Lamar Jackson QB1

[drd23]

18 minutes ago, Danand said:

Passing on 1 down if you play against a light box with Boyle and Ricard on the field - that is playing bad situational football.

Its not like it's getting us anywhere.  The offense is league average at running on 1st down, which doesn't exactly vindicate being one of the teams that runs the most, especially when using specialised personnel as much as we do

[Danand]

What are "succesful plays"?

In my world, people can't both complain about about us not using analytics to pass the ball and also complain about getting away from the run - not saying you do.

There are a lot of sayings like "establish the run to set up the pass or the other way around", but essentially it should be about playing to your strengths and what the looks you get, and then executing with effeciency.

As I see it, people use analytics to say "A dictates this, we should do this" without taking context into the equation. Those who favor analytics agree that teams should find balance, but lean more towards a 80-20 to 70-30 percentage of plays slanted towards the passing game. 

[diamondbull424]

13 hours ago, Danand said:

What are "succesful plays"?

In my world, people can't both complain about about us not using analytics to pass the ball and also complain about getting away from the run - not saying you do.

There are a lot of sayings like "establish the run to set up the pass or the other way around", but essentially it should be about playing to your strengths and what the looks you get, and then executing with effeciency.

As I see it, people use analytics to say "A dictates this, we should do this" without taking context into the equation. Those who favor analytics agree that teams should find balance, but lean more towards a 80-20 to 70-30 percentage of plays slanted towards the passing game. 

I think most hear acknowledge we should run the ball. But the balance right now on 1st and 2nd down isn’t there. I think the stat shows we run it like 62% of the time on those downs... that’s far too often, especially when we’re league average on 1st down. Those percentage should be far closer to 51-53% of run plays on those downs. 10% would make a huge difference in the effectiveness of our runs on those downs considering it makes teams less likely to call out specific runs that we’re likely to be running on those downs based on our personnel packages.

Which is also why we shouldn’t be using as much 22 personnel with both Ricard and Boyle. You absolutely don’t want both those guys running routes on the same play because even if you are passing it, there’s no threat of a big play.

Better options would be 12 and 21 with bunched WRs, if we want to have formations that are more adaptable. We can challenge a defense with Hollywood and Duvernay, while also still having the personnel to run it. 

Edited November 12, 2020 by diamondbull424
Spelling and grammar lol

[Danand]

One thing we have lacked for many years are the YAC that other teams live by. Those plays are often a result of schemes and playmakers - we don’t have either in the passing game.

Brown goes down easy, and I actually don’t have a problem with that. If he was with the 49’ers/Chiefs, we would see him having more receptions with YAC. With us his strengths are his ability to sit in zones and work on crossers rather than taking those slants to the house like he did against the Dolphins in week 1 last year.

Boykin has the same ability, but has not yet developed to the point where he is reliable, and Snead is the tough old faithful with less playmaking upside.

Basically our opportunity to get extra yards from short passes are somewhat limited, so the potential outcome from a short completion compared to the potential from a GUS/JK/LJ8 run is not as big as for other teams.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 minute ago, Danand said:

One thing we have lacked for many years are the YAC that other teams live by. Those plays are often a result of schemes and playmakers - we don’t have either in the passing game.

Brown goes down easy, and I actually don’t have a problem with that. If he was with the 49’ers/Chiefs, we would see him having more receptions with YAC. With us his strengths are his ability to sit in zones and work on crossers rather than taking those slants to the house like he did against the Dolphins in week 1 last year.

Boykin has the same ability, but has not yet developed to the point where he is reliable, and Snead is the tough old faithful with less playmaking upside.

Basically our opportunity to get extra yards from short passes are somewhat limited, so the potential outcome from a short completion compared to the potential from a GUS/JK/LJ8 run is not as big as for other teams.

I was looking at Lamar's stats this year and he ranks 51st(!!!!) among QB's(?) in YAC from his receivers. I thought that was incredibly accurate because yeah we RARELY see our WR's run after the catch.

[drd23]

12 hours ago, Danand said:

What are "succesful plays"?

40% of remaining yardage on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, 100% on third down

i.e.

4 yards on your typical 1st down

2nd down depends on what you did on 1st

Get a 1st down on 3rd down

[Thomas5737]

2 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I was looking at Lamar's stats this year and he ranks 51st(!!!!) among QB's(?) in YAC from his receivers. I thought that was incredibly accurate because yeah we RARELY see our WR's run after the catch.

Well only 46 QBs have thrown a pass so no that's not correct. Of qualified passers Lamar is tied for 23rd (of 33) at 4.6 yac/cmp.

[diamondbull424]

2 hours ago, Danand said:

One thing we have lacked for many years are the YAC that other teams live by. Those plays are often a result of schemes and playmakers - we don’t have either in the passing game.

Brown goes down easy, and I actually don’t have a problem with that. If he was with the 49’ers/Chiefs, we would see him having more receptions with YAC. With us his strengths are his ability to sit in zones and work on crossers rather than taking those slants to the house like he did against the Dolphins in week 1 last year.

Boykin has the same ability, but has not yet developed to the point where he is reliable, and Snead is the tough old faithful with less playmaking upside.

Basically our opportunity to get extra yards from short passes are somewhat limited, so the potential outcome from a short completion compared to the potential from a GUS/JK/LJ8 run is not as big as for other teams.

Which is why I think AJ Brown would have been, in retrospect, the better WR fit for what the Ravens were building offensively around Lamar. No offense to Hollywood because I think he’s far more than “JUST” a deep threat, but within our offense, that’s basically what he is and how he’s used. I think in terms of ability, he’s a 1300 yds type of receiver in a more prolific offense. Same as Snead is probably more of a 700-800 yds receiver in such an offense. Whereas in an offense that runs the ball 62% of the time, they’re both at about only 60% of their statistical capacity.

Whereas I think AJ Brown could be at around 75-80% capacity had he been within our offense.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

12 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Well only 46 QBs have thrown a pass so no that's not correct. Of qualified passers Lamar is tied for 23rd (of 33) at 4.6 yac/cmp.

This is where I got it from:

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/lamar-jackson/

It's receiver yac per target, where he's #50, but it's kind of a misleading label because "Receiver YAC per target" really means:

Quote

Average target separation for all running backs, wide receivers, and running backs receiving passes beyond the line of scrimmage

So it's not really the amount of YAC receivers get.

However, to your point there, yeah 23rd out of 33 is...uh...yeah...really bad. Thanks, Dave Culley!

[diamondbull424]

36 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

This is where I got it from:

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/lamar-jackson/

It's receiver yac per target, where he's #50, but it's kind of a misleading label because "Receiver YAC per target" really means:

So it's not really the amount of YAC receivers get.

However, to your point there, yeah 23rd out of 33 is...uh...yeah...really bad. Thanks, Dave Culley!

We all know whose fault this really is!!! ^^^^

Edited November 13, 2020 by diamondbull424

[AngusMcFife]

43 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

This is where I got it from:

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/lamar-jackson/

It's receiver yac per target, where he's #50, but it's kind of a misleading label because "Receiver YAC per target" really means:

So it's not really the amount of YAC receivers get.

However, to your point there, yeah 23rd out of 33 is...uh...yeah...really bad. Thanks, Dave Culley!

I don't get the hate for Culley. He's just a lifelong position coach. It's Roman's offense, he directs the position coaches. 

I don't think it's realistic that we would ever get an elite "passing game coordinator," that's not really a legit coaching position. If someone is a good candidate, they would just look to become an OC, not Greg Roman's errand boy. The time Roman and Morningweg split duties was a very rare situation. 

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, AngusMcFife said:

I don't get the hate for Culley. He's just a lifelong position coach. It's Roman's offense, he directs the position coaches. 

I don't think it's realistic that we would ever get an elite "passing game coordinator," that's not really a legit coaching position. If someone is a good candidate, they would just look to become an OC, not Greg Roman's errand boy. The time Roman and Morningweg split duties was a very rare situation. 

I agree with everything loudly, except this last line. Reason being is this is a pass first league nowadays. I think a guy like Greg Roman who is brilliant at constructing run games and improving OLs is very similar to a Gary Kubiak or Shanahan in that capacity. He’s someone that if he wasn’t an OC is likely to be in high demand as an OL coach or TEs coach and you’d want to attribute him an additional “title” and likely financial compensation to recognize his greatness to keep him around.

However, that being said... I do think that “pass game coordinators” that are worth their salt are actual offensive coordinators or head coaches. I think the title means a lot less for them. If you’re that good at chess, you’re called a grandmaster. No one aspires to a pass game coordinator position whereas I do feel the guys who can orchestrated great run games but suck at passing concepts have great value to this league and if they’re truly great the pinnacle of what they SHOULD be moving forward are run game coordinators. If they don’t have the ability to construct a creative or varied passing attack, then you probably want to move on from them as an OC.

It would be great to have a guy like Roman as a lifer coaching up the OL for a true mastermind to develop the passing components based around what Roman schemes. It’ll be both a shame as well as a welcome change when Roman eventually leaves to another team as a HC (though it’ll likely have to be college, considering the NFL has largely cooled on his prospects.)

[diamondbull424]

I might need to avoid the NFL Comparisons forum for a bit. The nonsense about Joe Burrow over Lamar Jackson for the next 10 years has finally reached critical mass for myself.

Dude hasn’t even had a superior season to Jackson this season, in Jackson’s down year, yet Jackson is faced with career prospects to be the next Colin Kaepernick and RG3 while Burrow could “be on a GOAT career trajectory as seen with Brady, Manning, Brees, and Rodgers. These people have absolutely lost their marbles. Burrow is quickly becoming one of the most overrated QBs in the NFL with how much people wax poetic about his potential for greatness.

Edited November 13, 2020 by diamondbull424

[sp6488]

5 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

I might need to avoid the NFL Comparisons forum for a bit. The nonsense about Joe Burrow over Lamar Jackson for the next 10 years has finally reached critical mass for myself.

Dude hasn’t even had a superior season to Jackson this season, in Jackson’s down year, yet Jackson is faced with career prospects to be the next Colin Kaepernick and RG3 while Burrow could “be on a GOAT career trajectory as seen with Brady, Manning, Brees, and Rodgers. These people have absolutely lost their marbles. Burrow is quickly becoming one of the most overrated QBs in the NFL with how much people wax poetic about his potential for greatness.

Haven't been in there. This is nuts.

[diamondbull424]

LOL. At them including last years Steelers game in there.