JAF-N72EX Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Raves said: How the Saints are Tier 4 based on DVOA rankings are beyond me. They have had arguably the most difficult schedule in the NFL and have looked good doing it, with a back-up QB. I think DVOA is a little overrated... First off all, and most importantly, DVOA should not be looked at as a way to currently measure any team until after week 8 when weighted DVOA replaces DAVE because until then a good percentage of the formula is still being calculated based on preseason projections (right now it's 45-55% of it and that will gradually get lower each week) and we all know how unpredictable this league is. Why people keep using it this early as a basis for their argument --for or against-- is beyond me. Quote As of Week 5, preseason projection makes up 45% of DAVE (55% for teams with four games). Because it is early in the season, opponent adjustments are currently at 50% strength. I can only assume it's because those people don't truly understand how it works. Most people only look at the rankings and very few look at the calculated numbers provided (which is the most important part). Even those who do look at the numbers very rarely take a deeper look at how those numbers came to be in the first place. -------------- I don't know which particular category you personally fall under but I'll try my best to break it down for you as to why the Saints are currently ranked as low as they are. For those who don't know, positive numbers are good for offenses and special teams and bad for defenses. Negative numbers are good for defenses and bad for offenses and special teams. Keep in mind on what I said above about looking at DVOA at this early in the season. That Saints being ranked 12th in team efficiency (+5.6%) right now is not as crazy as you may think--despite the 4-1 record. FYI, at this time last season the 2018 Bengals and Panthers were 4-1 and 3-1, respectively, and were tied for 11th with just a 1.8 difference from the 2019 Saints (+3.8%) and the 6-9-1 Packers were ranked 13th(+3.6%). RK TEAM TOTAL DVOA LAST WEEK TOTAL DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE DVOA OFF. RANK DEFENSE DVOA DEF. RANK S.T. DVOA S.T. RANK 1 LAR 39.10% 1 29.10% 1 5-0 38.50% 1 -0.80% 14 -0.10% 13 2 CHI 34.00% 2 11.70% 6 3-1 -2.20% 17 -31.50% 1 4.70% 6 3 KC 33.90% 3 19.60% 2 5-0 34.30% 2 13.30% 28 12.90% 1 4 NO 17.30% 11 16.80% 3 4-1 23.00% 4 6.50% 25 0.80% 10 5 LAC 16.70% 12 9.70% 8 3-2 24.40% 3 0.50% 18 -7.20% 31 6 BAL 16.20% 5 11.50% 7 3-2 1.90% 14 -15.90% 4 -1.50% 16 7 MIA 16.20% 6 7.00% 9 3-2 -2.90% 18 -12.40% 5 6.60% 5 8 JAX 14.30% 4 6.60% 10 3-2 -5.50% 22 -16.90% 3 2.80% 9 9 NE 8.20% 15 12.40% 4 3-2 11.30% 5 1.70% 19 -1.40% 15 10 PIT 7.00% 21 11.90% 5 2-2-1 8.80% 9 0.00% 16 -1.90% 18 11 CIN 3.80% 7 1.40% 15 4-1 10.20% 6 3.50% 20 -2.90% 23 12 CAR 3.80% 8 1.70% 13 3-1 4.10% 12 8.90% 26 8.60% 3 That said, the Saints total team DVOA is being dragged down right now in large part because of the teams performance as a whole against the Rams where they posted a -49.5% DVOA. Highlighted by a -47.0% DVOA on offense (-40.8% in pass and -36.1% in run) against a struggling defense. Total DVOA each week 13.5% -49.5% 13.7% 8.9% 31.2% Furthermore, the Saints run game has only posted a positive DVOA one time this season and that was week 1. That's terrible! Off Rush DVOA each week 13.7% -36.1% -23.1% -1.9% -13.5% Similarly, the defense as a whole have only managed to even post a negative DVOA just twice this year. That's terrible! Defense DVOA each week 29.4% 10.1% 13.1% -25.7% -9.2% The special teams (currently ranked 2nd with 6.5%) has been the only consistent part of the team thru 5 games and this shows up in the variance percentage where the Saints are currently 17th (9.5%) in the league. Last week vs this week The offense was ranked 27th in net yards per drive with -6.24 and that number climbed up to 16th (-012) The defense was ranked 25th in net yards per drive with +36.98 and that number climbed up to 17th (34.00) Despite the "improvement" from last week, the overall drive rate success for the defense is still 24th in the league with a .734. Meaning offenses have still been able to put together successful drives at a much higher rate than that of the league average. I hope this atleast clears up some of the (understandable) confusion. There was alot more I wanted to add to this but I jumped on here to late in the night and I'm working on something. Plus some of the informative stats that I wanted to provide here I won't without FO's consent, just out of respect for them and the site's rules. Edited October 9, 2019 by JustAnotherFan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raves Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 17 minutes ago, JustAnotherFan said: First off all, and most importantly, DVOA should not be looked at as a way to currently measure any team until after week 8 when weighted DVOA replaces DAVE because until then a good percentage of the formula is still being calculated based on preseason projections (right now it's 45-55% of it and that will gradually get lower each week) and we all know how unpredictable this league is. Why people keep using it this early as a basis for their argument --for or against-- is beyond me. I can only assume it's because those people don't truly understand how it works. Most people only look at the rankings and very few look at the calculated numbers provided (which is the most important part). Even those who do look at the numbers very rarely take a deeper look at how those numbers came to be in the first place. -------------- I don't know which particular category you personally fall under but I'll try my best to break it down for you as to why the Saints are currently ranked as low as they are. For those who don't know, positive numbers are good for offenses and special teams and bad for defenses. Negative numbers are good for defenses and bad for offenses and special teams. Keep in mind on what I said above about looking at DVOA at this early in the season. That Saints being ranked 12th in team efficiency (+5.6%) right now is not as crazy as you may think--despite the 4-1 record. FYI, at this time last season the 2018 Bengals and Panthers were 4-1 and 3-1, respectively, and were tied for 11th with just a 1.8 difference from the 2019 Saints (+3.8%) and the 6-9-1 Packers were ranked 13th(+3.6%). RK TEAM TOTAL DVOA LAST WEEK TOTAL DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE DVOA OFF. RANK DEFENSE DVOA DEF. RANK S.T. DVOA S.T. RANK 1 LAR 39.10% 1 29.10% 1 5-0 38.50% 1 -0.80% 14 -0.10% 13 2 CHI 34.00% 2 11.70% 6 3-1 -2.20% 17 -31.50% 1 4.70% 6 3 KC 33.90% 3 19.60% 2 5-0 34.30% 2 13.30% 28 12.90% 1 4 NO 17.30% 11 16.80% 3 4-1 23.00% 4 6.50% 25 0.80% 10 5 LAC 16.70% 12 9.70% 8 3-2 24.40% 3 0.50% 18 -7.20% 31 6 BAL 16.20% 5 11.50% 7 3-2 1.90% 14 -15.90% 4 -1.50% 16 7 MIA 16.20% 6 7.00% 9 3-2 -2.90% 18 -12.40% 5 6.60% 5 8 JAX 14.30% 4 6.60% 10 3-2 -5.50% 22 -16.90% 3 2.80% 9 9 NE 8.20% 15 12.40% 4 3-2 11.30% 5 1.70% 19 -1.40% 15 10 PIT 7.00% 21 11.90% 5 2-2-1 8.80% 9 0.00% 16 -1.90% 18 11 CIN 3.80% 7 1.40% 15 4-1 10.20% 6 3.50% 20 -2.90% 23 12 CAR 3.80% 8 1.70% 13 3-1 4.10% 12 8.90% 26 8.60% 3 That said, the Saints total team DVOA is being dragged down right now in large part because of the teams performance as a whole against the Rams where they posted a -49.5% DVOA. Highlighted by a -47.0% DVOA on offense (-40.8% in pass and -36.1% in run) against a struggling defense. Total DVOA each week 13.5% -49.5% 13.7% 8.9% 31.2% Furthermore, the Saints run game has only posted a positive DVOA one time this season and that was week 1. That's terrible! Off Rush DVOA each week 13.7% -36.1% -23.1% -1.9% -13.5% Similarly, the defense as a whole have only managed to even post a negative DVOA just twice this year. That's terrible! Defense DVOA each week 29.4% 10.1% 13.1% -25.7% -9.2% The special teams (currently ranked 2nd with 6.5%) has been the only consistent part of the team thru 5 games and this shows up in the variance percentage where the Saints are currently 17th (9.5%) in the league. Last week vs this week The offense was ranked 27th in net yards per drive with -6.24 and that number climbed up to 16th (-012) The defense was ranked 25th in net yards per drive with +36.98 and that number climbed up to 17th (34.00) Despite the "improvement" from last week, the overall drive rate success for the defense is still 24th in the league with a .734. Meaning offenses have still been able to put together successful drives at a much higher rate than that of the league average. I hope this atleast clears up some of the (understandable) confusion. There was alot more I wanted to add to this but I jumped on here to late in the night and I'm working on something. Plus some of the informative stats that I wanted to provide here I won't without FO's consent, just out of respect for them and the site's rules. I figured it was just due to a lack of adequate data as I'm a bit of a math nerd/logical thinker... which is partly true but the rest of what you posted just makes me realize this is just another flawed state, especially at this point of the year. Considering the offenses, the Saints defense has been top 5. The offense at the same time can be attributed to the back-up QB playing, though he's definitely performed extremely well against the Bucs, the rest I agree has been average. Also the run game will 100% suffer due to the other limitations of the offense. So like I said, just another flawed stat, at least for now. Regardless, it doesn't matter. Saints gonna win it all this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAF-N72EX Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, Raves said: Saints gonna win it all this year. If it's not the Bears, I hope so man. ANYONE but the Patriots at this point. Plus I'm a big fan of Brees and would like see him close out his career with another title. He deserves it after carrying that team for as long he has behind a defensLESS team. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 (edited) Going purely off feel this time (not stats, or using others' to build on). In my mind, 1 would beat 2, 2 would beat 3 etc I've got, at Week 6.... Patriots Saints Eagles Packers Chiefs 49ers Seahawks Rams Cowboys Bills Ravens Bears Panthers Colts Texans/Vikings Defensive teams 1. Patriots 2. Bills 3. Bears 4. 49ers Offensive teams 1. Chiefs 2. Ravens 3. 49ers 4. Rams/Cowboys MVP 1. Wilson 2. CMC 3. Mahomes Edited October 9, 2019 by Hunter2_1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlowe22 Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 17 hours ago, Raves said: I figured it was just due to a lack of adequate data as I'm a bit of a math nerd/logical thinker... which is partly true but the rest of what you posted just makes me realize this is just another flawed state, especially at this point of the year. Considering the offenses, the Saints defense has been top 5. The offense at the same time can be attributed to the back-up QB playing, though he's definitely performed extremely well against the Bucs, the rest I agree has been average. Also the run game will 100% suffer due to the other limitations of the offense. So like I said, just another flawed stat, at least for now. Regardless, it doesn't matter. Saints gonna win it all this year. Saints have also given up considerable garbage time points that drags the defense down. The defense has had three good/great games against Seahawks, Cowboys, and Bucs, but it's hard to tell looking at the score. The passing game hasn't really been great. It was solid week 1 and last week, but bad/mediocre the other weeks. The run game hasn't been that great either. Murray is quiet, Kamara hasn't been all that, and the oline has played terribly in at least three games. All this combined with the fact we have a backup QB starting, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see us ranked low by any metric. We also have a -1 point differential, despite being 4-1, primarily because we got blown out by the rams and gave up garbage scores to Seattle and Tampa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedTheClock Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 On 10/8/2019 at 9:52 AM, Danger said: Tom Brady has no business in the top 3 of the MVP race right now. He's played nothing but the easiest teams, and has had a defense that's made things a cake walk for him (not that he needs it, but that's not the point). He's also 12th in passer rating. He's gonna be in the discussion though. He's the best player on the best team. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danger Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 1 hour ago, BleedTheClock said: He's gonna be in the discussion though. He's the best player on the best team. But he's not the main reason they're the best team. The defense is. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedTheClock Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 6 hours ago, Danger said: But he's not the main reason they're the best team. The defense is. If I could take one player off the Patriots if I needed to beat them, It'd 1000000% be Tom Brady. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammymvpknight Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 10 hours ago, BleedTheClock said: He's gonna be in the discussion though. He's the best player on the best team. Yeah...and Brees is the best player on the Saints. It’s a really tough sell that someone is the MOST VALUABLE player in the league when that players team would very likely have the same result without them. The Pats schedule has been absolutely trash...one of the weakest 6 game opening seasons I can remember. You could put a college QB into that role and they’d very likely be no worse than 4-2. The same applies to the Saints...just a dominant team that is loaded with talent and will win without their best player. You take Mahomes off the Chiefs...I’m not sure they are a 0.500 team. You take Wilson off the Seahawks...I’m not sure they are a 0.500 team. Its currently a 2 man race in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammymvpknight Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 On 10/9/2019 at 2:05 AM, Raves said: I figured it was just due to a lack of adequate data as I'm a bit of a math nerd/logical thinker... which is partly true but the rest of what you posted just makes me realize this is just another flawed state, especially at this point of the year. Considering the offenses, the Saints defense has been top 5. The offense at the same time can be attributed to the back-up QB playing, though he's definitely performed extremely well against the Bucs, the rest I agree has been average. Also the run game will 100% suffer due to the other limitations of the offense. So like I said, just another flawed stat, at least for now. Regardless, it doesn't matter. Saints gonna win it all this year. Completely agree. Context is very important. A few huge limitations of DVOA is the lack of incorporation of strength of schedule and it doesn’t pick up on important trends. The Saints defense is significantly better with its stud DTs available. And it’s pretty clear that the Rams game was an outlier game...everyone was devastated by the loss of Brees...that game seeming tanked all of the season long stats for the Saints. the Saints offense hasn’t been great, but again...look at the competition. It’s really tough to say that the Patriots have a significantly better offense when one team has had the most challenging schedule and the other had the easiest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFlaccoSeagulls Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 On 10/9/2019 at 1:06 AM, Hunter2_1 said: Offensive teams 1. Chiefs 2. Ravens 3. 49ers 4. Rams/Cowboys This feels....un-natural. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 2 hours ago, sammymvpknight said: the Saints offense hasn’t been great, but again...look at the competition. It’s really tough to say that the Patriots have a significantly better offense when one team has had the most challenging schedule and the other had the easiest. which great defenses have the Saints faced? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammymvpknight Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, SBLIII said: which great defenses have the Saints faced? I was referring to the argument that DVOA had a significant role on the Saints relatively low power ranking. A significant part of that was because of the Saints offensive rushing DVOA. They ran the ball well in week 1 against the Texans. They were psychologically crushed against the Rams, the gameplan was completely destroyed after the Brees injury. They received a crazy -35+ grade that game, which is a significant outlier. Then they play the Seahawks who are a top 5 run defense. Then they play the Cowboys who were a top 10 run defense before Aaron Jones lit them up this weekend...a game that thus far has appeared to be an outlier to the Cowboys defense...and yet they are still an above average rush defense. Then last week they faced the Bucs, who have been the best run defense team in the NFL this season. Though the Saints run game has been a disappointment, and part of that is on the interior OL, I suspect that their opening schedule had at least some part in it. I'd be very surprised if the Saints don't improve in that department through a combination of lightening of the schedule and the eventual return of Brees. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedTheClock Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 5 hours ago, sammymvpknight said: Yeah...and Brees is the best player on the Saints. It’s a really tough sell that someone is the MOST VALUABLE player in the league when that players team would very likely have the same result without them. The Pats schedule has been absolutely trash...one of the weakest 6 game opening seasons I can remember. You could put a college QB into that role and they’d very likely be no worse than 4-2. The same applies to the Saints...just a dominant team that is loaded with talent and will win without their best player. You take Mahomes off the Chiefs...I’m not sure they are a 0.500 team. You take Wilson off the Seahawks...I’m not sure they are a 0.500 team. Its currently a 2 man race in my opinion. I agree with you that it's easily Mahomes and Wilson 1 & 2...but I don't think it'd be crazy for some people to say Brady is 3rd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammymvpknight Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said: I agree with you that it's easily Mahomes and Wilson 1 & 2...but I don't think it'd be crazy for some people to say Brady is 3rd. I wouldn't say it's crazy. It wouldn't be my choice. I'd definitely have CMac ahead of him...CMac and the running scheme in Carolina have been unbelievable. I'd take a guy breaking records at a skilled position over a QB who hasn't really been THAT important. Now if Brady lights it up over the 2nd half of the season against real competition...by all means. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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