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Broncofan

Week 2 GDT: CHI (0-1) @ DEN (0-1)

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Empower Stadium At Mile High

2:25 PM MT September 14th, 2019

Coverage: Fox (TBA)

 

CHI (0-1, 12-4 in 2018, 1st NFCW) DENVER (0-0, 5-11 in 2017, 4th AFCW) 

Line: CHI -2.5, O/U 40.5 on 9/11

2018 DVOA:  SEA (#5 overall - #20 on O; #1 on D; #9 on ST) DEN (#15 overall - #16 on O; #5 on D; #29 on ST)

DVOA Ranks: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2018/final-2018-dvoa-ratings

 

 

So @BullsandBroncos got his kick at the can, but with an L, time to start a new GDT...

Things to watch for:

 

1.  Our OL vs. their front 7 - with RT Ju'wan James out several weeks with a MCL sprain...well, no bueno.  Frankly, the only guy who won consistently was Risner (yay), but both our run game in the 1H, and our pass pro for the entire game, was just plain bad.  We got some momentum in the 3Q with the run game, but the context was that OAK had been out for the last 10 plays of the 1H, and then 15 of the next 18 plays in the 3Q.   So this is obv a more clear test of where our OL stands in the run game (and the preseason was pretty unspectacular when the 1st team was out there).   Ron Leary really looked awful out there last week.    The CHI front 7 isn't just Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith, they've got size, speed and depth.  We will be really tested.  And that matters because...

2.  Flacco in getting reads / ball out - there's a belief that Flacco wasn't so bad.  He wasn't the reason we lost - but he didn't get the ball out on time, or on location most throws.   The location wasn't there leading the runner when they were in flat, or in the numbers when they were sitting down, or back shoulder when they were in a seam with a defender in front.   I'll let @lomaxgrUK correct me when he looks at the All-22, but the lack of placement, and the long time in getting through reads, he won't have that luxury vs. the CHI front 7, and that attack secondary will pounce on late throws.  

3.  Our run D vs. the CHI OL - things aren't rosy on the CHI end, either.   HC Nagy has taken a ton of heat for playing RB Mike Davis over their rookie RB David Montgomery, and IMO rightfully so - Montgomery has a TON of juice.    If CHI is smart, they lean on Montgomery and the run game, as we had no answer for OAK's run game.    This is a big mismatch.    Holding our own here is crucial, because there's one area we have a potential advantage, it's...

4.  Our pass rush harrassing QB Mitch Trubisky into making mistakes - GB's week 1 win on the road happened simply because the D put 8 in the box, and dared Trubisky to beat them.  And he failed...miserably.  Honestly, based on his week 1 performance, you'd make a case his UNC degree is a complete fraud - since Tru showed no ability to read whatsoever.    Get some pressure, put him into 2nd/3rd and long, and let him make mistakes (sound familiar? Funny to be on the other end saying that after the last 3 years lol).     CHJ should be able to neutralize Allen Robinson II, so the real Q becomes...

5.  Their TE / WR2-3 & Tarik Cohen vs. Yiadom/Bausby/Jackson combo & our S/ILB's - sounds like Callahan's out a while - which really sucks, because Kareem Jackson was the only other guy who could cover anyone.   Yiadom isn't a lost cause at all by any means - but expecting him to bounce back for week 2 is a huge stretch.  Expect CB's De'Vante Bausby & Duke Dawson to get more playing time in practice, and then on Sunday in place of Yiadom all the time (Bausby had no snaps IIRC other than ST's, same with Dawson - understandable in Dawson's case, with team less than 1 week, but Bausby was a head-scratcher).   Now, CHI was short-handed as their best WR outside of A-Rob, Anthony Miller (#17) was only out there for 22 percent of the snaps, after missing the preseason; and their top move TE, Trey Burton (#80), missed the game entirely.  Both are practicing fully, so it seems like they'll be back - which is a huge plus for them, as they had guys named Braunhower, C-Patt & Taylor Gabriel being completely blanketed.   Sadly, if Miller/Burton play, I expect they will exploit, this, along with Tarik Cohen as their Swiss-Army knife weapon vs. our ILB/safeties.

6.  TO's and ST - we just have to be better in ST, and we have to win the TO battle, because CHI is simply a much better team than us on both sides of the ball.

7.  Coaching has to be fearless - we can't have repeats of not using our 3 TO's in our 2-min drill while we are at midfield.  We have to take some shots down the field to keep the D honest, it can't be in the 4Q (and that's what Flacco does well).   Of course our OL has to hold up enough to let it happen, but we can't just be super-dink and dunk, the CHI D will just jump our routes after a while.

The final implication - if we fight hard, better sign, no matter who wins.  If we get our doors blown off - then it's time for Elway to think about being a seller.   As it is, barring a TO-fest and a complete meltdown by Trubisky (again), I have to call it 23-16 CHI.    But still looking for progress from our O, and our young core....

 

 

 

 

Edited by Broncofan

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In case ppl missed it re: injuries...

James out at least a couple of weeks.  That indicates MCL.   That’s best case other than a bruise.   Likely 2-4 weeks and interior OL almost always lower end.  The RT spot a little iffier.   But Mack vs. RT  going to be ugly.  

Meanwhile Patrick to IR.   River Cracraft likely returns.  

 

 

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In past years  back half of 16-18  mobile qbs along with covering the tes rbs have been our Achilles heal as a defense iirc .

Trubisky is mobile which is my only big worry with him besides attacking the defense Via Cohen and the middle of the field. 

I'll be shocked if there's no pass rush at home. 

23 - 20 Chicago due to our lack of depth .

Edited by thebestever6

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I think we win this and it's an ugly one. September games in Denver are almost impossible for road teams to win and Fangio will have a lot to prove. 

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Our O line was a disaster vs sugar and stunt looks.  Free runners to QB all day as line blocked wrong guy time and again.  New center and no pre season snaps was probably to blame and it snowballed under pressure of first game and hype etc.   Guard just had his first baby and hasn't been focused on football methinks. 

Defensive line trickery isn't really Fangio's thing though so there's that in Bears favor.

Everyone figures Bears will gas in altitude in Sept. heat  like most do so a fast start is important for Bears.   

GB pressure destroyed MT ability to do anything and he became mentally deficient making him at his absolute worst and now people are screaming bust.  He looked like a bust.  They might be right, but I am reserving judgment until end of year.  I think there is still hope because he is a hard worker and does have some legit talent.  Sometimes you have days like that.   

Defense did not regress after every single person in media and outside Bears fandom said it would without their DC.  It may in fact be better.  Not sure why people thought Khalil Mack, Jackson, Hicks, Smith and company were all of a sudden going to suck with a different play caller.  That could be scary for a Denver team that is not stacked with talent and does not have a mobile QB.

So if you can pressure MT and gas the defense you can win.  The team is on a razor's edge and everyone is pressing due to media and fan pressure and people upset over game 1.

But if you give them confidence early, especially the offense, it could turn into an avalanche.  

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17-13 Broncos in this snoozer of a game. Bronco's D will bounce back against a poorly led Mark Helfrich(as a Duck fan, forever eff him) offense thanks to the familiarity of Fangs. We sack Trubisky 4 times and cause 3 TO's. 1 Flacco TD to Sanders and 1 short rushing TD from Freeman lead the way for the offense.

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Of course there's a chance I'll be proven wrong but I think Bears -2.5 at Denver in September is pretty nuts. And it's not at all reflective of how our season or the Bears season ends up, I would be stunned if we actually finished with a better record or even the same record. It's just a really bad matchup for the entire league, coming to Mile High in the first few weeks. I think the public overreaction to the Broncos loss is due to be corrected a bit this week. Tough to drop this one and stare down 0-3 and basically elimination at Green Bay next week. The one thing that has me weary is the huge rest advantage for the Bears. But I also think the Broncos will be fired up to turn it around quickly. 

Should be an intriguing game if you have an investment or appreciation for great defense, otherwise look away. Can't make special teams mistakes in this. I like the 17-13 Broncos prediction, agree with that. But need a relatively clean game, more than one turnover and it gets dicey. 

Davis practiced today. Ordinarily, not someone to be too excited about but Josey Jewell was cleaning up for Corey Nelson (in the system for all of a week) all night on Monday and Davis will be a plug-and-play upgrade to the run defense 

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2 hours ago, Joe_is_the_best said:

Slight correction: The game's at 3:25 CT

Noted...but that's 5:25 ET.  That can't be right, it's 2:25 CT (fixed).  And thx for the GDT salute (doesn't have to be as nice each week, but since I have the old template, easy to do)...

Edited by Broncofan

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1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

Of course there's a chance I'll be proven wrong but I think Bears -2.5 at Denver in September is pretty nuts. And it's not at all reflective of how our season or the Bears season ends up, I would be stunned if we actually finished with a better record or even the same record. It's just a really bad matchup for the entire league, coming to Mile High in the first few weeks. I think the public overreaction to the Broncos loss is due to be corrected a bit this week. Tough to drop this one and stare down 0-3 and basically elimination at Green Bay next week. The one thing that has me weary is the huge rest advantage for the Bears. But I also think the Broncos will be fired up to turn it around quickly. 

Should be an intriguing game if you have an investment or appreciation for great defense, otherwise look away. Can't make special teams mistakes in this. I like the 17-13 Broncos prediction, agree with that. But need a relatively clean game, more than one turnover and it gets dicey. 

Davis practiced today. Ordinarily, not someone to be too excited about but Josey Jewell was cleaning up for Corey Nelson (in the system for all of a week) all night on Monday and Davis will be a plug-and-play upgrade to the run defense 

To be fair, the line was pick 'em before we stunk up MNF.  Shows how reactionary ppl are.  I still like CHI because of the long rest and the big problems they pose for us; all the matchups go their way (except our pass rush vs. Tru/OL), and ST they have a huge gap on us too.  A DEN W is entirely predicated on Trubisky sucking completely.  Which...is possible. 

Edited by Broncofan

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14 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

To be fair, the line was pick 'em before we stunk up MNF.  Shows how reactionary ppl are.  I still like CHI because of the long rest and the big problems they pose for us; all the matchups go their way (except our pass rush vs. Tru/OL), and ST they have a huge gap on us too.  A DEN W is entirely predicated on Trubisky sucking completely.  Which...is possible. 

Their front 7 and special teams are the groups I think can potentially overwhelm us. Chicago's defense doesn't offer any glaring holes that make for obvious targets, but I think you have to attack those corners, because IMO they're solid but not special and under the right circumstances for an offense, can be taken advantage of. Fuller brings that ballhawk element you have to be careful about but he's not a shutdown guy in the traditional sense. If you can give Flacco enough clean snaps, our WRs can make a few plays in this matchup.

On the other side, Yiadom has to really compete and get physical with Allen Robinson. You can give some, but it can't be what we saw last week. 

Edited by BroncoBruin

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1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Noted...but that's 5:25 ET.  That can't be right, it's 2:25 CT (fixed).  And thx for the GDT salute (doesn't have to be as nice each week, but since I have the old template, easy to do)...

Central time is 1 hour before ET. It's 2:25 MT

Edited by Joe_is_the_best

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So I know it’s PFF... but I saw Risner was the top ranked LG after week 1. That’s encouraging 

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1 hour ago, Joe_is_the_best said:

Central time is 1 hour before ET. It's 2:25 MT

Brain cramp (using the old GD template, no idea why CST was there) lol.   I mean, really the only time zone that matters is EST.  xD   But fixed...

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