A.M- Life After Marcus Watch (options?)

[titans0021]

I’d guess you’re looking at 2 years, $40 million for Tannehill. Maybe 3 years, $60 million with an out after two. Possibly a little less. His league-wide reputation seems to be a bit below Foles (based on how little trade interest RT generated) and a slightly younger Foles got $22 million per. 
 

[titans0021]

The only thing that could really affect Tannehill is if Chicago or the Chargers (if Rivers retires) get involved. I just don’t see a truly bad team wanting to commit to Tannehill. And most good/borderline good teams are settled at QB. Maybe Tampa or Denver (in the sense that I have no idea what Elway will ever do).

[TitanSS]

Jordan Love is not a starting caliber QB in the NFL and I've yet to find a single cut up online to explain why he's even being mentioned as a draftable QB.

Hard pass.

[Andrei01]

4 hours ago, TitanSS said:

Jordan Love is not a starting caliber QB in the NFL and I've yet to find a single cut up online to explain why he's even being mentioned as a draftable QB.

Hard pass.

Because the arm talent jumps off the tape, even on his worst days. I get that his numbers haven't been as good this year and has put up too many bad performances, so maybe he'd like to return to school instead of coming out after the season, but the arm talent is off the charts for this kid. There's a touch throw he made down the field this past week against Fresno State basically into triple coverage and placed right on the money that even in the NFL, you could find a very select few that could complete it.

[TitanLegend]

My thought process is if you're looking at resigning Tannehill after the season it's because he's continued his pretty high level of play. He's not Mahomes or Brady or whatever out there right now, but I don't think it's a stretch to say he's playing like one of the 10 or 12 best QBs in football right now(in the 8-12 range), and he's doing it in an offense that everyone agrees is pitiful in terms of design a lot of the time. If that continues, you can't let that walk. You give him a 3 or 4 year deal that pays him according to his top 8-12 QB level performance(30 mil or whatever the going rate is now) and you build around him. If he regresses to what he was in Miami, just the run of the mill average QB or whatever, then you let him walk unless he's willing to come back on a cheap deal to be a bridge or backup.

I don't see a scenario where he plays at a level where all he's worth is 20 mil a year and you want to commit yourself to him. If that's the case you just move on, it's not worth sitting around in QB purgatory.

[Daniel]

3 hours ago, Andrei01 said:

Because the arm talent jumps off the tape, even on his worst days. I get that his numbers haven't been as good this year and has put up too many bad performances, so maybe he'd like to return to school instead of coming out after the season, but the arm talent is off the charts for this kid. There's a touch throw he made down the field this past week against Fresno State basically into triple coverage and placed right on the money that even in the NFL, you could find a very select few that could complete it.

Does it?  Because I've been watching some tape, and I don't see arm talent jumping off.

If all you mean is that he can throw a ball far, then I guess I just don't care because he sucks at decision making and placement when not playing the little sisters of the poor, as they say.

[Andrei01]

Maybe it wouldn't be a bad idea to let him test the market first. There are several QBs set to become FAs, and frankly not that many teams that should be in the market for one. That could work in our favor and drive his price down a little. Foles was a SB winner and his price tag wasn't close to 30M per. Keenum had a hell of a year taking his team to the playoffs, and IIRC his wasn't either. Both were younger than Tanny currently is. So was Cousins. If we can have him for something like a 3 year, 20-25 per season, preferably closer to 20, by all means bring him back. If some other team offers him more than that, I honestly would switch our focus towards the Draft.

[Andrei01]

5 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Does it?  Because I've been watching some tape, and I don't see arm talent jumping off.

If all you mean is that he can throw a ball far, then I guess I just don't care because he sucks at decision making and placement when not playing the little sisters of the poor, as they say.

No, obviously not just throwing the ball far. I don't even think he has the strongest arm out of this class. I meant arm talent to make any throw at any level of the field out of all kinds of platforms.

[ragevsuall17]

9 hours ago, titans0021 said:

I’d guess you’re looking at 2 years, $40 million for Tannehill. Maybe 3 years, $60 million with an out after two. Possibly a little less. His league-wide reputation seems to be a bit below Foles (based on how little trade interest RT generated) and a slightly younger Foles got $22 million per. 
 

I mentioned 5-10M in a previous post... But I was really thinking 15M/year... Which is what Brissett got after Luck retired. 

20M seems likely possible as well... And less attractive. 

On the other end of the spectrum, Keenum got 3M to start and Fitz and Taylor both got 2/11M. Bridgewater got 7M.

I really don't know where his market is... 

[Daniel]

9 minutes ago, Andrei01 said:

No, obviously not just throwing the ball far. I don't even think he has the strongest arm out of this class. I meant arm talent to make any throw at any level of the field out of all kinds of platforms.

Here’s the thing I think that people mess up about prospects they like: they get blinders on and only see the good things they do, ignoring the bad. We all do that with the Titans QB of the week and I think that’s what you’re doing with Love. I’m sure he can make all the throws into tight windows, but he can’t do it consistently.

He misfires on those throws a lot, and that results in a lot of interceptions. Any half decent college QB can put balls into tight windows: you’ll see Tua, Burrow, Herbert, Fromm, and Eason do it too.

Tua, Burrow, Herbert, and Fromm do it consistently and against high level competition. The only time we’ve seen Love against high level competition, he folded like a newspaper.

[titans0021]

31 minutes ago, ragevsuall17 said:

I mentioned 5-10M in a previous post... But I was really thinking 15M/year... Which is what Brissett got after Luck retired. 

20M seems likely possible as well... And less attractive. 

On the other end of the spectrum, Keenum got 3M to start and Fitz and Taylor both got 2/11M. Bridgewater got 7M.

I really don't know where his market is... 

Yeah, I could see something like 3/45 being possible as well. I consider him to be a more proven, consistent starter than the Fitz/Taylor, but I could see him being and Teddy getting similar contracts this offseason. As I think more about it, $15 million per seems about right, unless he lights it up and leads us to the playoffs, then the number could be $20M+.

[Andrei01]

9 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Here’s the thing I think that people mess up about prospects they like: they get blinders on and only see the good things they do, ignoring the bad. We all do that with the Titans QB of the week and I think that’s what you’re doing with Love. I’m sure he can make all the throws into tight windows, but he can’t do it consistently.

He misfires on those throws a lot, and that results in a lot of interceptions. Any half decent college QB can put balls into tight windows: you’ll see Tua, Burrow, Herbert, Fromm, and Eason do it too.

Tua, Burrow, Herbert, and Fromm do it consistently and against high level competition. The only time we’ve seen Love against high level competition, he folded like a newspaper.

Yeah, but here's the thing. Not all tight throws or big plays are the same. There are things that he does that others simply don't. He has made several of those, in several games, in his bad ones too, that others simply don't. Off of all kinds of platforms. There just aren't that many quarterbacks that can throw those in the NFL, let alone at the college level.

And I'm not blind about him at all, there's bad that comes along with him as well. Some of those off platform throws will sometime misfire and he won't get away with it everytime. It was a red flag for the likes of Mahomes or Lamar Jackson as well, and they seem to have come out fine. Good coaching will fix that. So will experience, and learning when not to blindly think he can get away with it. He also has made bad decisions. Sometimes trying to just give his receivers a chance, sometimes just missing people dropping in underneath coverage. Those aren't minor things, but again, it's things that he can correct and get better at. There weren't many of those last year.

The competition thing, we've been over it before. It's not that big of a deal if you think his traits will be able to transcend into the NFL. Neither of those quarterbacks is playing on the Utah State roster, so it's not worth comparing how well they have done against similar type of defensive units. Tua is playing behind a solid OL and throwing to 3 (!!!) legit 1st round caliber WRs. Love is just not.

So, yeah, there are risks involving him, no doubt about that. Just like with any other prospect. His ceiling though, I just don't see any other quarterback with greater potential in this upcoming class. I'm not crazy about him, I'm not the one that came up with all the Mahomes comparisons, and I'm not blind about him either. I just think that, like with Mahomes, Watson, or Lamar before him, a smart team will believe his greatness will eventually overcome his shortcomings, and he'll look like the next best thing on a different NFL roster, and would hate for that to happen. 

[ragevsuall17]

54 minutes ago, titans0021 said:

Yeah, I could see something like 3/45 being possible as well. I consider him to be a more proven, consistent starter than the Fitz/Taylor, but I could see him being and Teddy getting similar contracts this offseason. As I think more about it, $15 million per seems about right, unless he lights it up and leads us to the playoffs, then the number could be $20M+.

With our remaining schedule, if he can get us to the playoffs, I would be willing to look into him as a more long term answer.  I think every remaining team on our schedule is a playoff contender... so it'd be a nice stretch... especially with the injuries that have been plaguing us recently.

I'm looking at 25M for our starting offensive backfiled... if that means 15M for Tanny and 10M for Henry, or 17M for Tanny and 8M for Henry, I don't care... that seems like a good amount... with easy outs starting after 2 seasons.  We run the risk of a Bortles scenario with Tanny... but if he can keep winning and shows improvement against that schedule with our offensive system and issues, I'd be willing to take that risk with him.  

We're projected at a little more than 60M in cap space next year as it stands (pending the official cap # for next year) including the roll over and dead cap hits.  But we can easily create more money with a few simple moves... cutting Wake and Dion are pretty obvious moves that would net us an additional 10M.  Walker is a tough one... he doesn't save us much with a pre 6/1 cut... but would remove him off the books completely in 2020 (if we designate him a post 6/1 cut, we get nearly 2M in cap space this year, but have a dead hit of 1.6M next year... same savings, just pushing it up a year (which is moot now a days with roll over).  Cutting Delanie though... man, that sucks even thinking about it... but he may not be breaking down... he might have already broken down... 

[Daniel]

1 hour ago, Andrei01 said:

There are things that he does that others simply don't. He has made several of those, in several games, in his bad ones too, that others simply don't. Off of all kinds of platforms. There just aren't that many quarterbacks that can throw those in the NFL, let alone at the college level.

Good coaching will fix that.

Specifically, what can he do that the top prospects can’t? Because most of the top guys can do all the throws.

And good coaching can fix a lot of issues. If a prospect is relying on that to work out in the NFL, then he’s not a good prospect.

[Andrei01]

5 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Specifically, what can he do that the top prospects can’t? Because most of the top guys can do all the throws.

And good coaching can fix a lot of issues. If a prospect is relying on that to work out in the NFL, then he’s not a good prospect.

Throwing. From multiple platforms, at any level, and deliver dimes. Across his body, on the run, off balance. Touch throws or bullets. Maybe others are capable of pulling off one or a few, but to him it's virtually a trait. Hence all the Mahomes comparisons and people hyping up his ceiling.

And sure, coaching can fix a lot, but that's why it's important to keep potential in mind. For him, that's among the Mahomes-es or Rodgers-es of the league, for others, even some that are maybe more advanced than him coming out, it's not. Doesn't make them bad prospects by any means, it just makes his potential that much more special.