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.Buzz

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8 hours ago, pwny said:

I'm starting to think that pissing off your best pass defenders and pass rushers and trading them all away when they don't want to be here anymore is a bad strategy for defense building.

I fundamentally don't even understand how this chart is supposed to work because it seems like utterly made up nonsense.  But at the same time...i think you might be onto something.

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5 hours ago, Tugboat said:

I fundamentally don't even understand how this chart is supposed to work because it seems like utterly made up nonsense.  But at the same time...i think you might be onto something.

Up and right is bad. Down and left is good.

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4 hours ago, .Buzz said:
10 hours ago, Tugboat said:

I fundamentally don't even understand how this chart is supposed to work because it seems like utterly made up nonsense.  But at the same time...i think you might be onto something.

Up and right is bad. Down and left is good.

To expand a bit, the higher up you are, the worse your zone defense performs vs what is expected in any given situation. And the further right you are, the worse you did vs offenses when in man. And this is vs expectations and situational, so like giving up 14 yards on a pass is typically bad, but it’s actually good if it’s 4th and 17, but maybe still worse than the average where teams maybe typically only get 9 yards. Meanwhile averaging allowing 3 yards per pass would be incredible, but allowing 3 yards on a third and goal from the 2 isn’t good at all. 
 

So basically without all that other in depth match that goes into it, the basics is that our zone defense is worse than anyone’s except the Jets, and our man defense is worse than anyone except the Titans and Falcons, and because we’re so bad at both we’re basically the only defense that couldn’t just switch to one or the other and [theoretically] get better results. 

Edited by pwny
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3 hours ago, Tugboat said:

But like...how do you separate it into those two categories?  When there's so much mixed coverage.

I’d guess if it’d a guy in man that gave up the completion, it would go in man. And the same for zone. 

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On 11/5/2020 at 6:11 PM, pwny said:

I’d guess if it’d a guy in man that gave up the completion, it would go in man. And the same for zone. 

That's still just a really confusing measure to me.  Like...it'd be useful to know that your CBs specifically keep getting picked on in zone, or your LBers are being abused in man coverage.  But I just don't understand how you can break most contemporary defenses down to such a simple concept.  And even then it's like, are they being beat in press man, off man, shallow zones, deep zones, press bail, or are they just getting ripped apart on exchanges across zones or safety support doing completely the wrong thing?  What was your LBer doing relative to the other guy or two, and what was his assignment?  Was he wrongly assigned to a coverage or contain role?  Changes every play, and every alignment on the defensive side.  This is the kind of analytics that i just don't really see any value in tbh.  There's value in there somewhere...it just has to be boiled down to something more specific than that.  Something that actually means something.  And that's next to impossible, beyond a generalization.  Especially with particularly mercurial defensive schemes (not applicable to Mr Wash obvs).

 

The whole game is so scheme specific now.  It's a chess match on both sides.  Certain pieces are still the Kings and Queens...but everything else is starting to come down to fitting a role that you want someone to play.  Rather than their all-around ability.  Except for RBs.  Where just doing their job is good enough, if everyone else does their job.  Pawns.

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