2020 Draft thread

[lavar703]

9 hours ago, offbyone said:

The NFL draft history is a long sequence of mistakes, disappointments and missed opportunities.  I think it is a pretty factual statement.  Every draft is littered with them.  There is no such thing as a can't miss prospect.  

You said the best prospect in the draft rarely lives up to the hype. You can’t call this a factual statement without something to back it up. And no, I don’t agree with your statement at all. Hell, the last three drafts alone the best prospects were Garrett(17’), Barkley(18’) and Bosa(19’). Are you really going to tell me they haven’t lived up to the hype? I mean, in 2016 you had two guys who could’ve been the consensus best player in the draft in Ramsey and Bosa. Have they not lived up to the hype? 
 

I mean, you’d have to go all the way back to 2015 and Jameis Winston to find a guy who didn’t live up to the hype and I’d say his alarming amount of interceptions in his final season at FSU were a warning sign. But then 2014 you jump right back to Jadeveon Clowney who’s about to be one of the highest paid players in the league and is considered a game wrecker by many. I just don’t see the data backing your claim up. 

[HTTRDynasty]

Garrett going 10th in any redraft is a joke. 
 

 

[e16bball]

In fairness, I think @offbyone’s point is not that these aren’t really good players — it’s that the runaway hype train sorta inflates perceptions of how good they’re going to be, and it absolutely inflates perceptions of how much adding that one player will affect the team. I think that’s true, for the most part.

Using the examples we have here, the Giants have Saquon — and he’s great — but they’re still terrible. And they’re 23rd in rushing yards since drafting him, so it’s not like he’s even transformed that one particular aspect of their team. The Browns got Myles Garrett — also a great player — but they’re still a joke. They’re 21st in sacks and 24th in yards allowed since drafting him, so it’s not like their defense went to the next level when they got him. Joey Bosa? The Chargers sure stunk, even with him playing well, this season. Jadeveon Clowney wasn’t the best EDGE on his own team (JJ Watt) or in his own top 5 (Khalil Mack). 

Anyway, I think the point is that you can’t just assume that drafting Chase Young is the panacea for the football team. He’s probably going to be very good. You have to keep him healthy, though, and it’s a big leap to say that he’s sure to be a superstar. But the bigger point is that adding one player isn’t going to change the franchise’s fortunes alone. He could be a star, but it may not mean much if they don’t take steps forward behind him in the back 7 and especially on the other side of the ball. I think that’s why you have to at least consider the idea of trying to diversify and turn one asset into 3 or 4. 

I would almost certainly still end up drafting him. I don’t think we’re going to get offered enough to move off his pick. But I do think the point is well-taken, in that we tend to get sucked into the idea that drafting a top prospect will be “franchise-changing” — when it really isn’t, unless that prospect happens to be a QB. It’s just one (important) piece among many that need to be put into place.  

[lavar703]

2 hours ago, e16bball said:

In fairness, I think @offbyone’s point is not that these aren’t really good players — it’s that the runaway hype train sorta inflates perceptions of how good they’re going to be, and it absolutely inflates perceptions of how much adding that one player will affect the team. I think that’s true, for the most part.

Using the examples we have here, the Giants have Saquon — and he’s great — but they’re still terrible. And they’re 23rd in rushing yards since drafting him, so it’s not like he’s even transformed that one particular aspect of their team. The Browns got Myles Garrett — also a great player — but they’re still a joke. They’re 21st in sacks and 24th in yards allowed since drafting him, so it’s not like their defense went to the next level when they got him. Joey Bosa? The Chargers sure stunk, even with him playing well, this season. Jadeveon Clowney wasn’t the best EDGE on his own team (JJ Watt) or in his own top 5 (Khalil Mack). 

Anyway, I think the point is that you can’t just assume that drafting Chase Young is the panacea for the football team. He’s probably going to be very good. You have to keep him healthy, though, and it’s a big leap to say that he’s sure to be a superstar. But the bigger point is that adding one player isn’t going to change the franchise’s fortunes alone. He could be a star, but it may not mean much if they don’t take steps forward behind him in the back 7 and especially on the other side of the ball. I think that’s why you have to at least consider the idea of trying to diversify and turn one asset into 3 or 4. 

I would almost certainly still end up drafting him. I don’t think we’re going to get offered enough to move off his pick. But I do think the point is well-taken, in that we tend to get sucked into the idea that drafting a top prospect will be “franchise-changing” — when it really isn’t, unless that prospect happens to be a QB. It’s just one (important) piece among many that need to be put into place.  

I can understand that point of view but that’s not what was said. 

[Skins212689]

2 hours ago, e16bball said:

In fairness, I think @offbyone’s point is not that these aren’t really good players — it’s that the runaway hype train sorta inflates perceptions of how good they’re going to be, and it absolutely inflates perceptions of how much adding that one player will affect the team. I think that’s true, for the most part.

Using the examples we have here, the Giants have Saquon — and he’s great — but they’re still terrible. And they’re 23rd in rushing yards since drafting him, so it’s not like he’s even transformed that one particular aspect of their team. The Browns got Myles Garrett — also a great player — but they’re still a joke. They’re 21st in sacks and 24th in yards allowed since drafting him, so it’s not like their defense went to the next level when they got him. Joey Bosa? The Chargers sure stunk, even with him playing well, this season. Jadeveon Clowney wasn’t the best EDGE on his own team (JJ Watt) or in his own top 5 (Khalil Mack). 

Anyway, I think the point is that you can’t just assume that drafting Chase Young is the panacea for the football team. He’s probably going to be very good. You have to keep him healthy, though, and it’s a big leap to say that he’s sure to be a superstar. But the bigger point is that adding one player isn’t going to change the franchise’s fortunes alone. He could be a star, but it may not mean much if they don’t take steps forward behind him in the back 7 and especially on the other side of the ball. I think that’s why you have to at least consider the idea of trying to diversify and turn one asset into 3 or 4. 

I would almost certainly still end up drafting him. I don’t think we’re going to get offered enough to move off his pick. But I do think the point is well-taken, in that we tend to get sucked into the idea that drafting a top prospect will be “franchise-changing” — when it really isn’t, unless that prospect happens to be a QB. It’s just one (important) piece among many that need to be put into place.  

Well said, I'd add having a "Effective Game Changer" is the key. The QB effects the game in major ways. So if I can find a guy at a positon that can take away 3 players, I want him. Young is expected to get doubled team not trippled team witch just isn't enough to not make you think about getting 3 or more guys for him that will effect the game at multiple positions in multiple ways. Lawrence Talyor, Sean Talyor, Ed Reed, Darelle Revis, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, ect guys outside the QB position where I would definitely stay at #2 instead of considering trading with Miami for 3 first round picks or more. CeeDee Lamb, Xavier McKinney, Kenneth Murray are 3 Realistic players/positions you are passing on if Miami offers all their 1st round draft picks for pick #2.

Tua without injury is a better prospect than RG3. He's headed in the right direction health wise. Things keep going that way, who knows what's on the table come draft night? 

Edited February 12, 2020 by Skins212689

[MikeT14]

Let's just get crazy. Miami offers two firsts this year and swap their 1st for our 2nd the next 4. Sounds fun!

[turtle28]

Players coming out of college can't help that so called draft experts, talking heads and especially fans overhype them. 

Just take the best player with the highest natural pick you've ever held in a draft since I was born in 1979 and probably the decade before that too.

When's the last time the Redskins had a natural draft pick this high? Ernie Davis?

This is not rocket science folks. If you want more picks bc you have a lot of guys graded out the same, trade back in round 3 for an extra pick or two like we did in 2015 when we passed on Tyler Locket and others for Matt Jones, that worked out great didn't it??

Oh wait...

Edited February 13, 2020 by turtle28

[ripsean21]

2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Players coming out of college can't help that so called draft experts, talking heads and especially fans overhype them. 

Just take the best player with the highest natural pick you've ever held in a draft since I was born in 1979 and probably the decade before that too.

When's the last time the Redskins had a natural draft pick this high? Ernie Davis?

This is not rocket science folks. If you want more picks bc you have a lot of guys graded out the same, trade back in round 3 for an extra pick or two like we did in 2015 when we passed on Tyler Locket and others for Matt Jones, that worked out great didn't it??

Oh wait...

Lavar I think was this high. But yeah I’m taking Chase. I tend to stick to how I feel while games are being played. It’s Chase Burrow Simmons Okudah Wirfs that’s my player rank I don’t factor in positional value just player grades but I make the Chase selection

[turtle28]

50 minutes ago, ripsean21 said:

Lavar I think was this high. But yeah I’m taking Chase. I tend to stick to how I feel while games are being played. It’s Chase Burrow Simmons Okudah Wirfs that’s my player rank I don’t factor in positional value just player grades but I make the Chase selection

Lavar wasn't a natural pick - I’m saying when was the last time we picked this high bc we were so bad the year before - we traded up to get Lavar and Samuels wasn't a natural pick either. I think we got that pick through maybe the Sam Gilbert trade or something.

We almost went to the NFC Championship game in 1999, the Lavar & Samuels picks were not natural picks. They were acquired in trades.

Edited February 13, 2020 by turtle28

[MikeT14]

8 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Lavar wasn't a natural pick - I’m saying when was the last time we picked this high bc we were so bad the year before - we traded up to get Lavar and Samuels wasn't a natural pick either. I think we got that pick through maybe the Sam Gilbert trade or something.

We almost went to the NFC Championship game in 1999, the Lavar & Samuels picks were not natural picks. They were acquired in trades.

Something like that. LaVar came from the New Orleans Ricky Williams trade. We also traded our other two 1st rounders (one being from Sean Gilbert as turtle said) to move up to #3. 

[turtle28]

17 hours ago, Skins212689 said:

Well said, I'd add having a "Effective Game Changer" is the key. The QB effects the game in major ways. So if I can find a guy at a positon that can take away 3 players, I want him. Young is expected to get doubled team not trippled team witch just isn't enough to not make you think about getting 3 or more guys for him that will effect the game at multiple positions in multiple ways. Lawrence Talyor, Sean Talyor, Ed Reed, Darelle Revis, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, ect guys outside the QB position where I would definitely stay at #2 instead of considering trading with Miami for 3 first round picks or more. CeeDee Lamb, Xavier McKinney, Kenneth Murray are 3 Realistic players/positions you are passing on if Miami offers all their 1st round draft picks for pick #2.

Tua without injury is a better prospect than RG3. He's headed in the right direction health wise. Things keep going that way, who knows what's on the table come draft night? 

Umm... If Chase Young is getting double teamed that means Jon Allen, Payne, Ioannidis and Sweat aren't.

That helps our entire defense.

Also, you say ”IF” I can find a guy that takes 3 players away, I want him?

I don't know what that means.

Every pick in the draft or signing in free agency is a risk. Chase Young is a less risky draft choice then the players we’d get in a trade down.

Don't think so?

Ask the 2012 Rams, ask the Browns who traded down and passed on both Julio Jones & a QB a few drafts ago. There are other examples too.

It just doesn't make sense to pass on the best prospect in the draft.

[LoganF89]

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/redskins/real-or-fake-matt-stafford-trade-rumors-only-make-redskins-no-2-pick-more-valuable

could get really interesting if this happens which I highly doubt due to the dead cap, but his wifes instagram makes things pretty interesting.

best case scenario is that someone does want to trade for stafford and with detroit worrying about another team trading to #2 we could do a pick swap and get an extra 2nd or a 3rd. I dont think detroit would worry about the extra pick due to what they recieve for stafford but the question remains as to who would trade for him considering all the QBs in this draft and FA

[Skins212689]

1 hour ago, turtle28 said:

Umm... If Chase Young is getting double teamed that means Jon Allen, Payne, Ioannidis and Sweat aren't.

That helps our entire defense.

Also, you say ”IF” I can find a guy that takes 3 players away, I want him?

I don't know what that means.

Every pick in the draft or signing in free agency is a risk. Chase Young is a less risky draft choice then the players we’d get in a trade down.

Don't think so?

Ask the 2012 Rams, ask the Browns who traded down and passed on both Julio Jones & a QB a few drafts ago. There are other examples too.

It just doesn't make sense to pass on the best prospect in the draft.

Yes Young could help those players you named or those players could just be who they are. Jonathan Allen being the guy I'm a little concerned about the most, 3 seasons only 16.5 sacks I believe. Hoepfully the 4-3 and Rivera/Del Rio help improve that. As would adding Chase Young with more one on one matchups for Allen and those you named. Young by himself (same as Bosa in the Super Bowl) wouldn't have the same effect as surrounding a Franchise QB with multiple pieces on the OFFENSE and Defense when it comes to Wins aka a SuperBowl. 

Tua without injury is better than RG3. If offered 3 or more 1st round picks for the #2 pick I'm taking the deal and getting Deshawn Watson, Jonathon Allen, and a TJ Watt all in the same draft.  Yet this year it would be something like Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb, Xaiver McKinney, and Kenneth Murray. 

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, LoganF89 said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/redskins/real-or-fake-matt-stafford-trade-rumors-only-make-redskins-no-2-pick-more-valuable

could get really interesting if this happens which I highly doubt due to the dead cap, but his wifes instagram makes things pretty interesting.

best case scenario is that someone does want to trade for stafford and with detroit worrying about another team trading to #2 we could do a pick swap and get an extra 2nd or a 3rd. I dont think detroit would worry about the extra pick due to what they recieve for stafford but the question remains as to who would trade for him considering all the QBs in this draft and FA

They don't have to trade up to draft Tua. 

I just don't understand this idea at all as to why Detroit would want to trade up, unless they're doing so to get Chase Young.

Even if they are trading Stafford - which their GM has come out and shot down - they don't need to trade up to draft the injured Tua. They can stay put and keep their draft picks.

I think Detroit only trades up if they want Chase Young.

[turtle28]

57 minutes ago, Skins212689 said:

Yes Young could help those players you named or those players could just be who they are. Jonathan Allen being the guy I'm a little concerned about the most, 3 seasons only 16.5 sacks I believe. Hoepfully the 4-3 and Rivera/Del Rio help improve that. As would adding Chase Young with more one on one matchups for Allen and those you named. Young by himself (same as Bosa in the Super Bowl) wouldn't have the same effect as surrounding a Franchise QB with multiple pieces on the OFFENSE and Defense when it comes to Wins aka a SuperBowl. 

Tua without injury is better than RG3. If offered 3 or more 1st round picks for the #2 pick I'm taking the deal and getting Deshawn Watson, Jonathon Allen, and a TJ Watt all in the same draft.  Yet this year it would be something like Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb, Xaiver McKinney, and Kenneth Murray. 

Jon Allen only played 5 games his rookie year bc of a lisfranc injury to his foot and had 1 sack. He’s had 14 sacks his last 31 games played over the last two years.

He’s an interior DLineman who gets double teamed a lot by the center and guard. Most of those players don’t get double digit sacks. You can’t just look at sack numbers and determine if a player is a good DL or not, there is much more to the game then just the sack stat.

Allen has played 36 games and has 15 sacks. That’s about a sack every other game. That’s pretty impressive for an interior DLineman.

Of course defensive lineman doesn’t affect the game as much as a quarterback, they don’t touch the ball most games and certainly don’t have the ball in their hands every play like a QB. There’s no argument that the most important player on the field is a quarterback.

We have a quarterback why do we want Tua and his injured hip? I want nothing to do with him. We don’t know if he’ll ever be even as good as he was in college coming back off his hip injury.

There are 22 guys on a field at one time. Having a great pass rusher is huge on defense - this is not debateable. A big reason the 49ers made the playoffs is because they had Bosa added on their DL this year.

Garapollo is good, but not great, their passing game was trash this year outside of Kittle & when they traded for Emmanuel Samuels and they still got to the super bowl bc they could run the ball, and because of their defensive front 4.

I’m not taking the deal and passing on a prospect who is better then both Bosa brothers. 
 

We don’t know what any of these players in the draft will develop into. Passing on the best prospect in the draft for 3 guys who are good prospects but not great prospects is not working for the Redskins. We keep passing on the best prospects or never have a chance at getting them bc we are picking in the teens and then we wonder why we are mediocre??

Well there’s your answer!

Edited February 13, 2020 by turtle28