Hoping We Struck GOLD With Rudolph... Steelers visiting 49ers : Week 3 GDT

[warfelg]

3 hours ago, wwhickok said:

Part of the problem is that someone 'new' always has the green dot. Figure out who does it best and keep the dot there. No need to move it from helmet to helmet everytime you add a new player.

I think there's that and the high turnover rate at positions season to season, game to game, even play to play.  He haven't had 1 LB play 100% of the snaps yet.  I think until we hit the point that Bush can be left on the field, we're going to have this issue.  One thing that keeps coming up about Bush, Minkah, TJ.....intelligence.  These guys are incredibly smart players.  You don't hear that about Edmunds, Williams, Barron.

Like I see people have made a ton of comments about how Edmunds sucks yada yada. The issue is both safeties in the past have played like a SS (I think @Dcash4 and @armsteeld are going to backup my point on this easily); in that on routes, especially early in the season, Kam Kelley and Terrell Edmunds first move has been to step in and get width.  So if they are starting about 9 yards off the ball and just inside the hash marks, then their first move is to flatten to 6-7 yards and go outside the hashmark.  Well that's great if the DB/LB from under is carrying deep 3rd; but we aren't doing that.  

If you look at the all-22 from Tyler Lockett PI play, what you see is this exact thing going on.  Hilton had him in the slot.  Doesn't get a hand on him, doesn't even fake to Wilson to carry him to 5-6 yards off the LOS.  Hilton basically takes 1 step back and 2 steps out.  Flashes out to his zone without a look at the WR.  So now Wilson immediately knows we're in zone.  So he needs to see the LB depth.  Ok, Barron and Bush both play the same short inside hook zones.  Meanwhile at the snap, Edmunds and Kelley started on the hashes, and both make the same move to the outside in to the LOS.  Inside the hashes is wide open for Wilson to throw to.  If Wilson puts about 5 more yards of air on that ball, it's a TD and neither Kam or Terrell touch it.

All-22 from the DK Metcalf shows a similar thing.  Hilton in the slot on DK.  I can't even tell if this was man or zone.  Why?  Nelson and Haden carry their men 5 yards, Hilton watches as DK runs right past him.  Infract Hilton gives him the good old ole move of sticking an arm out.  So now Terrell, who looks like he's in a cover 2 shell, has to drop some to pickup DK.  Now DK is such a freak of nature, as soon as Edmunds gains any momentum to the LOS, DK won the battle, because Edmunds has to flip his hips and cover him man on man.  Where we got lucky is that they didn't send a TE on a crossing right behind that or that guy would be wide open.

Now it might seem like I'm picking on Hilton, and I partially am.  Go back over the last 2-3 years and we're constantly beat up the seams because it looks like he doesn't know when he's in man or zone.  He doesn't ever try to get a hand on a WR (BTW watch Haden and Nelson on this Sunday.  They are good at letting the guy get a step then jamming without setting their feet.) or hinder their progress right away.  And even if you aren't trying to do this right away, even in zone, good DB's are taught to mirror WR's first few steps until they leave the zone.  Hilton doesn't even do that.

This gif is almost a perfect encapsulation of what Hilton is terrible at.  That's Bryce Callahan, one of the best slot corners in the NFL, playing zone.  Now what he understands, is even though he has the short curl zone (hashes to numbers), he needs to carry his man until there at 3 WR's in front of him.  Chicago is playing Cover-3 in this play, so that hashes to numbers zone is vulnerable.  Bryce needs to sit on that man until the route show themselves, then recover shallow when another man enters there.  Notice how his hips don't open at all until the WR starts his breakdown.  What?  He understands #23 and #58 have his outsides, so he needs to be able to drive forward.  Now he can break and make a play on that ball.

What I see far too often in our defense is trying to show that.  But Hilton plays about 4 yards closer to the LOS (Callahan is off 7 here) and takes one step back.  Because the RB is running a flair route, the LB doesn't want to shallow out himself too much to allow for the wheel or the angle, where it it their responsibility to carry that zone out wider.  The issue is that Hilton usually ends up reading the RB or his own LB not flattening, and stays too shallow.  So that WR would be getting behind Hilton, Edmunds has to step up.  Now the QB has options.  If his WR sits and Edmunds/Davis drive on him, he's got 1-on-1 on the outside.  If Edmunds doesn't drive, he's got a near wide open WR sitting in the most dangerous spot on the field.

 

This is where I'm hopeful that Fitzpatrick can clean up some of this stuff.  He's more patient on the backend.  In the slot, Fitzpatrick has amazing foot speed and mirroring technique to drop and flip the hips on a WR either direction.  Minkah is actually a big guy for slot coverage with those foot skills (6'1" 205 LBs), so he's not afraid of sitting 4 yards off, getting the jam, and being able to keep up with the guy.  In deep coverage, Minkah flips his hips fast and goes.  So he's more patient in his reads because he knows he can get to the ball, so he doesn't need to cheat on any routes.  

If I had to take a knock on Edmunds, it actually wouldn't be his coverage or his read on plays (he is more of a SS than a FS).  It's actually his running style.  His gait is a wide set gait.  That means it takes more effort to get to speed and change directions for him than other guys.  Minkah has a narrower gait, so getting to speed takes less effort.  It's why Edmunds tries to 'cheat' some, because his limitations in getting up to speed means that if he sits he's going to be a split second late.  In fact, it's actually something that helps his brother Trumaine at LB.  All three Edmunds brothers are similar runners.  But at LB, Trumaine should be setting with a wider base and more concern with sliding side to side and then dedicate the hips to flip to the play.  But at safety, you need to set up with a more narrow base and feel the freedom to move quicker in any direction.

[warfelg]

Offensively, I think there's going to be a lot of good to come from the starting of Rudolph.  Starting this game, I want to go through these point by point:

• Rudolph's arm.  With reports that Ben felt something off even before the Pats game, I think that there was a reason we weren't taking too many shots downfield.  I think that Rudolph's arm being a little more lively will mean some downfield shots and open up the WR some more.
• James Washington and Diontae Johnson over Donte Moncrief.  Two guys that got huge snap numbers through the preseason with Mason, so the chemistry is there.  The big 4 worries in chemistry that I have are Pouncey (where's the snap, speed, and communication), Vance (good start but that was their first live reps), Conner, and Juju.  Washington's deep ball ability and Johnson's ability to snap off routes are going to make our offense less predictable.
• Return of the PA.  I know one of the things Rudolph put a lot of work in with this past offseason was playing under center.  Taking drops, not hitching, 3, 5, 7, 9 step drops, roll outs, boot legs.  I think we start putting Mason under center, and Conner in the deep I.  I think where this needs work on doing the same with Jaylen Samuels as well, and then both in the side car.
• 50/50 balance.  We've been 70/30 in the first 6 quarters of the season.  Even some of the higher flying offenses still manage to be 60/40 at worse.  So with Mason back there, we should be more apt to run the ball rather than throw it (unless its a few screens to act as an 'extended handoff').

What gives me some hope, SF has a goof front 7, but we should be able to move the ball.  Baltimore is the first secondary we face with a great player in the secondary. We got a month and a half until we play what might be our second toughest defense on the season.

[Dcash4]

25 minutes ago, warfelg said:

Return of the PA

I'm most excited for this. I'm not a hardcore analytics person for football, but this is the one thing that I fully get behind them with. PA works. PA is good. You should do PA a lot. 

Its about deceiving eyes and its something I complain about with our play-calling alot. I don't think we do enough to force communication and false reads. You look at a lot of the best offensive playcallers in the league, McVay, Reid, McDaniels, Peterson, Reich, Nagy, etc...false reads are a driving force of controlling linebacker and safety eyes and attacking them after you put them at a decision. 

Some of my favorite McVay things are the false read of pulling tight ends across the formation. He does this even without PA at times, but the action sucks up defenses just the same. 

We are not even a team that motions a lot -- we do the half motion to pick up their defense, but its usually our Z in the slot coming in behind the tackle and then going right back to his original spot.

With Rudolph moving forward. Playaction. Bunch Sets. WR Screen game. Gimme, Gimme, Gimme. 

Edited September 18, 2019 by Dcash4

[warfelg]

Two of my favorite thing that McVay, McDaniels, Reid do that Fichtner does not is the TE wheel route and the TE shallow cross-post route.  For them to look to run a cross and suddenly break upfield creates so many openings.

[Dcash4]

Id love to do a "what we love best about offensive play callers" thread, but it would make me too sad to think we dont have one. 

I know everyone wants to know who the next QB is going to be post Ben, but man....give me the next smart, analytical, new age OC. I think you are seeing throughout the league what type of impact OCs can have on QB play. *GOFF* Cough *GOFF*

 

 

[Chieferific]

Great breakdowns @warfelg.  I never noticed that about Hilton. Tomlin stated he wasn't going to move Minkah around but it sounds like you think he will.  It sounds like they should. 

[warfelg]

Just now, Chieferific said:

Great breakdowns @warfelg.  I never noticed that about Hilton. Tomlin stated he wasn't going to move Minkah around but it sounds like you think he will.  It sounds like they should. 

I don't think he will.  I think no Sean Davis changed that.  If Davis were available, you play "big nickle" with them.

[skywlker32]

4 minutes ago, Chieferific said:

Great breakdowns @warfelg.  I never noticed that about Hilton. Tomlin stated he wasn't going to move Minkah around but it sounds like you think he will.  It sounds like they should. 

Tomlin only said they would keep him at FS initially. Once he is acclimated, you may see some moving him around (mostly nickel corner and such). That is dependent on the availability of Davis later in the season or their level of comfort having Kelly in the game though.

[Chieferific]

2 minutes ago, warfelg said:

I don't think he will.  I think no Sean Davis changed that.  If Davis were available, you play "big nickle" with them.

Then I misunderstood. I thought you were suggesting Minkah come down and cover the Slot instead of Hilton. Which would be nice but then that leaves Kelly/Hilton back at FS.  Where do you get those All 22 videos?  I would like to take a look at Sutton in the Slot. 

[jebrick]

I hope they play Fitz at FS in the base and move him to SCB in the nickle.

Edited September 18, 2019 by jebrick

[jebrick]

2 minutes ago, Chieferific said:

I would like to take a look at Sutton in the Slot.

Were you looking vs Seattle because that is where Sutton was.

[Chieferific]

Just now, jebrick said:

Were you looking vs Seattle because that is where Sutton was.

Actually didn't get a lot of that game. Had Giants Vs Bills .  Tried streaming it on my computer but that was hit or miss.  But also I like that All 22 look.  It's much easier to break down.  Did you have an opinion on Sutton's play?

[MOSteelers56]

53 minutes ago, Chieferific said:

Actually didn't get a lot of that game. Had Giants Vs Bills .  Tried streaming it on my computer but that was hit or miss.  But also I like that All 22 look.  It's much easier to break down.  Did you have an opinion on Sutton's play?

He had a couple of really solid tackles. I didn't notice him much in coverage.

[J-ALL-DAY]

6 hours ago, warfelg said:

Offensively, I think there's going to be a lot of good to come from the starting of Rudolph.  Starting this game, I want to go through these point by point:

• Rudolph's arm.  With reports that Ben felt something off even before the Pats game, I think that there was a reason we weren't taking too many shots downfield.  I think that Rudolph's arm being a little more lively will mean some downfield shots and open up the WR some more.
• James Washington and Diontae Johnson over Donte Moncrief.  Two guys that got huge snap numbers through the preseason with Mason, so the chemistry is there.  The big 4 worries in chemistry that I have are Pouncey (where's the snap, speed, and communication), Vance (good start but that was their first live reps), Conner, and Juju.  Washington's deep ball ability and Johnson's ability to snap off routes are going to make our offense less predictable.
• Return of the PA.  I know one of the things Rudolph put a lot of work in with this past offseason was playing under center.  Taking drops, not hitching, 3, 5, 7, 9 step drops, roll outs, boot legs.  I think we start putting Mason under center, and Conner in the deep I.  I think where this needs work on doing the same with Jaylen Samuels as well, and then both in the side car.
• 50/50 balance.  We've been 70/30 in the first 6 quarters of the season.  Even some of the higher flying offenses still manage to be 60/40 at worse.  So with Mason back there, we should be more apt to run the ball rather than throw it (unless its a few screens to act as an 'extended handoff').

What gives me some hope, SF has a goof front 7, but we should be able to move the ball.  Baltimore is the first secondary we face with a great player in the secondary. We got a month and a half until we play what might be our second toughest defense on the season.

Curious, what makes you think that? Not saying you guys will or won't, but why are you so confident that your offense should be able to move the ball consistently?

[warfelg]

13 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Curious, what makes you think that? Not saying you guys will or won't, but why are you so confident that your offense should be able to move the ball consistently?

Balance basically. Even though we kept running the same offense with Rudolph in there as we did with Ben, it looked dramatically different. I think given the time, there’s going to be some concepts used by Fichtner to get Rudolph some easier looks. I think we will look to push some deep passes to Washington. Utilize our RBs and TE more in the passing game. With Ben we tended to pass to open up the run, and though y’all have a decent run d, I think there’s going to be an attempt to establish the run this week and soften things up some.