2020 Draft thread

[Skins212689]

5 minutes ago, tredaddy said:

You listed way more than 3 people from what I recall.  It's fine that you're trying to avoid the challenge, I won't push it.   I don't want to steering conversations away from the purpose of this thread so I'm going to join lavar703 and stop responding to you as well. 

So if I named more than 3, Seems I answered your question already. I actually thought Lavar was you, thats why I went back to edit what I wrote to Lavar. 

[offbyone]

26 minutes ago, tredaddy said:

Nick Bosa, Bradley Chubb, Myles Garrett, Joey Bosa, Dante Fowler

The first pass rushers taking in the past 5 drafts have all turned out to be studs.  Chase Young is unanimously a better prospect than all 5 

Well I was talking generally about the idea of can't miss prospects and particularly the top picks of the draft.

First of all, to be fair, I don't think we can judge draft results before 2017 draft at earliest, 3 years of play at least.

Until this year Fowler was a bust.  He certainly was a bust for the team who drafted him.  He had to change teams and play next to Aaron Donald to be a star.  Until I see a repeat year, I won't count him as a star.  The top 2 picks of the 2015 draft are busts- Winston and Mariota.  Cooper and Scherff look like elite players but you find just as elite players later in that draft like Marcus Peters.  

I will give you Joey Bosa.   And that 2016 draft was a rare draft where all the top 5 turned out to be stars.  But that is the exception not the rule.
2017 was loaded and Garrett was the top pick, but then you have Trubisky, Thomas, Fournette and Davis who are all good, but elite? Can't miss?  No.  It is later in that draft where you see those players- Jamal Adams, McCaffrey, Mahomes, Watson, TJ Watt.

Working back, 2014, you have Clowney and Mack at the top.  So I will give you that.  I would still hesitate to call them the best players in the draft.  You have to drop out of top 10 until you get Aaron Donald.

2013- The best player in the top 5 is probably Lane Johnson.  Good, but can't miss, not even close.  You have to go past the middle of 1st round for guys like Eric Reid, Eiffert, Rhodes and even those guys aren't perfect.  Towards the bottom half of first round you got Hopkins and Frederick who might be the true elite players of that draft.

2012-Top 2 can't miss prospects, Andrew Luck and RG3, both misses.  Luck retired, RG3 can't make it through a season healthy.  They both were very skilled and Luck showed he could do it for a few season, but neither could stay healthy.  You have to go outside the top 10 for guys like CHandler Jones and Fletcher Cox who are still having an elite impact in the league.

2011- Some top elite players like Miller, Newton, AJ Green and Peterson.  But there are just as elite outside the top players like Julio Jones, Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith and later outside of top 10 you have JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ingram.

2010- Sam Bradford bust other than his bank account.  Suh, McCoy, TW and Berry shine at top, but no more special than guys like Earl Thomas, Bryant and Pouncey.

I am not trying to say there aren't elite all-pro players at top of draft or that chase young will not be that guy, just that more times than not the best player is outside the top 5 picks and that can't miss prospect is a miss.  So I just think we should be open minded with history in mind.

 

 

[turtle28]

9 minutes ago, offbyone said:

Well I was talking generally about the idea of can't miss prospects and particularly the top picks of the draft.

First of all, to be fair, I don't think we can judge draft results before 2017 draft at earliest, 3 years of play at least.

Until this year Fowler was a bust.  He certainly was a bust for the team who drafted him.  He had to change teams and play next to Aaron Donald to be a star.  Until I see a repeat year, I won't count him as a star.  The top 2 picks of the 2015 draft are busts- Winston and Mariota.  Cooper and Scherff look like elite players but you find just as elite players later in that draft like Marcus Peters.  

I will give you Joey Bosa.   And that 2016 draft was a rare draft where all the top 5 turned out to be stars.  But that is the exception not the rule.
2017 was loaded and Garrett was the top pick, but then you have Trubisky, Thomas, Fournette and Davis who are all good, but elite? Can't miss?  No.  It is later in that draft where you see those players- Jamal Adams, McCaffrey, Mahomes, Watson, TJ Watt.

Working back, 2014, you have Clowney and Mack at the top.  So I will give you that.  I would still hesitate to call them the best players in the draft.  You have to drop out of top 10 until you get Aaron Donald.

2013- The best player in the top 5 is probably Lane Johnson.  Good, but can't miss, not even close.  You have to go past the middle of 1st round for guys like Eric Reid, Eiffert, Rhodes and even those guys aren't perfect.  Towards the bottom half of first round you got Hopkins and Frederick who might be the true elite players of that draft.

2012-Top 2 can't miss prospects, Andrew Luck and RG3, both misses.  Luck retired, RG3 can't make it through a season healthy.  They both were very skilled and Luck showed he could do it for a few season, but neither could stay healthy.  You have to go outside the top 10 for guys like CHandler Jones and Fletcher Cox who are still having an elite impact in the league.

2011- Some top elite players like Miller, Newton, AJ Green and Peterson.  But there are just as elite outside the top players like Julio Jones, Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith and later outside of top 10 you have JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ingram.

2010- Sam Bradford bust other than his bank account.  Suh, McCoy, TW and Berry shine at top, but no more special than guys like Earl Thomas, Bryant and Pouncey.

I am not trying to say there aren't elite all-pro players at top of draft or that chase young will not be that guy, just that more times than not the best player is outside the top 5 picks and that can't miss prospect is a miss.  So I just think we should be open minded with history in mind.

 

 

You can literally cherry pick a point like this with every single draft and draft picks in certain areas of the draft. It has no bearing on Chase Young or the players in this class. Every draft is different.

[tredaddy]

Listing out other positions 

12 minutes ago, offbyone said:

Well I was talking generally about the idea of can't miss prospects and particularly the top picks of the draft.

First of all, to be fair, I don't think we can judge draft results before 2017 draft at earliest, 3 years of play at least.

Until this year Fowler was a bust.  He certainly was a bust for the team who drafted him.  He had to change teams and play next to Aaron Donald to be a star.  Until I see a repeat year, I won't count him as a star.  The top 2 picks of the 2015 draft are busts- Winston and Mariota.  Cooper and Scherff look like elite players but you find just as elite players later in that draft like Marcus Peters.  

I will give you Joey Bosa.   And that 2016 draft was a rare draft where all the top 5 turned out to be stars.  But that is the exception not the rule.
2017 was loaded and Garrett was the top pick, but then you have Trubisky, Thomas, Fournette and Davis who are all good, but elite? Can't miss?  No.  It is later in that draft where you see those players- Jamal Adams, McCaffrey, Mahomes, Watson, TJ Watt.

Working back, 2014, you have Clowney and Mack at the top.  So I will give you that.  I would still hesitate to call them the best players in the draft.  You have to drop out of top 10 until you get Aaron Donald.

2013- The best player in the top 5 is probably Lane Johnson.  Good, but can't miss, not even close.  You have to go past the middle of 1st round for guys like Eric Reid, Eiffert, Rhodes and even those guys aren't perfect.  Towards the bottom half of first round you got Hopkins and Frederick who might be the true elite players of that draft.

2012-Top 2 can't miss prospects, Andrew Luck and RG3, both misses.  Luck retired, RG3 can't make it through a season healthy.  They both were very skilled and Luck showed he could do it for a few season, but neither could stay healthy.  You have to go outside the top 10 for guys like CHandler Jones and Fletcher Cox who are still having an elite impact in the league.

2011- Some top elite players like Miller, Newton, AJ Green and Peterson.  But there are just as elite outside the top players like Julio Jones, Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith and later outside of top 10 you have JJ Watt, Cameron Jordan, Ingram.

2010- Sam Bradford bust other than his bank account.  Suh, McCoy, TW and Berry shine at top, but no more special than guys like Earl Thomas, Bryant and Pouncey.

I am not trying to say there aren't elite all-pro players at top of draft or that chase young will not be that guy, just that more times than not the best player is outside the top 5 picks and that can't miss prospect is a miss.  So I just think we should be open minded with history in mind.

 

 

I think reviewing the first pass rushers of every draft instead of simply the top 5 is a better assessment in the kind of prospect we can expect from Chase Young.  
 

People hounding on Fowler when 4/5 are clear studs is a bit silly.  It does not get much more “can’t miss” than that.  My point still holds true.

[tredaddy]

29 minutes ago, Skins212689 said:

So if I named more than 3, Seems I answered your question already. I actually thought Lavar was you, thats why I went back to edit what I wrote to Lavar. 

I’m going to take this as you do not feel confident in your abilities to take the challenge.  I think I got what I wanted to see here, thanks.

[turtle28]

I didn’t like Flower as much as others in that draft as a pass rusher bc he primarily drafted at LDE. He didn’t overly impress me as a prospect.

[MikeT14]

1 hour ago, Skins212689 said:

No Rhodes wasn't

#FACTS: Rhodes was a Pro Bowler this year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Pro_Bowl

Defense[edit]

Position	Starter(s)	Reserve(s)	Alternate(s)
Defensive end	94 Cameron Jordan, New Orleans 97 Nick Bosa, San Francisco[d]	99 Danielle Hunter, Minnesota	97 Everson Griffen, Minnesota[a]
Defensive tackle	99 Aaron Donald, LA Rams[e] 91 Fletcher Cox, Philadelphia	97 Grady Jarrett, Atlanta	97 Kenny Clark, Green Bay[a]
Outside linebacker	55 Chandler Jones, Arizona 52 Khalil Mack, Chicago[e]	58 Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay	55 Za'Darius Smith, Green Bay[a]
Inside linebacker	54 Bobby Wagner, Seattle[e]	59 Luke Kuechly, Carolina

54 Jaylon Smith, Dallas^[a]
54 Eric Kendricks, Minnesota^[a] Cornerback 23 Marshon Lattimore, New Orleans^[e]
25 Richard Sherman, San Francisco^[d] 23 Darius Slay, Detroit
20 Jalen Ramsey, LA Rams 23 Kyle Fuller, Chicago^[a]
26 Shaquill Griffin, Seattle^[a]
29 Xavier Rhodes, Minnesota^[a] Free safety 32 Budda Baker, Arizona 39 Eddie Jackson, Chicago   Strong safety 22 Harrison Smith, Minnesota  

 

[MikeT14]

I give up trying to fix the formatting. 

[tredaddy]

Rhodes was awful last year.  Damn shame 

[Skins212689]

9 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

#FACTS: Rhodes was a Pro Bowler this year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Pro_Bowl

Defense[edit]

Position	Starter(s)	Reserve(s)	Alternate(s)
Defensive end	94 Cameron Jordan, New Orleans 97 Nick Bosa, San Francisco[d]	99 Danielle Hunter, Minnesota	97 Everson Griffen, Minnesota[a]
Defensive tackle	99 Aaron Donald, LA Rams[e] 91 Fletcher Cox, Philadelphia	97 Grady Jarrett, Atlanta	97 Kenny Clark, Green Bay[a]
Outside linebacker	55 Chandler Jones, Arizona 52 Khalil Mack, Chicago[e]	58 Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay	55 Za'Darius Smith, Green Bay[a]
Inside linebacker	54 Bobby Wagner, Seattle[e]	59 Luke Kuechly, Carolina

54 Jaylon Smith, Dallas^[a]
54 Eric Kendricks, Minnesota^[a] Cornerback 23 Marshon Lattimore, New Orleans^[e]
25 Richard Sherman, San Francisco^[d] 23 Darius Slay, Detroit
20 Jalen Ramsey, LA Rams 23 Kyle Fuller, Chicago^[a]
26 Shaquill Griffin, Seattle^[a]
29 Xavier Rhodes, Minnesota^[a] Free safety 32 Budda Baker, Arizona 39 Eddie Jackson, Chicago   Strong safety 22 Harrison Smith, Minnesota  

 

Ok you proved me wrong. I know for sure his play wasn't Pro Bowl worthy though. You could ask Viking fans that yourself. Saw plenty of times where he was getting beat just like Norman. 

[Skins212689]

44 minutes ago, tredaddy said:

I’m going to take this as you do not feel confident in your abilities to take the challenge.  I think I got what I wanted to see here, thanks.

No take it as We don't agree. I gave you more than 3 Pro Bowl caliber player's, yet your still not happy. I'm not understanding what more your asking for other than for me change my stance of trading the #2 pick for 3 1st rounders if offered over still drafting Young with that offer on the table. 

[MikeT14]

13 minutes ago, Skins212689 said:

I know for sure his play wasn't Pro Bowl worthy though.  Saw plenty of times where he was getting beat just like Norman. 

Also FACTS.

[offbyone]

1 hour ago, tredaddy said:

Listing out other positions 

I think reviewing the first pass rushers of every draft instead of simply the top 5 is a better assessment in the kind of prospect we can expect from Chase Young.  
 

People hounding on Fowler when 4/5 are clear studs is a bit silly.  It does not get much more “can’t miss” than that.  My point still holds true.

I think that is a good way of looking at it too.  And you are right there seems to be more of a success but far from all the time.  

I am all for drafting Chase Young, I just don't think he is the end all be all.  He could easily get an injury his first season and never be the same.

 

 

[turtle28]

29 minutes ago, offbyone said:

I think that is a good way of looking at it too.  And you are right there seems to be more of a success but far from all the time.  

I am all for drafting Chase Young, I just don't think he is the end all be all.  He could easily get an injury his first season and never be the same.

 

 

As could anyone we draft or sign in free agency. Again, as I’ve said dozens of times. The point of the draft is to draft the best prospects you can and then build around the talent you draft or help them build around other talent you’ve acquired. I think you should only trade down if there are a bunch of players who you have graded out equally and you feel you can trade back and still acquire one of those other players you have with similar grades.

In the case of the Chase Young, that isn’t true. If we pass on him, he’ll go to the Lions or even worse the Giants and haunt us for a decade plus. I don’t see any players with a grade near his in this draft. There’s no reason to trade back that makes sense to me.

[offbyone]

2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

You can literally cherry pick a point like this with every single draft and draft picks in certain areas of the draft. It has no bearing on Chase Young or the players in this class. Every draft is different.

I didn't cherry pick though, I went through the last decade of drafts that we can pass judgement on.  History paints a clear picture, there is no sure thing and the best players generally don't come from the top 5 of the draft.

@tredaddy made the point of if we focus on pass rushers alone that the results are better at the top of the draft, but even there it is far from a sure thing.

29 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

As could anyone we draft or sign in free agency. Again, as I’ve said dozens of times. The point of the draft is to draft the best prospects you can and then build around the talent you draft or help them build around other talent you’ve acquired. I think you should only trade down if there are a bunch of players who you have graded out equally and you feel you can trade back and still acquire one of those other players you have with similar grades.

In the case of the Chase Young, that isn’t true. If we pass on him, he’ll go to the Lions or even worse the Giants and haunt us for a decade plus. I don’t see any players with a grade near his in this draft. There’s no reason to trade back that makes sense to me.

You could be correct.  The data we have points towards him being an elite pass rusher.   But he could still end up getting hurt and never live up to his potential and we later find out miami offered us all their first round picks and we could have had multiple all pro players OR Chase Young could be a generational player but we get 2 perennial pro bowlers and a solid starter instead and Montez Sweat turns into a star and so it ends up being a good situation in the end.

The point and literal fact is that there is no exact right or wrong here and we got likely 3 years before we will know.