2020 College Prospects

[BroncoBruin]

I need to see more from Hurts but I'll keeping a close eye on him. I didn't see an NFL QB at Bama but thy've got something going in Norman, quarterbacks are legitimately developing there. Baker and Kyler were projects who didn't look very good at all at their first stops, and within a few years were NFL ready. 

[germ-x]

20 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

I need to see more from Hurts but I'll keeping a close eye on him. I didn't see an NFL QB at Bama but thy've got something going in Norman, quarterbacks are legitimately developing there. Baker and Kyler were projects who didn't look very good at all at their first stops, and within a few years were NFL ready. 

The Oklahoma system scares the hell out of me.  Their QBs are as well protected as any in college football and the system just has wide open players almost constantly.  I remember watching the OU/OSU game with Mayfield a few years ago and literally twice in that game they only sent 2 receivers on routes and one was the RB who caught 2 wide open passes for monster gains.

Kyler while undersized is a special talent with his athleticism so I am really interested in how he develops.  Mayfield isn’t, quite honestly I don’t think Mayfield is a whole lot more physically talented than Fromm.  He’s looked AWFUL in Cleveland when having to face any pressure and had that string of games last season where he was protected and he was able to have success.  His moxy leads him to try and play like Favre/Rodgers and he just doesn’t have the talent.  He’s a rhythm/pocket passer who doesn’t want to admit it.

[carrolljcmc]

 

 

16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I can’t deny his tools but man he’s struggled in big games. The AUB game this year was a shining example.  I get he’s on a finesse team playing better trench talent vs. SEC / ACC / Big 10 or even Wazzou teams but as a contrast Darnold balled out in the big ones making big time throws.  I haven’t seen that yet with Herbert which does concern me.  He looks like a franchise QB vs. lesser talent but looks like a mental midget who won’t step into pressure or hang tough vs. the top college D’s.  He really struggled in the stretch last fall I am really going to try and see how he does this fall to see if that’s improved. 

It’s tough because he’s got the pocket passer toolset.  I hope he comes up bigger in ORE’s big games this year.   It would address the one big issue I see (processing / ability against pressure). 

I'm curious to know how you define struggling in big games. Is it merely W/L? Would you say Bo Nix won that QB "battle"?

C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Bo Nix	13/31	177	5.7	2	2	44.8

Justin Herbert

28/37

242

6.5

1

0

43.4

This doesn't include the TD drop by Addison in in the 2nd quarter, or the overall pacified play calling in the second half (I don't want to get into that game).

From PFF College entering 2019:

3. Oregon: Justin Herbert

Herbert may have regressed a bit in 2018 but that’s just because his 2017 season reached a level so high, he was bound to revert back to the mean. His two-year grade at quarterback is among the nation’s best and he still is one of the nation’s best deep-ball throwers. In fact, even with eight dropped deep passes (no returning quarterback had more than 6 dropped), he still finished with 942 yards and 13 touchdowns on throws targeted at least 20 yards downfield. He was surgical from a clean pocket last year and threw 24 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions, both of which are top figures among returners.

He's doing what he can with what he has. This year, missing 3 top targets due to injuries, and he still has better stats than most top rated QB's.

The Ducks dropped 52 passes in 2018. The incompletions cost them 832 yards from scrimmage — about 16 yards per dropped ball.

2019 stats so far:

CMP	ATT	CMP%	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	LNG	RTG
96	129	74.4	1,127	8.7	14	0	66	183.6

Edited September 24, 2019 by carrolljcmc

[Broncofan]

28 minutes ago, carrolljcmc said:

I'm curious to know how you define struggling in big games. Is it merely W/L? Would you say Bo Nix won that QB battle?

C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Bo Nix	13/31	177	5.7	2	2	44.8

From PFF College:

3. Oregon: Justin Herbert

Herbert may have regressed a bit in 2018 but that’s just because his 2017 season reached a level so high, he was bound to revert back to the mean. His two-year grade at quarterback is among the nation’s best and he still is one of the nation’s best deep-ball throwers. In fact, even with eight dropped deep passes (no returning quarterback had more than 6 dropped), he still finished with 942 yards and 13 touchdowns on throws targeted at least 20 yards downfield. He was surgical from a clean pocket last year and threw 24 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions, both of which are top figures among returners.

Serious Q - did you watch the game, or did you just peruse the stats?    Because there were at least 4-5x where Herbert could have won the game by converting a 3rd down - and came up hugely short with deer-in-headlight reads, or poor throws.  That's what I was referring to in the Darnold reference - even in the L to OSU, he was making heroic plays all game long (and one boneheaded plays).    The L to OSU did more to cement my belief in Darnold's NFL abilities because of the plays he was forced to make.  And before you cite 1 game - Herbert's stock plummeted in 2H 2018 because of the same problem for a bunch of games when scouts were watching him to see if he was worth 1.1 (back when everyone assumed he was declaring for 2019).  The tools aren't in question - does he have the NFL-level skills?  Much bigger Q.

Auburn clearly wasn't ready for ORE's speed early - and Herbert had wide open guys as a result.  Looked great in the 1Q and early 2Q.   By halftime, the AUB D made the adjustments - and Herbert's play went in the tank afterwards.    That's worrisome in a huge way.  When guys weren't wide open, Herbert didn't show the ability to throw guys open, hang in vs. pressure, or even keep eyes up with heavy pressure.  

I don't ding a QB for W/L's - but how their performance in-game matters.   Herbert's play in the 2H last year clearly regressed.    The same high-pressure weaknesses that were there in 2H 2018 were there in the AUB game - and when there were 4-5 game changing plays to be made - he whiffed on all of them.  And not just sacked with no time - he made slow reads, and awful decisions/throws.   AUB doesn't win the game if he makes even just 1-2 of those key conversions.  

Bo Nix was making his first start as a freshman - so he was OMG awful the first 2.5 quarters.     Bo Nix isn't the guy in question we're considering drafting.   Kind of a major distinction, no?  That's an awful strawman argument.

To be clear, I'm not closing the book on Herbert - but man, I want to see him step up in big games, against better teams (because the NFL D's are all better talent situations, not playing the cupcakes) - and come up with bigtime plays.  Throwing guys open, not just hitting guys open by 3-5 yards.   Hanging in vs. pressure and making the tough throw.   Making the anticipation throw before the guy is open and makes his break.  ORE's system is so hard because their speed / spread concepts get guys wide open.  It's a terrible test for the NFL to predict success.   Mariota is a terribly lazy comp, Herbert's a pure pocket passer with a little functional mobility - so I dismiss that talk.  But the critique that ORE's O system limits our ability to project NFL level success (by getting guys so open it's not even close to a test of NFL situations), well it's is a fair one.  That makes high-stakes game situations vs. equal or better talent teams critical.    There, I want to see Herbert making the NFL-level plays in big situations, in tight windows, vs. strong D's before I feel more comfortable in his projection.  And struggles against equal or lesser competition would be huge flags - but successes don't tell us much, given the jump in NFL level competition.  

Herbert had his chances last year as the projected 1.1 darling pre-season and came up woefully short in the 2H with those situations.  He came up that same way vs. AUB after they adjusted to the ORE O system after halftime.    Hopefully he'll make those plays it in the future, I just haven't seen enough of it last year or now.  I really hope we see it, more options would be awesome for us, so I want Herbert to show this, he just hasn't yet, but there's still time.   We'll see.

Edited September 24, 2019 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 9/24/2019 at 12:30 PM, Broncofan said:

Serious Q - did you watch the game, or did you just peruse the stats?    Because there were at least 4-5x where Herbert could have won the game by converting a 3rd down - and came up hugely short with deer-in-headlight reads, or poor throws.  That's what I was referring to in the Darnold reference - even in the L to OSU, he was making heroic plays all game long (and one boneheaded plays).    The L to OSU did more to cement my belief in Darnold's NFL abilities because of the plays he was forced to make.  And before you cite 1 game - Herbert's stock plummeted in 2H 2018 because of the same problem for a bunch of games when scouts were watching him to see if he was worth 1.1 (back when everyone assumed he was declaring for 2019).  The tools aren't in question - does he have the NFL-level skills?  Much bigger Q.

Auburn clearly wasn't ready for ORE's speed early - and Herbert had wide open guys as a result.  Looked great in the 1Q and early 2Q.   By halftime, the AUB D made the adjustments - and Herbert's play went in the tank afterwards.    That's worrisome in a huge way.  When guys weren't wide open, Herbert didn't show the ability to throw guys open, hang in vs. pressure, or even keep eyes up with heavy pressure.  

I don't ding a QB for W/L's - but how their performance in-game matters.   Herbert's play in the 2H last year clearly regressed.    The same high-pressure weaknesses that were there in 2H 2018 were there in the AUB game - and when there were 4-5 game changing plays to be made - he whiffed on all of them.  And not just sacked with no time - he made slow reads, and awful decisions/throws.   AUB doesn't win the game if he makes even just 1-2 of those key conversions.  

Bo Nix was making his first start as a freshman - so he was OMG awful the first 2.5 quarters.     Bo Nix isn't the guy in question we're considering drafting.   Kind of a major distinction, no?  That's an awful strawman argument.

To be clear, I'm not closing the book on Herbert - but man, I want to see him step up in big games, against better teams (because the NFL D's are all better talent situations, not playing the cupcakes) - and come up with bigtime plays.  Throwing guys open, not just hitting guys open by 3-5 yards.   Hanging in vs. pressure and making the tough throw.   Making the anticipation throw before the guy is open and makes his break.  ORE's system is so hard because their speed / spread concepts get guys wide open.  It's a terrible test for the NFL to predict success.   Mariota is a terribly lazy comp, Herbert's a pure pocket passer with a little functional mobility - so I dismiss that talk.  But the critique that ORE's O system limits our ability to project NFL level success (by getting guys so open it's not even close to a test of NFL situations), well it's is a fair one.  That makes high-stakes game situations vs. equal or better talent teams critical.    There, I want to see Herbert making the NFL-level plays in big situations, in tight windows, vs. strong D's before I feel more comfortable in his projection.  And struggles against equal or lesser competition would be huge flags - but successes don't tell us much, given the jump in NFL level competition.  

Herbert had his chances last year as the projected 1.1 darling pre-season and came up woefully short in the 2H with those situations.  He came up that same way vs. AUB after they adjusted to the ORE O system after halftime.    Hopefully he'll make those plays it in the future, I just haven't seen enough of it last year or now.  I really hope we see it, more options would be awesome for us, so I want Herbert to show this, he just hasn't yet, but there's still time.   We'll see.

I will say tonight Herbert gets to put this game into the “comes up big at key times” film.   He also did it with sloppy weather.   Not the result I’m referring to - but the throws you want to see.  
 

We will want to see more of this IMO for him to merit Rd1 consideration - but it’s a sign of real hope after last year’s failure to progress skill-wise.    
 

 

[Cutler06]

Not our biggest need but I really like RB Chuba Hubbard, guy is an explosive playmaker with size !!

[broncos67]

On 10/19/2019 at 11:52 PM, Cutler06 said:

Not our biggest need but I really like RB Chuba Hubbard, guy is an explosive playmaker with size !!

I was just saying this to a friend of mine the other day. Hubbard is awesome, he's such an explosive runner and the dude is just an all out workhorse. Would love him on this team, but I don't think they'll spend the draft capital.

I do, however, envision Denver will be grabbing a WR early. They sorely need a dynamic playmaker with the ball in his hands. Depending on how things go, I see Jerry Jeudy as a real option, but I think you need to have some idea of Lock as the guy to feel like that's in play. 

[thebestever6]

44 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

but I don't think they'll spend the draft capital.

Where's he going to fall? Because if teams value the run game it's Denver and the niners. Falcons are going to be looking rb early too.

[BroncoBruin]

Joe Burrow and Derrick Brown both make this Auburn/LSU game essential viewing. 

Derrick Brown has been a force. Burrow heating up.

 

[BroncoBruin]

Burrow has taken 3 or 4 big hits on these last two drives. Gets right back up, smiles, daps up defenders. He’s tough as hell.

These last two drives have showed a lot of the tools vs. a vicious Auburn front 4 coached by one of the best in Kevin Steele. Toughness, accuracy, ball placement, mobility to evade pressure from all angles. A lot of things the Broncos haven’t seemed to value in their scouting of QBs

[germ-x]

1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

Burrow has taken 3 or 4 big hits on these last two drives. Gets right back up, smiles, daps up defenders. He’s tough as hell.

These last two drives have showed a lot of the tools vs. a vicious Auburn front 4 coached by one of the best in Kevin Steele. Toughness, accuracy, ball placement, mobility to evade pressure from all angles. A lot of things the Broncos haven’t seemed to value in their scouting of QBs

Yeah Burrow is legit.  While none of his physical qualities “wow” they’re all above average and he brings all the intangibles.

[thebestever6]

7 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Yeah Burrow is legit.  While none of his physical qualities “wow” they’re all above average and he brings all the intangibles.

Do you think he has a chance to surpass Tua?

[germ-x]

22 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Do you think he has a chance to surpass Tua?

I think so.  I think he’s a better prospect than Tua.  Tua’s arm is so weak it’s going to be an issue in the NFL, IMO. 

[BroncoBruin]

32 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Yeah Burrow is legit.  While none of his physical qualities “wow” they’re all above average and he brings all the intangibles.

I think the arm strength is average at best but it's the only major gripe, and I'd rather sacrifice the arm strength than I would accuracy, intangibles, mobility etc. He is money under pressure. Knows how to get to whatever platform he needs to throw an accurate ball, and has the mobility to escape. That's an elite quality IMO and not one you usually count on from college QBs. 

[Broncofan]

I actually think Tua's stock is going to fall hard, because even pre-injury this season Tua didn't look remotely the same mobility-wise since last year's ankle injury.   And while he's got the arm strength, and shows really good placement at times - the fact he's losing some of the mobility/escapability that's becoming more important in QB's these days, that's going to focus on the areas that he doesn't do nearly as well in separating himself from other QB's.

Imagine if Kyler Murray wasn't so damn good at avoiding big hits - his stock would drop considerably (great arm skills, but it's his ability to extend plays and keep them alive, and use his mobility to create throwing lanes to avoid pressure, that helps overcome his size issues).   I do wonder if we'll see that with Tua on his return.   2 major injuries requiring surgery are a flag that will give teams pause - because if he is getting hurt playing on 'Bama vs. mostly inferior opposition, it raises what happens when he goes up a level in game speed, and doesn't have the same advantage in supporting cast talent.   Worth watching how he looks when he returns back from this injury.  He didn't look nearly as dangerous or elusive this season, with another injury I want to see if that's even more pronounced now.

Edited October 27, 2019 by Broncofan