Hockey5djh Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 So I wanted to challenge a generally accepted drafting concept and see what people think about it. Most drafts consist of the top third of starters or high performing players from previous years, the middle third consists of "safe picks" high floor established players, and the bottom third that is generally high upside lottery tickets. My question: Why is "safe picks" so widely accepted among drafters? Personally, after I get past the starters I go right to higher upside players. My main requirement is that they have a clear path to a starting role (#2/#3 WR, #2 RB behind any older/oft injured players). You'll never catch me drafting "supplemental" guys like Bilal Powell, Duke Johnson Jr, Theo Riddick or older WRs that are taking on lesser roles (Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson, Eric Decker). I feel like hitting on that lottery ticket is much more beneficial than the guy you grimace at when you put him in the starting lineup. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajdodge09 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I personally like to go "safe" rounds 1-3. If one of your top picks bust you're screwed. Then 4-7 I take guys I think are more high risk/high reward. The last third of the draft is mixing zero upside, solid, fill-in vets, and complete 100% upside players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hockey5djh Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, ajdodge09 said: The last third of the draft is mixing zero upside, solid, fill-in vets, and complete 100% upside players. Overall strategy aside, why would you ever take a zero upside player? I'm trying to understand taking a player whose ceiling is something like 600 yards and 3 TDs. Averaged over 16 weeks thats under 40 yards per game with a "oh look what I found" chance at a TD. On most given weeks you'd be disappointed if someone you started gets 4 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 hour ago, ajdodge09 said: I personally like to go "safe" rounds 1-3. If one of your top picks bust you're screwed. Then 4-7 I take guys I think are more high risk/high reward. The last third of the draft is mixing zero upside, solid, fill-in vets, and complete 100% upside players. This is what I do as well. Rounds 1 and 2 specifically, I want the "safest" guys available. I won't ever be drafting gronk. My middle rounds see a lot of reaches on guys who disappointed the year before (Melvin Gordon was on every team I owned last year), young player in good positions, and gut breakout candidates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bianconero Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 hour ago, ajdodge09 said: I personally like to go "safe" rounds 1-3. If one of your top picks bust you're screwed. Then 4-7 I take guys I think are more high risk/high reward. The last third of the draft is mixing zero upside, solid, fill-in vets, and complete 100% upside players. The last third of all of my drafts are soley IMMENSE upside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbadbuff23835 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I'm with ya. Why I took Sammy Watkins real late this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MookieMonstah Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Feel like Brandon Marshall has pretty high upside on the Giants, so thats not a great example but having those "safe" guys like Powell who will get you 6-12 points a week usually is pretty clutch to have on your bench. An injury, or last minute lineup change and you have a guy you can plug in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MemphisEagles Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Nothing is safe in fantasy. I say go risky but have a backup plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 hours ago, MemphisEagles said: Nothing is safe in fantasy. I say go risky but have a backup plan Pretty much this. Yes I used to roll with safer guys but i have taken more risks with my picks once 1-4 are established rounds but if everyone you take has a low floor/high ceiling after round 4, you just might not hit on anyone. I tend to think guys with no ceiling but a high floor still tend to average 7-8 ppg which isn't horrible if your 1st 4 picks were really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohnson2009 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Like with anything, it's important to have balance. Those mid-round guys you should target are the players who you believe have a high floor and at least a RB2/WR2 ceiling. I will grab more of those types if I took some risks early on (zeke, gronk, QB/TE early) At the end of drafts it's all about upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MemphisEagles Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Well if you get a low ceiling, high floor guy he still has the lowest floor possible: injury. So if you get a guy who's potential is ten points a game but he gets put on IR, you played yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohnson2009 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 15 hours ago, MemphisEagles said: Well if you get a low ceiling, high floor guy he still has the lowest floor possible: injury. So if you get a guy who's potential is ten points a game but he gets put on IR, you played yourself All players get injured you can remove that common denominator lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MemphisEagles Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 15 hours ago, bigjohnson2009 said: All players get injured you can remove that common denominator lol. That's my point. No one is a safe player because they can all get injured. Better to go after the guy with the upside because eliminating risk in fantasy is a fool's errand. Most leagues have just as many or even more bench spots than active roster spots. If you take all risky guys, and only half of them work out, that is fine. Because that's all you need to start. And in ten man leagues or less especially there is always safe, low upside guys on waivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohnson2009 Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 I play 14 and 12 team leagues - you really need to acquire your meat and potatoes in the mid-rounds. I agree on 10 team leagues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DontTazeMeBro Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Because people don't realize that you need a couple/few guys scoring 20+, not a bunch of solid 10s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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