2020 College Prospects

[IronJ]

43 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

It's all about the price, though.  Pointing to past years isn't accurate - it depends on the demand / alternate buyers.    DEN didn't get full book value on moving down from 10 (1300 pts) to 20 (plus 52 - 1220 total points) last year because PIT was the only buyer, and they didn't mind moving back to get an O guy, where they thought he'd be.  The seller would have be OK from moving from 11 to 15, and possibly being left of the cold in that drop in tier talent.   So it's not as simple as saying "hey this is what happened last year".   Demand/other bidders/how far seller is willing to move back drives the price.      For the same reasons, teams pay well-above book prices if there are multiple bidders for the same guy / same target spot / seller isn't inclined to move that far back, and has to be blown away.   

Your scenario above at all isn't terrible, but that's far from a certainty.  And a late 3rd vs. early 3rd matters in the valuation, given the difference-makers we can find in early 3rd (but it dries up a ton later on in 3rd, unless teams reach horribly for need/other reasons, which is possible, Elway showed that in spades from 2013-7....).   But the bigger issue is the price is far from set in stone.   

No argument that it wouldn't be a reach for a top 15 spot for any of the 3.  With moving up, it's all about the price here, the player isn't in question - as the alternatives if we stay are really good, arguably equivalent - but not WR.   If you pay an insane price to move from 15 to 11....given the other alternatives at 15...well, you get the idea.

Now, if somehow there aren't 3 QB's off the board by 10 or so.....yeah, we're going to have to move up.  Unless you think Henderson is seen as equivalent to the top 3 WR (I can at least see why some ppl think he's close, but I'm not there, esp in Fangio's D), assuming the other guys are gone:

Top 4 T's (and I'm worried about Becton, but that's from a consensus opinion)

Young

Kinlaw

Simmons

Okudah

Brown (who I do worry may be the biggest bust, so I hope he's not top on the board at 15)

3 QB's

Top 3 WR's

I've been convinced by more tape that Brown and obv QB aren't the guys we want.   But those are the guys recognized to be elite difference-makers and felt top of the board.    So we're still OK at 15 even if those are the first 15 taken.  But if only 2 QB's go, then there's a drop IMO at the 1.15 spot (and yes, if Brown is falling, then we're at risk that it's at 1.14 where the drop occurs, if we don't want Brown).

If Brown is falling, or 2 QB's are the only ones gone by top 10, then yes, we should entertain moving up, even if it's above market prices....if they aren't, then the alternative of an impact guy at another position we'll eventually need for 2021+, I can live with standing pat, given how deep WR is for Rd2 (and then maybe move up Rd2 if we are worried about a run taking our next "guy" we love, as the price is way lower).

 

The more I look at mocks and think about it I feel Brown is the guy who will fall.  Do I think he’s a good player, Yes but I don’t feel he’s going to be elite.  He’s a big guy who doesn’t have elite athleticism and will be a 2 down plugger.  That doesn’t scream top15 pick to me, you can get guys like that later in the draft.  A top 15 player needs to be a difference maker and I’m not sure Brown is going to be that although he’d help our dline a lot.

 

[IronJ]

5 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I don't get the hype on Ruggs I'd rather trade up and take the more complete receiver in Lamb or Jeudy

The thing for me with Ruggs is, even if he isn’t a star his speed will make defenses have to adjust to him.  Having Sutton and Fant opposite him creates so many opportunities that he can be a difference maker without even posting huge numbers.  His speed is special. 

[thebestever6]

4 minutes ago, IronJ said:

The thing for me with Ruggs is, even if he isn’t a star his speed will make defenses have to adjust to him.  Having Sutton and Fant opposite him creates so many opportunities that he can be a difference maker without even posting huge numbers.  His speed is special. 

See I'd rather have Mimms than Ruggs just think his ceiling is so much higher and with a 4.38 he's not exactly slow.

[IronJ]

2 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

See I'd rather have Mimms than Ruggs just think his ceiling is so much higher and with a 4.38 he's not exactly slow.

The thing with Mims is he wasn’t visable in most games I watched Baylor.  The guy stood out once in awhile but he just didn’t seem to be an impact guy when I watched them.  For whatever reason if they didn’t scheme him to get the ball he never seemed to be their main target, and if he’s a first round pick why wouldn’t they try and get him involved more?

[IronJ]

I’d actually be much more comfortable taking Justin Jefferson if we miss out on the Big3.  Every game I watched he flashed.  He can do it and has the production to back it up.  He showed elite athleticism at the combine also.  That move he put on the National title game on the sideline was Sick, he’s a good one and I wouldn’t have no problem lining him up opposite Sutton. 

[germ-x]

54 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

It's all about the price, though.  Pointing to past years isn't accurate - it depends on the demand / alternate buyers.    DEN didn't get full book value on moving down from 10 (1300 pts) to 20 (plus 52 - 1220 total points) last year because PIT was the only buyer, and they didn't mind moving back to get an O guy, where they thought he'd be.  The seller would have be OK from moving from 11 to 15, and possibly being left of the cold in that drop in tier talent.   So it's not as simple as saying "hey this is what happened last year".   Demand/other bidders/how far seller is willing to move back drives the price.      For the same reasons, teams pay well-above book prices if there are multiple bidders for the same guy / same target spot / seller isn't inclined to move that far back, and has to be blown away.   

Your scenario above at all isn't terrible, but that's far from a certainty.  And a late 3rd vs. early 3rd matters in the valuation, given the difference-makers we can find in early 3rd (but it dries up a ton later on in 3rd, unless teams reach horribly for need/other reasons, which is possible, Elway showed that in spades from 2013-7....).   But the bigger issue is the price is far from set in stone.   

No argument that it wouldn't be a reach for a top 15 spot for any of the 3.  With moving up, it's all about the price here, the player isn't in question - as the alternatives if we stay are really good, arguably equivalent - but not WR.   If you pay an insane price to move from 15 to 11....given the other alternatives at 15...well, you get the idea.

Now, if somehow there aren't 3 QB's off the board by 10 or so.....yeah, we're going to have to move up.  Unless you think Henderson is seen as equivalent to the top 3 WR (I can at least see why some ppl think he's close, but I'm not there, esp in Fangio's D), assuming the other guys are gone:

Top 4 T's (and I'm worried about Becton, but that's from a consensus opinion)

Young

Kinlaw

Simmons

Okudah

Brown (who I do worry may be the biggest bust, so I hope he's not top on the board at 15)

3 QB's

Top 3 WR's

I've been convinced by more tape that Brown and obv QB aren't the guys we want.   But those are the guys recognized to be elite difference-makers and felt top of the board.    So we're still OK at 15 even if those are the first 15 taken.  But if only 2 QB's go, then there's a drop IMO at the 1.15 spot (and yes, if Brown is falling, then we're at risk that it's at 1.14 where the drop occurs, if we don't want Brown).

If Brown is falling, or 2 QB's are the only ones gone by top 10, then yes, we should entertain moving up, even if it's above market prices....if they aren't, then the alternative of an impact guy at another position we'll eventually need for 2021+, I can live with standing pat, given how deep WR is for Rd2 (and then maybe move up Rd2 if we are worried about a run taking our next "guy" we love, as the price is way lower).

 

Historically (last 10 years anyway) it doesn’t cost an arm and a leg to make a move from #15 to #10.  The worst case scenario has been a team jumped from #16 to #11 and gave up their 2nd rounder.  Typically teams are giving a 3rd and 4th or 5th for comparable trades.  In one instance a team gave a 3rd and future 2nd to move from #15 to #8.  Obviously it depends how the board is falling and other bidders, but again historically this isn’t a break the bank type of move and if they ask for a 2 then you say no. 
 

I guess for me it boils down to I 100% believe Denver will be taking a WR between picks #10-#46.  I don’t see any other alternative that makes sense.  If they don’t take a WR at #15 then I think it’s more than likely Denver will be trading up from #46 to try and target someone they want (so trading picks you don’t want to move anyway).  I think the only scenario for Denver where you don’t trade up (if they aren’t asking too much) from #15 is if you believe there is a 4th WR that you are willing to draft at #15, like Justin Jefferson (and I’m a fan of this, he isn’t as dynamic as Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs, but he’s going to be really good for a long time) so you stay at #15 and worse case scenario draft Jefferson.  

 

[Cutler06]

20 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

If one of the three is available at 13, there’s your trade. Close relationship and 49ers need more picks (four full rounds between their 2nd and 3rd picks). Can you get that done for a fourth + a 2021 fourth? I think at worst, our last 3rd gets that done. 

One thing you can’t account for is the teams who will try to move ahead of the Broncos for one of these guys. Their love for Ruggs is the worst kept secret of this draft. 

Possibly but with Saunders going to the Saints, aren't the 49ers looking for a WR too ?? and if they can get one of the top ones, hard to pass on that as they don't have too many needs. 

[germ-x]

1 hour ago, IronJ said:

The thing for me with Ruggs is, even if he isn’t a star his speed will make defenses have to adjust to him.  Having Sutton and Fant opposite him creates so many opportunities that he can be a difference maker without even posting huge numbers.  His speed is special. 

Agreed.  Ruggs can be a guy that only catches 50-60 balls a year and goes for 1,000 yards and a handful or more TDs.  

[IronJ]

43 minutes ago, Cutler06 said:

Possibly but with Saunders going to the Saints, aren't the 49ers looking for a WR too ?? and if they can get one of the top ones, hard to pass on that as they don't have too many needs. 

I fully expect them to take a WR at 13.  They still have a stacked defensive line even after the trade with Indy.  WR is their biggest need and they are in a great spot to add a stud at 13. 

[BroncosFan2010]

I am adamant against trading up. I would prefer dealing back to 20 and getting Jefferson. He actually tested better than Lamb and Jerry and IMO his NFL.com comparison of Greg Jennings is spot on. He can feast in the slot but is clearly talented enough to play outside. 

Getting Jefferson at 20 and a big, deep threat high pointer in R3 would be ideal. Our 3WR sets could be Sutton and deep threat outside with Jefferson in the slot and Fant eating the seams. Something like Jefferson at 20 and Chase Claypool in R3. Ideally JAX wants Herbert at 15 and we can get 1.20 + 3.73 for 1.15 +7.252, or something similar. Then go:

1.20 - Justin Jefferson WR - LSU

2.46 - Lloyd Cushenberry III IOL - LSU

3.73 - Bryce Hall CB - Virginia

3.77 - Chase Claypool WR - Notre Dame

3.83 - Ashtyn Davis S - California

3.95 - Davon Hamilton DL - Ohio State

5.178 - Logan Wilson LB - Wyoming

6.181 - Colton McKivitz OL - West Virginia

That's my A+ draft right now. Plug and play starters at WR, OC, CB w/ rotation guys at WR + S + DL and two late round development players. 

[Broncofan]

 

 

 

 

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35 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Historically (last 10 years anyway) it doesn’t cost an arm and a leg to make a move from #15 to #10.  The worst case scenario has been a team jumped from #16 to #11 and gave up their 2nd rounder.  Typically teams are giving a 3rd and 4th or 5th for comparable trades.  In one instance a team gave a 3rd and future 2nd to move from #15 to #8.  Obviously it depends how the board is falling and other bidders, but again historically this isn’t a break the bank type of move and if they ask for a 2 then you say no. 
 

I guess for me it boils down to I 100% believe Denver will be taking a WR between picks #10-#46.  I don’t see any other alternative that makes sense.  If they don’t take a WR at #15 then I think it’s more than likely Denver will be trading up from #46 to try and target someone they want (so trading picks you don’t want to move anyway).  I think the only scenario for Denver where you don’t trade up (if they aren’t asking too much) from #15 is if you believe there is a 4th WR that you are willing to draft at #15, like Justin Jefferson (and I’m a fan of this, he isn’t as dynamic as Lamb/Jeudy/Ruggs, but he’s going to be really good for a long time) so you stay at #15 and worse case scenario draft Jefferson.  

 

Well you're not saying DEN should wait until 40's though - you're locking into WR at 15  or earlier no matter what.    I get it, there's an argument to be made.    As long as you recognize price matters, the rest is just quibbling.   Like you said, a 2 and that's problematic.   

To be point about referring to history, I'll counter, with an obvious example that demonstrates the opposite - Davenport cost a 1.26 AND a 1st to move up from 26 to 15.  Theoretically, that wasn't a costly move (350 points) - and the Saints paid a mint.   So you're being incredibly selective in trying to say 15 to 10.  Davenport & NO/GB shows that if one guy is in demand (Davenport is the last impact elite EDGE rusher seen that year, Harold Landry was seen as injury-prone to be elite). 

[AKRNA]

21 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

Take the BPA and be done with it.

If we were to trade up I would prefer to see it happening in R2 etc.

By the time you hit #15 though BPA gets pretty speculative.

[broncosfan_101]

5 hours ago, germ-x said:

Todd McShay came out with his updated mock today and it shows exactly why Denver needs to be aggressive in addressing the need at WR.  #15 and #46 have a chance to put Denver in no mans land when it comes to WR. 

McShay had Lamb, Jeudy, and Ruggs gone before pick #15.  Then Ayiuk, Jefferson, Higgins, Pittman, and Mims gone before #46.  McShay had Denver taking Shenault, who I like, but who also is a severe injury risk.

I’m starting to feel the same way for corners. Either we reach for Henderson at 15, or we watch him, Diggs, Gladney, Fulton, Terrell, Arnette, and Johnson go before we get to 46. Picks 15+83 might get us 26+39 from Miami (if they love Love and think he’ll be here, maybe they look at this trade-up and pick Brown or Wills at 5), and then we could grab one of Jefferson/Higgins/Aiyuk plus one of those corners, and still have 46 to really attack BPA.

[broncos67]

4 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

See I'd rather have Mimms than Ruggs just think his ceiling is so much higher and with a 4.38 he's not exactly slow.

Honestly, I'm not sure how you can realistically make that case. Ruggs has game speed, he's a sure catcher, and he shows up often. Mims didn't, granted, different offense, and while he may end up being good, it's hard for me to believe he's a better option that Ruggs right now.

[jolly red giant]

2 hours ago, AKRNA said:

By the time you hit #15 though BPA gets pretty speculative.

Outside of top 5 the draft is a bit of a crap shoot - they will have a board - stick to it - don't reach and if someone you like starts falling then you can look to move up (in R2. R3 etc - like they did with Lock).