior bowl. I think he's a great stash because it is very clear right now that Pettis is majorly in the doghouse following yesterday's game. Deebo has the highest likelihood of becoming the WR1 in SF, no question (though I did mention in another thread that I was a big supporter of Goodwin as a deepstash, and I stand by that). I do have concerns about him, of course. Mainly 2 - I have real concerns over what this offense looks like with Staley out in the passing game, and the Trent Taylor / Jalen Hurd return. Jimmy G loves him some Trent Taylor, and he could be a target monster.  He should eat up some targets, but the bigger plays should still be Goodwin and Deebo. Hurd is a complete enigma. We have no idea what to expect from him with regards to how much he will play. He's so unlike all of our other receivers, and has the physical traits to be a stud. Be he's so raw. I'm assuming that his season will start with specific packages and plays (especially in the red zone), so he may not eat into the main passing game as much. I think Deebo is a high quality stash. He had a bad drop yesterday, and the team continued to push the ball his way, which is a great sign. 

[Dr LBC]

A few other notes:

I'm selling (and I actually am just outright dropping him for waiver pickups) Dede Westbrook.  Rookie QB's are typically good to, at best, support one fantasy WR only (and if yesterday's game is any indication, best case scenario is that it will be impossible to determine which of Dede or Chark it will be from week to week).  At this point, he's better as a grenade on the waiver wire, IMO, where someone may pick him up and start him and he burns them... and possibly he drops someone in order to pickup Dede who is more helpful to you.

Predictability has me waivering on MVS, barring another Geronimo injury.  I needed to see more 3/6 for 19 yards from him in a game where Adams drew an elite shutdown corner matchup.  I'm holding for the moment, but I'm willing to part with him if I see an opportunity to improve my roster or patch a hole.

I'm also buying Nelson Agholor especially in PPR leagues, try to get him cheap while the news is still foggy on DeSean and Alshon, but the former picked up a groin injury which tends to linger and Agholor and Wentz have solid chemistry.  Ertz will still be the primary target, but defenses will also key on that.

 

 

[Humble_Beast]

Are we buying Josh Allen yet? Bills are 2-0 and own NY. 

- the man is a getting better as a passer 

- always a threat to run which translate to a high ceiling 

- bills defense might be top 5. So he will get the ball more often to do damage 

I could see the Bills going on a run and making the playoffs this year. If this happens Allen will be playing good football and lighting it up in fantasy 

[N4L]

8 hours ago, The LBC said:

Predictability has me waivering on MVS, barring another Geronimo injury.  I needed to see more 3/6 for 19 yards from him in a game where Adams drew an elite shutdown corner matchup.  I'm holding for the moment, but I'm willing to part with him if I see an opportunity to improve my roster or patch a hole.

He is a hold for me, he is getting the second most snaps of the WRs by a large margin and I think its only a matter of time before he gets rolling. at some point, the stats will be there. 

 

8 hours ago, Forge said:

I Love Deebo (my third rated WR in this draft), and I had him pegged as Shanny's receiver at the senior bowl. I think he's a great stash because it is very clear right now that Pettis is majorly in the doghouse following yesterday's game. Deebo has the highest likelihood of becoming the WR1 in SF, no question (though I did mention in another thread that I was a big supporter of Goodwin as a deepstash, and I stand by that). I do have concerns about him, of course. Mainly 2 - I have real concerns over what this offense looks like with Staley out in the passing game, and the Trent Taylor / Jalen Hurd return. Jimmy G loves him some Trent Taylor, and he could be a target monster.  He should eat up some targets, but the bigger plays should still be Goodwin and Deebo. Hurd is a complete enigma. We have no idea what to expect from him with regards to how much he will play. He's so unlike all of our other receivers, and has the physical traits to be a stud. Be he's so raw. I'm assuming that his season will start with specific packages and plays (especially in the red zone), so he may not eat into the main passing game as much. I think Deebo is a high quality stash. He had a bad drop yesterday, and the team continued to push the ball his way, which is a great sign.

to add to this about Deebo, shanahan said after the game something like "when a guy is tough, goes to battle for you, and plays super hard every snap, you are going to live with some minor mistakes, because you know hes going to leave it all on the field" 

I took that as a dig against Pettis, who is the guy shanahan had to have so much that he made a major trade up into the second round to get. what a horrible trade up and pick that was. He is super soft.