2020 College Prospects

[BroncosFan2010]

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Honestly, I'm not sure how you can realistically make that case. Ruggs has game speed, he's a sure catcher, and he shows up often. Mims didn't, granted, different offense, and while he may end up being good, it's hard for me to believe he's a better option that Ruggs right now.

Ya, I don't really get the Mimms love. If we want a raw, arguably underperforming H/W/S talent at WR I much prefer Chase Claypool or Quez Watkins later on. 

If we want a guy that can get YAC but don't have the option to get Ruggs or Jeudy, Aiyuk is the guy. He isn't a jump ball player at all though, closer to a Percy Harvin type. 

I am really hoping the underwear Olympics pushes the other OT's above Thomas and we steal him at 15. After watching his tape I really think he could be a guaranteed pro bowl OG who can transition to OT next summer if one (Both?) of James / Bolles don't develop / stay healthy. If they do and a switch isn't necessary, your looking at the best interior in the NFL w/ Risner / Glasgow / Thomas. 

Edited March 31, 2020 by BroncosFan2010

[thebestever6]

44 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

Honestly, I'm not sure how you can realistically make that case. Ruggs has game speed, he's a sure catcher, and he shows up often. Mims didn't, granted, different offense, and while he may end up being good, it's hard for me to believe he's a better option that Ruggs right now.

So you have Ruggs as a better option than Ceedee Lamb and Jeudy? I mean he's never gotten 1000 yards in college and gets like 40 catches a year.

[BroncosFan2010]

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So you have Ruggs as a better option than Ceedee Lamb and Jeudy? I mean he's never gotten 1000 yards in college and gets like 40 catches a year.

In 11 games for West Alabama Tyreke Hill had 444 yards on 27 catches. Just sayin. 

[broncosfan_101]

On 2020-03-30 at 1:31 PM, Cutler06 said:

Try this simulator, it allows for trades as well.

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

Seriously, this is dangerous. I just had a scenario where I had Okudah, Higgins, Pittman, Uche, and Akers fall to our first 5 picks. 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

Ya, I don't really get the Mimms love. If we want a raw, arguably underperforming H/W/S talent at WR I much prefer Chase Claypool or Quez Watkins later on. 

If we want a guy that can get YAC but don't have the option to get Ruggs or Jeudy, Aiyuk is the guy. He isn't a jump ball player at all though, closer to a Percy Harvin type. 

I am really hoping the underwear Olympics pushes the other OT's above Thomas and we steal him at 15. After watching his tape I really think he could be a guaranteed pro bowl OG who can transition to OT next summer if one (Both?) of James / Bolles don't develop / stay healthy. If they do and a switch isn't necessary, your looking at the best interior in the NFL w/ Risner / Glasgow / Thomas. 

I'm with you on Thomas.   While there's no absolute guarantees, Thomas checks off all the boxes for me - elite production vs. elite competition, starter as a freshman (!), 3-year starter, and has the tools and film.   I believe he has the ability to stick at LT, RT, and while I think it's easier to find G, sure, LG too.   

Becton is a freak physically - but has technique issues and his film doesn't translate nearly as well.  And he has very limited pass pro film vs. elite competition compared to Thomas' 3 years in the SEC.  Yet ppl are mocking Becton ahead of Thomas.    It's baffling to me.

Edited March 31, 2020 by Broncofan

[germ-x]

4 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Well you're not saying DEN should wait until 40's though - you're locking into WR at 15  or earlier no matter what.    I get it, there's an argument to be made.    As long as you recognize price matters, the rest is just quibbling.   Like you said, a 2 and that's problematic.   

To be point about referring to history, I'll counter, with an obvious example that demonstrates the opposite - Davenport cost a 1.26 AND a 1st to move up from 26 to 15.  Theoretically, that wasn't a costly move (350 points) - and the Saints paid a mint.   So you're being incredibly selective in trying to say 15 to 10.  Davenport & NO/GB shows that if one guy is in demand (Davenport is the last impact elite EDGE rusher seen that year, Harold Landry was seen as injury-prone to be elite). 

I definitely don’t see Denver passing on a WR at 15 and then sitting and waiting for what’s left at #46.  It’s just too glaring a need for me to see them doing this.

Pointing to a scenario where future 1sts were involved is far more selective.  There have been 55 1st round draft trades (That only include draft picks) since 2010 and 8 have included a future 1st round pick and for the most part those are when the values really get skewed.  The majority of 1st round trades since 2010 have been relatively fair with 65% having a trade value within 100 and 41% of the time the team trading up actually wins in terms of value gained.  25% of the time these trades result in one team gaining 200+ in value and 8 of those were when a future 1st round pick was involved and 2 when a future 2nd was involved.  

Obviously there are times where a team is going to give up far more than they should, but statistically as long as you aren’t trading a future 1st or 2nd round pick the chances of really getting screwed are pretty slim.

[BroncoBruin]

I agree that 46 might not be a great spot to go WR. 

I view Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, Mims and Jefferson as first round locks. I expect most, if not all of Higgins, Shenault, Aiyuk and Reagor going late 1st through pick 45. Maybe one of those guys is still there at 46. Which other WRs would people be comfortable with taking if all of the above are off the board? 

Just go get your guy. Any of Jeudy, Lamb or Ruggs will make the offense immediately better with serious potential to skyrocket in 2021. 

 

[Broncofan]

50 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I definitely don’t see Denver passing on a WR at 15 and then sitting and waiting for what’s left at #46.  It’s just too glaring a need for me to see them doing this.

Pointing to a scenario where future 1sts were involved is far more selective.  There have been 55 1st round draft trades (That only include draft picks) since 2010 and 8 have included a future 1st round pick and for the most part those are when the values really get skewed.  The majority of 1st round trades since 2010 have been relatively fair with 65% having a trade value within 100 and 41% of the time the team trading up actually wins in terms of value gained.  25% of the time these trades result in one team gaining 200+ in value and 8 of those were when a future 1st round pick was involved and 2 when a future 2nd was involved.  

Obviously there are times where a team is going to give up far more than they should, but statistically as long as you aren’t trading a future 1st or 2nd round pick the chances of really getting screwed are pretty slim.

Statistics only project general probability though - the overall point we both agree on is that the unbalanced trade occurs when one team feels compelled to overpay because there is that "one guy" they see as the difference maker, or the seller needs to blown away to move down into another tier of talent.     

There are some arguments that we shouldn't move up, period.  I'm not quite there, because the assumption is that the draft will go as we all envision it should.   If only 2 QB's are gone by 1.10, or Derrick Brown falls hard, by 1.10 - 1.13 I'm definitely on board - as long as we're not getting killed price-wise (less likely the later we go).    If 3 QB's and Brown are off the board, though, I see the argument to stay at 15 - the argument being that we have elite tier difference makers at several positions still available.   If the price isn't crazy to move up to 13, or wherever, sure, it's going to be hard to argue it's an awful move, but I get the flip side argument completely.    

 Either way, though, it's going to be dynamic situation - and made even more so by the uncertainty that lack of visits and extra Pro Days with this draft are bringing to the Draft.  I think this is going to generate way more variation from the CW Big Board because of the lack of extra information post-Combine teams get by now.     I imagine Vegas will make a killing if teams start veering off CW on how it's all going to shake out.   For all we know, ARI could blow the Big Board out of the water and go Ruggs 1.8 (yes they have Nuk now...but hey, it's KK lol).   I imagine we're going to see a REALLY active Rd1 on Draft Night overall (not just talking about us).

Edited March 31, 2020 by Broncofan

[AKRNA]

3 hours ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

Ya, I don't really get the Mimms love. If we want a raw, arguably underperforming H/W/S talent at WR I much prefer Chase Claypool or Quez Watkins later on. 

If we want a guy that can get YAC but don't have the option to get Ruggs or Jeudy, Aiyuk is the guy. He isn't a jump ball player at all though, closer to a Percy Harvin type. 

I am really hoping the underwear Olympics pushes the other OT's above Thomas and we steal him at 15. After watching his tape I really think he could be a guaranteed pro bowl OG who can transition to OT next summer if one (Both?) of James / Bolles don't develop / stay healthy. If they do and a switch isn't necessary, your looking at the best interior in the NFL w/ Risner / Glasgow / Thomas. 

You've made the argument that really has me torn. If Thomas and one of Ruggs/Lamb/Juedy are available which one do you take?

With Thomas you've got a starting OL of Bolles, Risner, Glasgow, Thomas and James with your swing OT in Thomas and backup IOL of Schlottman/ Morris. Enough to make a guy drool.

With Ruggs et al.  you add a final piece to a young group of skill players Sutton, Fant, Lindsay, Lock that can start a full season under our new OC and grow as a unit. 2021 would look scary.

Usually with me the OL would be the choice but that would be one very hard decision. I don't think we'll get the chance personally. I can't imagine Thomas falling out of the top 10.

[BroncosFan2010]

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Usually with me the OL would be the choice but that would be one very hard decision. I don't think we'll get the chance personally. I can't imagine Thomas falling out of the top 10.

NFL to me is a league that regularly overanalyzes prospects and guys good for years drop based on this pretty often. Thomas may be a victim of this 'shiny new toy' thinking IMO. Much like Ngata was years ago, or Peat a few years back, or arguably Tunsil who was falling even before the gas-mask nonsense. 

I think a OL with Bolles / Risner / Glasgow / Thomas / James is easily enticing enough to pass on one of the WR's. 

Ideally we could take Thomas at 1.15 and then trade 2.46 + 3.77 for another FRP and take Jefferson (Who I think may also get caught in the above thinking with Mimms coming on the scene late and offering a more '#1' upside)

[Cutler06]

3 hours ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

In 11 games for West Alabama Tyreke Hill had 444 yards on 27 catches. Just sayin. 

What type of offense was West Alabama using during Hill's time there ??  Just askin' ??

[Cutler06]

1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

You've made the argument that really has me torn. If Thomas and one of Ruggs/Lamb/Juedy are available which one do you take?

With Thomas you've got a starting OL of Bolles, Risner, Glasgow, Thomas and James with your swing OT in Thomas and backup IOL of Schlottman/ Morris. Enough to make a guy drool.

With Ruggs et al.  you add a final piece to a young group of skill players Sutton, Fant, Lindsay, Lock that can start a full season under our new OC and grow as a unit. 2021 would look scary.

Usually with me the OL would be the choice but that would be one very hard decision. I don't think we'll get the chance personally. I can't imagine Thomas falling out of the top 10.

OK, I'm all in on Thomas, no WR is going to have any impact with Lock on his back.

And I'm hearing next years draft at WR is going to be BETTER than this years. Not sure if better means as deep but we can surely pick up a WR in the top 3 rounds that can bring something to this team this year and hopefully an impact WR in next years draft. 

[broncosfan_101]

34 minutes ago, Cutler06 said:

OK, I'm all in on Thomas, no WR is going to have any impact with Lock on his back.

And I'm hearing next years draft at WR is going to be BETTER than this years. Not sure if better means as deep but we can surely pick up a WR in the top 3 rounds that can bring something to this team this year and hopefully an impact WR in next years draft. 

So the issue here would be, OL is generally a more plug-and-play position for rookies, whereas WR’s take a year or two to really become consistent impact players. If 2021 is the opening of the window, it might be more prudent to grab the WR now and then BPA on the OL next year. Theoretically, you’ve got a better chance of both players peaking together.

Edited April 1, 2020 by broncosfan_101

[germ-x]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Statistics only project general probability though - the overall point we both agree on is that the unbalanced trade occurs when one team feels compelled to overpay because there is that "one guy" they see as the difference maker, or the seller needs to blown away to move down into another tier of talent.     

There are some arguments that we shouldn't move up, period.  I'm not quite there, because the assumption is that the draft will go as we all envision it should.   If only 2 QB's are gone by 1.10, or Derrick Brown falls hard, by 1.10 - 1.13 I'm definitely on board - as long as we're not getting killed price-wise (less likely the later we go).    If 3 QB's and Brown are off the board, though, I see the argument to stay at 15 - the argument being that we have elite tier difference makers at several positions still available.   If the price isn't crazy to move up to 13, or wherever, sure, it's going to be hard to argue it's an awful move, but I get the flip side argument completely.    

 Either way, though, it's going to be dynamic situation - and made even more so by the uncertainty that lack of visits and extra Pro Days with this draft are bringing to the Draft.  I think this is going to generate way more variation from the CW Big Board because of the lack of extra information post-Combine teams get by now.     I imagine Vegas will make a killing if teams start veering off CW on how it's all going to shake out.   For all we know, ARI could blow the Big Board out of the water and go Ruggs 1.8 (yes they have Nuk now...but hey, it's KK lol).   I imagine we're going to see a REALLY active Rd1 on Draft Night overall (not just talking about us).

Yes the statistics only project probability, but the probability is over a 10 year period Denver is able to move up from 15 to 10, 11, 12, 13 for a reasonably fair trade and if teams don’t want to do that hang up.  I by no means am saying do whatever to trade up, but if it’s a reasonable deal I don’t see why Denver wouldn’t pull the trigger.

I also understand that Denver basically ends up with an elite player at #15,  but I don’t think that means there shouldn’t be a trade up.  Denver has a bottom 5 WR corps in the NFL and WR is hands down the most glaring need on the roster.  Again, Tim Patrick with his career 39 catches, 533 yards, and 1 TD is the 2nd best WR on the roster.  

Trading up also isn’t a win now move.  The player in all likelihood is on the roster for the next 5 years.  Sure picks will be given up, but again if it’s a 3rd/5th, 3rd/4th, 3rd/future 3rd, Denver still has plenty of picks/assets to address other needs on the roster, none of that is even close to breaking the bank for an elite WR prospect.  That also isn’t getting into ways Denver can recoup picks by trading back (something Elway is rather good at).  

At the end of the day maybe I am in the minority, but WR is such a MASSIVE need for this offense now and into the future that sitting back and settling on a guy at #46 would leave me shaking my head.  Especially when you’re 2-3 picks within reach of an elite prospect.  

The only alternative I see and mentioned before is just to sit back at 15 and take Jefferson if the other 3 are gone.  He isn’t quite in their class, but he’s a damn good player.  Don’t have to give up any picks, still get a guy that can take heat off of Sutton and a reliable player for Lock to throw the ball too.  But the flipside is you leave a DL or OT on the board who may be graded a bit higher.

Edited April 1, 2020 by germ-x

[Cutler06]

3 hours ago, broncosfan_101 said:

So the issue here would be, OL is generally a more plug-and-play position for rookies, whereas WR’s take a year or two to really become consistent impact players. If 2021 is the opening of the window, it might be more prudent to grab the WR now and then BPA on the OL next year. Theoretically, you’ve got a better chance of both players peaking together.

I would still like to add a WR this year, with this kind of depth it makes sense. But realistically we need two WR for this offense, one which could easily flow into that 2nd spot by next year and allow us to groom the true WR2 while he becomes WR3.