BDL 2019 Week 2 - New Orleans Jazz @ Portland Horned Owls

[SirA1]

BDL 2019 Week 2

Match:  New Orleans Jazz @ Portland Horned Owls

Away Owner: @WFLukic

Home Owner: @SwoleXmad

   

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

[SirA1]

New Orleans Jazz

Offense:

QB: Josh Allen
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
WR1: Michael Thomas
WR2: Tyler Lockett
WR3: Sammy Watkins
Slot WR/TE: Zach Ertz
LT: Andrew Whitworth
LG: Joel Bitonio
C: Travis Frederick
RG: Kevin Zeitler
RT: Riley Reiff

RB2: Devin Singletary
RB3/WR: Duke Johnson
TE2: Tyler Kroft
WR4: Paul Richardson
WR5: Parris Campbell
OL6: Bobby Massie
OL7: Justin Pugh
OL8: Connor McGovern

Defense:

DE: Nick Bosa
DT: Calais Campbell
DT: Geno Atkins
DE: Olivier Vernon
LB: Josh Allen
LB: Danny Trevathan
CB: Stephon Gilmore
CB: Kyle Fuller
CB: Chris Harris Jr.
SS: Micah Hyde
FS: Darnell Savage

DT3: Marcell Dareus
DT3: Sheldon Richardson
DE3: Chase Winovich
LB3: Denzel Perryman
LB4/S3: Tony Jefferson
S4: Haha Clinton-Dix
CB4: Justin Coleman
CB5: JC Jackson

Portland Horned Owls

QB1: Patrick "MVP" Mahomes II
RB1: Christian "McAfee" McCaffrey
WR1: Davante Adams
WR2: Mike Williams - (Q)
WR3: Marvin Jones
TE1: David Njoku
LT: Laremy "BongGate" Tunsil
LG: Will Hernandez
C:  Matt Paradis
RG: Andrew Norwell
RT: Alejandro Villanueva

Reserves:

QB2: Jacoby "Biscuit" Brisset.
RB2: Peyton  Barber
RB3: Gus "The Bus" Edwards
WR4: John  Ross
WR5: KeeSean Johnson
TE2: Will Disly
OL6: Ben Jones
OL7: Kelvin Beachum

Portland's 4-2-5 Defense:

DE: Dee Ford
3T: Kawann Short
DT: Michael Pierce 
DE: Whitney Mercilus
WLB: Jayon Brown    
MLB: Blake Martinez
CB1: Desmond Trufant
CB2: Logan Ryan
SCB: Marcus Maye
FS: Shawn Williams
SS: Malcolm Jenkins

Reserves:

SLB: Zach Brown 
RLB: Clay Matthews
CB4: Nate Hairston    
CB5: Duke Dawson
S3: Daniel Sorensen
DE3: Vic Beasley
DT: DaQuan Jones
DL: Hassan Ridgeway

Edited September 15, 2019 by SirA1

[SirA1]

New Orleans Jazz

Offense:

As we did last week, we’re going to start off by acknowledging that our success on offense starts up-front with our offensive line and getting on the front foot with an aggressive, power running game allowing us to control the clock, build momentum and have our pass-rushers tee off. In particular, knowing that Mahomes is on the other side means it is imperative that we limit his opportunities to get after us.

Following an extremely impressive debut, Singletary will carve out a bigger role as our change of pace back. While Zeke of course will lead the line with around 15-20 carries, Singletary should get between 5-10 and a few looks in the passing game too.

Duke Johnson will serve as primarily as our 3^rd down back, with a view to be mostly involved in the passing game. His usage won’t be limited to the backfield however, as Portland’s diminished secondary will stretched out and Johnson will be used in the slot fairly often too.

The run game will be heavily based on going inside and towards Dee Ford and Kawann Short on the left side, running behind the combination of Whitworth, Bitonio and Frederick. While Ford is listed at 250lbs, it’s common knowledge he plays lighter and is a huge liability in the run game and that is where we’re going to target our efforts, especially considering none of Portland’s linebackers are particularly great against the run either. Additionally, Portland’s interior is Short and a bunch of guys who can’t do anything but clog the run. While Short is a strong run defender, tiring him out will go a long way to limiting his effectiveness as a pass-rusher, which we’ll discuss later.

While I’ve spoken at length about the running game, knowing that this could very well become a shootout against Mahomes, we’ve come with a plan to sling it too.

Firstly, Zach Ertz will line up as a wide-out for the most part. We have comfort doing this knowing that either two things will happen:

1)      Given he’ll have more space than usual, it is likely a defensive back will need to follow him out there. In this case, with Ertz’s size advantage, we’ll look to have jump balls tossed across to him or slants where he’s able to use his body to outmuscle the defensive back; or

2)      A linebacker will follow Ertz. None of Portland’s linebackers are capable of covering him, so we’ll have Ertz run a number of routes downfield if in an LBs coverage, with the intention for Allen to keep things alive and ensure he can hit Ertz when he eventually gets open.

As with last week, we intend to use Allen as a runner on designed run plays quite often. In particular, the QB draw will be a huge feature of our offense. This is because we know that our interior OL will prevent any push from Portland’s poor interior DL (excluding Short) while our tackles will make an effort to prevent pressure beating them on the inside, and instead using their edge rusher’s speed, in particular Ford’s, to push them around the pocket. It will look something like this:

The other big point is that we will go 4 or 5 wide often. This will include Johnson going into receiver, or a combination of Richardson or Campbell coming in as the 5^th. Why are we doing this? Because Portland is completely shot at cornerback. Currently, the only CBs who are playing for Portland are Logan Ryan and Desmond Trufant. The rest are either bench fodder who play no snaps, or inactive.

Considering Portland will likely have only 3 CBs active, and as mentioned above only 2 playing snaps, we plan to go after whoever else is tasked with covering our receivers.

If Michael Thomas is kept in single coverage, we’ll continue to eat that up all day. Likewise if Watkins gets a 1v1 against some scrub cornerback, he’ll be the go to guy. With Allen’s rocket arm, Lockett will continue to run deep and will be joined by Campbell or Richardson when they’re on the field.

Defense:

We’re going light up top and we’re going to sell out against the pass. Only teams who are able to generate pressure without blitzing have been able to limit Mahomes (namely the Jags last season, the Broncos and Chargers to an extent) and we believe we have the defensive line capable of doing so.

We absolutely love the matchups of Campbell and Atkins against their interior and we intend to have both be relentless in getting after Mahomes, with Dareus subbing in on earlier downs and more obvious running downs while Richardson will spell them both where necessary and continue to provide a strong interior rush.

Allen will reprise his LEO role from last week, being able to line up anywhere as a free pass rusher, or a blitzer and have one goal in mind, which is getting after Mahomes. Bosa and Vernon should play the majority of the snaps on the edge and if necessary, will be spelled by Allen who will move to the edge as another off-ball LB comes in, or by Richardson/Campbell in our heavier fronts.

We’re not too concerned with Portland’s interior ground game and as such, we’re going with a lighter front knowing that McCaffery’s greatest threat to us is breaking it outside for a gain rather than busting through the middle. Additionally, we know he’s potentially going to be a factor in the passing game as so Micah Hyde will be tasked with following him around.

Trevathan will be tasked with covering Njoku along with Jefferson as they rotate.

In terms of Portland’s WRs, Gilmore will erase Williams from the game while Fuller will take Marvin Jones and Chris Harris Jr. takes Adams. While Adams is on the cusp of becoming an elite receiver, we’re confident CHJ can control him and win as much as he loses.

Lastly, Savage will operate as our single high safety, acting as a blanket for any deep balls which I’m sure Portland will attempt to John Ross given his breakout.

 

Portland Horned Owls

Motivation: It's week 2 of the BDL season and we're currently undefeated, the longest winning streak in Portland's history continues as we're set to take on the New Orleans Jazz. We'll keep it short and simple, we're here to win this game and prove we're among the best in BDL and that starts by beating a Juggernaut. 

Portland Offensive Gameplan: We're going to start this game out by analyzing the tape from the OKC vs. NOLA game and see what worked for OKC and what didn't and given OKC won we'll be taking a lot of notes, NOLA's biggest weakness on defense is their back seven and while it has solid players at all levels it lacks the depth at the LB/CB/S positions and we'll look to take advantage of that, specifically by using McCaffrey as much as possible (expect 25-30 touches for him) to try and get him matched up on a LB/S. We'll also be shying away from OKC's approach of an air raid offense and focus on using the running game and the intermediate passing game as our main methods of moving the rock. 

Formations: The obvious ones and depends on the situation/down & distance. | Scheme:  Pass 55% compared to run 45%

The Passing Game: As you're going to hear a lot this season in BDL, Patrick Mahomes is the MVP and is one of the best signal callers in the NFL and thus he will be given full command to make audibles along with making adjustments as required to effectively use our players to the best of their talents. Now let's start with the match ups, I expect Adams will draw Gilmore's coverage and since we have a plethora of other weapons I doubt he draws double coverage but if he does we'll focus our efforts on our other weapons to take advantage of NOLA's misuse of resources, Adams will also primarily line up in the slot forcing Gilmore to cover him there while our bigger WRs work outside against smaller CBs on the off chance Gilmore doesn't follow him and Adams gets matched up against Harris we are confident he can win that match up. Mike Williams is questionable with a knee injury and if he does suit up he'll be the no.2 WR, if he doesn't Marvin Jones will move up to the no.2 WR position with Ross manning the no.3 position, after a breakout week 1 game from Ross (7-158-2) he will be a lot more involved and will be our primary deep threat. Ross depending on where he plays will receive a few deep shots to keep NOLA's defense from locking in on the running game. Obviously McCaffrey will be a focal point of the passing game, he should command at least 8 targets and get at least 25 touches. David Njoku is a solid TE and will be used as a checkdown/safety blanket for Mahomes as well as being the main endzone target if Williams doesn't suit up. (Ala Jackson and Mark Andrews) As for who we'll be attacking, we'll try and target Tony Jefferson's coverage because as a ravens fan I can personally vow he couldn't cover up a lamp let alone a WR/RB/TE. Our main focus of attack will be NOLA's LBs who are without a doubt their weakest unit on defense, Trevathan is an OK LB and used to be quite decent until he became a journeyman/injured and there's Josh Allen who is currently playing QB as well as LB. We'll also use 4 wide looks on occasion to spread them out a bit this will be rare but when we want to shake up their coverage we'll go 4 wide (Sometimes with McAffrey, Sometimes with Njoku etc.) we'll also use a decent bit of play action here and there once the run game has been established, as for protection adjustments we are confident in our o-line but Mahomes will adjust the protection if NOLA shows blitz, or if any one defender demands extra attention. We'll leave a RB/TE in to chip/block as needed on occasion as well.

The Running Game: McCaffrey will of course be receiving the majority of the carries but to keep him fresh we'll mix in Barber/Gus to keep him fresh (expect an 85:15 split) and given McCaffrey is used to roughly 30 touches a game he'll handle his workload. As we've said the running game will be used often to help keep NOLA's pass rush in check as well as help set up the pass. Mahomes will roll out on occasion via bootleg or play action scramble, don't expect Mahomes to run much but he is capable of that if we find NOLA isn't prepared for it. 

The Blocking Unit: We'll execute blocking assignments as necessary and have full confidence in our protection schemes vs. one of the most dominant DLs in BDL, our o-line is one of the best units in BDL and we expect them to win their match ups. In a pinch Ben Jones will plays C, Beachum plays OT, Kline plays OG etc. 

TDLR; Attack NOLA's LBs along with Jefferson's coverage, Use McCaffrey as the engine of the offense, Dominate TOP, Control the LOS, Make plays when we need to, move the chains, limit turnovers etc. 

Portland Defensive Gameplan: Man coverage with safety help on occasion, even split on defending the pass and run, get after the QB, keep Elliot and co in check, win at the LOS, don't blitz, force turnovers. 

Formations:  4-3 [Base Defense] / 4-2-5 [Nickel] along with other various formations that depend on down&distance&situation| Scheme: 60% man to 40% Zone coverage, Cover 1, Cover 3 etc. 

Pass Coverage: After last week's snafu along with some injuries in the secondary we'll be adjusting our secondary a bit compared to last week, we'll mostly be playing man coverage and as for the coverage assignments for this game. Desmond Trufant will shadow Thomas, even into the slot. We do expect NOLA will keep Watkins in the slot for most of the game and our the CB assigned to Watkins/the slot CB will cover him depending on the play and Trufant will receive occasional help over the top depending on various factors, but obviously down&distance&situation determine this. But we feel confident Trufant can keep Thomas in check and limit him for all four quarters. Logan Ryan will be our no.2 CB and he will primarily cover Sammy Watkins, yes I expect Sammy to primarily be in the slot and Ryan is very used to that given he's a former slot CB turned shutdown no.1 CB for the Titans, Marcus Maye will man whoever is left and that looks to be Tyler Lockett who while fast couldn't catch a cold in the artic if he was buck naked and while Maye is traditionally a safety he's often used as a nickelback so he should be able to handle Lockett. Shawn Williams will be the FS replacing Reshad Jones who is out this week and will make adjustments to the coverage if need be, he'll be the deep FS for most of this game. Malcolm Jenkins will be tasked with being the SS who plays deep/covers Zach Ertz/plays in the box, Jenkins will basically do whatever is required depending on the play. As for who our no.4 CB will be that is Nate Hairston who we admit is a scrub but he won't see significant snaps and NOLA's bench WRs are garbage so eh, in no way will he be assigned to Lockett/Watkins/Thomas. There is no denying NOLA has an elite group of play makers but they're not exactly deep at WR or TE so I don't expect them to trust Josh Allen the QB/LB to win them this game through the air, that's where Elliot and Johnson come in, Johnson I expect will be the 3rd down back and be a decent contributor in the passing game so we'll be ready for him and Elliot. I don't expect NOLA to take any deep shots because of Allen's limitations as passer acknowledged by themselves last week, so we'll focus on the short/intermediate area of the field and bait Allen into making risky throws with some disguised coverage. It also helps NOLA's best QB has Mono and is out this week so lucky us, I'll fully admit they have some advantages in the passing game here but the man throwing them the ball plays LB. 

Front Seven/Run Defense: This is where this game will be determined, it all depends on winning at the LOS and controlling the trenches on both sides of the ball here there is no denying NOLA boasts an excellent interior o-line unit along with a decent set of tackles, we trust our front seven to be able to handle Elliot+Johnson+Allen in the running game, it sucks we lost Jackson to an injury this week but Pierce is probably the better defender anyway given he's a top 3 NFL run stopper. Ford+Short+Pierce+Mercilus form one of the best d-lines in BDL and should be able to handle NOLA's o-line fairly well and free up our LBs to make the plays they need to. Elliot+Johnson are formidable duo of RBs along with Allen and his scrambling ability but our LBs are more than capable of stopping them, Javon Brown draws the start at WLB and has quickly proven himself to be one of the Titan's best young LBs, meanwhile field general Blake Martinez will be our defensive signal caller as well as the man tasked with spying Josh Allen and no he won't be doing this on every play but he will do this fairly often on running downs (roughly 30% of snaps) we'll get after the QB as well but we won't be blitzing often (maybe 15% of the snaps on) but we will play disciplined football and stay in our lanes. Elliot will obviously be the main chain mover for them so of course our defense will focus in on the running game, but we won't stack the box because of their play makers on the outside. We'll rotate our DL+LBs+DBs etc as necessary to keep them fresh and change person ell for coverage/schemes/situations as needed. 

The Pass Rush: I mean Allen is a 2nd year QB/LB with issues being a consistent passer, I expect he still has a fear of the pass rush like every young QB does and we'll take advantage of that by hitting him when possible (Obviously legal hits when he's a runner and when he holds onto the ball too long like he tends to do) I expect our edge rushers will be able to get some pass rush going against Whitworth who is going on 40 at this point along with Riley Reiff, probably the worst RT in BDL so I expect they'll mostly try to run behind their interior right into the strength of our defense.

TDLR; Play good defense, control the LOS, dominate the running lanes, force turnovers, get after the QB, don't blitz often, contain Allen and the running game, play smart football, mind the down&distance etc. 

Summary: This is going to be a very interesting game because while NOLA has a fantastic team overall, do you really trust Josh Allen the QB/LB more in what is likely to be a defensive struggle then Patrick "MVP" Mahomes? I really don't want this game to boil down to "MVP QB vs. LB who plays QB" but it's worth pointing out. I'd say our talent is about equal overall with our team being more balanced while they have a bit more star power. I wish Lukic the best, now get ready to lose another close one and if you don't lose, I demand a recount because I didn't "GIFT" the refs timeshares in Detroit for nothing. 

Edited September 15, 2019 by SirA1

[Xmad]

Did not expect Lukic to trust Josh Allen to win this on his arm but I guess he was forced into it. 

[Scoundrel]

Jazz including an illustration. Plus one point.

[WFLukic]

Haha I drew a play up against Rome last season as well. It was a super funky 3 TE play action if I recall correctly.

Pretty sure I boomed Bcb that game too, even if he got the last laugh in the playoffs

[Whicker]

Oh my goodness Xmad’s writeup

[VigilantZombie]

Both writeups are impressive, both teams have really good defenses and honestly both have really good offenses. I could care less about big names, but what I do care about is experience in key situations. For me, there is one big difference in this game. One plan is easier said than done, where I think the other I'd entirely possible.

I'm going to give the nod to Portland. Mahomes finds a way, it's been proven that he can be slowed down and in week one he was hobbled but when it comes to the ability to make his receivers better, regardless of who they are, Mahomes has proven to have that ability. Josh Allen has not yet earned that trust. 

24-17 Portland in a defensive gameplan that gives Mahomes the ball last.

[TedLavie]

I've tried to stay away from the "Josh Allen can't possibly beat Patrick Mahomes" as much as I can but there's no doubt that NO needs a vast advantage to prevail here, especially on the road. They came close but for me they made one mistake which is starting the other Josh Allen at LB.

NO has the CBs to take Portland WRs almost out of the equation. I say almost because I saw Mahomes this weekend throwing darts 40 yards down the field to perfectly covered guys so I can't say those WRs will be shutdown. But Gilmore Fuller and, to a lesser extent, CHJ will at the very least slow down those weapons. I think Njoku can get it going against Trevathan, but the matchup I like a lot is McCaff vs Hyde. Hyde is a good safety but I think putting him in single coverage vs a heavily targeted McCaff is not a good idea. Plus, with an extra blitzer in his face, it's likely Mahomes will look at McCaff as its primary target. I think McCaffrey has a 200+ yds game (rushing & receveing combined)

On the other side there are a couple of things I would have done differently on both sides. FIrst, playing man when you have 2 adequate corners is dangerous and I believe Thomas, Lockett and Watkins make Portland pay a bit. Obviously I'm not sure Allen is fully capable of exploiting consistently those matchups but I think the Jazz passing game will be decent. Ertz vs Jenkins, I'd give the advantage to Ertz but again I don't think Ertz completely explodes in this one. However, putting Ertz outside creates an issue for the Jazz running game as it's 6 vs 5 in the box and there's no extra blocker for them. Now Portland DL isn't deep, especially outside so I can see Zeke breaking some decent runs. But I still think NO is missing a TE than can block which would make their team a bit better.

 

So overall, while I think NO is the better overall team and has some success on offense, I think Portland does just enough to prevail here. 24-23 in a game that maybe would have gone the other way if this was in Louisiana.

[Scoundrel]

Mahomes be a stud but Jazz have a sexy team 

[Jlash]

So why is exactly is Josh Allen (the LB) free to roam around and do whatever he wants in this game? Maybe I'm misunderstanding that?

[WFLukic]

1 hour ago, Jlash said:

So why is exactly is Josh Allen (the LB) free to roam around and do whatever he wants in this game? Maybe I'm misunderstanding that?

As in he's gonna be used to rush from the strongside, weakside or blitz through the middle.

[Jlash]

1 minute ago, WFLukic said:

As in he's gonna be used to rush from the strongside, weakside or blitz through the middle.

So you're rushing 5 all game?

[Xmad]

10 minutes ago, Jlash said:

So you're rushing 5 all game?

[DingoLadd]

Swap the QBs and there's no question who wins this matchup, Portland by a decent margin here.

If Darnold was at the helm this might be different, but I do not trust Allen right now against a competent if thin defense.