2020 College Prospects

[AkronsWitness]

1 hour ago, Counselor said:

Id be fine with Ruggs but I’d rather trade down and grab Smith if so. He’s a better receiver than Ruggs and explosive enough. He might stay at Bama though.

I dont get it with Ruggs, honestly. He is a small fast WR and whoever takes him looks like they are reaching for the next Ty Hill where in reality he is probably more like John Ross.

I need to see more from a draft expert on why Ruggs outside of the fact that hes fast should be taken in the 1st. Again, for the 45th time, I would much rather have KJ Hill in the 4th over Ruggs in the 1st. I honestly dont think much seperates either of those two and would easily say that Hill has better route running, hands and contested catch ability than Ruggs but the price tag is the difference in 2-3 rounds.....for some reason.

The last 2 times people pegged OSU WRs as 'system' products they turned out to be Michael Thomas and Terry McLaurin. Dont be stupid and waste a 1st on a guy because he can run fast past college DBs.

Edited January 2, 2020 by AkronsWitness

[Broncofan]

7 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

I dont get it with Ruggs, honestly. He is a small fast WR and whoever takes him looks like they are reaching for the next Ty Hill where in reality he is probably more like John Ross.

I need to see more from a draft expert on why Ruggs outside of the fact that hes fast should be taken in the 1st. Again, for the 45th time, I would much rather have KJ Hill in the 4th over Ruggs in the 1st. I honestly dont think much seperates either of those two and would easily say that Hill has better route running, hands and contested catch ability than Ruggs but the price tag is the difference in 2-3 rounds.....for some reason.

The last 2 times people pegged OSU WRs as 'system' products they turned out to be Michael Thomas and Terry McLaurin. Dont be stupid and waste a 1st on a guy because he can run fast past college DBs.

Ruggs also benefits from playing with 3 other guys who likely are playing on Sunday’s for a while (Jeudy / Smith / Waddle).    That allows a lack of coverage focus that I’d be worried about translation to NFL early 1st round level of success.   I have no doubts he’s a NFL level talent - but Rd1 worthy?   Much harder projection. 

Jeudy broke out in his rookie / sophomore year and has been the focus of D’s.   He probably won’t be there but I believe he’s even better than Amari Cooper was going into the draft.   Doesn’t mean he’s a lock as picking up the game / fit in right O / work ethic all matter and we have no idea on those areas.   But skill wise he’s just so complete.   It’s not controversial but sometimes the CW is just right.   Don’t get me wrong I like Ruggs -  but not at Rd1.   

Edited January 2, 2020 by Broncofan

[Scoundrel]

47 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Ruggs also benefits from playing with 3 other guys who likely are playing on Sunday’s for a while (Jeudy / Smith / Waddle).    That allows a lack of coverage focus that I’d be worried about translation to NFL early 1st round level of success.   I have no doubts he’s a NFL level talent - but Rd1 worthy?   Much harder projection. 

Jeudy broke out in his rookie / sophomore year and has been the focus of D’s.   He probably won’t be there but I believe he’s even better than Amari Cooper was going into the draft.   Doesn’t mean he’s a lock as picking up the game / fit in right O / work ethic all matter and we have no idea on those areas.   But skill wise he’s just so complete.   It’s not controversial but sometimes the CW is just right.   Don’t get me wrong I like Ruggs -  but not at Rd1.   

Jeudy is from all accounts a high character high work ethic guy. When asked if he would play in the bowl game he said that whatever the bowl game they played in he knew he would be playing he had no second thoughts. 

[germ-x]

Just an interesting stat on Ruggs.  If/when he’s selected in the 1st round he would join Troy Williamson, Matt Jones (who was a college QB), Anthony Gonzalez, Cordarelle Patterson, and Kelvin Benjamin as the only WRs selected in the 1st round with under 100 career college receptions.

[BroncosFan2010]

Quote

Just an interesting stat on Ruggs.  If/when he’s selected in the 1st round he would join Troy Williamson, Matt Jones (who was a college QB), Anthony Gonzalez, Cordarelle Patterson, and Kelvin Benjamin as the only WRs selected in the 1st round with under 100 career college receptions.

Well thats some horrifying company. 

I dont like Ruggs as a FRP in any way. He always gets overlooked by the opposing defense b/c of the more talented guys around him that are prioritized in the gameplan. 

[germ-x]

4 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

Well thats some horrifying company. 

I dont like Ruggs as a FRP in any way. He always gets overlooked by the opposing defense b/c of the more talented guys around him that are prioritized in the gameplan. 

I forgot to add, that’s from ‘05-2019...still not good company. 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

Well thats some horrifying company. 

I dont like Ruggs as a FRP in any way. He always gets overlooked by the opposing defense b/c of the more talented guys around him that are prioritized in the gameplan. 

It's what makes Jeudy, Lamb, even Rhagor easier to project.   They were always the guy D's were trying to take out. 

I wouldn't have a problem with Reagor Day 2 at all - he was held back by truly awful QB play.   He's a burner who would help us a ton - but much better value at Day 2, if he's there.

Edited January 2, 2020 by Broncofan

[BroncoBruin]

Ruggs isn’t just speed and twitch. He had great ball skills and frequently wins contested catch situations. Strong hands to catch balls away from his body and has one of the lowest drop rates in college. Adjusts really well to the ball in the air. Also tough to get on the ground even at a smaller (6’0, 190) frame.

The low usage is somewhat concerning but I think there will be a few guys from the elite programs who buck that trend in the future with how top-heavy the sport has gotten. 

Edited January 2, 2020 by BroncoBruin

[Broncofan]

55 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

Ruggs isn’t just speed and twitch. He had great ball skills and frequently wins contested catch situations. Strong hands to catch balls away from his body and has one of the lowest drop rates in college. Also tough to get on the ground even at a smaller (6’0, 190) frame.

The low usage is somewhat concerning but I think there will be a few guys from the elite programs who buck that trend in the future with how top-heavy the sport has gotten. 

In any other year I get what you are saying.   Just the pool of talent is ridiculous at WR this year.    I get the desire to get a diff maker 

Put it another way - I’m sure there were calls to take Risner Rd1 if we look back at 20.  And if we had no one would be complaining - but then we’d have no TE for the future.   Now I get you are saying with Ruggs.   But as a contrast if we could get Delpit / T at 1.15 and WR burner Rd2 I think we have 2 huge diff makers.   Not sure the total package works nearly as well WR Rd1 unless Jeudy / Lamb fall (pipe dream imo).  

If the best guy on the board is head and shoulders above the rest we should take him.   A Wirfs (maybe Austin Jackson, pac-12 film so hard to translate to NFL than the Big10 / SEC).  Even Grant Delpit.   A guy who should have been taken before.    I’m not sure Ruggs is even above the rest of the WR tier below Jeudy / Lamb.   He’s in the mix but man being 3rd fiddle adds huge context for NFL projection.   And again nothing against the guy I think he plays on Sundays for a long time - but Rd1 is a much tougher sell given the WR pool depth.    

Edited January 2, 2020 by Broncofan

[BroncoBruin]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

In any other year I get what you are saying.   Just the pool of talent is ridiculous at WR this year.    I get the desire to get a diff maker 

Put it another way - I’m sure there were calls to take Risner Rd1 if we look back at 20.  And if we had no one would be complaining - but then we’d have no TE for the future.   Now I get you are saying 

If the best guy on the board is head and shoulders above the rest we should take him.   A Wirfs (maybe Austin Jackson, pac-12 film so hard to translate to NFL than the Big10 / SEC).  Even Grant Delpit.   A guy who should have been taken before.    I’m not sure Ruggs is even above the rest of the WR tier below Jeudy / Lamb.   He’s in the mix but man being 3rd fiddle adds huge context for NFL projection.   And again nothing against the guy I think he plays on Sundays for a long time - but Rd1 is a much tougher sell given the WR pool depth.    

This is the reality of picking at 15 and not in the top 10. The "head and shoulders" guys you're describing probably aren't there. The teens-early 20s range will be full of WRs, CBs and OL who teams will have different evaluations on. 

And just say no to Grant Delpit, for so many reasons. Fangio is not going to like him anyway. 

[Broncofan]

13 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

This is the reality of picking at 15 and not in the top 10. The "head and shoulders" guys you're describing probably aren't there. The teens-early 20s range will be full of WRs, CBs and OL who teams will have different evaluations on. 

And just say no to Grant Delpit, for so many reasons. Fangio is not going to like him anyway. 

Yeah I can’t lie in saying at 10-11 the chances we could have got the special talent was still there.   It’s going to be less clear unless there is a Derwin James - like inexplicable fall.   Ironically at 1.7 I fear LAC is going to get one of big 2 T’s.    How ironic.

Re: Delpit, I tend to agree Fangio won’t go there but I think he’s going to fall further than he should.   Just curious - is it on-field or off-field that drives that take? 

Edited January 2, 2020 by Broncofan

[broncos67]

Alex Leatherwood going back to Bama. Will be interesting to see what impact that has on the other draft-eligible tackles.

[BroncoBruin]

Just now, Broncofan said:

I tend to agree Fangio won’t go there but I think he’s going to fall further than he should.   Just curious - is it on-field or off-field that drives that take? 

Don't know anything about his character, to my eyes he just hasn't played well the majority of the year and he looks a step slower and less confident for whatever reason. Whoever voted on the Thorpe award couldn't have watched him play much. Specific to the Broncos, Vic is not going to be on board with picking a safety in the first round who can't consistently break down and make tackles. Tackling well and not committing penalties are the two non-negotiable traits for Fangio in his players. Contrast with Kareem Jackson and the impact he's made as a sure, physical tackler.  I also see more of a tweener skill set with Delpit where he doesn't offer the punishing presence of a box safety, nor the speed, fluidity and ball skills to shut down deep zones.

That said, he does offer a lot and on a team where he can play a do-it-all SS role, he'll have a lot of value. But I see more of a late 1st player than someone who will be a great value at 15. 

[rcpbawler]

28 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

This is the reality of picking at 15 and not in the top 10. The "head and shoulders" guys you're describing probably aren't there. The teens-early 20s range will be full of WRs, CBs and OL who teams will have different evaluations on. 

And just say no to Grant Delpit, for so many reasons. Fangio is not going to like him anyway. 

I think after the top twelve ( burrow, young, Tua, Thomas, Simmons, wirfs, jeudy, lamb, wills, epenesa, okudah and brown) there is precipitous drop off. If teams reach ala raiders>Ferrell last year or if a few of the QBs (love, Eason, Herbert) get pushed up then we have a shot at one of those guys.

 

As far as WR goes, I'm with the majority in that I'd rather wait, especially if it's between that and ruggs. I don't dislike him, and totally understand the intrigue with his speed, I just think you can find something similar at better value. If they're hellbent on wr at 15, I'd prefer Tee Higgins anyway. Doubt his timed speed is as fast but he seemed to have plenty enough speed to get behind defenses and averaged 20 ypc.

[BroncoBruin]

8 minutes ago, rcpbawler said:

I think after the top twelve ( burrow, young, Tua, Thomas, Simmons, wirfs, jeudy, lamb, wills, epenesa, okudah and brown) there is precipitous drop off. If teams reach ala raiders>Ferrell last year or if a few of the QBs (love, Eason, Herbert) get pushed up then we have a shot at one of those guys.

 

As far as WR goes, I'm with the majority in that I'd rather wait, especially if it's between that and ruggs. I don't dislike him, and totally understand the intrigue with his speed, I just think you can find something similar at better value. If they're hellbent on wr at 15, I'd prefer Tee Higgins anyway. Doubt his timed speed is as fast but he seemed to have plenty enough speed to get behind defenses and averaged 20 ypc.

I think the difference between Ruggs and the other speed guys is undersold. The 4.25 speed is obviously going to be the main appeal. Unlike a John Ross type who was always more track than football, every bit of that speed translates onto the field. It's comical watching how easily he separates from defenders.

The two guys Ruggs will be comp'd to in these conversations are KJ Hamler and Jalen Reagor, because they're likely to go in the 25-50 range meaning Denver could theoretically spend a 1st elsewhere. Here's the difference IMO. If you took 0.2 seconds off their timed speed, how effective would those two players be? In Reagor you might still have something worth drafting because he does have good playmaking instincts when the ball is in his hands that will make him dangerous beyond just the burners. And he has occasionally shown some "above the rim" ability, though not consistently. But KJ Hamler? He's all speed and twitch. If he's a 4.45-4.5 guy with his other traits, you're probably talking about an undrafted player. Most speed guys can only win with speed, so they just become inefficient beyond their effect on free safeties. Ruggs would still find ways to win if he ran a 4.45. Tough to tackle in space, great hands, adjusts in the air, physical through the catch point. Pair those traits with 99.9% percentile vertical speed and you have a fairly rare combination that's closer to Tyreek Hill than the track guys.