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Whats up with Baker


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22 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

You can but you pretty much have to be a mental midget to think a 6' QB can't succeed in today's NFL though.

Some QBs have thrived in spite of being little. Baker might also. I hope so. He might not though, and at the moment it doesn't appear to be only his height that is holding him back.

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23 minutes ago, Mega Ron said:

Some QBs have thrived in spite of being little. Baker might also. I hope so. He might not though, and at the moment it doesn't appear to be only his height that is holding him back.

Shorter QBs do have lower bust rates historically but that might be partly due to having to be great to even get the chance.

I don't think his height holds him back at all. Sure, 6'3 is probably ideal but it isn't like he lost 2.5 inches and has to compensate, he has been a shorter QB his whole life and that only hurts you if you are a statue in the pocket which I don't know if any short NFL QB has qualified as a statue.

As far as other things holding him back it was more factors that were out of his control than him last year. He probably has a top 5 arm as far as strength and accuracy combined, it says a lot about a team or offense when you can't succeed with that type of QB.

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Just now, MWil23 said:

There isn't enough of a baseline control to factor in bust rates for shorter QBs taken in the first round. 

Use any round. Brees and Wilson would be top 3 picks of their draft in today's NFL.

Mayfield is the tallest QB drafted #1 overall since 2016.

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5 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Use any round. Brees and Wilson would be top 3 picks of their draft in today's NFL.

Mayfield is the tallest QB drafted #1 overall since 2016.

Worth a read:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/nfl-draft-round-round-qb-study-1994-2016

Unfortunately I don't have data points from 2017-now, but the in depth analysis/table is fascinating.

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19 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

As far as other things holding him back it was more factors that were out of his control than him last year. He probably has a top 5 arm as far as strength and accuracy combined, it says a lot about a team or offense when you can't succeed with that type of QB.

We don't know this really though do we?

Again, we hope it is the case, but it might not be.

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1 minute ago, Mega Ron said:

We don't know this really though do we?

Again, we hope it is the case, but it might not be.

I guess it depends if you watched the games. Freddie gets a lot of blame for not adjusting but 3 poor offensive linemen on one line (two at the tackle spots) is tough and you are going to have to adjust to help them because a quick passing game will fail if you have to always use it. Winston would have thrown 50 picks if he was our QB last year.

There is no way it can be that bad again this year so I expect a lot more people to get on board with our QB next season. He is accurate enough that he can be a one read QB and succeed or an elite game manager (in ability, not mentality) but that isn't going to be what we have, we'll have a future MVP candidate out there imo and winning us games. We and he still have a lot of work to do but I see a winning season coming unless we completely screw up the offseason or screwed up the coaching staff.

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18 minutes ago, Thomas5737 said:

Use any round. Brees and Wilson would be top 3 picks of their draft in today's NFL.

Mayfield is the tallest QB drafted #1 overall since 2016.

Absolutely, but the historical precedent is just now starting to be acknowledged thanks to those guys. Prior to them, many/most small QB's drafted in any round were largely unsuccessful to the point of where they weren't drafted high (not taking into account guys like Fran Tarkenton).

https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2017/02/stats_show_shorter_nfl_quarter.html

This year by year analysis shows what we all probably agree on, although guys like Manning/Brady skew 6'4 whereas Brees/Wilson skew 5'10-6'0, and Rodgers skews 6'2. Since 2/3 of all starting QBs are at least 6'3, most of those QBs will be average/below average, whereas there aren't as many sub 6'2 QBs, therefore not having the "control data baseline" that I was saying earlier.

Donovan McNabb and Aaron Rodgers were under the "old school" threshold of 6'2 (one of the reasons Rodgers fell to Green Bay in '05).

Granted, you have historical outliers like Michael Vick (6'0) who were still drafted at the top of the draft despite the height concern.

 

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35 minutes ago, Mega Ron said:

??? What are you saying?

In the games I watched, all of them, he looked sluggish and out of shape.

 

Really? That is what you took from them? You are aware he is the QB right? Sure, he didn't look like Lamar Jackson out there, he never will. Remember when he hit some crazy MPH on the Chubb run early in the year? Remember him running and fighting for yards in the final game when many players had already packed it in? Physically he was fine besides the hand injury and the ankle injury but he sucked it up and didn't complain (to the media).

Now obviously he has things to work on along with the coaching staff to counter what defenses are doing and how to hide our flaws and still be successful but him being fat or out of shape is a zero worry to me. Roethlisberger is fat and old and it doesn't matter as long as the arm does its job.

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44 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Rule changes regarding hitting QB’s has helped the smaller guys a lot too imo.

Gotta wonder if some of these would have been able to hold up to the physical punishment of prior generations.

It helps them all but it would certainly seem to help the slender built QBs the most, not sure that height specifically would make a difference. You don't worry about a 5'9 215 lb RB any more than a 6' 220 lb RB.

 

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1 hour ago, Thomas5737 said:

Really? That is what you took from them? You are aware he is the QB right? Sure, he didn't look like Lamar Jackson out there, he never will. Remember when he hit some crazy MPH on the Chubb run early in the year? Remember him running and fighting for yards in the final game when many players had already packed it in? Physically he was fine besides the hand injury and the ankle injury but he sucked it up and didn't complain (to the media).

Now obviously he has things to work on along with the coaching staff to counter what defenses are doing and how to hide our flaws and still be successful but him being fat or out of shape is a zero worry to me. Roethlisberger is fat and old and it doesn't matter as long as the arm does its job.

Well it's not all I took from the games, but it is one thing.

Do I want him to be better for us? Yes, of course I do.

Do I think he will be? I don't know.

I'm left hoping that he will be, rather than believing in him.

I'm glad you have faith in him. More power to you.

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