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Josh Allen [QB; Wyoming]


CWood21

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Watched a bit of his tape, saw some good, saw some bad, and mostly somewhere in between.  The talk of him as a top-5 pick is premature at best.  Just a few takeaways from the game.

0:33 - Left the pocket prematurely, no real reason to leave the pocket if pressure isn't in your face.  Had a receiver matched up on a LB I believe, and had he stood in there would have been an easy completion and likely 1st down.
0:42 - Stood well in the pocket, although he didn't really step up into the pocket.  Threw a dart in the right spot to a receiver for an easy completion with good velocity.
1:04 - Solid throw, but throws off his backfoot which creates a velocity issue.  Consistently stepping into his throws will help with this.
1:16 - Probably one of the better throws, and probably the epitome of when he's on.

I could keep going on, but it's pretty much the same.  Wanted to look at his two interceptions.

6:24 - Just a completely poor decision making on his behalf.  Throwing off his back foot and into contested coverage is rarely a good idea, and he got burnt for a big return.
7:34 - Under duress and completely lost track of the Iowa defender, this one is clearly on him.

Overall, it was a mixed bag of emotions for me.  You saw some good where he looked like a legitimate starting QB.  Other times he looked like a guy you draft as a developmental type late in the draft.  Most of it was somewhere in between.  I think I saw a Ben Roethilsburger comparison made a while back, and it's not a bad comp.  Big Ben was a bit more physical, but both had similar questions coming out.  Josh Allen needs a significant junior season if he wants to be a 1st round QB.

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I was huge on Allen last year, and big on him coming into the season. That opener against Iowa though was a total downer, and I haven't been able to hide my disappointment. I would have been find with him not having the best numbers, or struggling to move the ball provided that I saw some clean passes, good decision making, etc. I didn't see that in game one (his accuracy wasn't awful, looked better than in a lot of games last year, even for passes close to the LOS) and that's a major issue because those were the two biggest issues coming into the season. I need to see growth, and my projection of him as a quarterback prospect was based considerably on him showing that growth. He failed in his first attempt this year, and because of Wyoming's schedule, he won't have too many opportunities (with Boise St probably being the most notable as it's on the road). 

That being said, I'm not jumping off this bandwagon yet. Yes, if nothing improves throughout the season, it will effect my eval of him, but I'm still bullish on him for the time being. One, from a purely physical standpoint, he's good. Great arm, deceptively athletic. Things to like: he's familiar under center, running pro concepts and reading defenses (IE, he'll know what and where the MIKE linebacker is on the field lol). Goes through progressions, which is not always a given with college quarterbacks, and it's not always that is able to be learned as they head into the next level. He's not great at it, and the system still utilizes a lot of quick hitters and single reads, but there are times in his 2016 tape where you see him scanning the entire field, going trough multiple receivers.  Some quarterbacks simply won't process information that way. I think he's better throwing on the run than any other quarterback prospect this year. Fearless and will not hesitate to throw into windows that are pretty small, which is not always something spread system quarterbacks are willing to do or are capable of doing when their system isn't giving them good open looks. This right here is an amazing throw from last season:

 

There is a ton of positives with this kid...buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut....

There are a lot of negatives. His decision making is awful. I don't know if he gets frazzled and freaks out (hope not), or if he's just trying to force the action and put too much weight on his shoulders. The latter is bad, but not career crushing. The former is highly problematic if you're going to try and become a quarterback at the next level. The accuracy is sketchy at times, and the fact that he's struggling to hit 60% of his passes can be viewed as an issue moving forward. That being said, I think he has less adapting with regards to what kind of situations he's throwing the football into in comparison to say, Paxton Lynch when he was drafted. He could use a little more understanding of touch as opposed to power - he had quite a few catchable balls that were dropped or deflected last year, a couple of which ended up being intercepted. While those may be caught at the next level, there's no guarantee on that, and it helps to be able to make the receiver's job a little bit easier. He needs better awareness on where the defenders are, particularly in the middle of the field. He can lose track of defenders.  Mechanically? I mean, he's a college quarterback. You can seriously pick out some mechanical flaws on almost every quarterback that has come out in the last 20 years. Yes, he has some, but I don't find him to be a mess mechanically either. A little more grounded in the hips, stepping into this throws more consistently. So far, he's struggled quite a bit it seems to me on the road, and while college campuses can be rowdy and difficult to play in, you need to be able to show an ability to play on the road. 

I've been using Big Ben as my comp for him for quite some time on the positive side, but there's certainly not a small portion of his game that will scream Josh Freeman at times (or Deshone Kizer, tbh). 

That tape from Iowa was certainly pretty ugly, and there aren't many games that he can be impressive in o that schedule. I don't think that anyone will care if he balls out against Gardner Webb, but there will be better days ahead. 

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Got to watch him live against Eastern Michigan last year before he really broke out as a prospect, although I knew of him because of some people on twitter. He really didn't look like a great QB live. He obviously has a great arm and is a really solid athlete, but the makes a lot of mistakes and fails to elevate the team around him. I really think a team would be taking a huge and unnecessary risk if they draft him early.

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5 minutes ago, IDOG_det said:

Got to watch him live against Eastern Michigan last year before he really broke out as a prospect, although I knew of him because of some people on twitter. He really didn't look like a great QB live. He obviously has a great arm and is a really solid athlete, but the makes a lot of mistakes and fails to elevate the team around him. I really think a team would be taking a huge and unnecessary risk if they draft him early.

One day, someone will have to explain this particular bit of criticism to me. I don't understand it (not in regards to Allen, but prospects in general). It just seems like a way to knock someone in a way that doesn't allow for contrarian debate. It's so vague and undefined. It just seems like a catch all to to levy a criticism at a guy without anything specific attached to it. 

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15 minutes ago, Forge said:

One day, someone will have to explain this particular bit of criticism to me. I don't understand it (not in regards to Allen, but prospects in general). It just seems like a way to knock someone in a way that doesn't allow for contrarian debate. It's so vague and undefined. It just seems like a catch all to to levy a criticism at a guy without anything specific attached to it. 

It means he doesn't make the guys around him better. If a good NFL QB is playing at the college level, then he should be able to make lesser talents and lesser athletes look better than they are. Or he should make good talents and good athletes look great. He was joined by 4 NFL caliber players last year (Brian Hill, Chase Roullier, Tanner Gentry, and Jacob Hollister) yet he didn't really elevate their play. Instead, Hollister and Gentry seemed to bail him out quite often and they were able to lean on Brian Hill quite a bit when Allen wasn't being effective.

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4 minutes ago, IDOG_det said:

It means he doesn't make the guys around him better. If a good NFL QB is playing at the college level, then he should be able to make lesser talents and lesser athletes look better than they are. Or he should make good talents and good athletes look great. He was joined by 4 NFL caliber players last year (Brian Hill, Chase Roullier, Tanner Gentry, and Jacob Hollister) yet he didn't really elevate their play. Instead, Hollister and Gentry seemed to bail him out quite often and they were able to lean on Brian Hill quite a bit when Allen wasn't being effective.

Just seems a little chicken / eggish to me. How do we know a guy like Gentry even gets a real look by NFL teams if it were not for Allen? He doubled his receptions and yards and more than tripled his touchdowns  from his junior to senior seasons under Allen. He was the #1/#2 guy his junior season as well. I just don't know how that's evaluated. They went from 2-10 his sophomore season to 8-6 his junior season with a lot of the same parts and a harder schedule with the main difference being Allen. I'm just not sure what he's supposed to do to be considered a guy who "elevates the people around him". I would agree that at times he was bailed out by Gentry (that kid can really catch), but there are plenty of times where he's making a lot of stuff happen on his own, particularly when he's on the run. 

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Also, not saying the criticism isn't valid. Very well could be. I just don't understand it, so that could very well be on me. I don't know how its evaluated, and I don't know how to quantify it. Its something my mind just can't really process, you know?

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Just now, Forge said:

Just seems a little chicken / eggish to me. How do we know a guy like Gentry even gets a real look by NFL teams if it were not for Allen? He doubled his receptions and yards and more than tripled his touchdowns  from his junior to senior seasons under Allen. He was the #1/#2 guy his junior season as well. I just don't know how that's evaluated. They went from 2-10 his sophomore season to 8-6 his junior season with a lot of the same parts and a harder schedule with the main difference being Allen. I'm just not sure what he's supposed to do to be considered a guy who "elevates the people around him". I would agree that at times he was bailed out by Gentry (that kid can really catch), but there are plenty of times where he's making a lot of stuff happen on his own, particularly when he's on the run. 

When guys like Gentry and Hollister are making ridiculous catches that should be incomplete with the kind of ball placement he has, that's when they elevate his play and not the other way around. And that seemed to happen far too often. Allen was certainly an upgrade at QB for them, but I think it has more to do with the fit (Allen throws downfield a lot and Gentry/Hollister are best there) and his running ability (almost 650 yard difference from the previous QB). It's a lot easier to win games at the college level when your QB can avoid some negative plays (sacks) by extending the play. It's not like I'm trying to say Josh Allen is bad, but he certainly doesn't appear to be a franchise QB to me. He seems more like an exciting backup.

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11 minutes ago, IDOG_det said:

When guys like Gentry and Hollister are making ridiculous catches that should be incomplete with the kind of ball placement he has, that's when they elevate his play and not the other way around. And that seemed to happen far too often. Allen was certainly an upgrade at QB for them, but I think it has more to do with the fit (Allen throws downfield a lot and Gentry/Hollister are best there) and his running ability (almost 650 yard difference from the previous QB). It's a lot easier to win games at the college level when your QB can avoid some negative plays (sacks) by extending the play. It's not like I'm trying to say Josh Allen is bad, but he certainly doesn't appear to be a franchise QB to me. He seems more like an exciting backup.

That's fair. I guess I don't always view it in that spectrum. There's a touchdown catch by Gentry in that Boise game which is pretty great in the back of the endzone where he catches a rocket over a defender, and no doubt it's a great catch, but I'm also looking at it like there aren't many quarterbacks who are making that throw either. 

I think he definitely has the upside to be a franchise quarterback, but there's a lot of work to be done, no doubt about that. I am big on him, but I'll be the first to help point out the flaws, because there are a lot of them. 

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1 minute ago, Forge said:

That's fair. I guess I don't always view it in that spectrum. There's a touchdown catch by Gentry in that is pretty great in the back of the endzone where he catches a rocket over a defender, and no doubt it's a great catch, but I'm also looking at it like there aren't many quarterbacks who are making that throw either. 

I think he definitely has the upside to be a franchise quarterback, but there's a lot of work to be done, no doubt about that. I am big on him, but I'll be the first to help point out the flaws, because there are a lot of them. 

I just think it's important to pay attention to how the quarterback is benefiting from the players around him. If you watch Riley Ferguson play, he's got a similar skill set to Josh Allen but he doesn't get the hype because his WR's don't make ridiculous catches (they actually end up spoiling quite a few decent passes). Put him on a team with competent WR's and he's probably getting the same hype as Josh Allen.

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On 9/9/2017 at 0:30 PM, brownie man said:

overhyped by the media I love QBs with the traits that help them succeed at the NFL level, but even I don't see it with this guy. I'm not a fan I'd take Darnold Rosen adn Lamar over him

reminds me of Christian Hackenberg

He's definitely not Christian Hackenberg.  He's got the tools, he's just not someone who manages to take the tools and translate them onto the field.

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